Ozymandius

Updated to reflect how Bills can control own destiny heading into Week 17 Updated to reflect what outcomes can reduce the importance of the Jets-Miami game Up front disclaimer: YES I know the Bills need to beat the Titans or none of this matters. Now shaddup! Having said that, in case you were wondering what other games impact the Bills playoff chances, well here's a list. The discussion threads for this list are here and here and here and here. For the "importance" rankings, anything ranked 5 or higher would be a devastating blow to lose. The only 10 or absolute must-win is Bills beating Titans. Dolphins beating Jets is a 9, though. Everything below a 5 is a nice-to-have but not necessary. HOME team in CAPS Sunday 1:00 BILLS beat Titans (Importance = 10) a) Duh! b) this is 1st of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17 Sunday 1:00 Patriots beat JAGUARS (Importance = 4) a) Bills chasing Jaguars for a wild-card spot b) this is 2nd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17 c) Jaguars loss here reduces the importance of the Jets-Miami game ***OR*** JAGUARS beat Patriots (Importance = 2) a) this is 1st of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. It is also the least important of the 4 outcomes because it only affects whether the Ravens must beat the Bills to secure a #3 seed instead of a #4 seed, which they might consider to be an unimportant distinction. If the other three purple outcomes occur, Ravens have no chance to play for a bye or home field in Week 17. Whether you root for NE or Jax may depend on your confidence in KC beating Jax at Arrowhead Week 17 and your confidence in Bills beating what could be a motivated Ravens team playing for a #3 seed. Keep in mind we might need KC to beat Jax to eliminate Denver anyway so having NE also beat Jax is perhaps extraneous. Sunday 1:00 Colts beat TEXANS (Importance = 3) a) this is 2nd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Note that if Texans upset the Colts, it would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams the Bills have beaten such as Houston to win, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 1:00 STEELERS beat Ravens (Importance = 3) a) this is 3rd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. Sunday 1:00 Buccaneers beat BROWNS (Importance = 1) a) would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams Cincy has beaten such as the Browns to lose, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 1:00 GIANTS beat Saints (Importance = 1) a) would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams Cincy has beaten such as the Saints to lose, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 1:00 FALCONS beat Panthers (Importance = 1) a) would help a little bit towards the Bills winning a tiebreaker with Cincy because we want teams Cincy has beaten such as the Panthers to lose, but we should have this "strength of victory" tiebreaker covered even without this game. Sunday 4:00 49ERS beat Cardinals (Importance = 2) a) want 49ers to stay in NFC division and wild-card chase so they are motivated to beat Denver Week 17 (unlikely anyway, I know) Sunday 4:00 Bengals beat BRONCOS (Importance = 4) a) Broncos loss here DRAMATICALLY reduces the importance of the Jets-Miami game and DRAMATICALLY increases the importance of Bengals-Steelers in Week 17 (which we would need Pittsburgh to win). I'm leaning towards rooting for the Bengals to beat the Broncos because a Denver win followed by a Jets win virtually knocks us out of the playoffs unless the 49ers can beat the Broncos in Mile High Week 17. I just do not trust SF there and I do not trust Miami to beat the Jets. ***OR*** BRONCOS beat Bengals (Importance = 2) a) this is 3rd of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17. Sunday 4:00 Chargers beat SEAHAWKS (Importance = 3) a) this is 4th of 4 outcomes that must occur for Ravens-Bills game to mean nothing to Ravens. b) keeps 49ers in the division race in case we need them to beat Denver Week 17 (unlikely anyway, I know) Monday DOLPHINS beat Jets (Importance = 9) a) Bills chasing Jets in wild-card race. Need Jets to lose this one so Bills can win tiebreaker with them. Bills can not pass Jets if they win here. A Jets loss opens up WAY more options to make playoffs. b) this is 4th of 4 outcomes that must occur for Bills to control own destiny heading into Week 17

Dude, just mind your own business. A bunch of us are excited so we worked out the playoff scenarios. And if you've been following them, you would know that it's NOT "high improbable" for the Bills to make the playoffs. Just unlikely. We're excited. Let us be.

