Dont Stop Billeiving

Completely agree. Very different physically and in the way they rush the passer/play the run. Also, another huge potential difference is that Rousseau seems to love the game and works really hard by all accounts whereas it turned out that Maybin's true passion was art. Major factor in why Rousseau could reach his ceiling and Maybin never did.

Would love to get a really athletic CB/WR and add a 1 Tech or C/G by the time tonight is over.

Fair enough, I've adjusted the title as my wording was probably a bit off. After reading through the 37+ pages of the Gregory Rousseau thread, I saw double-digit posts expressing worries about Rousseau being the same as Maybin and comparing them in some way. Thought it might be interesting to actually break it down based on their measurements/test results/stats and see what the differences were.

Yeah of course, measurables and college stats are about all we can compare at this point. My argument is that physically Rousseau and Maybin are very different prospects. Whether Rousseau can reach his ceiling is the un-answerable million dollar question.

First off, I have to confess something. My initial reaction to the name that followed 'The Buffalo Bills select...' wasn't a overly positive one. My eyes kept getting wider as Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Teven Jenkins, Elijah Moore, and others appeared to be falling to us (Greg Newsome going to the Browns was a real gut-punch for me personally though) and I was almost certain that one of those prospects would be the pick at #30. However, as the surprise wore off, Gregory Rousseau has made more and more sense. While he undeniably has some bust potential as he's a raw, inexperienced prospect, Rousseau has a lot of traits that the Bills love (versatility, high football character, freakish physical gifts, etc.) and the reports are that coaches love this kid and his character/work ethic/intangibles. His length and ability to find the football are elite and we could really choose to view his limited number of snaps as a positive thing (converted WR/safety whose best football is ahead of him). Looking through the main thread about the pick, I noticed more than a few references/doubts and comparisons to Aaron Maybin, a seemingly good human being who is now an artist and elementary school teacher (true story!), but unfortunately for us, was an extremely disappointing football player. To my eye, I don't understand these comparisons as they look like very different defenders, but I thought I would dig into the numbers and see what happens. Here goes. Gregory Rousseau Height- 6’ 7” (technically 6 foot 6 5/8 inches) Weight- 266 lbs Arm Length- 34 3/4 inch arms (11 1/8 inch hands and a wingspan of 83 1/4 inches) Stats- Career (14 games)- 59 total tackles, 19.5 TFL, 15.5 sacks, 1 PD, and 2 FF. Combine Results- 4.68 40 Yd Dash (with a 1.57 10 Yd Split and a 2.71 20 Yd Split), 4.45 Shuttle, 7.50 Three Cone, 30" Vert Jump, 9'-7" Broad Jump, 21 Bench Reps. Relative Athletic Score (RAS)- 7.75 (out of 10) Aaron Maybin Height- 6’4” Weight- 245 lbs Arm Length- 35 1/4 inch arms (10 inch hands, spent about 15 minutes trying to find his wingspan, but couldn't locate it) Stats- Career (26 games)- 61 total tackles, 24.5 TFL, 16 sacks, 4 PD, and 4 FF. Combine Results- 4.64 40 Yd Dash, 4.38 Shuttle, 7.52 Three Cone, 38" Vert Jump, 10'-4" Broad Jump, 22 Bench Reps. RAS- 6.44 (out of 10) In summary, Rousseau is a significantly taller and heavier player who despite his poor pro day (I saw reports and other posters who mentioned that he fell on his vertical and had to run his three cone drill multiple times which wore him down a bit), still tested as a better athlete than Maybin when comparing their Relative Athletic Scores. Rousseau has slightly shorter arms, but he has larger hands and I think it's fair to assume he has a longer wingspan given his height advantage and build. In a relatively small sample size for both players, Rousseau's stats are much more impressive on a per game basis. Hopefully, if you were concerned about Rousseau becoming the next Maybin, I’ve at least managed to mitigate your doubts. I believe Rousseau has some prototype-level physical gifts that you can't teach and a ton of untapped potential. While Maybin had tweener size and was never a plus run defender, Rousseau's build, length, and effort allows him to set the edge effectively and his size enables him to line up across the defensive line which is very valuable. Rousseau is still a raw, unrefined prospect in many respects and he may not have a huge impact from Day 1 given how new he is to playing defense, but I trust the coaching staff to develop him and the kid seems like a process guy who will work his tail off to reach his enormous ceiling. It's a big swing, but I'm come around to seeing it as a worthwhile one. Thanks for reading and Go Bills! Good luck to us all tonight!

