Nihilarian

Brian Billick was on NFL network and stated he had a kid like Allen who had a bad accuracy problem in Kyle Boller and he thought they could fix it. They couldn't. The difference being that Boller played four years at Cal with a comp% of 38.6 his first year, 46.7 his second, 49.3 his third and finally 53.4 his senior season. That's four years of college. His NFL career comp% was at 56.7. Cal must have been desperate for a QB with completion percentages like those as those percentages are truly pathetic. Josh Allen has only played two seasons at Wyoming with some talent around in his first season and every player that touched the ball besides Allen was gone for the 2017 season and although his completion percentage stayed at 56%, 56.3 to be exact. There are several reasons as to why his comp% didn't improve in 2017. Mike Mayock recently stated he thinks Allen will be a top-five pick and I agree. Denver at the latest with the 6th pick. Most scouts will tell you that accuracy has so much to do with footwork and Allen even admitted his footwork in college was bad. He has since been working with Jordan Palmer(Carson's brother) who is a QB trainer and his footwork has improved as has his accuracy which he showed off at his pro day. Time will certainly tell whether this kid will be another Kyle Boller or Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben and I think it's the latter.

I think the Jets main plan is to draft Sam Darnold and if he isn't there I think they go RB Saquon Barkley. This makes so much more sense as they did sign Teddy Bridgewater who could be their long-term QB if he ever returns to 100% healthy. I love Josh Allen and think he would be a perfect fit in Buffalo. A big, strong blue-collar type who played in the snow and cold of Wyoming. His toughness reminds me of Jim Kelly.

That was the scheme under Dennison and now it's changing to Erhardt-Perkins scheme which is what the Patriots run and a big reason as to why Deball is the new OC. He worked for the Patriots for a lot of years as WR, TE assistant coach and was the Alabama OC last year. This was one of the reasons as to why they moved on from Tyrod and now want more of a pocket passer QB vs an RPO QB. Just some food for thought here. UCLA QB Josh Rosen ran a version of a WCO offense and that is kinda why I don't believe all the hype around the Bills wanting him.

Looking back on the last thirty years of the draft, it turns out that 39% of QBs taken in the first round became “elite” QBs (4,000 season passing yards, 60% completion percentage, a certain “put-the-team-on-my-back”-itude) while 39% become “busts”; the remaining 22% become middle-of-the-pack players. In fact, the first pick is the best time to take a QB: nine out of the fifteen QBs selected first overall in the past thirty years have become elite while only two have turned into busts. https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/05/31/drafting-an-nfl-qb/ Every NFL that doesn't have a franchise QB now wants their Carson Wentz. The problem is the draft is not an exact science and it's a gamble. The only guy I'd move up to #2 to gamble on is Sam Darnold. If he is gone I'd have to hope that one of the top four drops out of the first six picks for the next gamble to move up to #7. If that doesn't happen it looks like Mason Rudolph is the man at 22. That is if the Steelers don't move up to draft him before Buffalo.

Here is what I said, Which was kinda why I highlighted each of those eventual star NFL players first season in college. Not only did they improve their completion percentage after their first year. They also improved their college average completion percentage to the NFL completion percentage. Brett Favre was at 40.7% completion percentage in his first year at So Miss and averaged a 52.4 completion percentage in college. He improved over his first season and he then averaged over his NFL career a 62.0 percentage which was an improvement from his College days. Brett Favre, @ Southern Miss, First season 40.7-second season 55.8-third season 54.1- fourth season 55.4. Then in the NFL went right to 64.1 and averaged 62.0 over his career. Two seasons of college football is really not enough collected data to be 100% positive that a player won't improve as these are young boys who are developing into mature grown men. When Allen first got to Wyoming he was this scrawny kid who grew into that big frame. I gave reasons as to why Josh Allen might not have improved his accuracy due to a team filled with rookies in his second year vs a veteran team in his first year. He was also in a pro-style offense which features a deeper passing scheme which is tougher on young players vs what someone like Josh Rosen ran at UCLA which was a version of a west coast offense which featured shorter passes. Players like Darnold and Rosen also had better teams around them with better coaching, and Rosen had a greater receiver talent in a kid like Lasley who had 1264 yards receiving. Allen has already shown the NFL scouts he has improved his accuracy from what he showed in his senior bowl performance and hence the reason as to why he has moved up into the top one or two QBs in this years draft class. Let's also not forget that Allen was the MVP of the bowl game that Wyoming played in against Central Michigan going 11 of 19 for 154 yards, 3 TDs with a rating of 178.1. Do I know for 100% that Allen's completion percentage from 56.2 in college will improve to 60% plus, NO! Do I think it will, YES! Hopefully, he gets drafted by a team that will allow him to sit for a bit and develop