I posted this in another thread. Updated -- The Definitive "Way for the Week 17 Game to be Meaningless for the Ravens" In an attempt to answer my own question about how to make that game meaningless, I am first listing the records, conference records, and remaining schedule for the teams Baltimore is competing with for seeding. This is a long post, but to make a long story short, there is a way for Baltimore to be LOCKED IN to the #3 seed without any chance of improvement or slippage going into the Week 17 game against us. Therefore, they would be able to rest their starters. In order for this to happen, five games have to go our way, which I list at the bottom. However, all 5 teams are favored by Vegas to win. SD: 12-2, 10-2 AFC, @Sea/Ari Ind: 10-3, 7-2 AFC, Cin/@Hou/Mia Bal: 11-3, 8-2 AFC, @Pit/Buf NE: 10-4, 6-4 AFC, @Jax/@Ten First, comparing SD to Baltimore....If next week SD beats Seattle and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (both are Vegas favorites), then the #1 seed is no longer in play for Baltimore because SD would be 13-2 and Baltimore would be 11-4 with one game remaining. Next, comparing NE to Baltimore...If next week Jax beats NE and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (again, both are Vegas favorites), then it is impossible for NE to catch Baltimore in seeding because NE's conference record would be 6-5 and Baltimore's would be 8-3 with one game remaining. (Note: we learned from the previous posts above that we need KC to beat Jax much more than we need NE to beat Jax. We can actually root for Jax to win next week as long as KC beats Jax the following week in Arrowhead) Finally, comparing Indy to Baltimore...this is the most complicated because it involves the third tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents. If Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and beats Houston next week (Colts favorites in both), the Colts will be 12-3/9-2. If next week Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, the Ravens would be 11-4/8-3, leaving the possibility that both Indy and Balt could still finish 12-4/9-3. The key is the NEXT tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents, which Indy has the advantage in, if both teams should finish 12-4/9-3. If Indy beat the Bengals, the Colts would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Ravens would be 2-2 with the Bills game pending. Obviously 3-2 would not beat 4-1, so the Ravens would have no reason to beat the Bills if they lose to Pittsburgh next week and Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and Houston next week. To summarize, if you want to root for our Week 17 game with Baltimore to be meaningless for the Ravens...root for the following to happen in Week 16: (1) Indy to beat Cincy tomorrow, then (2) Indy to beat Houston (3) Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore (4) SD to beat Seattle (5) Jacksonvile to beat New England ??? (question marks because we need Jax to lose eventually and we would be risking that KC beats them them in Week 17 at Arrowhead) Five games is tough, but all those teams are Vegas favorites.

I hear ya bro. I just wanted people to realize there is a way for that Baltimore game to be meaningless for the Ravens.

