Ozymandius

I hear ya. In all my mocks, I have us taking two DTs on the first day, which I consider a necessity. Like you, I've targetted Wroten Mahelona and Lewis.

And in case anyone's wondering, Wroten, Watson, and to a slightly lesser extent Rod Wright, Mahelona, Jonathan Lewis were all durable players during college.

I don't always agree with the Scouts Inc evaluations on espn.com, but one thing I like about that site is that they'll consistently mention a player's injury history, which I find to be very useful. The first question I ask about a player isn't "how good is he?". It's "has he shown durability"? Because if a player is constantly injured before reaching the NFL, odds are he's going to continue being injured at the next level when everyone is bigger and faster. There are some players I just won't draft at all. For example, I've enjoyed watching Eric Henderson play for GaTech during his career, and as much as I want the Bills to draft an LDE prospect in this draft, I have this guy marked as undraftable because he can't stay on the field. That's my first filter -- are you durable or not?

About Bunkley, I had mentioned that he had to rebuild his left knee twice (ACL in high school, MCL in college). In 2004, his junior season, he was slowed most of the season by an ankle injury. 2005 was his first really healthy season playing full-time, and while he produced very well, this guy is a huge injury risk overall who will recieve little nicks and nacks all the time. He had to miss a practice during Senior Bowl week due to injury.

To me, neither of these guys is draftable in the first round due to injury concern. Here's what I wrote about Ngata, and I'll move onto Bunkley shortly: "I guess opinions can vary on whether the knee is stronger now (personally I still prefer the uncut knee to the cut knee) but I don't think either of us is in a position to judge that. What concerns me more is that he tore the knee in the first place. He's injury prone. When he came back from the knee injury in 2004, he was then slowed for a huge chunk of the season by a nagging hamstring injury. And then this past year, he was hobbled late in the season by an ankle sprain. Then, in his bowl game, he was forced to leave the game due to a knee sprain (and sidenote: Oregon started playing better without him in there.) Notice how all these injuries are lower body. It's always a concern with a guy this big -- does he have the ligaments and tendons to support that kind of weight? If we draft him, is he always going to be playing at 80% due to some nagging injury? When is the next ACL tear going to occur? Bunkley tore his knee twice, for example (the same knee, btw, so maybe it does NOT get stronger). I would just hate to take on an injury risk at the #8 overall pick. I like the fact that he will play through injuries (except, of course, when the ligament is completely torn), but if he's consistently slowed by injuries, his value drops dramatically. Maybe that's why he seems so sluggish sometimes, he's injured."

It's really not just Wroten, though. Mahelona, Jonathan Lewis, any of those guys could help us. Wroten has great potential as a one-gapper, though. Could be Pro Bowler like Tommie Harris.

As much as I've hated on Ngata recently, if the choice is strictly between Ngata and Bunkley, give me the fatso from Oregon. He's actually less of an injury risk than Bunkley. Obviously my choice is really neither. I'd wait until the second round to draft Wroten.

Exactly. The only way this scenario is possible is if the Saints draft QB, and two other teams in the top 7 draft QB. I respect Gosselin but he's wrong about Leinart to New Orleans. They gave all that money to Brees and now they're going to turn around and give a bunch more to Leinart?

Not in the first round, but I wouldn't rule out the Bills taking a QB in the later rounds. Reason is, I don't think we'll see all three current QBs on the roster post training camp. Right now, it's a three-for-all competition, which is fine, but eventually one of them is going to win the job, one of them will be assigned the backup, and then one of them is going to be third string and extremely unhappy about it. All three of these guys want to be a starter somewhere, and at the very least, they'd like to be the backup in case the starter is ineffective or injured. I know Nall wants no business with going back to third string. Holcomb is also waaay past that stage of his career. And I can't see JP keeping quiet and not demanding a trade if he's third string. One of these guys will have to be traded or cut, preferably traded. By drafting a QB late in this year's draft, the rookie can become our third string guy, allowing us to recoup a draft pick for whomever the odd man out is in this QB competition by trading him for a late 2007 pick.

I like this draft. At #8 overall, we're slotted in a position where we almost have to trade down to get the full value of our first rounder. I like the makeup of this draft. I like Whitner at that spot, saving us from a season of witnessing Bowen/Wire screwups. I really like Kiwi and agree that we need to get an LDE that can rush the passer for this defense to work. I do think you need to get another DT early, probably in place of Hester, who might never be anything more than a dangerous return man. And I don't think we're interested in another WR.

I guess opinions can vary on whether the knee is stronger now (personally I still prefer the uncut knee to the cut knee) but I don't think either of us is in a position to judge that. What concerns me more is that he tore the knee in the first place. He's injury prone. When he came back from the knee injury in 2004, he was then slowed for a huge chunk of the season by a nagging hamstring injury. And then this past year, he was hobbled late in the season by an ankle sprain. Then, in his bowl game, he was forced to leave the game due to a knee sprain (and sidenote: Oregon started playing better without him in there.) Notice how all these injuries are lower body. It's always a concern with a guy this big -- does he have the ligaments and tendons to support that kind of weight? If we draft him, is he always going to be playing at 80% due to some nagging injury? When is the next ACL tear going to occur? Bunkley tore his knee twice, for example (the same knee, btw, so maybe it does NOT get stronger). I would just hate to take on an injury risk at the #8 overall pick. I like the fact that he will play through injuries (except, of course, when the ligament is completely torn), but if he's consistently slowed by injuries, his value drops dramatically. Maybe that's why he seems so sluggish sometimes, he's injured.

