Dont Stop Billeiving

Seemed like every one was just inches beyond the marker as well. Game of thin margins there, so frustrating. Feel like he had kind of a rough patch recently but was absolutely clutch and saved his best game so far for the playoffs. What a draft pick. Actually LOL'd at the above when I saw this live. That kick was huge and just thought this was an understated/hilarious reaction. Diggs is like 'Oh ok.' @wjag great thoughts/observations above! Really think most people underestimated the Colts and they just played great rather than the Bills playing poorly. Josh played awesome (even setting some more records) and anyone saying that 'Bad Josh' showed up on that fumble is being harsh IMO. That was his only mistake of the entire game and Josh trying to make a play instead of taking the safe option is probably what won us this game. Those two really quick/easy scoring drives in the 4th quarter were such a shock. Hines is sooooo slippery and the TEs were giving us fits. Indy was a really tough match up for us without Star/a true 1 Tech DT and their O-line is unbelievable. I thought outside of those two drives though, the defense came up clutch in some really big moments throughout the game though. For anyone still feeling down about the game, at least we aren't the Seahawks (out of the playoffs) or the Rams (won, but several key injuries including Donald and Kupp). Hope Moss is doing alright, but otherwise I didn't notice any other injuries and we came out pretty healthy. Hopefully all our WRs can get back to 100% by next weekend!

Crazy game, my nerves are shattered. Understandably some raw emotion in this thread, honestly more negativity than I expected though. We've been spoiled by a lot of the recent blowout wins, but think it's normally a different story in the playoffs. I saw it as a perfect storm of three things: 1) The Colts were always going to be a tough match up for us (their offensive line is insanely talented and athletic even without Castonzo, Rivers gets the ball out quick and is rarely sacked, their run defense is elite, etc.) in all aspects except one. On paper, Josh and the passing offense should have given us a clear advantage against their pass defense on paper. I thought this would lead to more scoring, but I wasn't counting on Beasley and Diggs being dinged up and getting nothing from Brown and McKenzie. 2) Frank Reich rolled back the clock and ran out Bill Parcells' strategy against our K-Gun offense in the Super Bowl and it was a brilliant approach. They ran the ball a ton and never snapped the ball until there was only a couple seconds (sometimes ZERO!?!?!) on the play clock to keep Josh on the bench and limit our chances to score. 3) We just got the best possible A+ performance from Indy, I'm convinced that game was very close to or at their ceiling as a team. Rivers was on fire and mistake-free which is a lethal combination. Their defense, which had dropped off a cliff against the pass, turned in its best game in several weeks and their repeated second-half struggles weren't an issue today. A number of their players that have been slumping responded with huge contributions. I was cautiously optimistic about a Bills win by 7-10 points, but not a blowout. Glad to see Josh play well and see us end the 'years without a playoff win' streak. Hopefully our WR corps will be closer to 100% for next week and we can go on a run. Go Bills!

Legend, thanks buddy! And just looked it up on Spotrac. 'Chris Harris signed a 2 year, $17,000,000 contract with the Los Angeles Chargers, including a $7,500,000 signing bonus, $9,500,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $8,500,000. In 2020, Harris will earn a base salary of $2,000,000, a signing bonus of $7,500,000 and a incentive bonus of $750,000, while carrying a cap hit of $6,500,000 and a dead cap value of $9,500,000.' Almost one of those 2 year deals that's actually a one year contract. The Chargers can cut him and save $7.5 million this season so it's possible he becomes available. He'll be 32 and sounds like he had a bit of a down year, but seems like he'd be interested in the Bills. Just a separate question of whether we would want him...

Don't have a Twitter account or know how to embed tweets here, but Chris Harris Jr just tweeted 'people who passed on Josh Allen looking real crazy right now lol.' Doesn't really matter what he thinks, but that's the same guy that said he couldn't wait to play Allen last year and thought he was terrible. We've all seen the growth and hard work from Allen, but cool that opposing players are noticing that and giving him the respect he has earned.

Agree 100%, we are another solid lineman, a speed back, and another athletic seam-busting TE away from being the bonafide top offense in the league. I think all three can be accomplished in the draft. Regarding the TE position, Kyle Pitts would be perfect, but will likely be gone by our first round pick. Pat Freiermuth could be good value in the 2nd round and I'm a huge fan of Tommy Tremble out of Notre Dame later in the draft. A guy who can be a receiving threat, but is a fierce blocker and loves contact. It's awesome how much Diggs already seems to love being in Buffalo and he hasn't even played in front of the home fans yet. Wild. Completely true, we actually held Derrick Henry to his worst game of the year and that guy will likely get a couple MVP votes. Like you and others said, I respect the threat that Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines represent, but I'm confident that our run defense had improved a lot and is up for the challenge. Oliver actually knocked Nelson back a couple times in that preseason game, my first real 'Wow' moment of Oliver in a Bills jersey. As a Notre Dame fan, I got to watch Nelson play for 3 years and he was and still is the most impressive linemen I've ever seen in college football. Even without Castonzo, the Colts line is still super talented and athletic. Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith are all top 10 at their positions in the league. The weaker links are definitely Veldheer at LT and Glowinski at RG, hoping to see the defense collapse the pocket in those spots and make Rivers wish for the bus home! Josh and Daboll have both gone on record saying that 'Josh needs to get hit in order to settle his sugar-high/jitters.' I don't want to see too many designed runs for Josh, but a QB draw or sweep (looking at you Knox and Davis, make your blocks!!) on the first drive might be a good idea. And Josh scrambling is still a great weapon against the opposing defense, just be smart and get down #17. Neither did I until the recent back-and-forth between Terry and Tre White (love that man) about Pegula still using a flip phone LOL. Has seemed a little quiet/soft-spoken with the media at times, but nice to see there's a rapport there between the owners and players.

Rock Ya-Sin being ruled out with a concussion is a big development. He's probably their third best CB (after Moore II and Rhodes) and I thought the Colts CB depth would already struggle to match up when the Bills use 10 or 11 personnel, but now they're even thinner. The Colts like to stay in their 4-3 base defense, but spreading them out (while still having a plan to double Buckner) and forcing them to put extra DBs on the field seems like a recipe for success.

Hmm that's really interesting, thanks for the insight. I don't know if I've ever heard of a team electing to only shadow a WR in a certain quarter or time of the game like that as an actual strategy, usually they either shadow a certain player from the start for the entire game or not at all to my knowledge. It's not a bad strategy for a few times as it might surprise and throw a wrench in the opposing team's game plan, but if they are doing that consistently, I'm sure the Bills know it's coming now. In terms of my game reviews, I didn't notice Kenny Moore II (#23) making that type of switch and on most plays throughout the game, I observed him in the slot. My main note for Moore was that he is physical and flashed in run support, but gave up a number of completions especially in the Pittsburgh game where JuJu racked up 9 catches for 96 yards and 1 TD. Moore and the Indy pass defense as a whole have been slumping in recent games after a really strong start to the season and in my opinion, the Bills should have a clear advantage passing the ball on Saturday.

