YattaOkasan

This is the best arguement so far for why its a problem. I put stats above on Passer Rating but YPC in our losses has been around 6. That could open up the pass a bit. Worth noting our worst playoff loss in '20 was the one in which we stopped the run the best (though the offense looked out matched in that game). Some of it is weird though. Hardman pops a 50 yarder on 1 carry in 21. Thats not a traditional run play. Burrow has 21 yarder in '22 not a traditional run play or what he typically does. Last year CEH and Pacheco (ended up not being a scoring drive) get explosives from traditional run

Show me a game where we lost cause of the run? What I see as common in our PO losses is inability to stop the pass (Rating by year: '23 Mahomes 131; '22 Burrow 101, '21 Mahomes 123, '20 Mahomes 127). The best evidence that our run defense is an issue in the playoffs is '22 when Burrow ONLY had a rating of 101. Meanwhile there are quite a few games you wouldve expected teams to lean on the run to beat us ('23 Steelers w/ back up QB, '22 Miami w/ back up QB, '21 Pats w/ Mac and after hurricane bowl showing were soft, '20 Balt in elements w/ LJ). If our run defense were truely a problem why did we win all these games while giving up <20 points (exception being '22 Miami where Josh went YOLO with TOs).

he has been rated as one of the top run defenders for years though. 15 TFLs this year! Below is a link to a cover 1 article preview that cites PFF stats (not grades cause yuck) as #1 at run stops as a rookie and top 10 the following year. I think hes been super productive with sacks still lagging a bit (12th out of all DL in pressures, 2nd in QB hits). Be ready for him to get $25 mil/year this offseason. Why does our run defense "suck"? I think we dont care about rushing yards between the 20's. We play nickel and never have 3 LBs on the field (unless a goaline package for a 3rd/4th and short). So yes its coaching because rushing yards between the 20's are not a priority. They stiffen up when it gets to the red zone. https://www.cover1.net/gregory-rousseau-technique/ https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/defense_advanced.htm

A bit but he had Josh as #2 in top 40 coming into the season. That turned a few heads at the time. https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/news/chris-simms-2024-top-40-qb-countdown-full-rankings-and-breakdowns-ahead-of-the-2024-nfl-season

Still waiting for a Wubba Lubba Dub Dub. Mack Hollins as the mad scientist had the perfect opportunity for it last night.

Sure. But don’t take taron off the field. He’s our best definsive player. Take Hamlin off. Johnson has even played deep half in a cover 2 alignment. It’s definitely on the table now that Milano is back.

Agree and my experience is that it’s full recovery with no diminished play.

This will only be his 2nd game inactive. I believe IR requires 4 GAMES so if he’s back next week or for lions that’s why you keep him off IR. Also think they have less than their usual cap for in season moves and moving a guy to IR does require using some cap

Trick question. Leave both and take a DL off. You’re only going dime if you know they’re passing. Give me groot Oliver and von in full attack mode. Then any LB as spy. Feel great we could get the QB off their spot and have plenty of coverage players

Meh on him as a stud as someone mentioned his coverage struggles. Agree ravens is when you would want to get creative with him. I would take damar off for him if you’re gonna do it and let taron take on a safety role. Not sure they do this plan though

Hoping LV does a solid too and takes care of KC (after beating the Ravens in week 2). A big Max Crosby game would be great and KC does have some trouble with TEs.

If Davis releases one of the rusher likely peels off to cover him too. I would be shocked if they dont green dog that one.

I think he gets destroyed and risks a lot of injury if he steps into bolton charging at him. When he gets cover 0 he almost always slides/fades aways from it. Stepping into a throw makes it stronger but with Josh's arm he doesnt need to so he can avoid the hit. part of why he has the longest active start streak is cause he fades away from that type of contact. Not walk into. Others have to we should not want him to.

you think he can step up into the pocket on that play? agree davis would be open but he would have to back pedal to get to him.

Just hop in your Delorean at 1PM and watch the game live. Just dont let us know what happened.

Great analysis for both the posts, and agree shallow is the counter. particularly mesh which were running a ton of. i dont remember a ton of rub plays in past years and for a while this season that seemed the only way we could get separation in M2M (now we have cooooop as well). I think teams are still stuck on Josh turning the ball over. Its not really discussed much but I feel as if a lot of scouting (particularly common opponents) happens in the offseason so you have less to prepare during game week (obviously diminishes as the season progresses). if true, then i could still see teams thinking they can get TOs off Josh by heating him up with extra rushers and M2M (and spy) on the back end. Great posts!

So the happy coincidence of the 4th down play is you have so many shallow crossers (no deep routes that I recall) that all the front line defenders are occupied so they cant account for Josh. It was also mentioned a few years ago for Mahomes and Josh that getting out of the pocket and the threat of the run really strains the zones because now they have to move up and sorta get out of position. Thats the fun push/pull as thats when the coverage really needs to shift to man but is hard for a defense to move as a unit.

Would be great cause then the man beater will work. You often don't run spys with zone unless youre doing something upfront crazy (see below). Spy could get to him as others mentioned, but I think Spags didnt think as spy was necessary as they looked to be in Cover 2 with a lot of eyes on the QB. This was def something we were doing back as far back as 2022 on the taron johnson game winning interception. If you recall on that play miller gets pressure and Mahomes rolls out to his right and Milano comes down to rush the play. That was a rush 3 with a spy play. Specifically not a contain rush like the rest of the game. Knowing they will pass you go all out to force him out of the pocket to your spy who forces the quick decision on the run. Challenge is this needs to be obvious passing downs.

Agree. Annual reminder that McD and Josh have an insane record in Dec. I have no fears they will come out ready after 2020 when our backups came in during the first half and we hung 50 on a dolphins team that was win and in.

Was more of a joke that came off a bit snarky. No sweat. Is aubrey a better kicker than Bass? I think yes. But I dont think difference is large (and certain) enough to justify a 4th round. If you could guarantee aubrey's overall numbers continue to Buffalo, it makes it much more favorable.

Now explain XP % indoor and outdoor? Point is that it’s not as simple as what he’s doing in Dallas would immediately translate to us.

Career splits on PFR. Indoor/outdoor at bottom. Bass is having his worst XP year (one block in there). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AubrBr00/splits/

Fair. Wilson was a bit less of a slam dunk iirc. But sauce def was (I was very annoyed with the stingley pick). AVT has been good for them as well.

Pretty happy about this. He had lots of ammo in 2022 but he found DROY, OROY, and Breece Hall. He can evaluate talent to some degree.

People gotta look at the outdoor splits (i know one is a block) but hes worse than T bass outdoors on XP. its not 100% translatable (this is before we get into questions around the whole operation, LS and holder).