Ozymandius

I have updated the original post to reflect what outcomes can reduce the importance of the Jets-Miami game. These outcomes are in green.

Don't underestimate the impact of poor coaching and team morale.

I have updated the original post to include how the Bills can control their own destiny heading into Week 17. The outcomes are in red. Essentially, Bills control their own destiny if: 1. Colts beat Bengals tonight 2. Bills beat Titans 3. Dolphins beat Jets 4. Broncos beat Bengals 5. Patriots beat Jaguars

Okay, so we can't win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver. And we can't win a 2-team tiebreaker with Denver. So that makes it very important that KC finishes 9-7 just in case Denver finishes 9-7.

Ahhh. Good call. I forgot to count the Baltimore game as common.

Nope. It actually is impossible. The reason is there is no outcome of the Cincy-Denver game that could keep the Bills in the hunt (either team wins, or a tie kill us).

Nice. I am playing against Marvin but I hope he has 3 TDs tonight. You know something? I'm probably wrong about there being 0 scenarios. It's possible but just very unlikely. Hold on.

That's correct. It is impossible (0 scenarios) for the Bills to make the playoffs if Cincy wins tonight and the Jets beat Miami.

One scenario I haven't seen mentioned yet is: Can Buffalo win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver without KC around to knock out Denver? The answer I come up with is: I think so. I might need some help with this one, ezbills and others. If Jacksonville makes the playoffs by beating both NE and KC to finish 10-6, and then the following happened: - Miami beats Jets to knock out Jets - Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh - Denver loses to Cincy and beats SF That leaves Buff, Cincy, and Denver all at 9-7/7-5. Cincy would have head-to-head against Denver but that isn't applicable since the Bills didn't play either team. Conference record is even for all at 7-5. Now here's the key. The next tiebreaker is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four." Does this mean common games between all three teams? If that is the case, then this tiebreaker is not applicable because there hasn't been four common games between all three clubs. However, if they apply this tiebreaker by matching the teams head-to-head in twosomes, then Denver would defeat Cincy in this tiebreaker and Denver would defeat Buffalo in this tiebreaker. Therefore, Denver would get the wildcard. However, I think "common games" must apply to all three teams in this scenario (similar to how Cincy's win over Denver isn't applicable unless they beat Buffalo also). Therefore, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, where Buffalo owns Denver even worse than Cincy. So, I think under this scenario where Jacksonville makes the playoffs and KC isn't around to knockout Denver, we can win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver.

Great point about the non-exclusive franchise tag, Senator.

No problem, bro. Bills should have the tiebreaker advantage over Cincy if we both finish 9-7, going by my projections above. In that case, one scenario to get the #5 seed would be: Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh Jets lose to Miami KC beats Oakland and Jax In that scenario, Bills get #5 seed, Cincy gets #6 seed (Denver drops out to KC and Jets drop out to Bills under divisional tiebreakers, KC drops out to both Bills and Cincy due to lesser conference record, and then Cincy drops out to Bills due to aforementioned strength of victory tiebreaker). Then: (1) Buff beats New England (2) Cincy beats Baltimore (3) Buff beats Indy (4) Cincy beats SD (5) Buff hosts AFC championship game against Cincy, beats them (6) Buff wins Super Bowl against Saints

chaz, if Cincy loses 2 of 3, they will have a 7-5 conference record, same as Buffalo.

ezbills - good link. Since that was the original original tiebreaker thread, I have added it to my Week 16 rooting post. As for the Cincy/Bills tiebreaker... I've tried estimating it right here Buffalo victories with projected wins for those teams: 1. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for) 2. Minnesota, 6-8, @GB/vs Stl..... 7 wins 3. GB, 6-8, vs Min/@Chi..... 7 or 8 wins (Chi has nothing to play for) 4. Hou, 4-10, vs Indy/vs Cle..... 4 or 5 wins 5. Jax, 8-6, vs NE/at KC..... 8 or 9 wins 6. Jets, 8-6, at Mia/vs Oak..... 9 wins 7. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for) 8. Ten, 7-7, at Buf/vs NE..... 7 or 8 wins (NE should have nothing to play for) 9. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins Buffalo's projected strength of victory: 67 to 73 wins Cincy's victories with projected wins for those teams: 1. KC, 7-7, at Oak/vs Jax..... 9 wins 2. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins 3. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins 4. Car, 6-8, at Atl/at NO..... 6 or 7 wins (NO might have nothing to play for) 5. NO, 9-5, at NYG/vs Car..... 10 or 11 wins (NO might have nothing to play for vs Car) 6. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins 7. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins 8. Oak, 2-12, KC/at NYJ..... 2 wins 9. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins Cincy's projected strength of victory: 64 to 68 wins

chazbb, good catch. I was just about to correct you on the tiebreakers. Basically the material in your original post is incomplete/inaccurate as it stands right now until you work through the correct tiebreakers you just posted. There are several threads out there right now with the correct scenarios if you want to reference them.