Cheers man. I think you bring up a fair point about McKenzie, guess the memories of him back there fielding punts in 2018 are still haunting me. But similar to a lot of players we've brought in, I think McKenzie has worked really hard and improved (becoming the best version of himself as McDermott would say) and he deserves a shot to be our returner for sure. Still like Roberts a lot and he's an accomplished multiple Pro Bowl returner, but glad we have both for now. We actually agree on the second point you mentioned. I said the same thing in my OP, I believe the Saturday 1 PM slot is a big advantage for the Bills as well against the Colts and any future opponent if we win this weekend. Thanks and Go Bills!

AFC East Champions for the first time in 25 years. 13-3 and the AFC's #2 seed. Swept the division including the hated Patriots. Josh Allen breaking countless records and likely being one of three players in the NFL to receive MVP votes in the coming weeks. Stefon Diggs as the league leader in receptions and receiving yards. The defense rounding into form and taking the ball away like it's 2019. The list of accolades goes on and on, the point is we may have just witnessed the greatest regular season in franchise history. Now it's time for the playoffs and time to break some more records of the post-season variety. Next, we're at home facing the 11-5 Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Playoffs Wild Card Round who are coming off a somewhat shaky win against a 1-15 Jacksonville team. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Colts' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful: ***Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics.*** https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings December 20th- Week 15 Win at Home vs Houston (the Texans (current record: 4-12) have the 13th ranked offense, 30th ranked defense, and 20th ranked special teams) by a score of 27-20: Phillip Rivers- 22/28 for 228 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 0 INTs. Rivers is a cagey veteran QB and the Hyde/Poyer tandem may not be able to confuse him as often as other QBs. In most cases, he reads the opposing defense well, knows the right time to call an audible, and makes the correct decision/throw, but the main issue at this point in his career is his dwindling arm strength. Having played in the warm California weather for so many years and now in a dome in his debut season with Indy, he never had the strongest arm to begin with and now you have to wonder if his arm will hold up in the Buffalo elements (fun fact: 3 of Indy's 5 losses this year have come outdoors). The Colts still have certain packages that they roll out for Brissett as a more mobile QB option, but he was 0/1 in this match up. Rivers was only sacked once and Indy was excellent in pass protection, shutting out JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines- Taylor (83 yards, 5.2 YPC, and 1 TD) is more powerful than I realized, but he's still more athlete than running back at this point in his career IMHO. Hines (43 yards and 8.6 YPC) is super quick and is possibly a top 3 receiving RB in the NFL especially in the screen game. Hines fumbled in the third quarter which was luckily recovered by the Colts. Both backs have benefitted from some enormous college football-sized holes opened up by the Colts' linemen (although their line is now missing a couple key pieces like LT Anthony Castonzo). In some ways, I view the Colts offense as a less dynamic version of the Titans where success comes from leaning heavily on the run game with the QB being counted on to mix in a few throws downfield to keep the other team honest. TY Hilton (4 receptions for 71 yards)- Came up with a huge 40 yard catch to set up the game-winning TD. Still their #1 WR and a true deep threat although his usage is down on the year. Zach Pascal (5 receptions for 79 yards and 2 TDs) and Michael Pittman Jr. (2 receptions for 19 yards)- Pascal is a physical receiver with steady hands who seems to be a favorite target of Rivers in the red zone. He's not going to blow you away with elite speed or athletic traits, but he's a hard worker who has put together a solid career for an undrafted free agent and a powerfully-built receiver who will win with strength and toughness after the catch. Pittman Jr is a more athletic and slightly taller/leaner/younger version who excels on quick slants and uses his height (6'4") and long arms really well against smaller DBs. Colts TEs- Rivers looked Jack Doyle's (2 receptions for 14 yards) way a couple times in the red zone, but the Texans LBs were able to bottle the Indy TEs up on this day. Colts Run Defense- Held David Johnson, Watson, and the back ups to 83 combined rushing yards at 4.0 YPC. Texans went pass heavy given that they were trailing for most of this contest. Colts Pass Defense- Allowed a strong performance from Desean Watson (33/41 for 373 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs) as he willed the Texans back into the game. It should be noted that Houston was without a few of its biggest playmakers due to injury (Will Fuller and Duke Johnson among them). David Johnson had 11 catches for 106 yards which is eye-catching, I wonder if we can get Singletary and Moss going in the screen game this Saturday. Watson was under pressure constantly behind a poor Houston O-line and DeForest Buckner led the way with a game-wrecking performance with THREE sacks (including one that may have saved the win with less than a min to go) and a forced fumble. Denico Autry chipped in with 1.5 sacks as the Colts DTs had a clear advantage against the Texans' center and guards (another way you could read this is that the Colts don't have much edge rushing talent behind a 31 year old Justin Houston). The Colts secondary doesn't inspire much confidence and gave up a wide open 38 yard receiving TD to a guy named Chad Hansen on a major busted coverage (there wasn't a Colt within 10 yards of him). Xavier Rhodes is their #1 CB and is having a bounce back year after bombing off of the Vikings, but they don't have any true difference makers in the DB room. Indy's star LB Darius Leonard put in a strong shift with 9 tackles. Miscellaneous- It felt like Indy was going to dominate this game after going up 14-0 in the first quarter, but they lacked the killer instinct and Houston tied the game with 7 min left and could have won it. From a brief peek at the Colts' fan forums, it's a pattern and a major source of frustration as their team seems to build a lead in the first half, but go cold in the 2nd which has cost them. Indy averaged 6.6 yards per play with a balanced attack. Rodrigo Blankenship can't hold Tyler Bass' jockstrap in terms of kicking power, but he's a steady and accurate NFL kicker and I have to admit I'm a fan of the sports goggles (throwback to Horace Grant maybe). Blankenship snuck a 53 yarder just over the crossbar at the start of the 4th quarter. Indianapolis committed 4 penalties for 35 yards. December 27th- Week 16 Loss Away vs Pittsburgh (the Steelers (current record: 12-4) have the 22nd ranked offense, 1st ranked defense, and 14th ranked special teams) by a score of 28-24: Phillip Rivers- 21/34 for 270 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT. TJ Watt beat the right tackle and hit River's arm, forcing a fumble that was returned to the four yard line and led to a Steelers TD. Rivers threw a beautiful 45 yard deep ball to Pascal for a TD in the second quarter (the arm strength seems to come and go with him sometimes). Threw a pick on another deep ball with just 6 minutes left, overthrowing Pittman Jr and could have thrown a more accurate ball to Pascal on their final play. The Indy line played outstanding in the first half even without Castonzo, but seemed to tire in the second half, ultimately allowing five sacks. Their RT struggled against both Watt and Highsmith, hopefully Hughes can win that match up on Saturday. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines- Indy lost LT Anthony Castonzo to a season-ending ankle injury in their Thursday practice before this game. Taylor (74 yards, 4.1 YPC, and 2 TDs) showed good power on his goal line carries and his blend of speed and strength allows him to gain extra yards after contact. Hines (44 rushing yards and 5.5 YPC with 20 receiving yards) also broke off a 70 yard catch and run on a screen pass that was called back due to an iffy blocking penalty. TY Hilton (3 receptions for 60 yards)- Counted on for some big catches once the Colts were trailing. Probably not as fast as he once was, but can still stretch the field. Zach Pascal (3 receptions for 64 yards and 1 TD) and Michael Pittman Jr. (3 receptions for 38 yards)- Pascal was a difference maker early scoring the TD, but dropped a (slightly high) pass that hit him in both hands on 4th-and-7 with the game on the line. Colts TEs- Doyle (4 receptions for 50 yards) made some key grabs and was able to separate from Pittsburgh's weakened LB corps. Trey Burton had a significant drop on third down with two min to play and seems to be a non-factor for a player who looked like a rising star for the Bears just a couple seasons ago. Colts Run Defense- James Connor (21 yards and 4.2 YPC with 1 TD) didn't get many opportunities as the Steelers trailed for most of the contest and had to throw their way back