Hate or love the pick, you have to admire how leak-proof our front office is. Hadn't seen anything connecting us to Rousseau pre-draft. Had my eye on JOK, Teven Jenkins, and Elijah Moore, but I can get onboard with Rousseau. I like his length and I trust this coaching staff to develop him.

Completely agree, the UDFA talk is crazy to me. I get that he's a small guy, but Williams is an elite competitor who had 9 career return TDs and plays with a relentless motor. Above average athletically with an RAS of 7.77. Think he'd be a great fit on any roster with his ability and intangibles, could almost be a Steve Tasker-like glue guy. Draft Network had him at #163 in their rankings last time I checked so middle/late 5th round seems about right to me. Keep banging the drum for Williams man, I'm with you!

Beat me to it...absolutely love this player and doesn't get nearly enough hype which hopefully means he falls to us in the 5th/6th. ELITE special teams ability both as a returner and blocking punts. Plus I like his potential as a nickel CB which is a likely need for us long-term. Might be an unpopular opinion, but I'm not that high on Schwartz. He is super fast and I could get on board with the pick, but he doesn't play smooth and I don't think he's very elusive or proficient as a route runner. More of a track athlete than a football player. I think I prefer Ihmir Smith-Marsette or Jaelon Darden instead. More polished and versatile players who have similar RAS grades and will probably be drafted in the same range.

Thanks for the shout out man (and @H2o), appreciate it! Just a suggestion to save you some work...you can use my spreadsheet by either highlighting the name of each prospect drafted with a color and then filtering that color out to see who is left OR there's a column off to the right where you can input the team and overall pick where the player was drafted and you can filter it that way by only selecting the blanks (I use this to easily see how teams did post-draft). That's what I plan to do anyways and it helps to see who is remaining at each individual position and sort by RAS if needed. Anyways, good luck to us all and Go Bills!

Yeah that's my biggest takeaway as well. Was counting on Denver taking a QB off the board before New England gets to pick. If the Pats are getting a QB in the first round, I really need it to be Mac Jones and not Fields or Lance. Would be insane if the Pats got what I believe to be a top three QB in the draft at #15...

Creed Humphrey at #61 or slight trade up is my Day 2 dream. He is a freak athlete (perfect RAS of 10.0), experienced/intelligent, and formed some of the most successful partnerships in college football with multiple NFL QBs. Dude could start at guard from Day 1 and then take over from Morse next year, becoming a cornerstone for us for the next decade. Plus he's a former star wrestler so you know McBeane are swooning.

Greg Newsome II. Has 4.38 speed, led the FBS in passer rating against (15.77), and only allowed one completion of 10+ yard downfield in 2020. Fingers crossed he makes it to #30.

To me, I think of Basham as Shaq Lawson 2.0. Probably a solid player in the league (high floor/low ceiling type prospect) who will be a steady run defender and get 4-6 sacks each year based on his effort. Lacks the speed and bend of the top guys though.

Thanks @GunnerBill, I was really interested to get your take on this as I know you do a ton of pre-draft work/film study. Feel pretty good that we agree on 7 out of 10! Some quick responses to the three guys you mentioned just for fun: Ojulari is definitely undersized, but I thought I saw plenty of strength/sand to hold up against the run and his 34.5 inch arms give him the length to extend and rip through blockers. Only 5 pounds lighter than Jerry Hughes and the same height I believe. Has the elite bend and burst similar to the top pass rushers in the NFL and led the SEC in multiple defensive stats. Love his intangibles as well, really sounds like a McBeane player and person. Agree with what you said for Jenkins not being an LT (below average length for a tackle and tends to be a waist bender), but I want him because I think he can be an elite guard who is dominant in the run game. I know IOL isn't a great value in the first round, but we're picking late and Jenkins is huge, very athletic, experienced, and plays with an edge that I think our line needs. Think he could be an upgrade at either guard spot from Day 1 and he has the versatility to be a backup tackle if we need. Moore seems to be shooting up draft boards at the moment. I feel like a lot of people had him listed as a mid to late Day 2 pick just a couple months ago, but that lately he's being talked about as a top 40 pick. Probably has something to do with his 4.35 40 Yard Dash time, but to be fair I think that speed translated when you watch him on film (unlike Rondale Moore IMO) and he's electric in space and after the catch. Needs to develop his route tree a bit and prove he can win downfield more often, but I think he's a good route runner with insane athletic ability who can learn from Beasley and Diggs and he could be the home run threat we need (I know our passing offense was elite last year, but I like the idea of re-investing in your strengths and elite speed is the one thing we currently lack). Out of curiosity, who (or what position) are you hoping for at #30? Cheers, not long to go now!

