BillsFanSD

I mean, Jackson just stands back there in the pocket seemingly forever, directing traffic, and then effortlessly scampers for 10 yards and a first down. He's obviously not as good as Allen or Mahomes, but he's a really hard guy to defend.

Did you miss Bills-Ravens earlier this year?

Apparently you're allowed to tackle the runner by his facemask now. (Tennesee game) Edit: Pick 6 in TEN's favor while I was typing that.

Too early for this. We just need to stack wins and let the rest sort itself out for now. When we get to week 14 or so it'll be time to worry about who needs to take losses.

I'm rooting for the meteor impact.

I'm pretty sure the EV of going for two is nearly exactly 1 point, the same as a PAT -- teams seem to convert these at basically a 50-50 clip. So any time you observe anything on tape that you think you can exploit on 4th and goal from the 2, you should probably opt for the 2-point try. Edit: Talking about early game situations here, where you're just trying to accumulate points. Obviously things change in the late game, where you need to go by the chart.

I'm really not worried about any team that needs external motivation to win a football game.

Agreed on Milano overall. On the interception, that was just great team defense and it's a play that probably doesn't happen with slightly weaker personnel. Miller forced Mahomes to abandon the pocket. Milano was there* to step up and force Mahomes to make an off-platform throw without being able to see the defense accurately. And Johnson was there to do the needful. That is how you play sustained winning defense. * Kudos to Frazier for scheming this up. Milano may not be able to cover Kelse -- who can? -- but the guy was game-changing as a spy.

I agree 100%, and I don't see how anybody who lived through the drought could possibly take any of this for granted. I still can't believe it's really happening.

I'm going to say Denver, because it feels like they don't even need to rise to the level of "good" on offense. They just need to find a way to stop being terrible.

And KC will hang 35+ on them, because that's what happens when you don't have a defense loaded with pro bowlers. I know we're all fans and homers, but the 2022 Bills legitimately like one of those teams that people will remember 20 years from now. This team is flat-out stacked. Just because we can hold KC to 20 points doesn't mean that anybody else can expect to do so.

I added current point spreads (on KC) for each of these games, just to provide a little more forecasting. The betting public seems to think that the Chiefs have about six tight games left on their schedule, where I'm defining "tight" as "favored by a FG or less:" @49ers, @Chargers, Rams, @Bengals, @Broncos, and @Raiders. They're favored in all but one of those games and frankly I expect them to beat the Chargers in LA. Because I'm a pedant and can't help myself, here's a similar analysis for the Bills' remaining schedule (our spreads have a little more cross-book variance than the Chiefs for some reason, so some of these lines are eyeball estimates): We're favored in every game this year, and only two of them (@Patriots and @Bengals) are considered close. Three if you toss in GB. I think you're right that the Chiefs have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, and of course they're an extremely good team that we would all expect to win most games regardless of their opponent. But our schedule is easy too. The divisional games may not be the laughable cakewalk that we were expecting, but none of those teams are particularly scary or even worrisome. If KC ends up being our only competition for home field, we should feel pretty good about our margin for error. (Of course, "margin for error" is like depth -- it's nice to have but you'd rather not use it).

Do we actually know for sure that that temperature reading is accurate? I don't know that human beings -- even NFL athletes -- are capable of doing anything in 120 degree weather. I have five marathons under my belt (none terribly recent -- I'm past my racing days) and I wouldn't bother going out for even a short run in those conditions. Neither would any other serious runner. My money is on "broken thermometer."

Daboll seems to have a very good understanding of how to tailor his team's offense to the personnel at this disposal. When he had Josh Allen, he slung it on every play. When he has Daniel Jones, he puts the game in Barkley's hands. That's smart, and of course Allen benefited from being coached by a smart staff. That said, Allen is probably playing better now than he ever has in the regular season. It's not like Daboll's absence is hurting anything.

This. About 28 other teams would have just taken a knee there and gone to halftime. A few other teams might run one play just to see what happens and take it from there. KC is probably the only team in the league (besides us) that can realistically hope to make something good happen in that situation. We just needed a defender to make a play, and nobody did.

TBH, even if that play was a total improvisation by Allen, the fumble is still McKenzie's fault. This is Allen's fifth year. We know he likes to improvise. If you want to be a starting skill position player for the Buffalo Bills, you need to be on the same page as the franchise cornerstone who's getting paid $250M to make highlight reel plays. It's inexcusable for a player to be in lateral/pitch range and be unprepared to receive a lateral.

Every year, a team coasts to the #1 seed and proceeds to get bounced in the divisional round. Philadelphia looks exactly like this year's version of that team. They're a pretty good team with a pretty good QB taking advantage of a schedule that would Notre Dame blush with embarrassment. Those teams tend to get exposed in the playoffs.

I took it easy on my morning run. Stopped to snap a few photos of the crisp fall weather. Stayed mentally loose and relaxed so I didn't tense up during the game.

Gonna be interesting when Tre gets back. I can't recall having this kind of depth at CB before, certainly not in the McBeane era.

Eh, Moss is always a good candidate for a healthy scratch. I wouldn't read anything into it.

I'm always willing to look past one botched play. Allen did dirt the game-winning TD pass against Miami after all -- stuff like this happens over the course of a season and you have to live with occasional bad play. But McKenzie was just a flat-out liability on the field yesterday. If he had made up for the fumble with an actual good play somewhere, that would be one thing. But he had the fumble, the dropped TD on 4th down, and another big drop, and absolutely nothing in the plus column to balance any of those out. If we had lost this game, everybody would be blaming the loss on him, and they'd be more or less right. I get that McKenzie is a great guy in the locker room, and he definitely has a role on this team as a gadget player. It's just that this season is too important to carry him as our starting slot WR. I'm ready to see what Shakir can do. And if another WR happens to be available, I would not mind adding somebody for the stretch run and playoffs.

He's not quite in Frank Reich territory in "local legend" terms, but he has to be getting close, right?

I'm very glad this game is behind us in the W column. My goodness that was stressful.

Welp, here we go. See you on the other side.

Colts are all excited about scoring four TDs in a single game. That's good if you're Al Bundy, but it's just another half of football for JA17.