into the game. Pittsburgh's longest carry of the first half was 3 yards, but the Steelers found more success later on. The Colts defense recorded 0 takeaways for the second straight week. Colts Pass Defense- Ben Roethlisberger (34/49 for 341 yards, 3 TDs, and 0 INTs) had one of his better games passing the ball and really started to dominate the opposing DBs as the game went along. Khari Willis got to Big Ben on a safety blitz for Indy's only sack of the contest as Big Ben continued to get the ball out quickly. In the first half, the Colts led by Leonard and Bobby Okereke did a great job forcing Ben to take the short completion on third-and-long situations and rallying up to make the tackle short of the sticks. However, the tides started to turn after HT as Rock Ya-Sin got torched in single coverage by Diontae Johnson for a 39 yard TD. Kenny Moore (Indy's slot corner) wasn't able to contain JuJu Smith-Schuster (9 catches for 96 yards and 1 TD) either. Pittsburgh got their screen game working and Ebron seemed to find more space over the middle. As talented as Leonard is, he finished this season with a career-low 3 sacks and didn't record an INT for the first time. Miscellaneous- Indy led 21-7 at halftime. Terrell Edmunds dropped an INT in the end zone on the Colts' opening drive that would have prevented a Taylor rushing TD on the next play. Indy averaged 5.4 yards per play and committed 9 penalties for 83 yards. January 3rd- Week 17 Win at Home vs Jacksonville (the Jaguars (current record: 1-15) have the 27th ranked offense, 31st ranked defense, and 18th ranked special teams) by a score of 28-14: Phillip Rivers- 17/27 for 164 yards, 1 passing TD, and 1 INT. More of a dink-and-dunk passing game as Taylor and Hines were getting whatever they wanted on the ground. Threw a pick on a deep ball in the third quarter, underthrowing TY Hilton. The Indy line played outstanding all game, giving Rivers all day to throw, and didn't allow a sack. Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines- Taylor (253 yards, 8.4 YPC, and 2 TDs) had his break out game albeit against a 1-15 Jaguars team that appeared to have quit. The Indy line opened some massive holes and Taylor, often untouched until he was already 5-10 yards downfield, then ran around and through the secondary. Hines (17 rushing yards and 8.5 YPC with 50 receiving yards) was again an effective weapon in the screen game. TY Hilton (3 receptions for 27 yards and 1 TD)- Came up with a great TD catch and a 2 pt conversion as well, getting excellent separation on both. Zach Pascal (2 receptions for 41 yards) and Michael Pittman Jr. (2 receptions for 28 yards)- Pascal also took a jet sweep and showed off some good moves to gain 15+ yards. Colts TEs- Doyle (3 receptions for 17 yards) came up big on a couple third downs, but had a quiet game overall. Cox and Burton didn't register a catch. Colts Run Defense- Dare Ogunbowale (50 yards and 3.6 YPC) has been Jacksonville's lead back with James Robinson out injured and didn't have much room to run. While their pass defense has dropped off a cliff, Indy's run defense is still stingy. Colts Pass Defense- The Jaguars were seriously outmatched here, but Mike Glennon (26/42 for 261 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs) actually managed to put in a respectable performance. Darius Leonard finally made the flash play I was expecting to see, coming free on a blitz and hitting Henne's arm just before he threw, forcing a fumble. The Colts were able to collapse the pocket and sack Henne SIX times with Jacksonville's line having no answer for Buckner in particular. The Colts pass defense seemed to go into prevent mode after going ahead 20-0 and gave up some quick scores, getting burned by Laviska Shenault Jr (6 receptions for 68 yards and 2 TDs) especially. Miscellaneous- Indy led 20-7 at halftime, but again squandered a ton of chances to put the game away and gave the Jags a chance (had the ball in a 6 point game with only four min left). A random note, but I've rarely seen a guy play as hyped up as Leonard. A routine tackle? Big celebration. An incomplete pass? Big celebration. After the forced fumble above, Leonard nearly took the roof off the building. In a season with no fans, you need guys who can bring the juice and Leonard does for this defense. Blankenship missed a 50 yarder short as time expired in the first half and another in the 3rd quarter. Indy averaged 6.8 yards per play and committed 1 penalty for 15 yards. January 9th - Wild Card Playoff Round Game: Indianapolis Colts (current record: 11-5, the Colts have the 12th ranked offense, 7th ranked defense, and 10th ranked special teams) Away vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 13-3, the Bills have the 5th ranked offense, 12th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams) Bills On Offense- The strength of the Indianapolis defense is their front seven with studs like Buckner and Leonard. However, their defense has gotten much worse in yards against/points/turnovers forced in recent weeks after a strong start and are vulnerable in the secondary which is bad news for them against our on-fire passing attack. I also think after playing the Patriots and Dolphins in back-to-back weeks, the Colts should be easier to decipher as we've passed some tougher tests against defenses that were better vs the pass and play a more unpredictable amoeba-type scheme. The main key to the Bills offense will be neutralizing DeForest Buckner (9.5 sacks) and Denico Autry (7.5 sacks) inside and giving Josh time to pick apart the Colts secondary. The Colts aim to get pressure with four rushers without blitzing very often and drop into coverage with an emphasis on preventing the big play (sounds familiar, right?). The main difference from the Bills scheme though is that Indy depends more on man coverage which Allen has shown he can feast on this season. As in past games, the Bills should continue to spread the defense out with 3-4 WR sets while doubling Buckner and leaving an RB or TE in to chip frequently. I can envision a repeat of a game like Week 2 vs Miami where Diggs and Brown were un-guardable on long crossing routes. Bills On Defense- Indianapolis are well-coached by Frank Reich who is squeezing some great production out of a pretty average group of offensive players, is very analytics driven, and is aggressive on fourth downs. That being said, this is very much a throwback team that is built to win with running and defense. A lot has been said about Rivers' arm and age, but he's seen it all and plays the QB position intelligently. Rivers is really hard to sack as well with his awareness in the pocket. Taylor started slow this year having to adjust to the NFL with a shortened offseason, but he's among the top RBs over the past month and is coming off a monster rushing performance vs the Jags. Rivers is obviously a different QB than Tua, but I think the Bills' strategy here has to be similar to the way we attacked Miami: stacking the box to stop the run and sitting on the shorter routes. Hopefully our strong secondary can force Rivers to hold onto the ball for longer than he's like and our pass rush can get home. On Special Teams- The Colts have an above-average special teams unit. Blankenship has proven to be an accurate NFL kicker in his rookie season (32/37 on FGs and 43/45 XPs), but lacks elite power, only hitting 1/3 on 50+ yard FGs despite playing in a dome. Nyheim Hines flashes as a returner with a 10 yard return average and their punter has overcome some serious medical issues to put together a solid season. Lastly, despite McKenzie's electric PR TD last week, I still think Roberts is the better returner with more proven ball security and he should have some room on punt returns, maybe he can answer back and tie McKenzie by finally taking one back to the house. ***After seeing so much discussion and disappointment over this game being played on Saturday at 1 PM EST, I just wanted to add that I think the slightly shorter rest for both teams is an advantage for the Bills. First of all, the Bills played earlier last Sunday and rested their starters for part or all of the game. The Bills are also the home team and don't have to travel. Lastly, while the Bills have played on short rest multiple times this season and dealt with some schedule uncertainty, the Colts have only played on short rest once this season (Thursday Night Football in Week 10).*** Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will hopefully get the chance to do a few more of these in the coming weeks. I think the Colts are a good test for the Bills and a team we should respect. They are well-coached, have a strong defense, and a powerful O-line/run game, but I have doubts about Rivers' ability to throw the ball in the elements against a strong Buffalo secondary and he's so immobile that it gives me hope that we can get pressure with four. More importantly, I think our offense is well-positioned to take advantage of their biggest weakness (pass defense) and that will be the deciding factor on gameday. The Bills are now the #1 team in the NFL in weighted DVOA which gives recent games more strength to get a better idea of how well teams are playing now and with the incredible momentum the Bills are riding, I'm optimistic about a Bills win. All the best, stay healthy, Happy New Year, and Go Bills!