That article was dated Feb 24th before the combine. When almost the entire teams coaching staff and FO brass show up at a prospects pro day I think you can safely say there is smoke there. The kid is too good to last until the second round as his grade isn't that far away from the top 5 QB's. Darnold 7.0, Rosen 6.1. Mayfield and Allen 6.0, Jackson 5.9 and Rudolph 5.6.

Me being obtuse...more like you being purposely dense! You dared me to show some examples that showed that college players improved their completion percentage and I did just that! I listed five examples. I don't need to show more than I showed and if you want more than look them up on your own. Each and every one of those players I listed started out lower with their completion percentage their first year in college and improved it over playing time just like I stated. Nothing more, nothing less. A big reason as to why Josh Allen's completion percentage wasn't higher in his second year is because every player that touched the football at Wyoming in 2016 besides Allen was gone in 2017. Attempt to comprehend that completion percentage is not just about the QB throwing the ball it's also about his receivers catching the ball...or more importantly not dropping the pass.

Joe Montana, @ ND 42.4-52.4-54.2. Then in the NFL went from 56.5 to as high as 71.4 and averaged 63.2 over his career. Brett Favre, @ Southern Miss, 40.7-55.8-54.1-55.4. Then in the NFL went right to 64.1 and averaged 62.0. Eli Manning, @ Ols Miss, 48.5-63.5-58.0-62.4. then in the NFL 48.2 in his first season and his career average is only 59.8. Most years he was above 60%. Russell Wilson, @ NC State, 54.5-59.3-58.4-72.8. then in the NFL his stats went to 64.1 and he averages 64.0. EDIT: looking at the name I figured I'd add Tyrod Taylor, @ VT, 53.7-57.2-56.0-59.7. Averaging NFL Comp% is 62.4% Exactly, this kid played in a pro-style offense which is tougher to play in and his throws were not short dump offs or screens. When you read what opposing coaches complained about when setting up a game plan against Wyoming's offense you get a better understanding of what this kid can do with his arm. Allen basically carried that team with his arm and they went 8-5 with no run game, a bad line, and rookie receivers. Allen didn't have the talent of a big-name coaching staff and elite players that guys like Rosen and Darnold had. One of Rosen's receivers had over 1200 yards receiving alone. Rosen's teams lost their bowl games and Darnold looked lost against Ohio St.

I gotta tell ya that you will look so silly with that cone up your ass singing that song when you realize that the Pittsburgh Steelers love this kid and will select him in the first IF he is still there. No way this kid makes it into the second round. Rudolph met with the Steelers brass at the combine and his pro day. With Big Ben talking about retirement the Steelers are already looking for a replacement. If Buffalo doesn't get one of the top four guys they should take him with the 22nd pick. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000921592/article/steelers-keep-close-eye-on-qb-mason-rudolph-at-pro-day

Allen had a 12.2 YPA in the senior bowl with better talent around him then he had at Wyoming. He went 9 of 13 for 158 yards, 2 TDs and he showed both accuracy and touch in that game. Probably why a lot of scouts, draft sites have elevated the kid to the #1 QB in this year's draft. Don't be surprised if he goes #1 to Cleveland or #2 to the Giants.

Excellent post kinda wasted on Bills fans who have already made up their minds because they have read that no QB can succeed with accuracy issues and Allen has had accuracy issues in College. Nevermind the fact that he only played two years at Wyoming and so many, many, many college QB's improved their accuracy after the first two years. Almost every big name QB out there in the history of the NFL improved their completion percentage over time spent playing. This kid was made to play for Buffalo big, strong, tough blue-collar type and some team is going to get a really good QB if they allow him some time to develop.

