Nihilarian

I posted the chart to see if it would actually stay as I saw it as a chart. Then added more to it with a link explaining everything. you were a bit fast on the uptake

Historic Success Chart The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: 1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%) 2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%) 3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%) 4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%) 5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%) 6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%) 7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%) https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round Eric Ebron was a 1st round pick Gronk, Ertz were 2nd rounders Kelce, cook were 3rd rounders Kittle was a 5th rounder From Iowa Anyway, if you look at the CBS mock drafts you see Hock going at #7 to #19 and most have him going at #12 to GB. The kid is the complete package at TE and blocks like Gronk. He dropped one pass out of 51 and was the first sophomore to win the John Mackey award as the nation's top TE. He also won the big ten TE of the year award. Buffalo has never had a TE this good Interesting article, https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/t-j-hockenson-the-better-iowa-te-prospect

Perhaps I should have phrased it differently to what you suggest as I also feel that McD had considerable influence on the Beane hire as they previously had worked together in Carolina. The Pegula's did interview four people for the GM job. Also, the Bills model under these new owners is no longer flawed in my view. It started that way as Brandon had great influence over these new owners at first and I think that changed quickly after they fired Rex Ryan. My take is the new owners in not knowing anything about how to run an NFL team kept Brandon to help them run their new team. Once his character came into question and he resigned. It was then Kim Pegula took over as president. From what I see/read the Pegula's are not involved in the football side of the Org.

While I like the pick the kid has not been one of the 30 players to visit the Buffalo Bills pre-draft George Kittle, 49er TE had 88 receptions for 1337 yards and was the 8th best receiver last year. Travis Kelcie, KC TE had 103 receptions for 1336 yards 10 TDs and was the 10th best receiver last year. Zack Ertz, Philly TE had 116 receptions for 1163 yards, 8 TDs and was the 16th best receiver last year. Honorable mention to Jered Cook , Eric Ebron. In 2017 Gronkowski was one of the best run blockers while also was the 10th best receiver in the league and a game changer for the Patriots his entire career! Also was 12th best in 2015. Having a TE like one of these men can be a game changer for the team and with that size, it makes it very difficult for a linebacker to keep pace or a DB to make a tackle. A good tight end is a QB's best friend as a downfield outlet and can be a great asset in blocking for the run or pass. Hockenson can do both very well as he pancakes in blocking and is a good deep threat.

Whaley was a GM in name only as he had little actual power. He basically couldn't because Brandon was the team president! When team owner Ralph Wilson was team president for decades he had his hands in/on everything in the football side of the Org too. Wilson was in the draft room every draft and he was "helping" make choices. Kinda why the team didn't draft QBs for so many years and instead drafted a lot of RBs, CBs with those first round picks. It took Rex Ryan telling the media that Brandon was so involved in the football process that the team president/head marketing man in the org was in the teams "cut room" and on the phone to players instead of doing his job in the Bills front office. You can't really get more involved in the football side of the team than to be talking to players about to be released during the cut downs. Brandon was so involved football side of the org since he took over for GM Marv Levy as de facto GM in 2008 that when the new owners took over he directed them to do the very same things that the late owner was doing with the team. Thankfully, the Pegula's saw the error in this when they hired/fired Rex Ryan and then hired Sean McDermott. Rather than listen to Brandon who was moved to only the FO of the Bills, Sabres, Bandits, Americans. They consulted with many, many NFL people before they hired McD and then gave him the power to select the next GM. Unlike Wilson, Brandon I think these new owners are "hands off" the football side now.

I thought so too. Now for the catch highlights! The kid dropped one pass in 51 targets... Potential generational talent!

