YattaOkasan

Any thoughts that they roll with Harry and Oliver as 3 techs and the replace Phillips with a moderate priced 1 tech?

I dont know what to say if you dont want use statistical analysis? Stop using stats in your arguments then I guess (the scientific part doesnt change that its still statistical analysis). Are we really certain Derek Carr and Fitzy arent comparable? Carr >> Fitz for completion and also did better in Ints & yards; Fitz had similar TDs and more comebacks (better clutch). I think Watson is really the one that breaks this analysis, but honestly his ability as a passer is second to what he does with his legs imo so its not totally out of line there (TDs and Ints for those two are very similar; diff is comp %). I will admit this analysis works better for the 32 teams, but I think works ok here with QBs. I think you just showed that these are reasonable guidelines and that QB rating is NOT an accurate measure of QB play. Lastly you think there are only 12 franchise QBs in the whole league....? I think there are more than that; can you elaborate on who those 12 are. Edit: I move over to QBR which includes running and sacks and Watson moves up ot the good category. Also Fitz moves all the way up to 9 (right ahead of Carr!!!!). Allen does drop to the bad category here which is a cause of his sack numbers. Honestly that was part of the problem I had with him at the end of the year (turning his back to the defense). Again as a pure thrower Allen is average. He makes some big plays with his legs but they end up in his passing stats. Allens bad plays come from his legs and show up in his sacks and fumbles not in rating.

The power analysis tells you how many samples you need to understand if there is a true difference. 58.6 is very close to 60% therefore you need many more samples to know that the two things are different. 72% is >> than 60% and you need fewer samples to tell a difference (also completion % is not a good measure of accuracy imo). I think the best way to think of this (and honestly Allen in generally) is Top 4 (Elite), Second Best 4 (Good), Bottom 4 (Terrible), Second worst 4 (Bad), and everyone else (Average). If Allen is 26th then hes in the second worst 4 and is not making the grade. If he is 23 he really is just average cause you dont have the power to tell the difference between him and number 9. These are guidelines but I think they have really helped me thinking about if something is a concern or if something else is as good as it seems. This guideline has gotten me to Allen is an average QB for the most part (some good and some bad) and I consider that a big improvement from last year which had much more bad.

Not all of these are throwing mechanics but a lot are. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1254429-every-nfl-starting-quarterbacks-worst-habit#slide8

I’m on board with most of what you’re saying but 6-10 is a huge amount. That would probably be >100 more yards per game on the season. I think it’s actually more like 1-2 more plays a game. 1 more FG per game is ~0.25 more points per drive by my calculations. That probably puts us in the average average range

Yup I was inclined to agree with you that if a QB is sub 50% it is mostly on him. I think it’s because the other parts that fail may still be because of him. But I also agree with Hap that it’s impossible to quantify. I’m so conflicted on this topic of how much his supporting cast let him down (particularly OL) because he has so many responsibilities. Seeing growth in deep ball and this area is what I want. I’m just not sure how to quantify growth in this like I could the other areas like intermediate passing.

Fair. I really dont know but its what im most interested at this point. I thought I had seen some posts that he was getting a lot of pre snap responsibilities but maybe I misread. I'm really hopeful thats where he takes a leap cause it feels like thats where Brees, Brady, Manning separated from the rest of the league.

I think he had a lot of power to change plays, but I just dont know how often he did. Then I also don't know how successful he was when he did it. But agree I hope its speeding the curve up and will ultimately make a better end product.

I'm struggling with the point I think @Mango is trying to make. I think we know Allen has a lot of responsibility at the line, and I agree with you we can't really quantify how much of the blame is on Allen because we don't have the information. But I think the things such as setting protections and getting to the right play are where hes gonna need to take the biggest jump. Over the season as information about the McVay communicating with Goff at the LoS and reflecting on Brady/Manning I started thinking you need your true OC to be taking the snaps. I totally think Allen has improved a lot in the mechanics of being a QB and also still has a long way to go. However, the real question I have now will be how does HE game plan week to week? How does he read the defense and audible? We know the Bills gave him the control, but is he exerting that control and correctly. Overall, I'm hopeful because of things like his wonderlic score and his lack of football coaching prior to reaching the NFL. I have actually been pretty impressed with how cerebral he is; so I will be very interested to see his growth in the mental aspect of the game in the next season.