Phillips is a tricky one for me. He is an elite athlete and he probably would provide the most immediate impact of any of the edge rushers in this class. His tape is pretty special. I didn't include him on my list for a couple of reasons: 1) As you said, I think he'll likely be selected before our pick at #30. Strictly based on talent alone, he's a top fifteen pick so I don't think he will slide that far. 2) Even if he did somehow fall to #30, his medical history is pretty scary and Beane mentioned at his pre-draft presser that teams didn't get a chance to examine the prospects' medicals as comprehensively as in past years. Phillips quit football after major concussion issues and left UCLA to pursue a music career, I think there is some question on whether he truly loves football. He's had ankle injuries and his left hand/wrist are basically mush after he was in a serious traffic accident (three bones removed). Worth noting that he's been rather healthy ever since he arrived at Miami, but who knows how many concussions he has left. I've also heard on a couple Bills podcasts I listen to that there are some behind-the-scenes rumors about Phillips that might put teams off. If we did pick Phillips, I could definitely get excited about his potential and talent, but he comes with a lot more risk than some of the other guys.

Thanks! Yeah Oweh likely comes with the highest risk of the ten prospects I listed, but could also have the highest ceiling (he didn't start playing football until his junior year of high school and only played two seasons at Penn State). It's rare to be able to draft someone at #30 overall with his measurables and freak athleticism. In some ways, you could think of Oweh as the edge rusher version of Josh Allen. Crazy physical traits with relatively little experience/snaps and underwhelming production. If he was the top-rated guy left when it's our turn, I'd trust that our coaching staff could develop him and the production would follow.

How’s it going? Less than a week until the draft now so I just wanted to post this for anyone who is interested. The attached Excel doc is a draft cheat sheet of sorts that I’ve put together the past few years ahead of the draft for a few family and friends. As a disclaimer, I do this just for fun and to prep prior to the draft/keep track of how the draft is going once it's started. I have gathered stats, pro day results (https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-pro-day-schedule-pro-day-results-tracker), Relative Athletic Scores (https://relativeathleticscores.com/2021/01/23/2021-draft-class-ras/), and some facts/bits of analysis along with some of my own notes/observations. Also note that I've taken an optimistic view of many players and often graded them based on their ceilings/potential if they were put in the right situation or scheme (we know this isn't always the case). Hopefully everyone is able to view the attached doc, but let me know if there are any issues. Outside of the targets who are guaranteed to go in the top 10 IMO, here are my ideal targets for the Bills to draft at pick #30 (most will likely be gone by the time we pick): 1) Caleb Farley- might be the best defensive player in the entire draft, but could fall due to his history of back injuries. Very special player/athlete who is still learning the position and has upside. Some of the best CB tape I’ve ever seen and would allow the Bills to be more scheme-versatile. 2) Kwity Paye- a big, physical edge who has the speed and bend of a smaller player. A converted RB with tons of upside/room to grow. Excellent vs the run as well. 3) Alijah Vera-Tucker- very refined and versatile lineman who can play at tackle or guard. Very mobile and balanced with good footwork and hand usage. Very high floor without the huge ceiling of the previous two targets. 4) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah- prototype of the modern day NFL hybrid defender. Body and range of a safety combined with the physicality and block-shedding of a LB. Flies around the field with reckless abandon and has great ball skills. Someone who could help us match up against KC more effectively with his speed. 5) Azeez Ojulari- has been miscast as a 3-4 OLB by many due to his weight, but watch his tape and you’ll see a plus run defender who has the strength and power to hold up and get into the backfield. Elite speed, flex, and bend around the edge to get to the QB. Georgia coaches loved this player, named a captain as a freshman. 6) Greg Newsome- elite athlete with top end speed and length to play in any scheme. Would allow the Bills to mix in some man and match up with the faster WRs in the league. A very feisty defender who competes for every ball. 7) Teven Jenkins- baddest dude in the draft, wants to embarrass defenders on every play. Mauler in the run game, should kick inside to guard and be above average to elite on the interior. Intimidating size and fantastic athleticism. 😎 Elijah Moore- 4.35 speed and world-class short area quickness. Proven ability to beat man coverage and is electric after the catch. 9) Jayson Oweh- arguably the top athlete in the draft. Some questions about why he didn’t have a single sack in 2020, but he generated a ton of pressures. A raw prospect who has all the physical gifts you can’t teach, but can be coached up. Insane ceiling, could wind up being the best pass rusher in the class. 10) Terrace Marshall Jr.- overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase at LSU, but was very productive when targeted and is an intriguing size/speed combo (6’3” with 4.40 speed). Big catch radius and wins above the rim. Cheers and Go Bills! Can't wait to see who will be wearing a Bills cap by next weekend! 2021 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings.xlsx

