YattaOkasan

Yup and that’s the situational part of it. The jets were not gonna be able to sustain so we didn’t need to go for it. Also if you convert at 50% it’s 7 points to 6. So the probability is you will come out ahead in most cases if you go for it.

You should care if Star comes back because he has like 0 cap savings if we cut him or he retired. And we would still need to replace him.

Agree total boom or bust defense. Get sacks or give up 7. Also I think they had multiple sacks to end a series (2nd and 3rd down) that sorta inflate those numbers. Basically it’s not like they got a sack a drive that we had to overcome.

As much as I don’t like him this is the reason he would play tomorrow. Sign me up for him playing and helping ensure TJ watt doesn’t get near Josh followed by smith being inactive the rest of the year for a Lombardi.

I think it’s extensions for brown and Morse. Make their salaries into a signing bonuses and give them a smaller salary on the extra year. Brown is not gonna get 9 mil with another team. Offer him 8 mil as a signing bonus and make his 2021 salary vet minimum with a 2022 salary of 5-6 mil. He would be under contact for 13-14mil for two years which is a bit of an overlay but works with cap things well (4mil in savings for 2021)

God that game was such a comedy of errors for the offense. Had a Beasley tip go for a pick. Motor fumbled twice I think (lost one) which caused us to give Gore the most burn. I still nearly throw up thinking about Gore trying to bounce an inside run in the red zone. I also think we had a ton of drive killing penalties and drops.

It’s sorta weird cause he was such a threat downfield as rookie with some sick grabs and angry runs, but could Dawson Knox be more valuable in the short game this year? Diggs is another weapon to stretch the field (Davis is probably better in the vertical passing game too). So instead Knox might have a really good role chipping the rush and then eating against zones underneath (he’s certainly athletic enough for YAC). This sounds really good this week when they will have back up LBs in those zones.

I agree I was very surprised he thought it was just a straight screen (handoff fake was very convincing). Slack is just a messaging tool sorta like TBD. Cover1 has one for members. It’s ways more chaotic (no threads just non stop stream of consciousness). I like some partition also some really good folks here between gunner and bandit and others. surprised you posted back. Also to make sure it’s clear I don’t think we should cut lee smith or anything. I just don’t think he’s a weapon and I would prefer to see some better weapons out there going forward. In the 49ers game he was causing me anxiety at the start. Obviously it was very fun once we started rolling but he had me sweating early (on a related note does anyone know how to find by quarter snap counts)

Apparently cover 1 is taking film breakdowns by request in their slack channel. Erik thinks its just a plain screen and not an RPO. I know hes not a pro but a lot of the players do consult him for breakdowns during the offseason (he has a really good relationship with Lorax for example). i try to stay off social media. this forum is about as far as i go. I agree Kubiak is a good source and appreciate you bringing it up. I only have so much to spend but if i had more i would subscribe.

Thanks. You might be right, but Josh also sorta seems to be looking at the LB #57 as the conflict defender. When #57 over commits to the run he hits Knox cause its hat on a hat after that. Surprised they let us at the grown up table.

Not sure I would call Steelers WR elite (though having 3 in the top 40 of yards is obviously good). I have Bills, Falcons, Hawks, Rams, Chiefs, Cowboys, texans with top two pairings that are better in terms of yardage. It is interesting that they have 3 inside the top 40 but none inside the top 30. However I'm not sure I'm ready to call them elite since they dont really scare me at the top end. It should be noted Big Ben also leads the league in attempts and completions.

They were undefeated at the time! Granted that was by crushing the NFC least; however, only the dallas game (with Dak) was close.

All year. This is my favorite. Cole isnt even passed the defender (let alone looking) when allen rips it. The hips have been huge to him becoming a rotational passer. Its been noted by many as the improvement he made. Josh has always been accurate (see him hitting cross bars pre draft and with Simms) but isnt consistent in live fire. The hips and eating the burger have made him so consistent (Erik and Nate gush over it in the film breakdown). The funny thing is other franchises cant do this. Most QBs would be doing this in college or even HS. Josh couldnt really commit to football full time til he went to Reedly. I think it was said he had ~10k less passes than the other QBs at the draft. This was why the predictions about his career from the analytics guys were wrong. He didnt fit the historical data set.

Thanks for this cause the disguise is what I fear. The analysis from the 49ers game (Simms and @Cover 1) has been that the 49ers didnt disguise much. So I'm not necessarily shocked that Allen tore them up. I do worry that disguise might slow Allen down a bit while he tries to get to the right side of the field (another area of growth this year) and that will result in Watt getting home. I saw someone else mention jet sweep motion and I think thatll also be a tool to get Watt to slow down. Sorta hoping for some draws (RB not QB for this game please), screens, options, and a trick play to get them thinking a bit. I think the trick plays, which Dabs has a rep for now, may have been why the 49ers played a bit more passive.

I was super excited for this one. Been watching these breakdowns for Josh since they started his rookie year. The progression he has shown is amazing.

espn playoff machine says we win the next two and miami loses to the chiefs we win the division with worst case of us losing the next 2 and miami winning out. This essentially means our magic number (from baseball) for winning the division is 3.

Considering that involved games against Russ, Murray, and Herbert thats pretty impressive. We be coming.

Hes open before but just isnt the read. Its a blown coverage which is really the only way he gets open.

It aint much of a trick play since we use it damn near every game. I would have to check but this does not seem to be the play we threw to him against the Rams (that was just Ramsey leaving smith). This back line run has been caught by Kroft and Knox multiple times (we never throw to the eligible tackle this year). I have no doubt Kroft sits on that play and we get 7. The other night was great for the whole team but I do have some concerns on him being on the active roster (ffs dont cut him). On the Diggs DPI that allen pointed out I think Kroft has a decent shot at touching the paint (still would have been tough) where as Smith didnt do much with it. I missed the play where he was wide open but him not really being in the progression in the passing game is the problem. When hes in you can expect run or just put a LB on him in the passing game (hell let him be open underneath hes not getting any YAC as shown in the LAC game). I think Kroft is a better weapon and is hopefully active over him going forward. Im hoping this is a situation where they are seeing what they got with him before the end of the season (in the case they need him). We are an offense predicated on the pass I struggle with why he is active when his primary contribution is in a part of the game we are looking to attack less.

I thought they might give Baker a bone. But super happy they went with the right one

Ready is not a binary thing to me. I think that loss causes them to be less ready than otherwise. I don’t think that’s very wishful at all.

It’s not that they will be thinking of WFT on Sunday or that their routine would change. It’s that they would be dwelling on the loss that would take away from their preparation. This mental preparation is also part of the reason why it’s a week to week league.

I agree and would go so far to say it was his and Dirty Harrys best game of the season. He’s not on the active roster and I think it’s pretty clear he wouldn’t be a clear upgrade THIS season. I think we’ll see more next year.

I don’t think it’s a myth but I agree it’s a tough rebound for them. Difficult to put the screws to your players when they have so many games so soon and have had so much success. I’m hoping they just want a break (there bye came early and unexpectedly) which lets us just steam roll them.

Maybe. I do think they intend to run the clock down at the start of their 2 min drive at the end of the half to not give the other team the ball back (49ers had 3 TOs still so you cant start with an incompletion). It is more likely to look "conservative" than it is to look like it did last night, but I think thats the approach.