Watkins101
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Posts posted by Watkins101
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20 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:
Brock Purdy helped lead SF to a Super Bowl in his 2nd season. He threw for 4200 yards and had 31 TD passes.
He deserves to be right where he is.
To be fair, last year he had: the best Rb in the league (not really even a debate, 300 more rushing yards than anybody else, 2nd in receiving, only off by 30 yards), the best TE in the league (though Kelce was close), and the ~3rd best Wr Duo in the league. The Wr is more of a debate, I put the dolphins and eagles ahead, but the Vikings, Bucs and maybe others have an argument there for sure. Regardless, it’s still a high end unit and the 49ers definitely have the best group of skill positions on offense in the game right now. Jimmy garrapolo had virtually identical stats in 2019 without having CMC or Aiyuk on the team, but he’s definitely not a “can carry his team” type of player.
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Now? No
in the off-season? probably
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On 7/30/2024 at 2:14 PM, BarleyNY said:
Yep. To me the trade and contract looked like it was simply a case of an owner throwing a tantrum and demanding that he get his new, shiny toy (aka FQB). In response to a question about it Haslam has even said that he was sick of "being in QB purgatory".
Barring another big off the field incident Watson will be a Brown through at least next season. That's because his guarantees would void. The earliest that they can
realistically move on from him is after 2025. At that point the Browns could take the lion's share of his salary and cap hit for his last season under contract (2026) and dump him for a throwaway pick. He's obviously got this year and probably next to prove he is worth a but contract though.
I’d be a little surprised if other teams would want the baggage Watson Carrie’s if they’re not getting a star QB. Signing him near vet minimum? Maybe. Trading for him? probably not.
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10 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:
Yep and all of these names were in the "run first era" you look at the carries these guys had compared to cooks... big difference... 60-100 more caries between the 2 years for each of those players accept Fred.
To be fair, aside from Thurman Thomas, none of them had a Qb in the same ballpark to play with as Josh Allen. They’d face a lot more stacked boxes than Cook.
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On 6/4/2024 at 7:24 PM, Buffalo716 said:
People said the same thing about Andy Reid in Philadelphia LOL and he's not a different coach
Sometimes it takes years and years to build the team... Andy Reid has had 11 years building his team in Kansas City.. Sean McDermott has had 7 years
Andy Reid went to a franchise that was actually good in the 5 or 10 years prior at points.. McDermott took over a team that won 17 years with no postseason
Worst drought in sports
Patrick mahomes worst record against any franchise is the Buffalo Bills
We certainly can beat them anytime any day it just hasn't felt that way.. like wide right or 13 seconds
We're not far away from beating them and we absolutely can win super bowls
By the end of his 7th year, Reid had already won a Super Bowl, and the year before was 1 play away from beating the Pats to make the Super Bowl. By comparison, McDermott has made 1 conference championship, in which the team was down 38-15 in the fourth quarter. Through his first 7 years, Reid had 2 seasons of elite QB play, while McDermott has had 4.
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I don’t think we’d get any more than a 6th for Clapp, as a depth (6-7) offensive lineman on most teams. We already have plenty of mid-late draft picks(with expected comp picks we have 3 4ths, 5th and 2 6ths), so trading our key depth for another doesn’t make sense. Clapp has played center and guard, and if any of our 3 starting interior lineman get hurt, he probably slots in the lineup (either at guard, or shifting McGovern to guard and taking over at center). We got lucky last year with a healthy oline, but shouldn’t count on it again this year. Quality Oline depth is more important than an 11th draft pick with little trade up value.
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On 5/24/2024 at 6:05 AM, kitchen sink said:
As a Bills supporter, I am hoping that the Bears have the worst season possible in 2024 and the Bills get the first pick in the fourth round of the draft next year.
2nd worst season, ideally the Vikings are worse.
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2 hours ago, beacon said:
I think it all comes down to $$$$. Cap is 250mil. Say 45m for QB, 35m for elite wr, 30m for edge and 30m for left tackle. 140m for 4 positions. 110m left over. College football is loaded with all kinds of receivers. I lean towards Green Bays approach. Draft a couple each year and unless you have an outright superstar stud, just churn thru them. An elite QB will find them. They have one in Allen. Great topic Shaw. Can't wait to see how Allen/Brady respond this season. Seems like all the talking heads have the Bills imploding, maybe it's justified. I don't think so but I am a diehard, psychotic Bills fan. First live game I attended was oj's rookie year at the rockpile.
