shoshin

Lots more visualizations in one place in this NYT article. The article notes what I was saying about the CDC data earlier this week that the tagging of causes of deaths takes a long time to trickle through the counting system. There are currently 60K deaths above the expected that have not (yet) been tagged as covid. Nothing revelatory but just good data visuals. Louisiana is an interesting chart because they got hit early and you can see their spike looks more like a NE state graph. Early, bad treatments, high viral loads, poor prevention measures, etc is why those early states go whacked. You can also see how well western states seem to have flattened their curve. There is no spike (Midwest has this but to a lesser extent).

Kids as spreaders from the Ohio DOH.

I have. I don't see the surveys and studies that support "most are medical professionals coming down on the side on "no mask." I've seen a lot of Tweet-decdotes.

Do you have links to these surveys and studies?

Not the thread for it but that’s untrue. The Russians, the criminals, the terrorists, the Leftist pedophile army, the hordes coming to burn your bibles. Plenty of fear peddling on the right too. Each side just believes their fears more. They said they did but what they gave “back” was the tuition raise in place for 2020. 3.9% of 56K.

Fear is always a strong lever to motivate humans. Let’s not kid ourselves: Trump operates it with expertise too.

My kid's freshman year at college got put online today. This after missing her missing the second half of senior year. Tough day here. It's more driven by fear than data (her college city was on its way down in every stat, reporting at less than 5% positive for a long time). The school noted that one of their problems was how long the test turnarounds are (7-15 days) and that they had planned on massive testing as part of their plan...and that with turnarounds like that, they couldn't practically keep to their plan. I don't see this as being about beating Trump, though more of those living in fear are on the side of Biden.

Ha! You engaged in whataboutism when you brought up Obama and Clinton. We all do it but it's weak and doesn't advance the topic on the table.

The viral load research on Covid is early and not definitive. I wouldn't put a lot of weight on that conclusion yet, your exaggerated response notwithstanding. Bad news gets eyeballs. Not exactly news. I'm sure the Cuomo mentions are way down since April too. Edit...in fact, they are: "Covid" tracks the cases/deaths almost perfectly.

If they were smart, they'd open now, especially now that we know so many better treatment protocols. Their hospitals should not be overwhelmed. It'll be a curious week to see if post-storms, we are level or drop. I don't think we'll see another rise above where we are right now until this is over. The only thing that could change that is the fall/winter and if there's a seasonal rise. Watching what happens in the states where colleges and schools open will be informative. I'm not worried about the kids--but I wonder if there will be any spread increase. In the EU, they have not had a problem in schools. Even if we see a small rise, I don't think we'll ever get back to our current levels. (But of course, none of us knows.)

Your obsession with me is odd and spreading this particular lie is stranger. I believe every state should be open, including all schools. I think the long term economic and human fallout of closings is much worse than what we save by closures. I expect we will establish a long term leveling/slow decline by about mid-September. We flattened the curve enough a long time ago. I suspect that you think those positions are not held by the "mainstream analysis," whatever that is. My mainstream belief is that I do believe masks work to slow the spread. Oh, and I've got that crazy belief in vaccines. So maybe stop lying about me just because I poke holes in your numbers sometimes. We agree on the politics on this a lot.

Obama and Clinton remarks about other topics don't seem relevant to Trump's remark about Covid in the Covid thread. In other news, I shared information on the TB vaccine earlier and how it might help against Covid-19. And there's the continuing good news on masks lowering viral load and the impact of this on illness (sorry anti-maskers, you can skip this). Both preliminary but the TB correlation seems high and I've had a doctor friend talking about the mask/viral load thing since April (he's an ENT and this has been his concern, ie, his load exposure when he does a head/neck procedures on a Covid patient is much higher). https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/11/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html I do a lot of business in Sweden. Not one of my clients and contacts in Sweden has gone to the office since April. And they have natural distancing in the fact that a huge % of the younger pop lives alone. And it has one of the higher per capita death rates in the world. So...they did shut down, and they have not had great success. I looked it up but I have never heard of Andorra.

