shoshin

His last point is the wildcard right now. Whether the reopening NE states with currently low case counts start to rise quickly once they/we open is unknown. My hope is that the FL/TX/AZ/SoCal thing is just a result of them not having been hit hard yet. If they follow the trends elsewhere, they'd peak in 3-4 weeks on deaths--but that prediction is based on places that shutdown. Uncharted water here with states that are resisting going backwards.

Timing could be relative but so far, not much question that Germany is doing way better than us. 1500 case flare up over a few days in the entire country is a long way from panic time for DE.

Of course. Some people wear them poorly but the majority that I see look good.

My mask helps you. Are you still not getting that?

I guess you have no answer. That's cool. This happened a few weeks ago too and now again today. I tell you you're wrong and you start calling me names. Pretty immature but that's OK. You sometimes share some good data. You're better than most here even though you get crazy defensive when I point out you're wrong.

The huge spikes in Florida, Texas, and Arizona of course presaged the deaths. In some places, notably NJ it seems, but not in the states with the consistently high counts. No one is saying those states are catching up. 847,000 tests is amazing. I thought we'd be at a million a day by October--we may be at a million a day next week. Hypertension is one of the leading comorbidities for deaths. Same with diabetes. Black people are overrepresented in those populations. What's your point?

Looks like a lot of new states getting in on the high case counts. Georgia most notably but the Carolinas and Tennessee also starting to show up.

Could be lots of things. But splitting it by party is meant to sew division. 3 months ago, you had the likes of John in Jax saying FL was in great shape and look at the Dem state mess. And if you count total deaths, the D-leaning states are WAY WAY WAY behind the more R states. It's just a dumb way to look at things. We are one country. The virus isn't playing politics. People are. If you split it by states that saw spikes in march vs not, the difference is more dramatic and meaningful, and that's not politics. It just happens that many of the states that didn't get crushed initially were R states. Imagine a world where we cheered for our brothers and sisters in Florida, AZ, TX, and SoCal.

Louisiana is as far as I know, the only state with a chart like this on cases, that is, with two significant rises. The original peak was thought to be related to Mardis Gras and New Orleans. I am not sure if this rise is in the same localities in NO or elsewhere. I'm sure the county data is out there. I may gather it later.

Love the T shirts. It's one of the problems with some of the antibody tests.

Is NYC metro the only place in the US that you think the virus has burned out and reached immunity? The only place cases won't rise again? That's your speculation. I share the same thoughts especially based on last week's big number dump. What I'm asking is why no one is reporting what's happening with the new deaths. You start a lot of sentences with "I predicted" and "I said." Just wanted to look this one up. ^^ If you're going to keep taking credit for your predictions, you should say you predicted 300, not 500. No idea about your other "predictions." There would have been at least three ways for the feds to have a plan for the country: (1) The preferred way: Get all the governors together and get buy in from everyone on a plan that they'd agree to follow at a minimum. That would require consensus building, which is in short supply, but the right leader could have made it happen. (2) Withhold any one of many sources of critical fed aid unless states buy into the plan. (3) National emergency measures can trump state rights. Uh huh. You keep saying that. And I keep telling you we should be open and should never have close or maybe closed at most NYC metro and no place else for more than a couple weeks while we gave time for healthcare workers to get ready. So the above quote is your own narrative that is not representative of my positions. I don't know why you keep saying it. I present the data. You can come to any conclusion you want. I suggest some of mine but I'm not more expert than you. The media in many ways would suggest we remain in lockdown until the vaccine comes. That's absurd. We should be out and about, masked up indoors, protecting the vulnerable, schools open 100%, businesses open 100% except maybe in places where there are hospital issues (right now TX, FL, AZ, SoCal). So I guess you lied about my position again. No surprise: You seem to have a penchant for doing that. Is it just because I have had to punch some holes in your numbers. Mostly you post good stuff--no need to take it all personally. I think our positions are mostly aligned on what we should be doing policy-wise. You can have discussions about numbers without being a dick. If I started calling you names, the conversations would be a lot less productive in this thread. Keep it up if you want but it seems unnecessary.

I'd go if my wife's job didn't require her to quarantine coming beck from FL.

A fair number of these reports but they are in the minority and if anything, the symptoms on round 2 were very minor. No definitive research on how long people hold their immunity (because not much time has passed and you can't go around infecting people to see if they will get it again!). I'm not losing much sleep over these studies yet--they are likely to be overhyped.