I heartedly agree about Juan Castillio as he should have never been hired. There was an immediate downturn in the run game from Greg Roman/Anthoney Lynn who built a #1 run game to what Castillio did. Yards per attempt went from #1 two years in a row in 2015-16 down to 14th in 2017 under Castillio and it was even worse at first, this with the very same running QB and lead back. McCoy went from a 5.4 yards per attempt in 2016 to 4.0 in 2017 and it was worse at first until McCoy turned it up on his own in the second half of the season. Last season without Incognito/Woods the yards per attempt went to 21st. While the actual overall yardage and #5 in rushing attempts don't look so bad... it's because of QB Josh Allen was the leading rusher with 631 yards rushing at a whopping 7.1 yards per attempt. The Bills went from a power or gap scheme means you have double teams at the point of attack and the way you cut the defense is with double teams or kick out blocks. The zone scheme is much more complex! The wide zone or outside zone, the way you cut the defense is to stretch the front side and then the backside you cut the defenders. That's how you create seams by cutting the defenders so there is no backside pursuit. The tight zone or inside zone is different so that you have some double teams but different from the power/gap scheme but it still requires cutting the defender. I think we can all see which was the more successful blocking scheme.

Gotta go with the weakest position on the team and the kid who could have the greatest impact. The TE from Iowa TJ Hockenson who can both catch and block. When was the last time the Buffalo Bills had a player like this...like never?

No need to worry about this years offensive line and here is why! If Josh Allen can survive last years craptastic line which was one of the very worst the bills have fielded in over a decade, he will be alright with this new group. Opposing teams now have to be scared to death of his running ability in which he literally ran away from Miami LBer Kiko Alonso repeatedly. Made him look foolish! They will let him throw the ball and put a spy on him instead of all-out blitzing like they would any other young QB because of his ability to break long runs. The Bills FO has tape on all these free agents picks ups so they know what they are getting with each player! Morse is a veteran stud at his position of center and he will help Allen immensely by calling the protections. Spain is a good veteran LG and he will make Dawkins at LT look/play better. Long was holding his own at OG with the Jets so he should lock down that RG position and Nsekhe should take over at RT. Dawkins 6'5'' 320Lbs Spain 6'4'' 330Lbs Morse 6'6'' 305Lbs Long 6'5'' 318Lbs Nsekhe 6'8'' 330Lbs No defense in the NFL is going to roll over these beefy monsters! I doubt we will see another Joey Bosa type episode against that right side again as we had with Mills, Miller in there. Pass protection should be good as well as run blocking. It could look even better should the FO draft some O linemen in this upcoming draft. Wyatt Teller was a 5th round pick and he was one of the best Bills linemen last season in only allowing 8 pressures in 8 games and he is probably a backup. No more worries about the O line, get some sleep! Wanna worry about something, worry about the TE position!

I don't know man, as that line looked like one of the very worst the Buffalo Bills have ever fielded in the first half of the season. Teller came in and things picked up as he only allowed 8 pressures in 8 games and although he looks like a backup on paper right now. That kid might have something to say about being a backup. Anyway, offensive line players usually play better when they have some decent talent next to them and it goes the opposite way when they don't. LG Dawkins should play better with a decent starter next to him at LG in Spain. Spain, Morse, and Long should lock down the middle. Morse is a huge upgrade at center and shouldn't be that far off from Eric Wood. Long was a decent starter for the NY Jets at OG so he should do okay. The question is at right tackle and it looks like Nsekhe will take that spot. Even if this year's starting unit gets to 15th or so overall. That is still a big help to that rookie QB who shouldn't have even started last season as he was supposed to sit and learn. It's the run game that concerns me the most as they were pretty crappy in yards per attempt last season under Castillo (21st). With this new revamped line and Mccoy, Gore I can see the Bills getting back to a top-five run unit. Here's hoping!

I already agreed it was the Pegula's choice with both hires. This whole thing started because you said, "Unfortunately the decision was made by two people who don't have a pro football brain. Terry and Kim Pegula. I don't believe anyone else in that room, Russ Brandon, Doug Whaley or the person making the coffee had any say." When clearly both Whaley and Brandon had debated the hire of Rex Ryan and they said so in their own words! Sounds to me like you state it was a snap hire... when in fact the Pegula's talked it over with many, many NFL people before they hired McD.  You want the last word by refuting the links I posted of what actually happened, go ahead! Even when you clearly state something...then go on to refute it. I can see you choose to believe what you want to believe. I won't be responding to any more speculation.