I don't care if he worked his nads off to recover from his knee injury. He still has a rebuilt knee and a history of nagging injuries. All things being equal, would you rather have a player with a clean history of health, or a player who has torn an ACL and is constantly bothered by some injury? Thought so. Yes, there are a lot of busts at QB, same with DT. Oh, and guess what? Some are questioning whether Ngata has the drive/ambition/work ethic as well based on his taking plays off in college.

Marshall doesn't have T.O.'s burst, not even close. frogger - I do appreciate the knowledgeable draft talk, though. We just disagree on how to use the picks, which is normal.

There's just no way I can like your draft. I hope you don't take my criticisms of it personally, though, as we're just two Bills fans discussing football. First off, almost everyone I know is viewing this draft as the draft to rebuild our lines, which are critical to team success and need to be in place before the skill positions, and I think it is unacceptable to not spend at least 5 picks on the lines. At least. I mean, we have a terrible defensive line, and you use one pick to address it. None of our Dlinemen even fit the Cover 2 except for Tripplett and Schobel. Addressing you point by point, I again cannot fathom spending a second round pick on a backup. If you really want a third down back that bad, do you really think it's hard to find a scatback that can catch in the later rounds? Yes, if McGahee went down, it would hurt us, but exactly why are we worrying about backups and depth on the first day of the draft when we have crappy starters on the lines? Addai is a luxury, not a necessity, and we'll just have to agree to disagree because I find it to be a ridiculous pick. Bunkley is just a reach at #8, period. He has a long injury history, a criminal history, and no production before his senior year. Those are three huge strikes. In fact, just the injury history to me makes him undraftable in the first round. I view drafting like I do investment and Bunkley is just too huge a risk to take. Even if you stay put at #8 instead of trading down, you should project a player who is far less risky such as Hawk/Davis/Huff. If Ngata goes to the Packers like you projected, one of these three will almost certainly be available. I love Daryn Colledge. There's also a 2% chance he'll be there in the third round. But at least that pick was addressing the lines. See, I have nothing against most of the players you have selected, except maybe Bunkley. I do have a problem with not addressing needs adequately, or not projecting picks in the context of the roster. Exactly who is going to get cut for Brandon Marshall, a raw 5th round talent? Look at the contracts that we gave to Reed, Davis, and Price--do you really think the braintrust expects any of those guys to not be on the roster? Evans for sure isn't getting cut. Parrish was just a rookie last year and has upside. Do you really think the Bills are looking for more WR talent? Again, I can't fathom how you expect a raw 5th round talent with no experience to make the roster over former 1st and 2nd rounders with experience. Brandon Marshall is just another guy. Every year there is some big receiver from some small school who runs fast that draftniks fall in love with, and then they end up doing nothing. Terrell Owens is only happening once and even he was a third rounder. Did I mention that Marshall is raw? He's had one season starting at WR full-time. That means it'll take at least three years to develop him. Look at how long it took Jerry Porter, and he was a first round talent. Marshall is just another guy. Since you asked, I'd take whoever the best Dlineman is available at that point over Marshall.

And finally, Bunkley at #8 is a major, major reach. Check his production before senior year. Check his injury history. Check his criminal history.

Your priorities are kind of whack. A backup RB with our second rounder... lol. That's a draft pick where you expect to get a good starter, not a backup. If you want a backup RB, waste a late round pick. And I really really really don't think the Bills are going to draft a single WR this year. Even assuming they keep six wide receivers (Evans Davis Parrish Reed Price Smith), they'll still have to cut Aiken and George Wilson.

So, basically, out of 10 draft picks, only 3 go to addressing the lines.

The Bills SHOULD trade out of the 8th pick...for football reasons. There probably won't be any player there that will be worth the pick.

Vernon Davis will probably be drafted by the 49ers at #6

I'm also pretty confident that he is NOT going to be the best DT in this draft, at least not for the team that drafts him. It's just as likely that he's going to get injured, fat, or unmotivated.

Who said anything about late in the draft??? If the Bills don't go DT in round 1, I'm quite sure they are going to draft a DT in the second round and probably one in the third round as well (since we have two picks in the third). Trust me, the DT talent is deep this year, especially for one-gappers.

Nobody is slam dunk but there are certainly players like Davis, Huff, or Justice who don't have the injury history, lack of effort history, positional bust history, or body type bust hisotry that Ngata has.

There are good second and third round DT prospects as well. Nobody said we're not going to draft DT at all, just that it doesn't seem to be a wise investment to draft Ngata at #8 overall (or Bunkley either for that matter). You hope to get a star at that point in the draft, and he's very risky. There are going to be less risky prospects available at that spot. Again, I don't like Bunkley either and would prefer that we not draft DT in the first round.

There are people here who follow college football. That this is a deep draft is pretty common acknowledged.

If we drop to 17, I'd rather just see us drop one more time to the end of the first round to gain another second rounder. BTW,the drop from 8 to 17 might require more than just a second rounder from Minny. Here's a site that keeps track of hundreds of mocks... Justice being a top 13 pick is old news now... http://www.fantasyfootballjungle.com/y/200...ndex.php?id=262