shoshin

A UV light that disinfects surfaces (not new technology) is different from one that goes inside the body (Trump's "idea"). I'm not sure if you knew that so I just wanted to point that out.

That IFR estimate is not the US number. Here's the footnote in full. Just FYI--still interesting. † These estimates are based on age-specific estimates of infection fatality ratios from Hauser, A., Counotte, M.J., Margossian, C.C., Konstantinoudis, G., Low, N., Althaus, C.L. and Riou, J., 2020. Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: a modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe. PLoS medicine, 17(7), p.e1003189. Hauser et al. produced estimates of IFR for 10-year age bands from 0 to 80+ year old for 6 regions in Europe. Estimates exclude infection fatality ratios from Hubei, China, because we assumed infection and case ascertainment from the 6 European regions are more likely to reflect ascertainment in the U.S. To obtain the best estimate values, the point estimates of IFR by age were averaged to broader age groups for each of the 6 European regions using weights based on the age distribution of reported cases from COVID-19 Case Surveillance Public Use Data (https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/COVID-19-Case-Surveillance-Public-Use-Data/vbim-akqf). The estimates for persons ≥70 years old presented here do not include persons ≥80 years old as IFR estimates from Hauser et al., assumed that 100% of infections among persons ≥80 years old were reported. The consolidated age estimates were then averaged across the 6 European regions. The lower bound estimate is the lowest, non-zero point estimate across the six regions, while the upper bound is the highest point estimate across the six regions.

Yesterday seems like the first non holiday Tuesday under 1000 deaths since June. Just a number but I’d love to think we were done with quadruple digit deaths.

Sweden did it "right" in that they stayed open IMO. But we are not Sweden. They are less populous, less densely populated, have a high population of people living alone, healthier, etc. Our outcomes, even if we did exactly what they did, are already worse and would have been worse. We aren't Sweden. We aren't India.

It's not too dangerous to vote in person. It's dangerous for *some people* to vote in person. Oh, and in many states, voting by mail is legal so anyone can do it any time and in the year of a pandemic, that would seem like a good time. They said the same about India in the summer.

Agreed: Get the administration out of the CDC. The admin politicized the CDC and it's a disgrace.

That's a pretty twisted reading. NV restricted RX HCQ because it wasn't deemed effective. They just let the regulation expire, nothing more than that. There's not always a hidden agenda.

That is not what that chart shows. look again.

She was a titan of a human and a model of dignity and decency. I loved reading about her close friendship with Scalia in a few Scalia bios. RE PPP, there’s a thread about its positive contributions to TBD over there.

I critiqued a poster for his lack of decency here in this thread. I discussed PPP’s purpose and future in a thread about that. They were two different discussions. One is about being a decent human being. One is about what this forum adds to TBD.

I do. You should go read my Herman Cain post where I said he deserved better than to made use of as a footnote to a trump rally, which as Meazza clarified was not his intent and to which I apologized for interpreting him incorrectly. You chose to not be decent. Your choice in a free world. Different issue and there was a time and place to talk about that and I expect this board did. You get to chose if you’re decent or not now. Or now. Or now. Less than 24 hours from her death, now? Am I not free to critique boorish behavior and hope for better? Is that outside the PPP code?

*** Good Charts at link too. https://www.wsj.com/articles/death-toll-from-covid-19-pandemic-extends-far-beyond-virus-victims-11600507800?st=9idsdlqxszoo8q0&reflink=article_copyURL_share The CDC estimates there were somewhere between about 202,000 and 263,000 excess deaths in the U.S. this year through late August, measured against deaths from 2017 through 2019. The U.S. by that point had about 188,000 known Covid-19 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins. In New York City, the citywide death count surged by 35,000 in the most recent fiscal year, far exceeding the 19,142 confirmed and 4,625 probable virus-related deaths, authorities said Thursday. “We had no experience with this sort of thing, really,” Mr. Anderson said, regarding the pandemic. “The more we can learn about how things played out here and how the virus impacted mortality—not just directly, but indirectly—can help us God forbid we have another one of these.” The CDC estimates there were somewhere between about 202,000 and 263,000 excess deaths in the U.S. this year through late August, measured against deaths from 2017 through 2019. The U.S. by that point had about 188,000 known Covid-19 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins. In New York City, the citywide death count surged by 35,000 in the most recent fiscal year, far exceeding the 19,142 confirmed and 4,625 probable virus-related deaths, authorities said Thursday.

The time to use her death as a PPP punchline is not within hours of it. But you got your moment in the sun in a political thread on a football board. Bravo.

Stay classy PPP.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/16/dementia-deaths-coronavirus-nursing-homes-416530 Deaths attributed to Alzheimer’s disease and dementia rose to more than 20 percent above normal over the summer, a staggering figure that won’t factor into the official count of coronavirus deaths but is unmistakably linked to the pandemic’s true toll. Increased isolation and stress during lockdown, lapses in nursing home care and missed Covid-19 diagnoses are all likely contributing factors to the unusually high dementia death toll, adding to the devastation the virus has brought to U.S. nursing homes.

Lots of chatter here about look at how blue states kill more people than red so this is a ghoulishly appropriate data slice.

Ditto. I haven't seen that vid since but the one view when they came back from commercial showed it really clearly. Then they went back to.showing the behind Bass shot, which was less clear.

Pandemic is determined by the numbers. We have an excess of deaths well above the pandemic threshold ergo pandemic.

Plenz seems ok and we should afford everyone civility and kindness. There’s plenty of anonymous dickishness online and in the world.

In your previous post you compared NY city to Jersey so I gave you the numbers to show you were wrong. Now you want to change the comparison. Of course it shows something different. Outside NYC metro, NY did fine. Plenz seems ok and we should afford everyone civility and kindness.

His chart shows deaths not cases. Let’s aim for some civility. No one here is an epidemiologist.

There have been two death spikes? Nowhere yet thankfully. That shows nowhere had two spikes. Even if you dive in on say, CA, you see that it had two regional rises. There's almost no chance of another April. We've not seen that chaos twice anyplace in the world that got hit once.

If deaths spike in a place where they were high before, I'll be shocked.

NYC has 23K deaths for 8.4M people...NJ has 16K deaths for 8.9M people. Back in April, the NY Metro Covid footprint was pretty much one blob that extended from northern NJ to CT and the whole zone was awful. Here in September, it's almost already hard to remember how bad things were on transmission and deaths back then. I watched NJ hard for a personal reason and almost nothing was happening in NJ except in the northern counties, which were getting blasted.

NYC complied with a lockdown after it was already screwed, back when you couldn't even buy masks, and before we had agreed-upon effective treatments (back then, they were still putting patients on their backs and thought ventilators were a good idea...and were just throwing random drugs at people and praying). There is also not one single city in America like NYC. It's different in density and lifestyle from every city in America. The lesson for how to treat a pandemic in NYC in April is not the lesson for how you treat a pandemic in Atlanta in July. We should look at the death toll, survival and hospitalization rates, and other Covid statistics after mid-May to predict how Covid will impact places not yet impacted. As to why you don't know anyone who died from it and all that, I can't speak to your experience and where you live. 200,000 deaths, mostly elderly, is not some small number but spread across 330,000,000 Americans, it's not large either. My wife works with older people and she knows many. Depends on the populations you know and work with.