YattaOkasan

Lies? how about links? https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviLa00.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneDe01.htm I think the mods @Hapless Bills Fan might need to step in at this point

Pro football reference has multiple of them as OLB. You claimed it was the mode early on based on your logic. The requirement for evidence lies with you. Another poster said they ran the numbers (did not present data) and said it was not. As i was scanning for that post im reminded you thought that hes an edge rusher. Clearly the NFL doesnt agree but you think you are wiser than them, and this isnt really a good faith discussion i see. I appreciate the comment about the pro bowl, but i am reminded why i dont engage with you on this board.

1) Several of these are OLB or Wills so again not so sure youre comparison is correct. Are we expanding this to all off ball LB? For ILB in 3-4 or MLB in 4-3 I dont see such a disparity between the conferences. 2) The OP seemed to be saying that TFL numbers show Edmunds wasn't so bad. You tried to say TFNG was the mode of the data set based on logic. That was wrong. The pro bowl discussion has gotten a bit out of hand. I'll take the point that its not as big of a thing to hang your hat on based on the covid year and potential differences between conferences. Not sure where visibility became a thing but it doesnt matter to me. Overall the TFL topic is a reason to be hopeful for your point 3, but you seem to be fighting it. 3)I was def on the "this team will go as far as Allen takes them" train cause of the correlation between QB and team performance, but I was absolutely expecting Edmunds to have the break out year (Allen I expected some improvement but not breakout) and I think most of the board thought so too (see the post above that you liked). I agree with your last 3 sentences. To this point he has not played to his potential. I believe you had previously stated you would not pay him his 5th year? If I'm wrong ignore this, but I don't get the logic in that. A young freak athlete without good instincts at a position that players seem to grow into (couple recent notable exceptions) seems ideal for a 5th year. If youre last 3 sentences are how you feel I think were pretty aligned. I think he does a lot more than shows up in the stats but he does need to make more game changing plays from a position where cheaper talent can be found.

it’s a fair point but you’re still giving it a deep discount as I don’t think the disparity in the conferences is that big. I only brought up the fans to say he wasn’t voted in by them. I don’t really care if non bills fans know who he is; I do know that players and coaches think highly of him (with caveats about potential disparities between the conferences understood) your final paragraph is eerily similar to how peeps were talking about josh last year. If the the kid is a competitor and a leader (and by most accounts he’s at least the second) then I’m pretty excited about what he’s gonna do this year. Heck last year was supposed to be his coming out party not Josh’s.

See posts above. It’s def not mode as I suspected. Agree with much of the rest. I do think though the league see his value different than fans or pff. Again his pro bowl nod came from coaches and players. They aren’t infallible but I think they have a very different perspective whats good. Thanks for the convo.

Why was his pro bowl selection a joke? He didnt win the fan vote which is largely how jokes make it to the pro bowl. Your reference to best MLBs not playing last year was not about Tre's pro bowl was it? Also I think Tre has more value over Hightower at this point in his career (agree Mosley is better but he is also a bit of an unknown, obviously Bush has played better). There has been talk that with AJ Klein on the field Tre was trying to do too much and that game may have been an example of that. He needs to play better than last year, but was totally fine with exercising the 5th year option on a physical freak that may need more time.

Thanks for the response. Appreciate the 2nd point. And agree with much of the third (I don’t think McD thinks it’s devalued). on the first point I guess we need to think about exact yardage and how the data set was formed. If it is in integers I am very certain that 0 is not the mode. 1 or 2 would seem to be the most common result. If we’re gonna parse it out to decimals the. Yes you’re probably right TFNG would be higher but i strongly doubt any data set would have that much granularity.

I don’t think TFNG is the mode in this data set as it’s only 9% of the data set. Getting some gain will almost certainly be a higher percentage. I understand your point of TFNG being a big number but all TFL is actually a bigger number so it’s a mischaracterization to say it’s a little important number being added to an insignificant big number. Your point on short distance situations is interesting too. You have de valued them quite a bit IMO. A TFNG in short yardage situation is more beneficial than on first down. This is in a direct sense. If you are trying to say a TFL on first down is more important because they indirectly cause turnovers then I could be convinced (show the data please). However the short yardage TFNG causes punts (as you said desirable) or keeps points off the board. you say the position is devalued but then say how much his 5th year contract is and he should just be an edge. All these things can’t be true. He made a pro bowl (without doing well in fan vote). And part of the 5th year formula incorporates how much the position gets paid. he needs to play better than last year but he’s above average and flirting with top 10 seems right to me.

He did it again with Simms two seasons ago at OBD. agree that’s a great watch though. That’s where dilfer lays out the fallacy of the idea that completion percentage is the same as accuracy.

You don't think theres an argument for either Jackson (MVP winner) or Murray (2019 Offensive rookie of the year) over Herbert (2020 offensive rookie of the year)? Simms was pretty high on Herbert and had him #2 in the class (well ahead of Tua). That was him going out on a limb last year imo so now youre gonna say hes doing click bait by not having him high enough. Why is it so hard to accept that this is his opinion and is not for clicks.

Just want to frame this a bit differently. I think we are already challenging KC for the AFC crown. I can understand your arguments on the other players (would disagree on Tremaine as he has made a Pro Bowl without winning fan vote and we have had good years against TE before this year). Again we are challenging KC as it is and if the listed players become special we are routinely beating them (not just challenging them).

