YattaOkasan

Agreed, I also don't see how we resign everyone and keep Harvin. I am still very skeptical Harvin can be healthy all season.

Agreed. Glenn's I do immediately and I also would take the estimate for Bradham. Here's hoping the cap goes up pretty high. Also I think McKelvin is going to be gone if the Dareus estimate is right.

Great post thanks for the review. For the first time I noticed Thomas after the fumble score. He's in the middle of the field looking very disappointed and thinking the play was dead. His hands are on his hips; he's shaking his head; and thinking about how he just got beat again (and called for his third holding penalty). Meanwhile Jerry is making the strip, picking up the ball, and starting to run towards the endzone.

Good read on MarQueis' journey to Buffalo. I think he will get a lot of snaps this year (might even be our number two TE). http://bills.buffalo...ing-with-bills/ "At receiver in 2010, Gray caught 42 passes for 587 yards and five touchdowns. At quarterback in 2011 and 2012, he threw for 1,967 yards, rushed for 1,356 and scored 24 total touchdowns. Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill used the word “athlete” seven times in one response describing Gray’s game. In Kill’s first season, he insists Gray “single-handedly” beat Iowa down the stretch with his legs."

Also agree injuries. While our backups can play for a stretches in games, I don't think they can replicate the production of our starters.

Wondering what you guys thought of this. Hogan, I envision, to be used more in 4 receiver sets because this personnel grouping will see more zone coverage, and his route running should have him open with our other 3 receivers out there. Basically obvious passing downs/formations I expect to see Hogan, and I expect to see him get a lot of targets because the defense will be keyed in on the other 3 receivers. Goodwin, I envision, to be used more in 3 receiver sets because he can blow the lid off the defense and will prevent safeties from creeping into the box. The choice for the defense basically being try to stop the run and give up a shot to Goodwin over the top, or keep Goodwin contained and allow us to run. Putting Goodwin out on 3 receiver sets will also allow Harvin to rest, which I think he'll need because he will get some touches out of the backfield. To summarize on second and short or first down, will be when Goodwin gets the bulk of his snaps. Hogan will see snaps in all situations, but I would be surprised not to see him on the field if its 3rd and long.

I agree he will be challenged to make the roster, but I have him making the 53. I don't get the how of him getting injured at a track meet. OTAs and TC are another thing, but is Goodwin's participation in track meets actually a thing posters are worried about. I think others need to get Yolo's chicken little avatar.

Minimal risk of injury (is that better)? I am unsure the risk of running on a track.

Rex told them to take some time away from football before TC. He took it to heart. I don't see the problem. He's staying in shape without risk of injury. Also nothing says he's not reading his playbook in his downtime.

Thanks for the awesome work Big Cat, running the data and explaining the results. I plan on using that site to run some histograms. Don't know how to give you a big high five over the web. Do we have a like button yet?

If plays like he did last year I would not offer >$10 million per year.

I agree that has been out biggest liability. Assuming we improve on this metric, I would say improving Yards Per Carry is second most important because improvement will help shorten the game and keep giving our defense rest. Good topic

If we just get some data sets we won't have to speculate about what most backs do. I would be down to run the stats (we could even have 2nd person verification), but I don't know a good source for the data.

Nosaint you've piqued my interest. I think this would be worthwile data to look at. I would like to see a histogram of CJ's carries versus the typical back. I would imagine CJ's median is much lower than someone like Sproles. On that same note I think the data sets on CJ's carries under Gailey and under Marrone would be great to look at as well (and probably more relevant to TBD discussions). Anyone know where this data would exist?

I agree. Boobie may not be the number 3 back, but I feel as if Roman wants versatility (and yes I know he cut Boobie in SF).

was it the sarcasm? I tried to use TBD approved font, but couldn't find it. Sorry if it sounds like I'm on tirade.

I just don't see anyone breaking the bank on Glenn next year. The list of UFA LTs is up thread, and its pretty impressive. I'm not saying it couldn't happen (particularly if he has a monster year), but because of the available talent on the market next year I don't think it will. I'm hoping we can lock him up for $40 million over 5 years. and then move him to guard

I would love to keep him too. My question is how much do you pay him to keep him around? I think $8 million per year for 5 years seems great (but I haven't really looked into it much yet).

I also don't think, the Brown trade, was as bad of a move as some have made it out to be. Particularly because the insurance policy was already cashed in. If only he holds onto that damn ball it might look like a great move.

I think this is the case as well, but have often seen the argument (not so much here) "Brown is Whaley's guy and he doesn't want egg on his face."

Unless EJ or TT become dominant, I suspect we will be taking a QB in the first round.

I think assuming these guys will get re-signed is a safe assumption, and they should be resigned for something close to their value. Glenn would get an exaggerated (more than he's worth) contract if the market was diminished. However, with just those 3 guys gone I don't think the market is that much smaller and his value would not be too exaggerated. Thus he would still not be top 5 in worth (this is still the benchmark were using right?). I think it was later in the board (will eventually learn multi-quote), but $8 million sounds right to me with all things considered. I think his agent would be insane to not listen to any offers lower than $9 million.

I limited my list to LTs next year and I thought there were more than 5 that had a better year in 2014. I understand he will likely improve this year, but I don't think he'll be in the top 2 or 3 for UFA (would love to be wrong though) of all tackles, unless you are weighting LTs more (but why not just limit it to LTs then).

I don't see Sanchez. Nice find btw.

So I think the point on Unrestricted Free Agents needed some more umph so I did some work. Below is the list of UFA LT next year in order of cap hit this year from this site First Last Age Team PFF rank, B/R rank Trent Williams 26 WAS 10, 11 Anthony Castonzo 26 IND T7, 10 Nate Solder 27 NE >10, 21 Russell Okung 27 SEA 9, 18 Andrew Whitworth 33 CIN 1, 3 Donald Penn 32 OAK >10, 13 Kelvin Beachum 25 PIT 3, 8 Cordy Glenn 25 BUF >10, 15 I then added their PFF ranking (note rankings only went up to 10 but I think you get the picture). 2 top 5 LTs will be on the market next year along with 3 more in the top 10. This also includes a wide variety of ages. I don't think Glenn will command top 5 money because there are 5 UFA's that were ranked higher then him last year. Unless he has a huge break out year (which I would be down for); he will not get top 5 money for a LT. EDIT: I double checked and these are only the Pass blocking rankings. I will try to update with overall PFF rankings (I know we take them with a grain of salt but what else does a guy have). I have added B/R rankings because I couldn't find PFF rankings