With the 87th selection of the 2021 TSW mock draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Ambry Thomas, Cornerback, Michigan. While he's an inexperienced prospect (only 800 career snaps between a stint in hospital in early 2019 and opting out of the 2020 season), Thomas is an impressive blend of athleticism, physicality, and inside/outside versatility who we believe is the perfect fit for our defense. His 4.37 speed allows him to turn and run with speed WRs and he's a sure tackler in run support. His 2019 tape with the Wolverines really made an impression on us (allowed only 1 TD and a passer rating of 56.3 when targeted) and we believe he can step in and replace some of the snaps we lost in FA with the departures of Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton. The Rams and @Blokestradamus are on the clock.

My main takeaway is less to do with Allen or these other QBs and more to do with how bad NFL DBs are at catching the football. Wild.

Roche hasn't gotten the same hype as his teammates Phillips or Rousseau (he doesn't have the length or same ceiling as those guys, but I think his floor is higher than theirs), but all this guy did was get after the football and fill up the stat sheets each week. Great value at #57.

Yeah true, Marshall has great speed and gives you size as well. Honestly a good shout.

With the 42nd selection of the 2021 TSW mock draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Creed Humphrey, Center, Oklahoma. We have been eyeing this prospect since the beginning of the draft and in the second round, we are racing to the podium to turn in this card and lock down our franchise center. Humphrey is a two-time team captain and won Big 12 Offensive Lineman of the Year as a junior and again as a senior. He's a above average rather than elite athlete, but is a durable technician who can be a cornerstone for our franchise on and off the field. Executing the trade back in the first round and selecting Najee Harris were both made with this pick in mind as well given the value in getting Humphrey at pick #42 and the fact he wouldn't have likely lasted until our original second rounder at #55. Humphrey projects as a Day 1 plus starter at center and should be an upgrade over the recently retired Maurkice Pouncey whose play had been declining. With these first two picks in Harris and Humphrey, we believe that we have brought in two really impressive reinforcements to protect Big Ben and reinvigorate the vaunted Pittsburgh rushing attack. P.S. Some team called the Bills has been kicking our butts the past two years...so we figured if you can't beat them, join them and now we are just going to draft former wrestlers who scream process. The 49ers and @HappyDays are on the clock.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently on deck and are ready to run to the podium as long as the Lions don't screw this up for us!!!! The post has been typed up already so 100% expecting this to go sideways lol

This guy went from being in the mid 300s on The Draft Network's Big Board in early 2021 to getting potential first round/early second round buzz now. Insane ascension. Has a lot of physical tools you can't teach and was really productive in his one year as a starter. Exciting second round pick!

Good point. He looks about as fast as Hill on the field at times, but Hill ran a 4.29 40 Yd Dash. Forty Yard Dash Times for the Bad Guys: Hill 4.29 Hardman 4.33 Forty Yard Dash Times for the Potential Good Guys: Anthony Schwartz 4.26 (!!!!!) Rondale Moore 4.29 (not very interested given his injury history) Shi Smith 4.33 Elijah Moore 4.35 (my ideal target for WR at pick #30) Simi Fehoko 4.37 (insane size/speed combo, very raw prospect, but I wouldn't mind him in the mid rounds) Dee Eskridge 4.38 Kadarius Toney 4.39