I think the idea of Top 4 > 4-8 > Middle (9-23) > 24-28 > Bottom 4 is useful. Basically 9-23 is all the same and there isnt much difference between them. Its only when you get near the edges that you see an appreciable difference. So from this regards Josh is what I though which is average, and I agree thats a big improvement from last year. HAHAHAHA. This place would explode if josh had that many interceptions. everyone would say his 300 yards were in garbage time when the game was out of hand already. We've been winning and in tight games so he hasnt had to throw for a ton of yards yet. The few times they have asked a lot of the passing game (and offense generally) it hasnt really delivered. Some of that is on Josh some of it is on others. I am happy with Josh's progression while we win and Mannings stat line for QB growth has got to be a statistical outlier.

Time bandit!

I think McKenzie should be on this list right? I think that would probably be the best move by Beane prior to this year. I would not have played Yeldon over Gore, but still feel we need an upgrade over both them.

Consider the draft breakdown tape of Bryan Edmunds. @thebandit27 I wonder what your thoughts on him are. Looks like a good route runner and a hell of a competitor. OMFG just remembered there was a cover 1 article on him. https://www.cover1.net/bryan-edwards-most-underrated-receiver-in-the-nation-nfl-draft/

Don’t forget that Barkley lost to McKenzie in a throwing competition.

I’m sold on Allen and I still think QBs can be great assets. Always be drafting them for value and trade them. I’m surprised more organizations with franchise QBs don’t constantly churn the late round QBs to get better draft capital.

Still lots of talk about Watt today. Almost feel we should pass when he’s not out there to minimize his potential impact. That’s 1st and 2nd down passes.

I don’t have his stats in front of me but from what I saw he looked pretty good. Still pleases as punch with Ed though

Other PFF gems. going into last years draft after signing Kevin Johnson and EJ Gaines (with Levi Wallace returning) and Ed Oliver still on their board when we picked, they said we should pick CB Byron Murphy!!!! this year I checked their first mock draft and they Siam we really need to go CB!!!! i dont know if they aren’t paying attention or don’t know what they’re doing.

No one was calling feliciano a top OL going into the season and there were some doubts on Spain as well after he wasn’t resigned by the titans. Dawkins was coming off a bit so good year. I think our line is above average which is a tremendous improvement and a credit to Johnson. I think I’m ok with Dawkins as a franchise LT but I still have some concerns. Either way resign Spain and see if you can improve anywhere.

I agree it’s not Boy Scouts. I think they are looking for competitors. Josh is probably the best example as that dude will do whatever he can to win. I think they want guys that will putting winning over everything. Outside of that I don’t think they care what a guy does.

If you think of the star dead money then it makes it that much more expensive to retain Phillips. I think they give him a good offer but he ends up leaving for someone that will break the bank. I hope they turn that into a comp pick. I would be happy to pay him stars money if he could keep it up and star didn’t cost money to cut.

We’re not releasing star. It doesn’t make sense. I think you have a good question though. I’m gonna say no but I’m not too sure. He’s been so great for us but I think he costs too much.

I agree it would have been tough to hold onto if he made good contact on the way down (he didn’t completely whiff). I’m hoping Allen saw him at the last second and helped prevent the clean hit. Either way the rip back was strong and Allen held onto that. We need all the ball security we can get with this defense.

IMO the difference is that Brown has had good years in other places. Now that he’s here he’s having a career year. Stevie never really did anything elsewhere. Smoke isn’t succeeding in spite of Allen.

Whew caught up on this gem of a thread. @thebandit27my favorite part from jrober was when he was so pumped to be riding the tannehill wave with his fantasy team. Isn’t he having a career year in efficiency metrics now on his second contract but QBs unlike TEs are done developing after 2 years. were 9-4 and he’s still learning. Let the kid keeping winning and growing. Super interested in how he rebounds again? Kid has shown he can get up from a bad play or game and deliver.