This is what you stated and you make that statement with nothing to back it up but speculation. "Whaley, who was in the room for the interview process that led to Rex getting hired, has been in Buffalo since 2010. That's seven seasons of the soon-to-be 17-year drought. Brandon has been here for nearly two decades of this drought. He was the one who hired Whaley. He's the one who helped hire Doug Marrone. And yes, he's the one who told Pegula not to let Rex Ryan leave the building. He texted Rex with advice for how to woo the Pegulas." https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2016/12/can_the_pegulas_trust_doug_whaley_and_russ_brandon_to_help_hire_bills_next_coach.html "After an extensive search, conducted by myself, Kim (Pegula), Russ (Brandon), and Doug Whaley, the Buffalo Bills have hired a new head coach and that coach is Rex Ryan." "We went into this process very open-minded, the four of us. There was a lot of arguing, a lot of debating, which is always healthy." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ "Q: What made you decide that Rex was your guy? TP: The first round of the interviews were broad-type questions. When we called him back and got into the nitty gritty, Doug hit him with all this stuff that put me to sleep (Laughs). That’s when we knew that Rex could be our coach, if he wanted to be. We just felt that he was our guy and trust me, we had some pretty impressive people that we felt could the Bills coach, but we said, “Hey, let’s go after Rex.” Russ told me, “Don’t let him out of the building.” https://www.buffalobills.com/news/complete-transcript-rex-ryan-s-introduction-14782098 I posted a link which stated that the Pegula's took their time and consulted with many, many NFL people before hiring McD. This wasn't a snap decision on either hire by the owners like you suggest. The links I posted to support this and it is not just my speculation. Yes, the Pegula's had the final decision on who they hired to be the head coach of their NFL franchise. Bottom line to my main point, Doug Whaley had a voice and backed the Rex Ryan hire from what I read.

It's going to interesting to see how this line starts off in preseason as is it looks like Dawkins LT, Spain LG, Morse C, Long RG, Nsekhe RT. LT is the same and should play better with a solid starter at LG, C is a huge upgrade, RG should be an upgrade from Miller who couldn't get out of his own way. RT is the only question. Dawkins had a very down year last year in my view because of the poor play next to him at LG and the team might just look to upgrade at #9 with Jawaan Taylor, Jonah Williams. In any event, the 2019 Buffalo Bills O line should be much improved over last seasons debacle even without an early draft choice for the line.

I'm not arguing the fact that Rex Ryan killed the 2014 defense with his crappy outdated scheme. What I should have responded to was that it was partly Doug Whaley's fault because he had a voice in that head coaching interview and either because of negligence on his part in not voicing concern about the hire or stupidity because he failed to look deeper into the situation. Whaley was there and he had a say and he chose not to make it. Also, I still contend that you need a top NFL QB to win games in the current NFL as it's now a passing league. It's why the Bills dumped Tyrod and drafted a new rookie QB.

Do you have links to all this info or were you in the rooms? I can recall reading that for Rex Ryan it was Russ Brandon that stated: "don't let him leave the building"! I believe the new owners went with this because he had been the real de facto GM since Marv Levy retired. If Doug Whaley had stepped up and said anything about hiring Rex Ryan as the wrong thing to do... I doubt they hire him. As far as for hiring McD. The Pegula's stated that they looked at four candidates brought in by Doug Whaley. "Whaley, brought forth those four candidates as he thought they were best qualified for the job. (Sean McDermott, Kris Richard, Harold Goodwin and Anthony Lynn)." Terry and Kim Pegula alluded to the numerous recommendations on McDermott’s ability as a head coach, but they wouldn’t go into specifics on who exactly recommended him. “There were players, previous and current, he has been with that we talked to.” Kim Pegula said. “Other coaches and staff that he’s worked with along the way. We feel confident in this hire.” Terry shortly added afterward that multiple players and executives around the NFL commended McDermott’s capabilities. https://billswire.usatoday.com/2017/01/12/bills-owners-open-up-about-hiring-sean-mcdermott-faith-in-gm-doug-whaley/