I can't answer. Someone out there probably has written something up but it's not on top of Twitter or the news. Yesterday had 300 cases, 100 deaths. That's a super WTF ratio. That's on the dude sticking it into your wife. Most guys couldn't watch that but different strokes for different folks.

Worldometer didn't add those on that day. I don't know what is going on. Maybe it's more reclassification but I'd like someone to write about it because it's really striking. And even that's not true because lots of people have been tested twice or more, and my negative test from last week is irrelevant today. Your wife is a drama Q (do not comment!) or the person giving the test was an idiot. I've had three tests and none were anything more than awkward feeling. Zero pain. People have been talking about the salvia test and the rapid test now since March. Zero widespread usage of either one at this point.

Then I speak to others who often share this in the same way. If you posted this in April, it showed the opposite point ("Dem" leaning states were getting obliterated). But California (the most Dem state in the union) is leading the nation in Covid deaths right now. The virus doesn't care what politics anyone has. If you changed the legend from Rep and Dem to "States that were not hit hard in March and April" and "States that were hit hard in March and April" the graph would be more extreme because California would be added to the red line. The graph was constructed for one purpose: Division.

I don't know WTF is going on in NJ. Cases are super low, deaths are very high. So many inconsistent data points throughout this. The numbers don't lie but nor do they tell the clearest tale.

I think the lockdown worked more than the masks to lower cases, and lowering cases leads to less cases. But masks clearly help too. I hate them so I won't be wearing them one more minute than makes sense and/or is required.

June 18...3 weeks ago June 18? I can't believe it didn't have a HUGE impact in 3 weeks! It is not on par with the common flu unless you maybe believe only in case fatality once contacted (and even there it is more fatal in most studies). It spreads much easier so total fatalities and % hospitalized are much, much higher ESPECIALLY among older and at risk people. "On par with the common flu for the vast majority of the population" is one of the dumbest things you could say. There are over 50 million Americans age 65 or older. And I don't know how many others have the many other risk factors but certainly tens of millions if you include obesity and hypertension.

My feeling: How about when we feel confident that hospitals won't be overburdened. We see what's happening in the south. We see cases rising in many NE states. So let's keep trying to keep cases down for a bit. Some areas have been masking for what, 10 weeks so far? Others have barely even started masking. We have had seriously mixed messaging from leadership on masking with a lot of people only coming on board once their states got hit in the last couple of weeks. (Until recently, there were several posters here still saying masks are useless!) And after that, maybe we will be a touch more like Japan and people might be inclined to wear them during worse flu outbreaks.

There is ONE America not two. Lincoln was president of a war on this point. Your graph is cases but what I see is sick Americans and dead Americans, not sick red vs blue voters. I hate this crap. If you're an American and believe in America, you have empathy with Americans in pain regardless of their vote and want to help them. The first word in our country's name is the most important one.

Not rocket science but there are still unbelievers.

Simple science. Good title to this series: It's okay to be Smart. He has an episode on vaccines too but I don't want to be too extreme.

PA back on the rise. The reason they can resume normalcy in those countries and Canada is likely less because they got to herd immunity (in most of those countries, the outbreaks were geographically pretty limited) than because their cases are now so incredibly low. They had a unified plan: serious shutdown, slow reopen, complaint masking and distancing, etc. They did what we wouldn't. We are trying a different plan with long term consequences TBD but at 900 new deaths per day recently. NJ has been in the top 5 in deaths almost every day this week. I can't find any report or data to suggest a data dump but given the low cases, it has to be but I can't back that up. Someone in the media is not digging in on this. The rest are the places you'd expect with the overburdened hospitals and cases that won't go away, and that are starting to consider shutdowns and enacting them again. Overall, we have gone from 500 and less deaths per day to nearly 1000 in a week--that is some jump. Newsome never thumped his chest on CA's success. Can't say the same for DeSantis and Abbott. Was this avoidable with a single plan (see most EU countries), consistent messaging on masks and distancing, and idiots not making defeating Covid into a party-driven war? Imagine, if you will, making defeating a disease about party politics. This special kind of idiocy is something you can see play out, right here, daily, on The Twilight Zone a football discussion board.

Nope.