YattaOkasan

Yeah most definitely but were talking about roster locks. They have a 80% likelihood of making the roster across the league. So thats a really good chance but not a lock imo so thats why I would have him in blue.

He didn’t get drafted til the 5th so I’m not sure his stock is too high. I actually don’t think they are letting him go by cutting him. Consensus seems to be that there will be less claiming of players across the league so they should be able to stash him (if there is a team I’m worried about claiming him it’s the pats if Newton gets hurt ?). There’s also not a preseason to evaluate if he’s any good. Lastly I’m confused why they are so committed to him when they really had no expectation of drafting him or any QB this year.

Clearly Roberts was the superior returner but McKenzie was the better weapon on offense. McKenzie has also demonstrated the punt return performance that Roberts put out last year (His rookie year of 8.7 yards per return on 21 returns to 8.0 yards per return). Roberts is getting older and I think McKenzie is the shiftier of the two. To me the Black was the no way he doesn’t make the team and I see competition at this spot. I said Blue so I still think Roberts makes the team but I don’t see it as on the team barring injury case. I think that’s not an unlikely scenario. Hence Blue. Fromm’s stock is very low across the league. I think the Bills feel pretty safe that putting him on the PS would still give him time to develop. And a 5th round pick is not a lock.

Only change from me is Roberts to Blue. I could see McKenzie taking away his role. Not sure of Roberts contract though. great work as always Gunner

So this debate has me thinking about does Josh Allen have the clutch gene which many of us agree is real ( @GunnerBill) or is this stat about 4th quarter comebacks wrong again (Sanchez/Tebow), again agree this stat is not a good predictor. So far in this thread one of the unmentioned point is Allens 4th quarter numbers overall. Buffalo Fanatics said he was the BEST 4th quarter quarterback and I think it’s hard to disagree. I will agree sometimes Josh is a big part of the reason we need a comeback. But based on his 4th quarter stats and the ways in which he put us on the door step of a tying or winning (Pats x2, Browns, Ravens, Texans) in other games, I think we can say he has the clutch gene. He needs to get more consistent and then some of these will not be comebacks or will be game sealing drives. But I think we can feel good he has a clutch gene.

Why are parts of this discussion so binary. There are levels of uncooperative not just cooperative and resisting handcuffs. I think I would have been worse than Ed. @Call_Of_Ktulu I'm not sure if youre not reading the whole thread but its been pointed out several times that the beer can was for spit. How it got empty is a different story but its pretty clear now he wasn't drinking it when they pulled him over.

Yeah most QBs would get the job done against Denver considering they could only manage 3 points. I think it was the challenging wind conditions for why I thought Allen and offense had a pretty good day.

I would put the Denver game up there too for Josh. Conditions were miserable but he was still 60% and we kept a good lead most of the game. As I mentioned Steelers on the road would’ve been good if not for a few drops. back to the original point I do think the offense got better as the season progressed and I don’t really see the case against it. The giants game is about the only example to me. Conversely I think two games of improvement against divisional opponents on the road shows why they did improve. Do you think If we replaced our first three games with Denver Steelers and Dallas we would’ve won? I really think the schedule makers did us a solid last year.

Fair that 1st half against the Giants was good (forgot how good) but second half was bad. As to the offense not getting better that ludicrous. 2 of the first 3 weeks were that ridiculous jets game and the Cincinnati game. Dallas was a not bad def and we ate their turkey. Against the Steelers we had costly turnovers (interception off beasleys hands and singeltary fumble) in Pitt territory. Hell look at our divisional games. We struggled with Mia at home and we smoked them the second time on the road. We played the patriots better the second time again in the road. So I think it clearly got better. Agree though that we were fortunate to have a cup cake schedule particularly early in the season. Not sure we beat Dallas or Pitt if we play them early in the year.

3 of those 4 games came early in the season when we were still working our offense out. Our first three game of offense was terrible but isn’t it common knowledge that the first weeks of the season have the weirdest results. I wouldn’t say we took the whole game to put Mia away as we took a lead we wouldn’t relinquish with ~1 min into the 4th quarter (we just played super bad in the first half). lastly the Steelers game was a comedy of errors on offense. I recommend the cover 1 breakdown.

Honestly I expect a lot of empty packages from 11 personnel in the coming year. Will be interesting to see if Gabe Davis gets some run in 11 personnel. I think with his bigger size you could have a pretty good package for running against a nickel package.

Thanks! Sorta a cop out to "watch" out for the chiefs when the were already so good (tied for best YPA). I do think we might have the biggest jump in production in 11 personnel.