Except 0 LTs in the NFL make 30 million, the most expensive is at 25, and only 5 make 20 or more. There’s 1 DE that makes 30 or more, and only 12 that break 20. Wr is closer, 3 make 30+, and 18 make 20 or more. No team is spending anywhere near that kinda money on 4 players.
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2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:
I think he was. If not, why did you wait for guarantees to kick in?
I can only imagine that something happened in the offseason that either hit critical mass or exacerbated the fault lines.
Now, long term, the team might see benefit: they were already over the salary cap for 2025 and likely got a top 45 pick
But this is going to hurt short term
Could have been a difference in return, maybe we wouldn’t have gotten much at all if we traded beforehand, and Beane preferred getting a second.
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17 hours ago, sunshynman said:
I bet that is why they never reveal the rules for the picks. It allows them to mess around with them and leak some crap like playing time matters. They ought to dish out the picks biased purely on record. Worst team gets the best pick. Every team over 500 nothing.
Isn’t that just how the draft works already? Why even do Comp picks at that point.
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Yeah, but just to sell it probably.
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11 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:
What does the 5th year option for him cost? Probably a ton for an above average RB.
It depends on a number of things, including play time and pro bowl selections.
If the player played less than 75% of the offensive snaps for 2 seasons and less than 50% for the 3 seasons, it’d be the average of the 3rd-25th highest paid RBs over the last 5 years. If they played 75% or more snaps, it’s the average of the 3rd-20th paid RBs over the last 5 years. I didn’t do the actual average of these numbers, If they made a pro bowl, they’d get the transition tag equivalent (just under 10 mil). If they were selected for multiple pro bowls, it’s the equivalent of the franchise tag (~12 mil for Rbs). These pro bowls only count if they were the original selection, not alternates.
Najee Harris went to one probowl, but was not the original selection, so he qualifies only for the playing time. His salary on the 5th year option would have been 6.79 million, which would have made him the 12th highest paid RB.
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On 4/27/2024 at 10:06 PM, ngbills said:
Coleman replaced Davis. Samuel replaced Harty. So yes.
Samuel was paid about twice as much as Harty was, and at a longer contract. He wasn’t a Harty replacement, he was brought in to help mitigate the loss of Davis and Diggs. Beane likely already was planning on moving Diggs at the time of the signing.
Ultimately, blaming Diggs for the state of the Wr room is silly. Beane is the one in control of the situation. He brought in Diggs, while knowing there were some character concerns/issues with teammates in Minnesota. He built the recieving room so blaming it on one player is ridiculous when it was him who brought the player in. It’s one thing if there was an unexpected suspension of your #1, then you could blame it on the player, but Beane is the one that holds the cards here. If Diggs was an issue, he should have addressed the issue more by bringing in replacements.
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I keep seeing people comparing fans’ reactions to the Coleman pick to the wrong Josh outcry when Allen was drafted. This seems utterly ridiculous to me, as their situations are pretty far apart. Josh Allen was as boom-or-bust of a prospect as they come. He was most likely to either be a star or a complete waste of a pick, and there was unlikely to be any Inbetween. Whereas Coleman, his ceiling according to most is a 2, and his floor is a depth receiver, a red zone threat with good hands, but not enough impact in the middle of the field to be a starter. Really am not seeing the comparison at all.
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Doubt the plan would’ve involved both Coleman and Samuel if Diggs was still around.
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Good, we needed some IOL depth.
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8 minutes ago, Brandon said:
It may be that NFL teams just don't like him, but before anyone gloats, I would offer the peanut gallery a cautionary tale of a guy named Khalil Shakir. He was another prospect who was generally regarded as a day two prospect who got caught up in the numbers of a deep WR draft class and fell into the 5th round as teams had already filled their needs at the position. That type of thing can happen in a deep draft class.
I don't know for certain if that type of scenario is playing out here for Franklin or whether teams just don't like him as much, but it wouldn't surprise me.
Another good example (albeit a bit different) is DK Metcalf. He was very highly touted by draft pundits and some had him going in the top 10. He fell to the bottom of the second where he was taken by the Seahawks. I’m a re-draft he’d likely go top 10, if not too 15.
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Starting to get into the potential trade up zone here.
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Just now, 5ths the charm said:
Wait, we took him because NE wanted him? Is that how we scout?
I think the idea is that we didn’t trade down again because NE wanted him.
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Just now, GunnerBill said:
The run on DBs is very much on.
