Ozymandius

No matter what, I guarantee Donte Whitner will not be an out-and-out bust. He was a playmaker at OSU and will at least become a good safety for us. But, "good" will not justify this pick. He needs to become an All-Pro in order to justfy a top 10 pick and salary and passing up a second rounder.

Yes, our original reactions were the same then. We've both adjusted given some time to think it over. No, it's not an F, but you gave it a C and I'll give a D. If he becomes an All-Pro, it becomes an A. I know he'll become a good safety but he needs to become a game-changer like Polamalu or Reed to merit an A.

I gave Mike Williams an F. Seriously. His bustability threat was too high being waaay overweight. Whitner will be a much better player than MW, though.

I LIKE Donte Whitner. I remember complimenting somebody's mock draft in which they TRADED DOWN to pick him. The key part there is TRADE DOWN. But yes, he will become a very good safety.

Marv needs to draft Davin Joseph in the second round to begin making up for the travesty in the first round.

1. Donte Whitner = D 1. John McCargo = C- 3. Ashton Youboty = B- 4. Ko Simpson = B 5. Kyle Williams = C 5. Brad Butler = F 6. Keith Ellison = Incomplete, no opinion 7. Terrance Pennington = Incomplete, no opinion 7. Aaaron Merz = Incomplete, no opinion Overall Grade: D+ --------------------------------- 2006 PICKS --------------------------------- ---DONTE WHITNER: Surprise! The Bills must've watched the playoffs and saw how Troy Polamalu could affect a game and decided to get one of their own. I have nothing personal against Donte Whitner. In fact, I like him as a player A LOT. Here's a link to a post I made TWO WEEKS AGO praising a mock draft in which the Bills trade down and select Whitner at #17 overall: http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showt...5195&hl=Whitner . The key there, though, is TRADE DOWN for value. Remember, Ed Reed was picked #24 overall while Polamalu was picked at #16 overall, and now Whitner has gone #8 overall. Look, Whitner is going to become a very good safety if healthy but he needs to become an All-Pro like Polamalu to justify this pick at #8 overall with no trade downs. With Philly and Denver both trying to trade up, we should've went ahead and accepted even a third rounder to trade down and still pick up Whitner for less salary; also, not that he has a great history of being right, but John Clayton reports that we could've gotten an extra second-rounder out of the trade from one of these teams...I would've loved to have picked up an extra second in a deep draft. Furthermore, Whitner had a knee injury his sophomore year that required a scope and kept him out of a couple of games. If you want to draft a slightly undersized safety in the top 10, I would want him to have a 100% perfect bill of health. After initially grading this pick an F, I've decided that it's too harsh a grade; an "F" should mean bad positioning AND player. Whitner is a very good player (but again, needs to become an All-Pro) that anyone who watched OSU saw was all over the field making plays, BUT the Bills didn't leverage the value of their draft position. Still, the huge positive out of this pick is that we should never have to see Matt Bowen or Coy Wire as a starting safety in our lineup. Whitner is also allegedly a great leader and hard-working person with much character, something that we need in the locker room and can't be assessed by just watching games. ---JOHN MCCARGO: McCargo has pretty good upside and fits the Cover 2 well with his quickness. This wasn't a reach; I think the first round is where most teams that use small defenses have him slotted. I have nothing against John McCargo but again, I have a problem with the strategy we used on this pick. I hate that we traded away a third rounder in a deep draft to move up and get him. If it were up to me, I would've kept that pick and let the draft come to me at #42 overall; if McCargo didn't fall to 42, take offensive line help instead and then use both third rounders on the defensive line. There are other good DTs out there that fit our defense. I like Jonathan Lewis a lot... Jesse Mahelona... we didn't NEED McCargo enough right then and there to trade up for him when you balance that choice against our MULTIPLE roster holes and a deep draft. When a draft is deep and you have multiple holes, you want to preserve and gain as many picks as possible, and I think the Bills did a poor job with that with both the Whitner and McCargo picks. Furthermore, as with Whitner, McCargo does not have a clean bill of health and it remains to be seen if he can be durable in the NFL at his position. Note also that McCargo likely will not start but rather rotate with Tripplett at the 3-tech/undertackle position. We still need to find ourselves a more stout 1-tech/overtackle/nose type DT from this draft. Because McCargo does address the lines, and because we're not screwing up with a top 10 pick, this second round grade is a bit higher than the first round grade. ---ASHTON YOUBOTY This pick was pretty good value because of Youboty's upside. He has the good size/speed/athleticism that people look for in a CB and is a good hitter but at the same time, let's not overrate this kid. He's boom or bust--good upside, but he could become a complete flop as well (unlike Whitner, who will at least be good). He really isn't a first round value based on game play and it'll probably be awhile before he can be trusted to make good reads in a cover 2 zone scheme. OSU fans can attest that he had a much better sophomore year than junior year, and actually, some teams in '05 (i.e. Minnesota) specifically picked on him all game long for big plays. He's a project, which is fine because he comes from a good lineage (OSU DBs), and because we have time to develop him behind Clements, McGee, and King. I don't like ignoring the offensive line the first day, though. Cornerback is the deepest position in this draft and we could've gotten a good prospect in the second day especially since it's not a pressing concern for us like the lines are. That needs to be taken into account when you grade this pick. ---KO SIMPSON Well, it's quite obvious that the Bills are unhappy with how Vincent and Bowen/Wire project long-term to being Cover 2 safeties (as they should be). Simpson is a good value pick, period, even though this isn't an immediate need for the Bills. Very good upside and ball skills, but as with Youboty, his impact will probably be a couple of seasons down the line after he gets used to zone concepts. ---KYLE WILLIAMS Blah. They just drafted Tim Anderson again, which isn't terrible. Anderson's not a BAD player and neither is Kyle Williams. Great motor, durability, and intangibles. I was just hoping to get somebody with good upside. ---BRAD BUTLER Yuck. No upside whatsoever. ---KEITH ELLISON No opinion ---TERRANCE PENNINGTON No opinion ---AARON MERZ No opinion