A monkey throwing darts at the draft board could have done just as well. Simple go back and look over every draft year to see the talent missed and no quality QB. Those people failed to properly identify needs and the talent to fill those needs. A WR for two first round picks and a fourth when the team didn't yet have an established franchise QB to throw to him was moronic. Even more so when just after the draft that year the FO came out and said they were still looking for that big, tall red zone target. Go back and look at the drafts for those years along with the free agent signings and then tell me a quality GM couldn't have done any better.

Good god man! One of Buddy Nix's first statements as GM he said "we're not that far away" and the team then proceeded to go 4-12 with an eight-game losing streak to open that 2010 season. The team had enough talent to win games they just were devoid of quality coaching and a GM who knew what he was doing. Anyone else recall one of his first signings to fix the offensive line was Cornell Green at RT and he lasted a few games. I swear that a drunken Bills fan could have been more effective at RT by just falling over to obstruct the defensive player's ability to move towards the QB. Nix's ideas on offensive linemen were ridiculous in that he thought any tackle could play OG and that any big bodied 300lb, 6'+ person could be an offensive lineman. To put it delicately the man was a moron! He couldn't identify quality talent if they came up and kicked him in his arse. Look at his first draft by selecting CJ Spiller a "waterbug" that Chan Gailey wanted instead of a sorely needed offensive tackle. So After taking over for Trent Edwards who was released outright after three starts in three games. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick proceeded to run for his life for the next five games, literally. No other player in his first draft (2010)was worth a damn save Arthur Moats a 6th round pick at LB who was never really a full-time starter in Buffalo. Yes, Nix managed to lure Mario Williams into Buffalo and gave him 100 million dollars to play defensive end mostly because he was so inept at drafting he couldn't identify quality pass rushing talent in the draft. He missed on JPP, JJ Watt among other talents. I could go on and on but I would just be wasting my time talking about someone who should have never been a Buffalo Bills GM. A 70-year-old retired head scout. Marv Levy, Russ Brandon shouldn't have been GM's either. Just be grateful we Bills fans now have a real GM along with a decent head coach that isn't going to be micromanaged by the owner. Any mistakes they make or if they fail at least we Bills fans know that real NFL people qualified to do the job gave it their best shot.

It wasn't just Whaley that went as it was him and the entire Buffalo Bills scouting staff. I heard stories about how bad those guys were at their jobs. I think they were all going to be fired long before the draft and it just made no sense to fire them until draft after the draft. I also don't think McD trusted them to properly evaluate QB talent after EJ. Plus, he might have wanted to see if he could make things work with Tyrod Taylor. On another note, this FO looks like they want Josh Rosen. http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/index.ssf/2018/02/josh_rosen_to_the_buffalo_bills_is_what_ive_heard_repeatedly_says_eric_galko.html

Oh man I agree and probably why I put so much into each players draft grade even if it's from the NFL network now.

Back then they had pro football weekly which was a godsend if you loved pro football and nothing else came close. There were reasons that Kelly and Marino fell in that year's draft. Kelly with his severe shoulder separation and Marino with his reported weed abuse. Both were winners in College though.

Naa, Everything this regime has done the past year to dump the big names with their big cap hits for picks tells me that this is the year they get their franchise QB. Right now everything is all smoke and mirrors because they don't want other teams to know who they like. One of the top six QBs will be a Buffalo Bills after April. I think this FO likes Darnold and are setting up plans just in case the Browns and Giants pass on him. I highly doubt they will give up the farm for the lesser graded players just to pick one. Rosen, Mayfield, Allen all grade about the same with Jackson pretty close and Rudolph not far behind them. The worst case scenario is Rudolph at #22 and best case is Darnold at #2. They could still trade up outta the 12 spot should one of the top four fall past the 6th pick.