It wasn't just Jerry making those player decisions anymore as his sons stopped him from drafting Johnny Manziel in 2014. Instead, the Cowboys selected an offensive guard in Zack Martin who has been an all pro, pro bowl OG. Yes, Jerry sucks but he isn't the only one calling the shots anymore, https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/stephen-jones-reveals-jerry-jones-criticism-of-cowboys-not-drafting-johnny-manziel/

Regardless of points per game... The 2015 team won only 8 games The 2016 team won 7 only games As I pointed out both years teams had a #1 dominate run game with a running QB and it's my contention that they didn't win more games because they were near last in passing the football. Like I said you won't win many games by going 28th in passing yards in 2015, 30th in passing yards 2016. Now, look at 2018 to see Buffalo going 6-10 with the 31st passing game with a defense that was #2 in yards allowed. and while I agree that Rex screwed the pooch with his defensive scheme no question by killing the pass rush. Rex Ryan effectively killed the #1 pass rush in the league by having that elite pass rushing D line taking on blockers and dropping into pass coverage instead of rushing the passer. Nevertheless, Bills starting QB Tyrod Taylor was the 23rd ranked NFL QB in 2015, 25th ranked NFL QB in 2016. My point was, you can have a dominant offensive rushing attack (#1 in the league under Ryan) and still not win many games.

Playoff quality? Perhaps the defensive players. The 2015 Bills offense was 31st in passing attempts and 28th in passing yards, 20th in passing TDs. 2016 saw the Bills pass game slightly regress to 32nd in the NFL and 30th in yards, 27th in passing TDs. The Bills 2015-2016 lacked a quality QB who could make plays through the air. The year previous the Bills went 9-7 with Kyle Orton at QB and the run game was 25th in yards. Like I said the biggest flaws with Nix, Whaley were that they failed to find that franchise QB. Nevertheless, Whaley was in a position to thoroughly vet Rex Ryan when they were interviewing him for the HCing job. With Whaley being the GM he should have asked what scheme he intends to use with the defense and what players he would want to draft to improve it. Ryan was hired Jan 13, 2015, and I can only imagine that while he was interviewed twice they must have asked how, what, when with the defense. During the interview process, Ryan must have let them know that he intended to have Dennis Thurman run his defense again because at that same time it was known that Jim Schwartz would not be back. Anyone with a pro football brain should have known that the 3-4 scheme that Ryan ran with the Jets depended on the D line players eating up blockers while not rushing the passer so the more talented linebackers could make the plays. In Buffalo, because the D line was far more talented then the LBers, Schwartz ran a 4-3 that allowed the D linemen to rush the passer and only occasionally dropped into pass coverage. Clearly, Rex Ryan should have never been hired in the first place unless he was to keep Jim Schwartz as DC. There were real reasons as to why Doug Whaley was fired as GM and why he is no longer working as a GM in the NFL.

