YattaOkasan

Cause the bills have a lot of interesting match ups. That 430 game is on a Saturday so it’s a national broadcast too. We’re a good team (though lots of people have forgotten) but the NFL hasn’t.

I think you can feel better. I think he will get extended to 2022 to lower his 2021 cap number and cause they like him enough. I don’t think he could command in the open market the 9 mil his 2021 contract has him getting. Make that 9 mil a signing bonus and get his salary to the vet minimum for a 5 million dollar add on year. That saves about 4 mil in cap for 2021. Gives him 9 mil right away and gives him a reasonable contract for 2021 (cap hit is bit high but workable I think).

I was thinking about this and glad to see stats to back it up. Shanahan is still a great coach and I’m sure he can design an inside running game. However, I think our team is built to beat what they currently do (outside run and YAC in the short passing game). Kittle and Jimmy G being out is really beneficial.

Yeah I wish they would zoom in for the stats stuff. I posted about this play and this was where I was getting my info from. The Allen film review has been a pleasure the last couple seasons

I like Simms so I have been following the Florio rankings. He has pretty much been a graphic of who has won recently. He had the dolphins in the top 5 the other week. The bills moved up like 4 spots without playing. It’s been bad this year.

Favored but there have been some weird things like lots of pundits picking the Rams and Pats. Saying we could cover the spread against the jets week 1. I think I saw some saying the heat in Miami would get us. I think there even some doubts us and the raiders. I agree with the post that the Bills are coming. I wanna take care of business cause I think that SNF game could be a coming out party to the league.

I think their interior is weak (3rd string center I think). I think Ed should be able to continue to push the pocket which causes others to clean up. If we can get them to 3rd and 7+ I think we will get off the field at a really high rate.

God that game. I don't want to see them early, but an AFC championship game against them would be amazing (mostly cause not KC). I think the way they played the end of that game would probably become bulletin board material for us.

I can maybe see Jets cause they drove on our D but I think we still moved the ball (missed FG on our first drive). But Titans? Cause we had that weird pick? We scored on the next drive and then held them to a 3 and out on their subsequent dirve.

I like that Pressure Percent!

Agreed that was the original intention but I'm not sure we can keep Matakevich with the way the cap is going down. Seems like too much a luxury.

I think Davis is just occupying. If you do the read option right the QB doesn’t get hit by the conflict defender. If the point is don’t run option at bosa cause he’s too much of an athlete then I’m agree. There are other things you can do to slow his rush that don’t risk your QB (draws and screens). The link is really good for the RPO and he highlights the conflict defender a lot. EDIT in your stills Darryl Williams is 5 yards down field and I think may have been called for ineligible in the game. This is a good sign the pass wasn’t part of the play. 2x EDIT pro football reference play by play confirms a declined penalty on Williams on this play. Back to your OP I agree some of the sugar high Josh plays scares (there was a throw to Beasley that was very scary while he was being sacked).

Simms has sorta been off with us this year. I think he didn’t think we would cover the spread against the jets. Picked rams and pats to beat us too I think (dolphins too?). Obviously most the experts thought the hawks would beat us. On the flip I think he thought we would beat the titans (I know he said we would beat the cards). So he’s just been bad at predicting for us.

So I don’t think there was a pass option on this at all. It was RB run or Allen run. I’m basing this on the conflict defender. Usually you don’t want the conflict defender to be the DE on an RPO cause your QB is gonna get hit. For RPO the LB is the conflict defender some @Cover 1 work where I was getting my understanding from. https://youtu.be/-WXX-mrk-n0

Do you mean the option? RPO we do well with. I would like Allen to be more efficient in the option game cause you’re right most of the problems come from him keeping it. However it’s not bad enough to take it out of the playbook, and he has shown an ability to to use it.

My understanding is that running the option at a good pass rusher can slow them down. so i think that is what they are trying to do with targeting Bosa (otherwise why would you run this at Bosa). Either way I agree Josh messed up on this read here (he has struggled with this at times).

Bosa is the conflict defender for the option run and isnt supposed to be blocked. Allen is reading him (hes staring right at him). Allen thought Bosa was crashing down, but he wasnt (or was athletic enough to recover).

Does Kumerow and his special team abilities make Tyler Matakevich and his 3.35 mil cap savings expendable in 2021?

@Hapless Bills Fan good discussion. I think looking at stills is a very tough way to go about this exercise. To me these are just examples of the defense disguising effectively against Josh. You seem to be saying "What is he thinking?" but to me if youre thinking then youre doing it wrong. He is reacting to what he expects the coverage to be and what he gets. I think he has always been able to go through his progressions, but the story this year is he is doing that more consistently this year. But as for why is he not hitting so and so on this play; its because he is reading the coverage and targeting receivers based on his reads. His read could be wrong but I think he should still trust it (learn to read better rather than not trust your eyes). This is exactly what happens on the pass interference at the start of the game. He think he has cover 3 but he gets quarters, he decides to not look for a check down and goes for Diggs. All of this works better when he gets time. When youre in a scramble getting away seems to be the first priority and then second you get your eyes down field. Your progressions sorta go out the window. Note all this is my opinion i dont know much of anything about the QB position other than what i take in from free content.

Good assessment on the Pats. I see it similarly. I would give the nod to Miami over the Jets as best set up for long term success (besides us). Neither has a QB for sure imo but Miami has more pieces in place while still having a lot of draft capital. Yes Flores owns a 0.444 record currently, but that Dolphins team last year was hot trash and clearly he is better than Gase. My assessment involves Coach, QB, rest of roster. I start with where they are currently and then i noted draft capital (best place to get difference makers). Order of strength in AFC East and how much they could grow: Bills have all three (hard to improve, but you have all three) Miami has rest of roster, decent coach, and maybe a QB (probably could improve if they sell out for a QB again, but will likely pick up pieces to fill an already stacked roster > resulting in losing those pieces in ~3-4 years) Pats have Coach and a bit of the rest of roster (agree not sure how they improve with expected middling performance going forward) Jets have nothing (definitely should improve but a long ways to go)

That one to Diggs last week really wasnt drawn up though. It looks to be a cover 3 beater and they got quarters coverage. Josh just saw the match up and wanted to throw the deep match up of Diggs versus Safety versus check down to Singeltary. The deep go routes are great against man coverage which noone wants to play on us anymore. When they do we tend to run the mesh concepts rather than the go. I think the exception is the Gabe Davis go route from the Chargers game on teh free play.

Thanks for the write up btw. good topic.

Gonna disagree on the Jets being the best HC spot. I think the Chargers are the most desirable HC spot. They have talent and a QB already.

Oh yeah definitely. Hap was just asking about why they protected the PS players they did. The thing that struck me was the Kumerow was not on the list which meant he might get put on the active roster. PS protections have seemed to be about emergency needs in response to Covid for which he could still be called up even if hes out of his 2 elevations (right?).

I think I told you this might be coming when you asked about protected players. Sorry not sure where I gloat.