True, but the Colts played later than us this past Sunday with all their starters and now have to factor in the trip to Buffalo. I think the slightly shorter week favors us especially since we rested guys last week.

Agree, needs to be a strong game from Edmunds/Milano/Klein to stop the run and force Rivers to beat us vertically in the passing game. I thought Edmunds possibly played the most physical game of his career on Sunday. He does a lot of things well, but I wouldn't say he's typically a feared hitter. However, he was laying the wood on Miami's RBs/WRs and it was great to see. Hopefully that means the shoulder is back to 100%.

The announcers constantly talking about how Tannehill is a former WR and everything is one of those super annoying talking points...but how many times do defenses seem to forget that and crash down instead of playing contain? Insane to me especially from a division rival like Houston

Actually LOL'd, brilliant thread! The kid looked like he belonged in this league though.

Two seed in the AFC, 13-3, 6-0 against the division, and Josh Allen likely getting MVP votes. Didn't know if I'd ever see it. What an awesome year!

Love Walken. But if this is in reference to my OP, any feedback to improve it? To be fair, it was kind of a tough week for me to review and provide analysis given the uncertainty of who will suit up for the Bills.

Another huge 'this isn't your same old Bills' moment in a season full of them. We were already AFC East Champs, but this game was the moment where that achievement really became real. Dominating the Patriots in Gillette Stadium is something we could only dream about for the past couple decades, but Allen and the rest of the team made it look easy against one of the best defensive minds in NFL history. Maybe it's the fact that I was up until 5 AM and had to fight off the adrenaline for 4 hours of restless sleep, but it still hasn't really sunk in yet just how different, dangerous, and exciting this team is. As I said in the post game thread, our Bills have been a source of happiness and pride and a real bright spot in a very tough year for a lot of people. So proud of my team and my hometown! Looking ahead, we're returning home for the regular season finale against the 10-5 Miami Dolphins who are coming off a miraculous comeback win against Las Vegas. ***There is some uncertainty around whether the Bills will play their starters or back ups***, but same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Dolphins' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful: ***Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics.*** https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings December 13th- Week 14 Loss at Home vs Kansas City (the Chiefs (current record: 14-1) have the 1st ranked offense, 17th ranked defense, and 17th ranked special teams) by a score of 33-27: Tua Tagovailoa- 28/48 for 316 yards, 2 passing TD, 1 rushing TD, and 1 INT. Tua gets the ball out quick and is accurate on short throws, but doesn't seem to threaten the defense vertically very often or very effectively. Threw one nice deep ball to Grant and wasn't at fault for the resulting INT. Tua isn't quite as mobile as I had expected, but can scramble well if the defense allows and shows good awareness/movement in the pocket to avoid pressure in most cases. Executed a successful QB sneak, scoring from the one yard line late in the 4th quarter. Took a big sack to end the first half (wasting a potential FG opportunity) and was sacked for a safety in the second half, but he's a rookie and he'll learn from those mistakes. Similar to the Patriots offense, Tua relies on solid gains on early downs in order to sustain drives as he isn't effective in third-and-long situations. Tua was sacked four times and Miami's offensive line struggled in pass protection. Dolphins Running Game- Miami was working with a short-handed RB group and opted for a more pass heavy game plan. DeAndre Washington was their lead back and was very ineffective (35 yards and 2.7 YPC). Devante Parker- He's their ideal #1 WR coming off his breakout 2019 season, but has struggled with injuries and lacked chemistry with Tua in 2020. Had zero catches and was a non-factor in this game. I believe his status is questionable for Sunday. Mack Hollins (5 receptions for 66 yards) and Lynn Bowden Jr. (7 receptions for 82 yards)- Both of these players have gotten more run recently due to the Dolphins injuries and were the Dolphins two leading receivers in this match up. Hollins, a journeyman back up for most of his career, is a physical possession receiver with steady hands (a C+ version of Tim Patrick on Denver IMO). Bowden Jr is a shifty jack-of-all-trades kind of player that the Raiders gave up on very prematurely IMO and he's a wildcard that has flashed at times for Miami. In college, Bowden stepped up at Kentucky after an injury to their QB and filled in adequately at that position so Miami uses him for the occasional Wildcat formation or trick play where he can use his triple threat ability. Jakeem Grant (3 receptions for 32 yards)- Likely out on Sunday with an ankle injury. Elite speed guy who has carved out a larger role in the Dolphins offense this season (I've always thought he has been under-used in Miami). Their jet-motion and gimmick play weapon in addition to a threat out of the slot. Struggles with drops sometimes (juggled a deep ball that hit him in both hands that resulted in a Mathieu INT just before halftime), but he scares me as a WR and returner simply because there aren't many players on our roster that can run with him. Mike Gesicki (5 receptions for 65 yards and 2 TDs)- The most important player on their offense and a young star having his breakout season in this league. A freak athlete with great hands, refined route-running, and a knack for clutch plays (see his second TD grab where he took the ball away from safety Juan Thornhill in mid-air). In a parallel universe, Gesicki would be the perfect TE to pair with Allen and our current offense to put us over the top. Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe are much less athletic but reliable players who get some targets as well. TEs are heavily featured in Gailey's offense. Dolphins Run Defense- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a tough assignment for any defense and Miami struggled to contain him on a couple toss plays and draws, but ultimately held CEH and Le'Veon Bell to 53 combined rushing yards. Christian Wilkins and his lesser-known defensive linemate Zach Sieler both impressed me with some key TFLs. Miami missed three tackles on a 32 yard Tyreek Hill jet sweep TD. Dolphins Pass Defense- An up-and-down performance from Mahomes (24/34 for 393 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs) with some self-inflicted errors. Mahomes had a nightmare first quarter, but it was more mistakes and poor decision-making on his part rather than what the Miami defense was doing based on what I saw. First, he forced an ill-advised throw on a well covered TE screen to Kelce which was tipped up into the air by Andrew Van Ginkel at the LoS and picked off by Byron Jones. On the next drive, Mahomes fumbled a snap and then took a THIRTY YARD SACK on back-to-back plays (Jerome Baker did well to pursue him and not bite on any of his twists). Finally, Mahomes simply overthrew CEH on a short HB circle route and the ball was intercepted by Eric Rowe. I think Rowe prides himself on being one of the NFL's best at neutralizing TEs, but he and the rest of the Miami defense couldn't guard Kelce (8 catches for 136 yards and 1 TD) at all. Xavien Howard is a ballhawk and made an excellent one-handed INT in the end zone, but he had a mostly poor game vs KC, getting looked off on the Kelce TD and then getting beat by Hill for a long TD pass. The Dolphins do a great job most weeks of confusing the opposing QB and forcing turnovers with their amoeba-type defense so you never know who is rushing and who is dropping into coverage. Miami sacked Mahomes three times (Jerome Baker 2.5, Wilkins 0.5), but failed to get consistent pressure. KC has so much speed and is the best at making you defend every inch of the field, but even considering that disclaimer, Miami isn't especially quick on defense and I think they can be beaten in the wider areas of the field. Miscellaneous- Miami averaged 4.8 yards per play which underlines the lack of explosive plays from Tua and the offense. Jason Sanders was red-hot earlier this season and is still having a really strong year, but he's missed a few kicks in recent weeks. Miami's punt coverage unit allowed Mecole Hardman too much room up the left sideline and he scored untouched on a 67-yard punt return TD. A unusually poor day for their top five ranked special teams. Miami committed 3 penalties for 35 yards. December 20th- Week 15 Win at Home vs New England (the Patriots (current record: 6-8) have the 24th ranked offense, 23rd ranked defense, and 1st ranked special teams) by a score of 22-12: Tua Tagovailoa- In the absence of Gesicki, Parker, and Grant due to injury, Miami did most of their damage on the ground with Tua managing the game and dinking and dunking through the air (20/26 for 145 yards, 0 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 1 INT). Miami's RT Robert Hunt got beat inside and Tua's arm was hit on a throw into the end zone, resulting in a JC Jackson INT. Tua nearly scored on a well-executed RPO keeper in the red zone and later scrambled for the game-winning TD, making a couple of Pats miss in the process. The Pats sacked Tua twice (Adam Butler and Adrian Phillips), but the Miami line had one of their better games albeit against a feeble NE pass rush. Dolphins Running Game- Miami broke their 31 game streak without an 100-yard rusher. Salvon Ahmed (122 yards, 5.3 YPC, and 1 TD) found a lot of room to run off tackle and Matt Breida (86 yards and 7.2 YPC, he's been criminally under-used in the Dolphins offense before this game IMHO) broke off some big gains as well. Miami had four drives of 10+ plays and you could tell that the Patriots defense was gassed by the fourth quarter. Devante Parker- Missed this game with an injury. I believe his status is questionable for Sunday. Mack Hollins (2 receptions for 18 yards) and Lynn Bowden Jr. (6 receptions for 37 yards)- Although the production wasn't huge, both of these players played an even more significant role this week as the top two available receivers on the Dolphins depth chart. In addition, Bowden took a double reverse and after initially looking to throw, made 4-5 defenders miss and picked up a first down with his legs. Jakeem Grant - Missed this game with an injury. Likely out on Sunday with an ankle injury. Dolphins TEs- Adam Shaheen (1 catch for 15 yards) and Durham Smythe (5 catches for 40 yards) stepped up in Gesicki's place and helped bail out Tua on multiple third downs. Dolphins Run Defense- Sony Michel (74 