YattaOkasan

Cover 1 guys agreed on the pregame show. Sugar the A gaps all the time and every once in awhile bring the heat. As @Hapless Bills Fan mentioned though the tackling has to be sure which it hasn’t always been for us (luckily Klein is blitzing in this scenario).

Yup. This tells me there is a bit of money on the Bills side right? I dont think its an average person betting the Bills so I do think the line is encouraging.

Doesnt this support my point though. We can stop the run or the pass but not both imo. We have basically chosen to stop the pass for most games resulting in us getting gashed on the ground. I do agree we miss Star we could better defend the run on early downs with him. I think we do better (relative to the average) on 3rd/4th and short than 3rd and long which suggests its scheme choice to me (I am looking for stats to verify this thought).

They must be better than Josh Jacobs and Derek Henry who we held in check. Bills have shown they can stop the run. If anything I was most surprised how they got gashed in the second half of that game. Bills D looks to be able to stop 1 thing run or pass but not both.

Great post. I would say Allen MVP and biggest mistake is the Klein signing are my only disagreements (but you do acknowledge Allen). But great read.

And he did it with his eyes closed! To another post Feliciano is the reason we had more success running, though Boettger is a better run blocker than pass blocker to my eyes.

His hand fighting really is good. The leverage and power does make some sense for even some of his struggles in college. I do think hes going to be a long time contributor.

This could definitely happen but I think us getting a lead early is almost as likely. I think we maybe able to do some damage early (particularly if we could get a TO) that will result in a heavy Moss/Singeltary game (though that hasnt happened all year yet). I agree this could definitely be a tough game but I dont think this is the same team as the Seattle game. I also think that game was close because the Hawks spotted them a TD and have a historically bad defense. To your point that they will play us tough the Hawks game was a good example of them getting a lead early on and just trying to hold on. I worry most about us getting behind early because they are playing super tough and Bellicheck confuses Josh early.

That there season is over if they dont win is my only concern about this game. On the flip side I think our guys will know we will be in a difficult spot if we dont win so they should be hungry too. If we get > 7 pt lead in the first half I dont think theyll have enough to come back.

Sorry was poking fun at the evil genius that we always make the hoodie seem. I get that were a little unsure about our team but I think that’s the BBFS. I feel we had a good get right game against the Jets even if it wasn’t a blow out. I am more than hopeful for this game. I am expecting a W and I think we’ve gotten that every time this year we could expect it. We still have things to figure out but Patriots have a lot more.

Isn’t this a lot harder to do with the covid rules. He wouldn’t even get in their building til after the game. Plus you would probably wanna digest the info a little which makes the game planning tough. I know the hoodie has done us wrong for years but it’ll be ok.

Punter didn’t get many reps But that’s another good thing.

K. If you think throwing with a >90% WP is not being conservative then I suggest we start thinking of McD as aggressive this year. Would agree with previous years we would be conservative.

So you want revenge for that? I just want a W so they can sit at 2-5. I found a win probability chart from 2008. Up 2 scores in the 4th and you have a 90% WP. That seems significant to me that youre gonna win. I think your 5 min cut off is arbitrary (unless your willing to include smaller leads, i.e. the Dolphins game). http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/08/win-probability.html

So historically 8 minutes (@ the start of the drive) with a 2 score lead is a run the ball time from what i have seen from conservative coaches. I guess we need some data on play selection < 5 min with a 2 score lead. I dont think any coaches are throwing there cause the game is over if you run the ball (an onsides will be needed there). So your gripe is about play selection <5 min with a 2 score lead. Talk about inconsequential. The outcome of the game is significantly assured if you have the ball with <8 minutes and a 2 score lead btw.

Jets game were up 24-10 with 8 minutes to go and were still throwing. We are throwing with less than 6 minutes to go. Thats not "playing to win" thats going for the jugular when the game is over. Raiders game up 30-16 with 8 minutes to go and were still throwing. I will concede that with 5 minutes to go and the same score we ran three straight times, but that did require timeouts to be burned.

Youre missing the examples. After being up multiple scores in both Rams and Jets games we did not just run the ball and play conservative. We threw the ball a lot still in both those cases. That is the point everyone is trying to make.

So youre evidence is that he started off passing in one game? They had 23 runs to 27 passes; of those 23 runs, 8 were by Josh that may have been dropbacks. On the season they are passing 60% of the time. Thats a passing first team that is having success (could be a bad team thats always behind, but were 4-2).

I don't understand where this take comes from. Were passing the rock a lot. They will pass a lot against seattle. I don't see McD as defense first this year.

This seems the right place for this breakdown on morse. Some of these blocks are special and on really critical plays.

Its the pass rush to me. We have the highest paid (or one of the highest) DL in the league. We should be able to generate some pressure. Goff and Carr had a lot of time to throw.

So its more than just probablistic for me. Theres the risk/reward part to it in my analysis. 2 possession game is worth the risk of only being up 7 which probably doesnt hurt you at all. It is more likely you will fail the 2 pt yes, but the value of being up 9 is worth the risk of likely only being up 7. Again (probably for someone who agrees with me), if youre up 9 what do you do after the diggs TD and youre up 15. I think you go for it again to go up 3 possessions. Then were not even talking about Josh's sack as bad cause were up 3 possessions already.

I think youre right it was time, but they didnt actually get a first down. I have 1:24 after the time out (pro football reference), and 84 seconds is just beyond the 2x 40 second play clocks.

we were up 7 and had a choice of PAT or go for 2. I think you are misunderstanding the situation. PAT would make us up 8. 2 pt would be up 9 which is 2 possessions.

My only guess is time? I was also surprised by the kneel on the same set of downs that we were running the ball. I think motors run for 11 took enough time off that we didnt need to do anything more. Hes talking about end of the game. Before half i agree that was the logic.