I didn't go into details because those are contained in the threads I linked. But basically, it has to do with tiebreaker order. When multiple teams are tied, the division tiebreaker is used first to eliminate teams. So KC would eliminate Denver and then KC would get compared to the Bills, in which the Bills win due to conference record. If KC is not there to eliminate Denver and Denver and the Bills go head-to-head at 9-7, Denver will get the wild card due to a better record vs common opponents. Trust me, KC is no threat to us.

That's the difficult way to do it. We would much rather have Cincy lose tonight. But yes, if Cincy wins out and KC wins out and the Jets lose to Miami (they MUST lose to Miami if Cincy wins tonight), we make it.

Yep, great post. We match up well with Vince Young.

1. The promise to not franchise is almost certainly a written agreement some place. If it's not, then Marv / Ralph / Dick are still waaay too honorable to renege on a promise. The franchise tag just will not happen. 2. Nate will become the highest paid corner in the league. It's not about whether he's better than Champ Bailey or not. It's just a matter of the market. There are lots of rich teams with lots of cap space who have a need at CB and will pay through the roof. I seriously doubt we can match the offers that will be thrown at him. And this isn't even taking into consideration the question of whether Nate is a Buffalo man who is happy living in this city. We have almost no chance of re-signing Nate. I would be shocked. Bring this post back up and call me an idiot if it happens.

All he's done recently is complain about money and large market vs small market.

Thanks for the link. Not a surprise--he was gone the day we decided to agree not to franchise him. It's not about cap room, it's about money. We're talking about perhaps the premier free agent on the market with lots of rich teams around who have cap space. $15-$20 million dollar signing bonus is a possibility. Oakland A's fans don't worry about signing Barry Zito. We shouldn't worry about signing Nate Clements. Enjoy his final games as a Bill. How much is Asante Samuel going to cost? What college players fit the Tampa-2?

No, I hear you man, Cincy losing tonight is important. In fact, I'll up the ranking from 7 to 8, and the Jets losing from 8 to 9. But we can't pretend that the Chiefs don't matter to us because they do. We hold no tiebreaker advantage over Denver unless the Chiefs finish 9-7. And that would severely limit our options.

Congratulations, brother!

Actually, you're right. My bad. We should have strength of victory advantage over Cincy if everything we need to happen happens. But it'll be close. Buffalo victories with projected wins for those teams: 1. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for) 2. Minnesota, 6-8, @GB/vs Stl..... 7 wins 3. GB, 6-8, vs Min/@Chi..... 7 or 8 wins (Chi has nothing to play for) 4. Hou, 4-10, vs Indy/vs Cle..... 4 or 5 wins 5. Jax, 8-6, vs NE/at KC..... 8 or 9 wins 6. Jets, 8-6, at Mia/vs Oak..... 9 wins 7. Miami, 6-8, vs Jets/@Indy..... 7 or 8 wins (Indy should have nothing to play for) 8. Ten, 7-7, at Buf/vs NE..... 7 or 8 wins (NE should have nothing to play for) 9. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins Buffalo's projected strength of victory: 67 to 73 wins Cincy's victories with projected wins for those teams: 1. KC, 7-7, at Oak/vs Jax..... 9 wins 2. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins 3. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins 4. Car, 6-8, at Atl/at NO..... 6 or 7 wins (NO might have nothing to play for) 5. NO, 9-5, at NYG/vs Car..... 10 or 11 wins (NO might have nothing to play for vs Car) 6. Cle, 4-10, vs TB/at Hou..... 5 or 6 wins 7. Bal, 11-3, at Pit/vs Buf..... 11 wins 8. Oak, 2-12, KC/at NYJ..... 2 wins 9. Pit, 7-7, vs Bal/at Cin..... 8 wins Cincy's projected strength of victory: 64 to 68 wins

Nope. It's more than that. You simplify it for yourself if it makes you happy.

JP, I'm not sure scenario 2 (passing Cincy) is correct. Are you sure we win that tiebreaker with Cincy on strength of victory? My calcs have Cincy ahead.