I agree with this and I think the only reason for trade talks is if the Browns and Giants don't want Darnold as their #1 guy. Then and only then it would make some semblance of sense to trade the farm for that elite QB. Darnold at 7.0 which is what they graded Wentz at. All the other QB's grade pretty close with Rosen at 6.1, Allen & Mayfield at 6.0. Jackson at 5.9 and Rudolph at 5.6. Like the 1983 draft, I think we could see six QB's go in the first round. Of all those 83 QBs, #1 Elway, #7 Blackledge, #14 Kelly, #15 Eason, #24 O'Brien, #28, Marino. Only one was a bum, 2 were starters and three were HoFes. What the difference between this year and past years is that this GM/scouting dept finally knows what they are doing and aren't just grabbing for straws like the team did with JP Losman to fill a need. What the team also needs to do that they failed at in past years is to truly develop a young QB. If they get Darnold I could see starting him day one and all the rest all need time to develop. I wouldn't be unhappy should the team not move up if Darnold is already gone. Then take one of the top four at #12 if one should drop and if not take BPA at #12 and Mason Rudolph at #22. What's interesting to me is why the Pittsburgh Steelers have so much interest in Rudolph.

I stand corrected. I hadn't noticed that name at the bottom of each and every player scouting report and it looks like he does them all. Miami has stated that all options are on the table and they will look at a QB with their first pick. The thing is that Arizona is still looking for a QB and I highly doubt they will be thinking Bradford, Glennen long term. I can see them in the mix to move up if one of the top four/five are there.

Trent Edwards was recommended by the late great Bill Walsh and at first, he looked like he might be special. Drafted by Buffalo in the third round of the 2007 NFL draft, and he came into Buffalo with JP Losman as the starter * (JP is another story entirely) Edwards started in his first season going 5-4. Marv Levy was the GM at that time and I think he Jauron got together to bring the greatest show on turf to Buffalo to make the greatest show on snow. Allow me to explain. After the 2005 season, the owner fired GM/team president Tom Donahoe and sought out an old friend to be his new GM. Marv Levy wanted to be a head coach again so he took the job thinking he could be both GM/HC. Shortly thereafter Ralph Wilson made it very clear that Marv was only ever to be the GM and he needed to hire a HC. Marv settled on two candidates in ex-Chicago Bears HC Dick Jauron and ex-Green Bay HC Mike Sherman. After the Sherman interview, Levy stated that he blew his socks off so anyway he, later on, hired Jauron. Jauron hired ex-St Louis OC Steve Fairchild to be the new OC in Buffalo along with Perry Fewell as his DC. Steve Fairchild was the Rams OC for three seasons under HC Mike Martz (2003-2005)and he didn't call the plays, Martz did. This is relevant because Fairchild changed the offensive playbook from Erhardt-Perkins to Air Coryell. Basically moving to a deeper passing scheme (Mike Martz's scheme) like the Rams had during their super bowl run with Dick Vermeil as the Rams HC and Martz as OC. Now if you know anything about that deep passing Martz scheme it really only worked when they had an all-pro offensive line and Marshall Faulk out of the backfield. Back then Martz took over as the Rams HC after Vermeil retired and his passing scheme with calling deep passing plays kept getting his QBs killed. Kurt Warner hurt his hand badly and wasn't the same for a few years so Marc Bulger took a beating for a while until Martz was fired in St Louis after 2005. If you follow Martz he went to Detroit next as OC for two years, SF for one year and finally his last two years in the league as OC was for the Bears where his scheme kept getting Jay Cutler killed. This is all relevant because Trent Edwards played in a West Coast offensive scheme in college at Stanford and wasn't familiar with an NFL deep passing scheme. So, Trent only got one season to learn that scheme from Fairchild in 2007 as Fairchild after that season to the head coaching job in college at Colorado. If you know anything about Bill Walsh's WCO it's an offense mostly predicated on a short passing scheme like an elongated handoff. Bill Walsh's West Coast Offense differs from traditional offense by emphasizing a short, horizontal passing attack to help stretch out the defense, thus opening up options for longer running plays and longer passes that can achieve greater gains. This is kinda why Ewards was noted for being "captain check down" because that was the scheme he was used to running. After Failchild left Buffalo the Bills then promoted the QB coach in Turk Schonert who was a backup QB for a lot of seasons before taking the job as QB coach. It is noted that the Bills switched to a WCO scheme and yet that Martz playbook was still in Buffalo. No offense to Schonert but he had no business being the Bills OC after only one season as QB coach and the team switching schemes away from what Schonert was groomed under. Anyway, that 2008 season started out magical for Buffalo in that they started the season 4-0 by beating the Seahawks, the Jags, the Raiders, and Rams. The Buffalo Bills forums went mental after those four games at that time with so many saying that Trent Edwards looked like a young Joe Montana by beating the Seahawks in the opener 34-10 with Edwards going 20 of 31 for 234 yards, 2 TD's. The next game at Jacksonville with Edwards going 20 of 25 for 239 yards, 1 TD. Beating the Raiders at home in a close game with Edwards running the game-winning drive with 4 min left, Bills win 23-24. Edwards went 24 of 39 for 279 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. The fourth game was a win at St Louis 31-14 with Edwards going 15-25 for 197 yards 1 TD, 1 INT. In those four games, Edwards took 11 sacks. one sack from the Seahawks. Jacksonville 3 sacks. Raiders, 3 sacks. Rams 4 sacks. In the two seasons of playing Trent Edwards had been concussed more than once by some hard hits. the big one came against Arizona in week 5. This was the hit that ruined Edwards career IMO. Concussion protocol is different in today's game and Edwards would not have been allowed to return until he was medically cleared and perhaps even needing to sit out the rest of the season. He returned the next week against San Diego in beating the Chargers and he looked good by going 25 of 30 for 261 yards, 1 TD. In today's game that hit by Adrian Wilson would have been a huge fine and even a suspension The thing is concussions can have lingering effects and the more hits you take after a severe concussion the more it can affect you and cause complications. Edwards wasn't sacked in that Chargers game but he was sacked 2x against Miami, 5x against the Jets. As the season went on you could see Edwards wasn't the same player we all saw at the beginning of the season. So yeah. In the end, Edwards was a Broken QB IMO.