Repost for Update: Updated -- The Definitive "Way for the Week 17 Game to be Meaningless for the Ravens" In an attempt to answer my own question about how to make that game meaningless, I am first listing the records, conference records, and remaining schedule for the teams Baltimore is competing with for seeding. This is a long post, but to make a long story short, there is a way for Baltimore to be LOCKED IN to the #3 seed without any chance of improvement or slippage going into the Week 17 game against us. Therefore, they would be able to rest their starters. In order for this to happen, five games have to go our way, which I list at the bottom. However, all 5 teams are favored by Vegas to win. SD: 12-2, 10-2 AFC, @Sea/Ari Ind: 10-3, 7-2 AFC, Cin/@Hou/Mia Bal: 11-3, 8-2 AFC, @Pit/Buf NE: 10-4, 6-4 AFC, @Jax/@Ten First, comparing SD to Baltimore....If next week SD beats Seattle and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (both are Vegas favorites), then the #1 seed is no longer in play for Baltimore because SD would be 13-2 and Baltimore would be 11-4 with one game remaining. Next, comparing NE to Baltimore...If next week Jax beats NE and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (again, both are Vegas favorites), then it is impossible for NE to catch Baltimore in seeding because NE's conference record would be 6-5 and Baltimore's would be 8-3 with one game remaining. (Note: we learned from the previous posts above that we need KC to beat Jax much more than we need NE to beat Jax. We can actually root for Jax to win next week as long as KC beats Jax the following week in Arrowhead) Finally, comparing Indy to Baltimore...this is the most complicated because it involves the third tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents. If Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and beats Houston next week (Colts favorites in both), the Colts will be 12-3/9-2. If next week Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, the Ravens would be 11-4/8-3, leaving the possibility that both Indy and Balt could still finish 12-4/9-3. The key is the NEXT tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents, which Indy has the advantage in, if both teams should finish 12-4/9-3. If Indy beat the Bengals, the Colts would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Ravens would be 2-2 with the Bills game pending. Obviously 3-2 would not beat 4-1, so the Ravens would have no reason to beat the Bills if they lose to Pittsburgh next week and Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and Houston next week. To summarize, if you want to root for our Week 17 game with Baltimore to be meaningless for the Ravens...root for the following to happen in Week 16: (1) Indy to beat Cincy tomorrow, then (2) Indy to beat Houston (3) Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore (4) SD to beat Seattle (5) Jacksonvile to beat New England ??? (question marks because we need Jax to lose eventually and we would be risking that KC beats them them in Week 17 at Arrowhead) Five games is tough, but all those teams are Vegas favorites.

Updated -- The Definitive "Way for the Week 17 Game to be Meaningless for the Ravens" In an attempt to answer my own question about how to make that game meaningless, I am first listing the records, conference records, and remaining schedule for the teams Baltimore is competing with for seeding. This is a long post, but to make a long story short, there is a way for Baltimore to be LOCKED IN to the #3 seed without any chance of improvement or slippage going into the Week 17 game against us. Therefore, they would be able to rest their starters. In order for this to happen, five games have to go our way, which I list at the bottom. However, all 5 teams are favored by Vegas to win. SD: 12-2, 10-2 AFC, @Sea/Ari Ind: 10-3, 7-2 AFC, Cin/@Hou/Mia Bal: 11-3, 8-2 AFC, @Pit/Buf NE: 10-4, 6-4 AFC, @Jax/@Ten First, comparing SD to Baltimore....If next week SD beats Seattle and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (both are Vegas favorites), then the #1 seed is no longer in play for Baltimore because SD would be 13-2 and Baltimore would be 11-4 with one game remaining. Next, comparing NE to Baltimore...If next week Jax beats NE and Pittsburgh beats Baltimore (again, both are Vegas favorites), then it is impossible for NE to catch Baltimore in seeding because NE's conference record would be 6-5 and Baltimore's would be 8-3 with one game remaining. (Note: we learned from the previous posts above that we need KC to beat Jax much more than we need NE to beat Jax. We can actually root for Jax to win next week as long as KC beats Jax the following week in Arrowhead) Finally, comparing Indy to Baltimore...this is the most complicated because it involves the third tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents. If Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and beats Houston next week (Colts favorites in both), the Colts will be 12-3/9-2. If next week Pittsburgh beats Baltimore, the Ravens would be 11-4/8-3, leaving the possibility that both Indy and Balt could still finish 12-4/9-3. The key is the NEXT tiebreaker of winning percentage against common opponents, which Indy has the advantage in, if both teams should finish 12-4/9-3. If Indy beat the Bengals, the Colts would be 4-1 against common opponents and the Ravens would be 2-2 with the Bills game pending. Obviously 3-2 would not beat 4-1, so the Ravens would have no reason to beat the Bills if they lose to Pittsburgh next week and Indy beats Cincy tomorrow and Houston next week. To summarize, if you want to root for our Week 17 game with Baltimore to be meaningless for the Ravens...root for the following to happen in Week 16: (1) Indy to beat Cincy tomorrow, then (2) Indy to beat Houston (3) Pittsburgh to beat Baltimore (4) SD to beat Seattle (5) Jacksonvile to beat New England ??? (question marks because we need Jax to lose eventually and we would be risking that KC beats them them in Week 17 at Arrowhead) Five games is tough, but all those teams are Vegas favorites.