yards and 7.4 YPC) filled in nicely on the ground in Damien Harris' absence and hit some longer runs on the perimeter. Newton was able to pick up some first downs with his legs (38 rushing yards) when the Dolphins pass rush got over-aggressive. Dolphins Pass Defense- Newton (17/27 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs) actually had one of his better games passing the ball, but New England's offense never truly threatened the Dolphins. Meyers (7 receptions for 111 yards) made a number of key catches and made a couple guys miss after the catch. I thought Newton and Meyers did their best work exploiting space over the middle of the field (similar to what Buffalo was able to accomplish in Week 2 on crossing routes). Miami's LB group also struggled to cover James White (4 catches for 52 yards) out of the backfield. Byron Jones locked up N'Keal Harry throughout the game. Xavien Howard continued his impressive takeaway streak and forced a pivotal Jakobi Meyers fumble in the second half. Miami sacked Newton three times (Baker, Sieler, and Ogbah with one each). NE's passing game is already so limited that this wasn't really a fair fight given that Miami's secondary is likely the strength of their entire team. Miscellaneous- NE led this game 6-0 at halftime. Miami averaged 5.5 yards per play buoyed by a really strong rushing performance. Miami faked a punt on 4th-and-7 at midfield and their punter Matt Haack threw an impressive spiral across the field to pick up the first down, but the play was called back on an ineligible man downfield penalty. Jason Sanders missed a 52 yard FG attempt as time expired in the 1st half. Gailey dialed up a successful hook-and-ladder play for a two point conversion in the fourth quarter. Miami committed 7 penalties for 40 yards. December 27th- Week 16 Win AT Las Vegas (the Raiders (current record: 7-8) have the 18th ranked offense, 29th ranked defense, and 13th ranked special teams) by a score of 26-25: Tua Tagovailoa- 17/22 for 94 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. Another dink-and-dunk type of game for Tagovailoa, his completion percentage looks great, but not many highlights to speak of. Tua got away with a sure INT as he tried to throw across his body that the Raiders safety dropped. Ryan Fitzpatrick (9/13 for 182 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs) replaced Tua with around 9 minutes left and was able to move the ball downfield more effectively. Two big throws to Gesicki while he was tightly covered and the final throw to set up the winning FG while getting face-masked stood out. The Dolphins line allowed three sacks. Dolphins Running Game- Myles Gaskin (87 rushing yards and 6.2 YPC along with 82 receiving yards and 2 TDs) is an impressive rookie RB and looked healthy after missing the previous games with an injury. Gaskin was a weapon in the passing game as well catching two TDs while showcasing his vision, ability to break tackles, and elusiveness. Solomon Kindley (the starting rookie RG) missed this game and I thought the interior of the Dolphins O-line got pushed around. Miami failed to pick up some key third-and-short situations as a result. Devante Parker- Missed this game with an injury. I believe his status is questionable for Sunday. Mack Hollins (2 receptions for 42 yards) and Lynn Bowden Jr. (2 receptions and 16 total yards)- Hollins dropped a potential TD late in the game, costing Miami 4 points as they ultimately settled for a short FG, but then made up for it with a big catch to set up the game-winning FG. Bowden Jr picked up a first down with his legs as the QB in a Wildcat formation. Jakeem Grant (5 receptions for 43 yards)- Likely out on Sunday with an ankle injury. The Raiders didn't have anyone who could keep up with Grant and gave him a big cushion to avoid giving up the deep ball. His somewhat unreliable hands resurfaced though on a key 3rd down where he juggled the ball and wasn't able to convert as a result. Mike Gesicki (4 receptions for 54 yards)- Really came alive after Fitz entered the game and made a few key grabs to set up the late Dolphins scores. Dolphins Run Defense- Josh Jacobs was mostly effective (69 yards and 5.3 YPC), but didn't get the ball much as Vegas went pass happy. Wilkins and Sieler combined to stuff Josh Jacobs on a pivotal 4th-and-1 carry. Dolphins Pass Defense- Miami was able to survive a strong game from Carr (21/34 for 336 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs) with some stingy red zone defense. The Raiders were 0-10 on third downs heading into the fourth quarter and Miami did a good job at times of forcing them into third-and-long situations. Eric Rowe got dominated again for the second time in 3 weeks, this time by Darren Waller (5 receptions for 112 yards). Miami's scheme counts on Rowe locking down the opposing TE in single coverage, but Kelce and Waller have made them pay (granted those are two of the top 3 TEs in the league, but I thought the Bills defense that was struggling and injured earlier this year did a much better job of limiting them). It's weird that Flores didn't adjust this element of their defense at all. I also thought Byron Jones really struggled in this match up, getting beaten for pace by Nelson Agholor (155 yards and 1 TD) on multiple occasions including a late 85 yard go-ahead TD and taking bad angles to the ball in the run game. It got me thinking that Diggs or Brown should have the same advantage. Miami sacked Carr 3 times (Van Ginkel 2.0 and Jerome Baker 1.0) and most of the pressure Miami is able to generate comes from their LB blitz packages rather than the defensive line getting home. Miscellaneous- Miami gave up a 32 yard punt return by Hunter Renfrow in the 1st quarter, hopefully there will be some daylight for Roberts to break one on Sunday. Elandon Roberts suffered a significant knee injury in this game and that's a big loss for the Dolphins. They have more athletic and talented players, but he's a smart, instinctive backer who knows Flores' scheme inside out. Miami faked another punt at midfield for the second consecutive week and picked up the first down with a short snap to one of the blockers. Vegas elected to run clock and kick a FG on their last possession instead of scoring a TD which they wound up regretting. Miami committed 5 penalties for 76 yards. January 3rd - Week 17 Miami Dolphins (current record: 10-5, the Dolphins have the 16th ranked offense, 11th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams) Away vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 12-3, the Bills have the 5th ranked offense, 13th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams) ***A lot of this could change based on whether our starters play or not. For the purpose of this section, I'll pretend that our starters will play a significant amount of snaps.*** Bills On Offense- Flores is a solid defensive mind and I like his style of defense in the way that it's so unpredictable who is rushing the passer and who is dropping into coverage. The key is to hold up in pass protection and give the QB time to throw...if that happens, the Dolphins are vulnerable even though Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are one of the best CB duos in the league. They've each had a shaky game recently in my view and I think Diggs and Brown would give them trouble. Eric Rowe has also struggled in the games I've watched and while Dawson Knox isn't Kelce or Waller, his athleticism should allow him to get similar separation in coverage. Miami's LBs are effective blitzers, but the Bills should find some space to run and using McKenzie's speed pre-snap should unsettle them. The defensive line features solid players across the board, but Miami doesn't currently have any elite edge talent and Josh should have time to throw in this match up. As in past games, the Bills should continue to spread the defense out with 3-4 WR sets, picking on Miami's CBs further down the depth chart like Nik Needham/Noah Igbinoghene and running the ball against those lighter boxes. Bills On Defense- With their closer of sorts Fitzpatrick out for the game (get well soon Fitzy), I think the strategy here has to be to stack the box to stop the run and also sit on the shorter routes where Tua typically finds his rhythm and feels comfortable. The goal should be forcing Tua to beat you on deeper, more vertical throws consistently where he has had trouble diagnosing what the opposing safeties are doing pre and post-snap according to some of the Miami beat reporters. Thankfully, we have Hyde and Poyer, two of the best in the league at confusing QBs with their coverages and deception. Furthermore, Miami's line is very average and has been starting three rookies so our defensive line should be able to win the LoS and get pressure. Gaskin and Breida are solid backs who are shifty and can hurt you in the pass game so we need to gang tackle and maintain strong gap integrity. I would bracket Gesicki where possible although Milano is a great neutralizer against TEs and he may be one of the few who can hang with him. Our defense is playing so much better than in our first match up and I have a lot of confidence that Frazier and his guys can make life tough on the rookie QB. On Special Teams- Miami has a very solid special teams unit highlighted by Sanders who has become one of the league's best kickers and Grant who is a dangerous return man. However, with Grant likely out and Sanders dealing with the Buffalo elements, this could eliminate some of their strength in this phase. Miami can be quite aggressive using fake punts and trick plays on special teams so that's something Farwell and his group will have to be prepared for. Lastly, I think Roberts should have some room on punt returns, it would be great to see him finally take one back to the house. Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. I'm very interested to see Tua face our defense for the first time and to see what Josh can do against Howard and Jones (Jones was injured early on during Week 2). Miami is a much improved team this season given their free agency spending and draft haul and they are well coached, but Buffalo is a couple years ahead at the QB position and overall rebuild. If the starters play, I would expect a Buffalo win. All bets are off if we rest some or all of our top players especially Allen as I don't know how we are going to score with Barkley (QB2 really needs to be upgraded this off-season). In my view, I think the ideal plan would be to rest anyone who has even the smallest knock, play the other starters for maybe two series while hopefully building a lead/checking on the Pittsburgh score, and then bringing in the back ups. The number two seed is important to me and it's a tricky line to walk because we also want to protect the health of the players, but I trust McDermott to make the right decision. All the best, stay healthy, Happy New Year, and Go Bills!