If the Bills "secretly" covet a player that will be there at 14, let me throw out some names... Antonio Cromartie - will be because the Bills secretly have him rated in their top 10 based on potential Daryn Colledge - will be because the Bills grade him out to be just as good as Brick or Justice.

No team would ever do it that way. You never get caught holding goods you don't want.

I could be wrong, but I don't think we can trade him today. No team is going to trade a draft pick for a player they haven't gotten a chance to give a physical to... So unless Nate has somehow been showcased around the league and it's been under-the-radar, no trade.

It doesn't improve our chances at Brick that much. IMO, it has always come down to whether the Jets take him or not.

if I were at work, i'd probably have sites open not just one. nfl.com has one too

An extremely unrealistic mock. Where's the second fifth-rounder??? Are the Bills just not going to pick anyone there?

About Hollis Thomas... I don't think the Bills have signed a single player over 30 yet this year... don't think we're interested...

No, you don't draft skill position players until you're settled along the lines. No cart-before-horse bullsh--. This is a pick we could maybe afford to make next year but this draft is about the lines. Plus, factor in the history of first round QB busts, and it's poor risk management.

I, too, think Thomas will be cut. This isn't a "bad" move or anything -- the Bills are just adding bodies for training camp and will wait to see how it all shakes out. If Thomas makes the team, all the better... if he doesn't, no harm done.

It's really not that complicated to do trades, though. There are even those draft value charts out there to serve as a baseline for trades. I can see Marv not making trades because he's old, conservative, and scared to pass on some player, but the actual feat of assessing trade value shouldn't be difficult for a bright man like him.

You're right. I'm using old information. Thanks.

Excited but also fearful. You can feel the screwups coming.

If the Saints can trade down, they'll probably take Hawk.

If Warrick Dunn can get 20 touches a game, so can Bush, and he should be even more effective than Dunn with those twenty touches. I tend to agree with you that Bush isn't worth the #1 overall, but I don't think he's going to "struggle" at all.

He's better than Bennie. Beyond that I'm not sure if there's going to be another O-lineman that makes the roster that he's going to be better than (and Bennie probably gets cut) when it's all said and done. I was never worried that we were going to pick up at least two guards that are better than Bennie. I wasn't just hoping for "better than Bennie", though. I was hoping for "good", maybe "great", which is still possible. I love me some Davin Joseph, for example. But until we draft or sign this good or great guard, I'll just shrug my shoulders at the signing of more average players. Nothing to get excited about.

Good rationalization... unfortunately, Panther fans have not been spoiled by their offense at all recently: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/carindex.htm Even if they WERE spoiled, that logic is weak, but they're not...

Well that's a given. At any rate, Reyes = future TSW whipping boy. I'll just sit back and enjoy the carnage.

Those comments about Reyes sound familiar

Also, factor in some team trading into the top 7 to get Brick.