Honestly, 10-6 and a playoff berth.
I think the offense can produce to similar levels, just in a slightly different way. Less reliant on chunk plays, working a little more in the short/intermediate areas.
I have Rexpectations on defense. I think the margins for success/failure are pretty small. If the Bills could've improved on their points per game total by 3 points per game, that would've been good for 7th in the league in 2015 (19.4 PPG conceded). I think that's roughly where they'd need to be if the offense can sustain its production. Better fits with personnel, better communication.
It's no secret that I have my doubts about ST, especially kickoffs. It's a wait and see issue. The investment in ST needs to pay off.
This is a talented team. Rex has enough for what he likes to do and will get Dareus back in Week 5, Lawson (hopefully) in Week 9.