At the time, there was news that surface disinfectants could kill the virus. He was clearly suggesting that they look into injecting that into people. It was just ill informed. The backbending to defend this by comparing it to chemotherapy is silly. It is not the end of the world that he did this. It was just one of his gaffes borne of his world class narcissism that makes him think he’d know more than the scientists and suggest something that is actually pretty moronic.

Use the actual vs historically predicted. The total deaths is higher than the norm but the EXCLUDING COVID data may also include all the uncharacterized deaths, that is, the deaths that the CDC has not yet sorted. For instance, the CDC currently recognizes 145K deaths to date from Covid but the accepted number is ~165K. Looking at the data below, the CDC May still have 20K deaths to move from the green bar to the blue bar across the US, most of those in TX/FL/CA...which will unsurprisingly make Covid look like the main culprit for deaths being above the historical norm. Back to the point, take a look at Texas: The death spike in "non-Covid" (what I'd guess is really just not yet Covid-categorized) occurs at the same time as the Covid deaths rise (June). Florida is similar where the non-covid deaths exceed the average right when the Covid deaths spike up (though Florida's last data bar looks weird). There are non-Covid deaths happening too but Covid is the main cause of the death rise above the norm.

The flu comes every year. Covid is killing people in a new way. After 3 months of peak flu season, we had 16000 deaths. We've had 16000 deaths in ~the last two weeks from Covid. Flu IFR based on those numbers is 0.05%. Covid is 10x that. Flu hospitalizations were 280,000 as of Feb. There have been single days with over 60K people in the hospital from Covid. So, we have a brand new disease, with a much higher death toll, much more fatal, and it sends people to the hospital at a far higher rate. That's why the flu isn't getting reported on.

Can see a little uptrend in the last few days on testing and cases, maybe the result of test delays or weather. It's more obvious in the CA data that I can't paste due to size) https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california

Cool chart. On my phone but I’ll check it out later. I quote the 2-3 comorbidity thing all the time. Of course Covid is killing at risk folk more. And it’s having a likely worse effect through the lockdowns and general fear. You keep arguing without me like I don’t believe that just because I’ve proven you wrong on a few posts. I think the lock down and fear are much worse than the virus. Much worse. You are still defaulting to douche way of having a discussion for some reason.

And how do you then explain the spike in deaths compared to the average expected? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

I don't think anyone mourns good news except people who get paid to write headlines at CNN/FOX. Bad news always sells, ever since Irv Weinstein was leading Eyewitness News with coverage of the .22 caliber killer in the 70s. Italy, NY Metro, Spain all got hit early when our treatments were often exactly wrong. Germany, Florida, many other places have more comparable statistics and are predictive of trends for places that haven't yet been hit. We will level out as a country in the coming weeks and then have a couple potential inflection points: schools opening and winter. Neither of those, I would think, will cause a spike. But we might see some rises in cases from them.

Due to size restrictions, can't paste CA and TX but they have similar shapes to FL.

These kinds of assertions don't lead to any productive discussion. These kinds of assertions don't lead to any productive discussion. Uhh, have you been reading here? A very small minority of posters believe masks make any difference. That's good. I am in the company of teachers lately for some reason and they are all freaking out.

Where have I been scared? I don't think we should have ever shut down except in NYC. I haven't stopped living. I want my kid in a school that's not all screwed up this fall. The graph was about bed availability...the mayor's quote was about exponentially rising cases. The data shown from SETAC was thus not the data being discussed in the Tweet. Also as we know, some hospitals hit capacity in Houston. But it's turning out "fine," just like it will elsewhere. "Fine" being a relative state. You can't be serious. The left is addicted to the panic around this in the same way the right thinks it's no big deal.

I disagree. Painting broadly between the parties, the left is really latched onto the panic and the right has a macho "it's no big deal" thing. Both are pretty moronic.

Obviously I agree that the panic porn is a problem and a huge one. You can't hear me say that because you get really upset when I point out errors and misleading statements in your Twitter-pastes, which I don't always do but you've been misleading a few times quoting data. That's why I usually repeat the actual source data when I can and not the Twitter-takes. I shared the SETAC data originally, and that area of Texas managed their hosp capacity well, probably by shifting a lot of surgeries and other care to a later date. That's not great but it's what they had to do because their CV19 bed usage more than tripled in a period 6 weeks. There's no reason to think other places can't do that same.