@DolFAN93 as a few others have said, opposing fans who can provide some reasonable analysis are always welcome here. You guys have had a pretty nice season so far, Gesicki is a stud and that defense is a tough match up. Hopefully the Bills and Dolphins revive the old rivalry and are the main teams fighting for the division again with the Pats going back to the basement where they truly belong, we can only dream. As for all the Tua discussion, I think the jury is out on him and he has some strengths and weaknesses like any rookie. The game is moving a bit fast for him at the moment understandably and I don't know if Gailey has trusted him with the entire playbook yet, but he throws an accurate ball, shows some decent mobility and awareness in the pocket, and I like his intangibles (leadership and work ethic). His injury history is concerning so we'll see how that goes. Regarding the arm strength argument, we're used to seeing Josh Allen throw the ball around here who has an absolute howitzer for a right arm so it's tough not to notice the difference when other QBs throw sometimes. I think Tua's arm strength is about average, but Gailey's offense doesn't push the ball downfield too much so he doesn't get to throw many deep balls anyways. In summary, if he hadn't played for Alabama and now our division rivals, Tua is probably a guy I'd find easy enough to root for in the league and he deserves some time (and more skilled players around him) to develop like most rookies. Here's to hoping that both teams stay healthy on Sunday and that we will meet again in the playoffs (anyone but the Ravens and Titans)!