Where did we rank in the 11 personnel? We seemed to do much better later in the season with that set. I think that personnel package can really get better with the addition of Diggs.

Current question you're talking about is if they are hiding Allen. I dont think they are, and I dont think those numbers show that they are trying to hide him. I agree those numbers are not cause for celebration. As another poster mentioned his ability to dominate at times is cause for a lot of optimism (its not just the GW drives its all his 4th quarter numbers which are very good). To your point his consistency is a big reason for concern (why he often has to come back). Based on the outside factors (drops, just fewer total throws in his career) I believe he can improve (he also showed he could get better last year). I don't think Lamar has the same success in all systems, but he is very good right now (I was very ok with him at 22 and using that draft capital to get a ton of other good talent). I do question the sustainability of Lamar's success, but unquestionably right now he is elite.

For the college part I think UND is the top tier of their division and had the surrounding talent to help Wentz out. For Wyoming Josh was really the only threat his senior year. So I would say its the ability of the surround cast: Wentz's cast >> Allen's cast relative to their competition. Also agree its put up or shut up time. If he takes the jump he did from Year 1 to Year 2 this is a really good team and hes pushing to be a top 5 QB. I suspect a smaller jump to the top 12 range (better than average versus average right now) with more playoffs coming.

I see it now. Thanks. That diff is almost certainly drop differential between Josh and the average then as I expected before but was thinking of it wrong. Thanks again. Lots of signs pointing to Josh is average which is happily where I have him.

Yes! So doesn’t that mean that Dak was helped by his line and WR And Josh was held back by his. To me based on numbers and eyes it was the drops that really hurt Joshs numbers. Someone might have the drop % relative to average but about 3% seems right. Yeah I couldn’t make sense of what did and don’t go into it exactly. I think average line and separation and bad drop numbers makes sense to me if that’s what they are saying.

Guess I’m confused. It says Josh should’ve had a higher completion percentage based on the other factors. For the QBs with a positive factor it says that their expected completion percentage was lower than actual. Pretty sure I got it correct. Other players with negative +/- (and closer to Allen than the ones you listed) are Mahomes and Jackson. Pretty sure that +/- is how mich your team helped or hindered.

I'm reading this differently. Josh is low on the expected completion percentage (29th of 39), but was one of the most negatively effected by those parameters as demonstrated in +/- (this is where he ranks 35th) which is just completion percentage - expected completion percentage (per glossary). So this means he had below average help with respect to line and separation. This better aligns with my eyes that while our line got better it was still only average and that while better our receivers didnt seem to get a ton of separation (also drops). Someone else let me know if I'm reading the link wrong.

Hahahaha you clearly don’t know how many QBs started every game. I think it’s realistic he jumps to 16-20 because in last place for the category of QBs that started 16 this year he was 13th. Dude is average and considering some we’re saying he would never amount to anything I think that’s proving doubters wrong. As bandit said the game is gonna keep slowing down for him. He wasn’t in JUCO cause he was dumb. Kid is sharp and if he can get his mechanics consistent (particularly on the deep ball) I’m confident he’ll have a great season.

Im just not sure they can replicate the turnovers they created last year. That was a huge reason they were 8-8 and I would bet on a regression to the mean there. As for when we played them, it was classic comedy of errors from our offense. Cover 1 recently did all our offensive plays against them on youtube and it was ugly pretty much across the board. You got a drop from brown that wouldve been a first but becomes 3rd and very long outside FG territory, a drop from Beasley in FG territory that becomes a pick again (his drops had to have huge EPA over the season), Frank Gore trying to bounce plays to the outside, Singeltary having super inopportune fumbles (lost one after a 20 yard run). Think there were probably some costly penalties in there too. Josh made a couple rough plays too but the plays above really hurt as it was 5 explosive play swing to them.

So you are banking on us turning the ball over that many times again. I don't see us doing that again against them.

Yeah but thats not so much them beating us as it us giving it to them.

I underlined the full offseason cause I disagree with this. Its def not a full typical offseason. Stidham will not get to throw to these guys as the starter until TC. Also I am not conviced they run the same system as last year because Stidham is not TB. I just dont see them as being able to have a good passing game at all. we put up a lot of TOs in that game. I think thats what beat us and not that stat line.

Football is not so deceptive with their signs (at least in the NFL) so I suspect if you were able to tape their signs along with all 22 film you could figure out the called formation and play from the signs on the sideline. Lets say you know your opponents CB coach likes to give a sign whenever a CB blitz is coming. You would key in on the CB coach and then know when a CB blitz is coming based on if he signals...