Good, McDermott can maximize value with Dbs taken in the 5th-7th. I’d much rather bring in another receiver or some DL help early.
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2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
We literally have the best TE room in the NFL with Kincaid and Knox. And sorry, there is no way Balt has a better group than us. And you are posting this BEFORE the Bills address the WR position too.
6 NFL tight ends outproduced Dawson and Dalton Combined last year. Sure, Kincaid could take another step next year and this could become true, but right now, it is definitely not the case. Baltimore also has Flowers and Likely, which defeats the argument for Dawson Knox being the best #2 in the league.
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52 minutes ago, The Wiz said:
I honestly can't see them picking at 33. They could have drafted at 32 and got someone with a 5th year option. Now they don't have that by moving one pick. They are going to take calls all day and move back again IMO.
It’s definitely still possible. Beane could have viewed the trade as moving down 1 pick, and only losing the 5th year option, in exchange for later moving from 95 to ~85.
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8 hours ago, LEBills said:
Round 5 gonna be lit!
Doubt it. Beane likes to trade up in the 2nd-4th. I’d guess we end up with 2 5ths.
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20 minutes ago, Rigotz said:
I've heard a lot of Bills talking heads raving about 2nd round WR success -- Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, etc.
It's a hot topic with the podcasting community as everyone seems to be laser focused at WR in round 1 or 2.
So, I was curious to research the hit rate of WR in 1st round vs 2nd round the past several years. The results might surprise you.
I marked "++" for plus starters each year, which I would define as a top 32 wideout. The past 2 seasons are TBD, so I started in 2021.
Totals:
11 out of 28 first round picks ended up being plus starters (39%).
6 out of 33 second round picks ended up being plus starters (18%).
2021:
1st Round
Ja'Marr Chase ++
Jaylen Waddle ++
DeVonta Smith ++
Kadarius Toney
Rashod Bateman
2nd Round
Elijah Moore
Rondale Moore
D'Wayne Eskridge
Tutu Atwell
Terrace Marshall Jr
2020:
1st Round
Henry Ruggs
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb ++
Jalen Reagor
Justin Jefferson ++
Brandon Aiyuk ++
2nd Round
Tee Higgins ++
Michael Pittman ++
Laviska Shenault
KJ Hamler
Chase Claypool
Van Jefferson
Denzel Mims
2019:
1st Round
Marquise Brown
N'Keal Harry
2nd Round
Deebo Samuel ++
AJ Brown ++
Mecole Hardman
JJ Arcega-Whiteside
Parris Campbell
Andy Isabella
DK Metcalf ++
2018:
1st Round:
DJ Moore ++
Calvin Ridley
2nd Round:
Courtland Sutton
Dante Pettis
Christian Kirk
Anthony MIller
James Washintgon
DJ Chark
2017:
1st Round:
Corey Davis
Mike Williams ++
John Ross
2nd Round:
Zay Jones
Curtis Samuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster
2016:
1st Round:
Corey Coleman
Will Fuller
Josh Doctson
Laquon Treadwell
2nd Round:
Sterling Shepard
Michael Thomas +?
Tyler Boyd
2015:
1st Round:
Amari Cooper ++
Kevin White
DeVante Parker
Nelson Agholor
Breshad Perriman
Phillip Dorsett
2nd Round:
Devin Smith
Dorial Green-Beckham
So ... when you hear the talking heads describing 1st and 2nd round as both being a hot bed for WR talent historically, this is just recency bias due to a few good players coming from the 2020 and 2019 first and second round. There have been been A LOT of JAGs mixed in as well... but maybe they forgot. Hope you enjoy the analysis.
Your grading seems a little arbitrary to me. For example, Mike Williams has ++ despite Juju Smirth Schuster having more catches and touchdowns in the same career length. Cortland Sutton is also on pace to pass Mike Williams. Michael Thomas only a +? Despite being a top 3 receiver the first 4 years of his career.
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"If anyone had told me...." going into week 4 edition
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
1. Steelers being up 3 games on the Bengals. Not surprised that the Steelers defense is at the top of the league, but I am surprised their offense has produced enough to be undefeated so far.
2. Vikings being 3-0. Sam Darnold at QB and a tough schedule so far. Enough said.
3. Washington beating the Giants 21-18 with the Giants getting 3 TDs and the commanders getting 7 FG. Not the way you’d expect to see that score.
4. Jayden Daniels with a 80.3% completion percentage, topping the league. Any player with an 80%+ completion rate is shocking, but it being a rookie is even more so.