Thanks for the work, guys. Now, here's a challenge. What will need to happen for the Week 17 game to be meaningless for the Ravens?

Our talent is still in the bottom 10 of the league, and we've been overachieving thanks to chemistry and Jauron. If we don't improve our talent this offseason, next season will be as disappointing as this season has been surprising.

Did ANYBODY read this thread title and not think about sex with a virgin?

Pretty sure the braintrust does not regard Sands as a Tampa-2 tackle. We will almost certainly get another DT, but he's going to be around 300 pounds. Watch out for Glenn Dorsey, a former teammate of Kyle Williams, if he declares.

Yep. Preston needs to be replaced with a roadgrading OG if the Bills want to ever have a consistent running game. I would go ahead and kick Pennington to the curb, too, but I'm not sure the Bills have the resources (draft picks, $$$) to afford to not give him a chance to develop because he does have upside due to strength / body size. OG needs to be upgraded, though, because it's relatively cheap to do so (say, a second rounder, if we go the draft route).

I think it's just coincidence and won't last.

USC has the more talented team and better overall coaching (in college, Pete Carroll is a stud), they're just not as experienced as Michigan.

Our TEs suck.

Tampa-2 was just as much Marv's idea, too.

Because I could be wrong. Just like everyone was wrong about UCLA. It's interesting to look at which states voted for Fla or Michigan: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/fp/flashPol...ge&pollId=41239 I think Ohio is afraid of a Michigan rematch.

Just like how USC-UCLA should've been a laugher, right? Look, I think Michigan is better than Florida as well, but there is no question in my mind that Florida deserves the chance to beat OSU that Michigan already got.

I don't think the Bills expect to re-sign Nate. That offseason agreement to not franchise him was just strange. I think they realize he's going to become the top paying corner (or very close) and they either can't or won't afford it. Read between the lines of this article, too. http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20061...?tbd1019024.asp "I'm getting married this offseason, I've got a little daughter and we're trying to build a home and a family, so I have other important stuff to worry about. The chips are definitely going to fall where they may." My guess is Clements' fiance doesn't want to stay in Buffalo. This doesn't mean the Bills can't find another FA corner on the market. How about stealing Asante Samuel away from the Patriots? I think they should go after Daniel Graham as well. Weaken your division foe while helping yourself.

To be honest, I don't expect the Bills to be able to sign either Clements or Steinbach. We're talking about the premier FA corner and the premier FA guard, and these days EVERY team is under the cap enough to have money to throw around. Until Buffalo starts winning consistently, we won't be a desirable location for the cream of the crop.

Watch out for Eric Parker. He's one guy who I haven't seen mentioned yet but he'd be our second best receiver if he were on our team. They have more than Gates and LT, unfortunately.

Have the Ravens even taken one shot downfield yet? Might be a good idea.

By pointing out that you're trying a reverse jinx, you ruined its potency. It will not work now. You should have just predicted a Chargers victory without explaining yourself and been a man and taken all the flames that would've come your way. In the end, it would've paid off with a Bills win and then you could have come back later and explained yourself. But by cowardly pointing out what you were doing right away in order to avoid flames, you have resigned the Bills to a loss against the Chargers this week. Congratulations!

If the Bills win, I really doubt the score will be like 16-13. It's going to be something like 30-27.

Linemen with runstopping talent. The players you listed are either linebackers or they are linemen whose best skill is getting after the QB. We need some linemen who can hold their ground at the point of attack.

We need a difference maker at DT. Right now we're probably the worst team in the league at stopping the run, or if we're not 32, then we're 31 or 30. We need to add a very talented runstopper to significantly alter that and it doesn't look like this person will be available in free agency. McCargo was drafted to be a gapshooter playmaker, not a stout runstopper, and KW, while scrappy, probably will always be limited in that area by his body potential.