Agree 100% unless he is dealing with an injury we don't know about. He seems to be holding onto the ball too long (past the top of his release) so that the ball is sinking right out of his hand. I watched their three previous games as part of my Scouting The Patriots post last week and saw the same flaw in his throwing motion last night, I just can't understand why he hasn't fixed that. Whether or not he's 100% at fault there, Barkley isn't good enough as QB2 and we need to try and upgrade in the offseason. If Josh were to get hurt, Barkley would be a massive downgrade. I'd love to see us bring back Fitz if the terms are reasonable. It's well known that he loved his time here and he's become good friends with Josh already. Incredible. Even after watching his performance last night, that's probably the most damning argument against Newton I've seen yet. What's the over/under on Newton's remaining starts for his career if you had to guess? 7? I think Feliciano is so much more important to the O-line, run game, and the overall team than most of us realized. He brings an edge and level of intensity that good offenses need. We need to pay that man and keep him in Buffalo. To your last point, I'd actually make a case that we need a speed back rather than a power/goal line RB. Daboll is able to compensate for some of it with jet motion, but the biggest weakness of our rushing attack is that we can't beat defenders to the corners and down the sideline. When you think of some of the other elite offenses like KC and Baltimore, I'd love to see us add a RB and another WR with elite speed in this next draft.

Allen and Diggs the obvious candidates. Moss Lee Smith Dion Dawkins Oliver Milano (looks like he's 100% back!) Klein Tre Entire Special Teams (NE had the #1 ranked ST unit in the league and I thought we beat them soundly in that phase as well) Big performances from all corners of the roster.

THIS. FREAKIN. TEAM. What a bright spot in an otherwise pretty bleak and strange year for the world. 4:11 AM here in Northern Ireland, off to bed. Go Bills!

I still cannot believe that Tunsil trade...I'm really not convinced he's even a top 10 OT in the league and the massive draft capital they handed to Miami has and will continue to speed up their rebuild. He was worth one first round pick at most. One of the worst trades I can remember and unfortunately it has massively helped our division rival. Ironically, the Dolphins could now draft Penei Sewell (the top LT in the coming draft) with the Texan's top 5 pick who I think has a good chance of becoming a much better player than Tunsil.

Thanks very much man, definitely appreciate the feedback from you and others. This is my first season where I've started to write this series if you can call it that and it usually take around 3.5-4 hours per week. Something I enjoy doing and hopefully it adds some value to this Bills community!

The announcers seem to bring up Allen's zero red zone INT streak every game now and my BBFS starts freaking out every time. The curse of the commentator is going to get us on this one one of these days. It's a seriously impressive stat though, Josh is a defensive coordinator's nightmare close to the goal line.

Fair point, I'm sure Belichick will keep the starting QB decision quiet until the last possible minute. Stidham has seen action in two of the three games listed above as well. However, neither player scares me at this stage in their career and I think the Bills are well-positioned to stop either QB especially if we can limit the run and force them to throw the ball.