Great news! I hope they draft him with that #2 pick and Darnold goes first to the Browns. The Jets then get Mayfield or Allen and Denver gets whomever they don't choose. Or Buffalo can trade up to four and select whomever the Jets don't select...that is if they like that guy. I'd rather Mayfield or Allen without giving up the entire farm for a guy who grades around the same. I think so too unless Buffalo gets in front of them at 2 or 4...and even then they still might go after Jackson or Rudolph.

Two first round picks oughta do it...Whaley approves.

Like someone else pointed out that this draft is very deep at certain positions and not so deep at others. The QB's grade from Darnold at 7.0, Rosen 6.1, Allen and Mayfield 6.0. Jackson 5.9. Even Mason Rudolph grades at 5.6. Why would anyone trade the farm for anyone other than Darnold when the next three guys are graded about the same. IF Darnold is sitting there at #2 then go for it and if not wait to see if any drop. This draft is filled with RB's, OG, OC, DT, LB. the positions in short supply are pass rusher, WR, CB, LT. BADOBILZ listed these in another thread.

Notice at the end he criticises him for being a second late with a pass and he did that often last year. At the NFL level, those passes will result in turnovers. He is a future NFL star if you have the patience to develop him properly and set up an offense to suit him. The problem is it may take a year or more and the end result might not be what you want. He is a gamble and hence his grade of 5.9. Like Josh Allen, Jackson has a very high ceiling if he is allowed to develop properly and he has the coaches to set it all up for him. Like Allen, Jackson had to it all himself last year with a bad line, bad receivers. Both their grades are very similar and both come with risk is all I've been saying. The kid has flaws that the scouts think can be fixed.

No offense to you as I see the tweet. I have a difficult time believing that he is the only one writing that draft tracker as the NFL has 50+ writers and Zierlein has only worked for NFL.com since 2015! That tracker has been there for quite a few years. No single writers name is on that tracker that I see and most times when you have a single contributor their name is on their work. I see that he lists his own mock draft as do other writers and they put their names to it. Here is a link to the tracker in 2014 before Zierlein even worked for NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-grade