Ozymandius

Those mocks are wrong or outdated. Justice is a top 15, possibly top 10 pick.

I stated right on this board about a week ago that I thought McCargo was going to be one of those players that the internet mocks underrated. I think most of the time, we're not dealing with players shooting up the draft boards of real NFL teams. I think most of the time, the NFL teams already have these "risers" highly rated. It's the internet draft boards that have no clue what they're talking about.

Let's just do a quick review of what we know: - Ourlads, arguably the most respected indepedent draft service out there, pretty much predicts this guy will be a bust. http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=44966 - He has a history of nagging injuries, including a rebuilt knee - He has a history of taking plays off - He has a history of wearing down in games, which may be related to the taking plays off - His position, DT, has a history of notable top 10 busts. Sure, there are other positions with this history as well, but DT is among them. (OT, for example, does not have this history, with only Mike Williams being a proven out and out bust over the past 15 years as a top 10 pick. Gallery could be #2). - He has good talent but he also has a body type that can take years to start to dominate (probably due to effort), and usually for a different team. Ted Washington was this way. Sam Adams. Grady Jackson. (Shaun Rogers is an exception, as he's been dominant with the Lions, but Rogers was upset that he slipped to a second rounder and played with a chip on his soldier. We're talking about giving this body type instant millions as the #8 overall pick). I think I would love Haloti Ngata if we signed him as a free agent four or five years from now. - The Bills are employing Cover 2, which means there will be a defensive line rotation, which means he'll play a little over half the defensive snaps, especially with his endurance issues. This limits his value to any Cover 2 team that uses a defensive line rotation. IMO, drafting Haloti Ngata at #8 overall is a huge risk, a huge reach, and not getting value for that pick.

I've seen him play and he takes plays off. Especially when he's double teamed, he thinks he's done his job already and stops working. I saw a bad Arizona team just run straight down the gut on Oregon over and over again. He may play through nagging injuries but he receives those nagging injuries a lot, which slows him down. Yes, folks, he's a injury risk. He was even forced to leave the final game of his college career due to spraining his knee. Speaking of knees, he tore an ACL a couple years ago. He's a very good talent but I don't he's going to step right in and dominate for the team that drafted him high in the first round, after receiving all those millions. Think Ted Washington on this. We want to be the team that signs him four or five years from now, not the team that drafted him originally.

I actually wouldn't mind signing Ngata in four or five years as a free agent. Remember, when we signed Ted Washington, it was after he had a fairly so-so career for the 49ers, who drafted him the first round. Then, he signed with the Bills, finally got motivation to start dominating now that he was on a second contract with a different team, and the rest is history. I'd much rather be the Bills in that situation than the 49ers.

Targetting Claude Wroten in the third round is a bit of a pipe dream, imo. Also, I would not draft a WR at all. Even if the Bills keep SIX wide receivers, they already have Evans Davis Reed Parrish Price Smith and will have to cut Aiken. A late round WR pick is almost an automatic cut, imo. Same with a late round QB pick. It's like you're wasting two draft picks for no reason whatsoever. In a deep draft.

Yep. You are on the ball with this draft. Thanks.

Yep, there are some very good one-gap DT prospects that will be available in rounds 2 and 3. I like Claude Wroten over both Ngata and Bunkley, for example. And you would think that if a Bills fan were going to clamor for a pick on the lines with our first rounder, it would be on the OFFENSIVE line. Us fans have suffered crap line after crap line for over a decade now. We DESERVE to see a good OL for once. We've had a good DL as recently as a couple years go. We haven't seen a good OL in over a decade. Hmmm... now let's go use our first rounder on a DT that will be part of a rotation and has torn up his knee in the past (true for either Ngata or Bunkley).

Salary won't be a problem. Lack of a deserving player at #8 overall will be.

Hawk would be able to step right into SLB over Posey. I don't like either Ngata or Bunkley.

Just voted for Vernon

That article sounds promising. JP DID play tight last year I thought.

I think Holcomb has the worst chance out of the three. It's on JP. If he continues to be inconsistent, the braintrust will give the job to their hand-selected goldenboy Nall.

Nobody ever said this guy wasn't a polite young man. If you guys want to see something scary, read old articles about how polite, personable, and mature Mike Williams came off to be before he was drafted. MW was the "star" of that draft.

I don't like the second rounder. Linebacker is not one of those positions where you have to "plan ahead" by drafting a replacement years in advance. If Fletcher leaves us one offseason, we'll draft a replacement THAT year in the second round and he can start right away. If you want to "groom" a replacement, make it a late round draft choice. I don't think Spencer will be available in the third. Cofield really doesn't fit all that well because he's not a great athlete. DT needs to be addressed much sooner. For example, take Claude Wroten in the second round over Hodge. Why take ANY wide receivers at all, much less two of them? And again, a RB? We have Shaud and Lionel Gates to backup Willis. There are many other pressing needs than a backup RB.

What is this nonsense about "setting back the team"? I don't think the Bills are going to draft Davis but he would be tremendous value-added at TE. Same with Hawk at SLB over Posey.

I think the Bills will invest two draft picks into the line, one of them very high.

I hope you're right. Marvy is clearly one of the most educated, intelligent men running a front office right now. Whether that translates into good policy remains to be seen. I'm certain he's going to take some lumps along the way as he gains experience. I mean, that's life. Try something new, and you'll !@#$ it up a few times before you get it right.

I wish he were our coach.

I'm pretty sure game film carries the day, not the "eye look"

Good post. Wroten is probably my favorite defensive tackle in this draft and the guy who I think will turn out the best. He's a smooth, explosive athlete, but I don't think he'd fit in at the over tackle. If we draft him, and I hope we do to rotate with Tripplett at under tackle, we would still need a bulkier guy at the POA. I like Mahelona a lot as well.

Ourlads is arguably the most respected draft publication. Regardless, they are hardly the only people to have called Ngata lazy. "Takes plays off" is a very common perception of him. In addition to Ourlads, read what the scout in Dr. Z's column said about him. Read what his coach said about him - it took him a "couple of games" to get motivated? LOL.

If you're just going to assume that Ngata is a stud, then YEAH, drafting him makes sense. I'd agree that DT, all things being equal, is our greatest need. So if every player in the draft were equally great, we would and should draft DT first. Unfortunately, many folks including myself just don't think he's worth the #8 pick in the draft.

The "over tackle" in a Cover 2 scheme is almost like threading a needle. You want a guy who won't be pushed around at the point of attack and STILL be quick enough to penetrate and get after the QB. It's really hard to find guys like that. FWIW, I actually think Ngata, based purely on talent, could become a very good tackle and he could even be an over tackle in the Bills' defense. BUT, I don't it happens if he's the #8 overall pick. I think, just as an example, ridiculous as it may be, if Ngata were picked in the 6th round of the draft, he would become 10 times the player he'd be if he were picked #8 overall. If he were drafted low, he'd be angry and play with a chip on his shoulder. You just can't hand millions over to a lazy fatso like him and expect him to play hard every play. The one key component of the Cover 2 is that all the guys on the defensive line have go to "get after it", chase, penetrate, rip and run down the ball carrier. I doubt a set-for-life Ngata will exhibit that kind of consistent effort needed.

On the college level, he was great in run support, but he'll only be average there on the NFL level strictly due to his size. He's a coverage phenom, though. He can "make sense" in the first round because our safeties suck.