A dominating win on the road in front of a national audience to become AFC East Champions and thanks to the our friends in Cincinnati, the #2 seed with two weeks to go. The Pats officially eliminated from the playoffs. The Jets winning a game and *possibly/hopefully* losing the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence. What a week. Looking ahead, we're on the road again against the 6-8 New England Patriots who are coming off a crushing divisional loss to the Miami Dolphins. Same as the previous weeks, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the Patriots' last three games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful: ***Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics.*** https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings December 6th- Week 13 Win AT Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers (current record: 5-9) had the 19th ranked offense, 21st ranked defense, and 32nd ranked special teams) by a score of 45-0: Newton- 12/19 for 69 yards, 1 passing TD, 2 rushing TDs, and 0 INTs. Ran the ball 4 times on their first drive including a goal-line QB sneak for the TD and was effective as a running threat (48 yards) as LAC's pass rush was over-aggressive at times. As a passer though, Cam looks like just a shell of what he used to be though. His arm strength looks close to league-worst and the ball just looks wobbly off his arm even on short throws. To my amateur eye, he also appears to be letting go of the ball late at the top of his release so the ball is consistently snapping downwards. I also noticed that Newton is sliding down quickly to avoid taking hits in the pocket a bit prematurely. Stidham (2/3 for 61 yards and 1 TD) replaced Newton in the 4th quarter and made a nice throw to Olszewski for a 37-yard TD. Newton was only sacked once. Pats Running Game- As I mentioned in my report from the first match up, Damien Harris (80 yards and 5.0 YPC) isn't particularly fast or athletic, but is a tough runner with good balance and almost never goes down on first contact, a typical Belichick RB who always falls forward. On NE's first drive of the game, Harris executed a screen play perfectly and had a nice run lined up as the QB in the Wildcat formation as well. This offense does miss Rex Burkhead though who is out injured for the year. White and Michel were non-factors in this game. N'Keal Harry- 2 catches for 15 yards and 1 TD where he boxed out and beat Chris Harris Jr on a short comeback route although he got away with a fairly blatant push off. He hasn't lived up to his first round pick draft status, but his size is an advantage against almost any CB. Pats Run Defense- The Chargers seemed to be effective running the ball early on, but had to abandon the run due to game script. Continued to struggle when faced with jet sweeps/pre-snap motion and doesn't appear to have much speed outside of Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger (two young rookies I like a lot). Pats Pass Defense- Pressured and confused Herbert (26/53 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs) into probably the worst performance of his young career. Gilmore had two key PBUs on early third downs. Winovich dropped into coverage and picked off Herbert on a cross-field throw after halftime and JC Jackson was the beneficiary of a throw that sailed on Herbert for a second INT. The Pats got a decent amount of pressure on Herbert (who looked like he was holding onto the ball for longer in this game) and sacked him three times (the best one was Wise winning on a bull rush and getting Herbert on 3rd down to force a long FG attempt which LAC missed early on). In general, the Pats still do a great job of forcing teams into third-and-long situations, then limiting you to the short RB or TE catch, and then rallying to the ball with two or three tacklers. Miscellaneous- Gunner Olszewski is a very average returner in my view (relatively safe hands and more quick than fast), but the Chargers notoriously terrible/league-worst special teams unit was no match for an average return man and he took the Chargers first punt back for a 69 yard TD untouched and barely had to make a cut (he ripped off another 50 yard return later to give the Pats the ball at the LAC 15-yard line). Speaking of the LAC special teams, their kicker missed a 45 yard FG early and then had a 58 yard attempt blocked and returned for a TD with :00 left on the clock before halftime. New England committed 3 penalties for 15 yards. December 11th- Week 14 Loss AT Los Angeles Rams (the Rams (current record: 9-5) had the 7th ranked offense, 4th ranked defense, and 30th ranked special teams) by a score of 24-3: Newton- 9/16 for 119 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. Continues to be among the league leaders in passes batted down. Facing pressure off the right side, Cam threw a screen pass prematurely before Harris got his head around and Kenny Young took it back the other way for a 70+ yard pick-six. The Rams really limited Newton as a runner (just 16 yards on 7 carries) and as a passer in this game and were able to get pressure while still playing with sound contain technique. Stidham (5/7 for 27 yards) replaced Newton for a second straight week in the 4th quarter, but didn't make much of an impact. Newton was sacked SIX times and the Pats O-line looked unusually shaky. Pats Running Game- Damien Harris (50 yards and 4.5 YPC) continued to impress me and had all of NE's most significant runs. White and Michel were non-factors again which has surprised me as White is normally such a weapon/receiving threat and you'd think Newton would be trying to hit more of those shorter throws/taking easy profits. N'Keal Harry- 3 catches for 49 yards. Was able to highpoint and haul in a couple contested catches. NE's leading WR with Edelman out and the highlight of an otherwise poor passing game. Damiere Byrd (5 receptions for 48 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (4 receptions for 47 yards)- solid route runners with reliable hands. Byrd is more of a deep threat and Meyers has become Newton's safety valve on big downs. Pats Run Defense- Shocking performance, they were completely undone in this game and were dominated at the LoS. Cam Akers had his breakout game (171 yards and 5.9 YPC) running to all areas of the field. This was the first game where I saw the Patriots really give up a lot of interior rushing yards as well. Pats Pass Defense- Limited Goff (16/25 for 137 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT), but LA got the yards they needed to to build a lead early and then let the run game take over. Adam Butler (#70) jumped off the tape at the DT spot and got pressure on Goff a few times. The Pats LBs didn't have the speed to be able to cover Higbee and Everett effectively, but the Pats front seven did a better job sniffing out some of the RB/WR screens LA tried to run (while they lack athleticism, they can make up for it by being smart and well-coached in these areas). While excellent in coverage as usual, Gilmore's tackling and overall effort in the run game is below-average (making business decisions!). The Pats only sacked Goff once (Byron Cowart) and weren't able to generate much pressure. Myles Bryant, a back up CB for the Pats, nearly had a pick-six in the first half that could have gotten them back in the game, but was ruled down by contact so just a normal INT in the end. Miscellaneous- It's noticeable that even after drafting two rookie TEs and bringing back Ryan Izzo, the Patriots are getting practically nothing out of that position group (EIGHT (!!!!) receiving yards combined in these three games). New England committed 5 penalties for 27 yards. December 20th- Week 15 Loss AT Miami (the Dolphins (current record: 9-5) had the 16th ranked offense, 11th ranked defense, and 4th ranked special teams) by a score of 22-12: Newton- 17/27 for 209 yards, 0 TDs, and 0 INTs. Probably his best passing performance in recent weeks and faked out Ogbah with a nice move to pick up a first down with his legs (38 rushing yards). Newton was sacked three times. Pats Running Game- Damien Harris didn't play, but Sony Michel (74 yards and 7.4 YPC) filled in nicely on the ground and James White (4 catches for 52 yards) finally showed up in the passing game. N'Keal Harry- 1 catch for 12 yards. Shut down by Byron Jones/Xavien Howard. Damiere Byrd (3 receptions for 24 yards) and Jakobi Meyers (7 receptions for 111 yards)- Byrd was kept pretty quiet, but Meyers made a number of key catches and made a couple guys miss after the catch. Pats Run Defense- Another poor performance in which Miami broke their 31 game streak without an 100-yard rusher. Salvon Ahmed (122 yards, 5.3 YPC, and 1 TD) found a lot of room to run off tackle and Matt Breida (86 yards and 7.2 YPC, he's been criminally under-used in the Dolphins offense before this game IMHO) broke off some big gains as well. Tua showed good mobility on a short TD run in the 4th quarter to take the lead for good. Miami had four drives of 10+ plays. Pats Pass Defense- Miami did most of their damage on the ground with Tua dinking and dunking through the air (20/26 for 145 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT). New England was lucky to not have to deal with Gesicki, Parker, and Grant in this game. On third-and-goal, Winovich beat the Dolphins RT Robert Hunt inside and hit Tua's arm, leading to a JC Jackson INT. Gilmore went down with a non-contact injury in the first half and didn't return (now out for the season). Adrian Phillips lines up as a hybrid LB/DB in the New England defense and was very active, beating the RB on a early blitz and sacking Tua in the second quarter. The Pats sacked Tua twice (Adam Butler and Phillips), but weren't able to generate much pressure regularly. Miscellaneous- NE led this game 6-0 at halftime. Jake Bailey was one of three Patriots voted to the Pro Bowl this week and is one of the NFL's best punters (here's to hoping he's their best player for a number of non-playoff years like the Brian Moorman Bills teams!). He constantly flips the field and wins the field position battle for the Pats, it's hard to believe their offense can't score more points. Nick Folk also has made 25 FGs in a row. Miami faked a punt on 4th-and-7 at midfield and their punter Matt Haack threw an impressive spiral across the field to pick up the first down, but the play was called back on an ineligible man downfield penalty. New England committed 2 penalties for 20 yards. December 29th - Week 16 New England Patriots (current record: 6-8, the Pats have the 24th ranked offense, 23rd ranked defense, and 1st ranked special teams) At Home vs Buffalo Bills (current record: 11-3, the Bills have the 6th ranked offense, 14th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams) Bills On Offense- New England's defense still has Belichick calling the plays, but they are lacking the top-end talent and athleticism of past years and now they have lost Gilmore for the season as well. The Patriots have looked fairly stout up the middle in most games, but have been manhandled on the edges versus the run recently. JC Jackson is probably playing like the Pats #1 this season over Gilmore, but Diggs is on fire and matches up against him better than any WR we've had before. Winovich and Uche are good young players who provide bend and speed on the edge, but no one else really inspires fear and based on previous games, I think there should be room for Josh to run. Beasley and Knox should have space to settle into over the middle and then the speed to pick up YAC. It will be important to take care of the football and stretch the range of the Pats defenders. In some ways, we could focus on the run or pass game and probably have the advantage, but I'd like to see us spread the Pats secondary out with 3 and 4 WR sets as usual. Bills On Defense- Much like the first game against NE, a strategy of stacking the box to stop the run and forcing Newton to beat us with his arm seems like the best chance to get the sweep. Harris (apparently PFF's highest graded RB in the league) and White are good backs with complimentary skillsets, but Harris missed the Dolphins game and White doesn't seem to be getting many targets. Byrd's speed needs to be respected and Harry/Meyers are able to make plays here and there, but the question is whether Cam can get the ball to them accurately. Putting a spy on Newton to prevent him from moving the chains with his legs seems like a good idea as well. If we are able to stop the run, I don't believe that either Newton or Stidham can score on our defense and there should be a couple takeaways to be had. Our defense is playing so much better than in our first match up so that gives me a lot of confidence with this match up. On Special Teams- NE currently has the top ranked special teams in the league. Bailey and Folk are probably this season's best specialist combo. Their kick returner Olszewski seems like a average returner and has coughed up the ball a couple times, but has produced some big returns recently. This is the one aspect of the game where I feel like the Pats have the advantage. Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Division games on the road have a way of being closer than expected, but these look like two teams headed in opposite directions. While the Pats have an excellent special teams unit, the Bills should have a clear advantage on both offense and defense. All the best, stay healthy, and Go Bills!