Most Bills fans here thought Buddy Nix had upgraded the team with talent and things were on the rise...We all saw that 100 million spent on a pass rushing DE and having the best pass rush in the league didn't equate to more than 9 wins. No playoffs! Most Bills fans here thought Doug Whaley had upgraded the team with talent and things were on the rise...We all saw that having the best run game in the league in yards, TDs, YPC didn't equate to more than 9 wins. No Playoffs! Those men made many, many mistakes and then attempted fixes with bandaids. Both, their biggest flaws were not finding a franchise QB. Beane made some mistakes this season with the backup QBs in obtaining them late. But ultimately found quality backups to help the rookie QB. Beane made huge mistakes with some receivers and O linemen but then he might have been influenced by assistants who were bad at their respective jobs. McD and Beane have replaced those assistants along with others (ST coach) who were also bad at their jobs. Beane found his franchise QB and somewhat moved mountains to obtain him by trading up to the #7 spot and then trading up again to get the MLB at the #16 spot. What happened last season was due to some bad decisions with a bad O line, bad WRs, bad assistant coaching and little to no run game. Bottom line is "winning cures everything"! Ten wins and beating the Patriots once this season will lock Beane down as the best since Polian. Six wins like Vegas suggests will mean Beane failed in a lot of his player choices.

Just Rodak parroting Vegas odds for the Bills at 6 wins. The thing is, so much is going to depend on how well the run game works this season! If they can get back into the top five with the run game which will mean those choices in free agency are working out. Which should also mean the pass blocking is also improved. Running the ball and getting Allen to throw more short passes to move the chains should be a huge help to the already decent defense. I can see the 2019 Buffalo Bills at 10-6 and even beating the Patriots with that loaded defensive backfield.

Thanks! What I think a lot of evaluators missed with their assessment with Allen was when you look at his backstory, Josh Allen was brought up on a farm and is no stranger to hard work as his dad ingrained a work ethic, up before daylight and home after dark. Football is a cakewalk compared to the life of farm work. Josh grew up a Fresno State fan and tailgated with his parents. He attended the Bulldogs' summer camps and even retrieved the kicking tee during a few games (former coach Pat Hill once yelled at him to get off the field). One of Josh's favourite moments was meeting Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr. Brett Favre is his football hero. What I think those evaluators missed on was just how much Josh loves the game. In a time when so many players are so concerned about money, I think Josh Allen would play NFL Football for free.

It was exactly that! What a lot of people forget is how much of a hard time Bullough gave Bruce his first year with Buffalo. Bruce had some poor training habits which limited his effectiveness in his first season. Bullough rode Bruce hard that first season and was always yelling at him and needless to say, Bruce probably hated him for it. Not sure how or why and perhaps it was Bullough's riding him hard, Smith worked like a mad man to get into shape after that first season. I can recall stories of him wearing out exercise bikes and causing them to rust from all the sweat. After that, he quickly became a sack master.

Josh Allen had the highest ceiling and yet was considered by many a project QB that was supposed to sit and learn for a year like Patrick Mahomes. Yes, Allen had accuracy issues and concerns he was well aware of and started working on his issues right after his college season ended. Jordan Palmer started working with Allen and they worked on his biggest issue which was his footwork. Palmer stated he fixed his footwork but alas we all saw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tIb-B4sGd8 It was Allen's backstory that was so impressive as after high school he was a 6'3'' 180lb scrawny kid with a big arm. With no football scholarships to a division one football program, he attended a junior college. After his first season in JC, he sent emails to every division one football college out there (over 1000) By this time he was 6'5'' 210 with a big arm. Only two colleges responded Eastern Michigan, Wyoming offered him a scholarship and once EM found out he visited Wyoming they rescinded their offer. While at Wyoming he basically carried his team to a winning season and a bowl game win. Plus, Allen didn't play in a gimmie offense with short passes, bubble screens to pad his stats as he was in a pro-style deep passing scheme. Besides, anyone on offense who had touched the ball in 2016 was gone from the team in 2017. So basically Allen was dealing with a bunch of rookie receivers learning how to do their jobs. It's not just the off the charts physical intangibles, it's his competitiveness, his fire, his burning desire to win which is so infectious that it fires up his teammates. The kid is big, strong and has arguably the most powerful arm in the league. Allen played in the snow and cold at Wyoming so he should fit right into Buffalo's blue-collar town. What's not to love?

I believe he had a third round grade on Allen... Good stuff. Thanks for posting RR.