Sorry one clarification I need. Broke the record for completion percentage? I think thats a bit different than accuracy (Jones may still be very accurate). Completion % has accuracy incorporated into it, but also has things like processing in it. The blending of completion percentage and accuracy was not a wise development.

Agree accuracy is more important but completion percentage is something that can increase over time for many reasons. Arm talent will not increase appreciably. The challenge with lower arm talent is you need to make up for it with processing. I don’t know Jones wonderlic off hand but I would overall think it’s easier to process at Bama than it will be in the NFL

I would take those 3 over Brady? I would take Murray Jackson over Herbert but not the other two (I can't remember the list and am a bit confused by your sentence structure). I think hes wrong on Taysom Hill, but I really don't think the list is for clicks. Last year he actually tempered his list quite a bit and had Josh only at like 18 even though he really like him. He did similar with Burrow. His list maybe more out on a limb this year but I don't think its just for clicks. Do you think his picking of Josh and Lamar over the other 3 QBs in 2018 was just for clicks? Same for choosing Herbert over Tua? If hes just doing things for clicks then hes had well above average luck. For the other post about KC and disguising coverage, it was some of that but moreover that game was them CHANGING coverage to match the audible and Josh not having enough time to get back into the right play.

I wonder what his thoughts were on Josh coming into last year. I was excited but was still blown away by how well he did. I also like that PFF hasn't recognized that Josh sits outside the data set they use to make their predictions. One thing that site is good at is the non interpretative stats during different personnel groupings, down and distance, etc. Their grades though lack critical context and I don't think are that valuable to the NFL community.

I think they benefited from an easier schedule last year. They avoided the chiefs. Agree their D will win the games but I suspect that Ben’s arm will be a limitation earlier this season. They will struggle at the end of the season again. agree with @Sammy Watkins' Rib that running the ball is key to beating the chiefs. Joe Marino had some really good stats on games they’ve lost. Titans are so interesting. With that defense will they have to pass more? Will they be patient enough to keep pounding the rock? If they get impatient I don’t think it’ll go there way as well. Someone quoted the final score of that game last year but it was a comedy of errors (Roberts had two TOs that lead to easy TDs).

Hmm.. I'm taking a Wins Above Replacement approach. Because of depth at position I think the top 5 is pretty easy with this approach (order is a bit debatable with poyer/hyde having no backups). Allen Diggs White Poyer Hyde Dawkins Edmunds Milano Williams Beasley At the end of the season i suspect i might put Epenesa on this list over someone that gets injuried.

Great post. Would note the Titans have a very weak division perennially which explains some of why they have so many winning seasons.

Disagree. Tyrol was never the runner that Lamar is. Ravens are something else.

3 games but I am also hopeful. Reason for my hope is they saw him for more than just the 3 games in 2019. They saw him for training camp. If he was balling out for those weeks it would explain why there wasn’t more of an investment in what I still consider the position group that scares me the most.

I have lots of questions with the Titans. They ran nearly half their plays with two or less WR. I get that they have two great ones but they have lost the TE threat that was so critical to running 12. I don’t know if I trust tannehill to win with 3 WR sets. Can they make their offense work after gaining julio but losing their OC a top 10 TE and a slightly above average WR2? Obviously that defense is terrible. They can compete for their division but Im not super worried if we see them in the playoffs. Last years game was a very strange situation.

On Allen I would say there was plenty of evidence even in last years weird offseason that he had managed to change his throwing mechanics. Content creators were pouring over every rep they could to see it. I saw whole write ups to videos from his time with Diggs in Florida where there was focus on his "eating the cheeseburger." So I went into the offseason hopeful that Josh would continue to improve based off previous years and was super excited to see some data to confirm the improvement happened. These are small data sets and maybe not entirely relevant data sets (a huge lesson from Josh Allen draft grade), but it is some that can be used if youre aware of the first two caveats. https://www.cover1.net/taming-josh-allens-arm-how-mechanical-tweaks-have-buffalos-qb-primed-for-a-year-3-leap/

You had this line "I think he is toasted, but I am not concern because i have no idea what is going to happened." That sounded a lot like what Bills fans would say about our teams in the offseason for problems we could/should see coming. I don't think its too early to know what weaknesses could be. Until they play at all we wont necessarily know what the weaknesses will be. I do think about what are the most likely way teams fail. For one example with the Bills, I'm worried Star is not gonna play well and Dirty Harry will not take the step this year (2 ACLs blown out now) which results in sub par play from our iDL. This would affect Ed Oliver and Tremaine's development, and ultimately continue to be a "problem" for the team in run defense. Star was not at voluntary OTAs so that was some data to suggest that these fears could be realized, but as you said its too early to tell. Hes in the building now and Harry looks absolutely jacked so I'm less concerned. Still don't mind thinking about how we could end up not meeting our goals which is pretty obviously making it to the super bowl. Maybe this again speaks to state of franchises with the Bills fans thinking about this type of stuff, and Pats fans dont need to.

You don't have any concerns on what your team weaknesses will be? I do think the coin has flipped; yall have some serious Billeive syndrome. I agree coaching staff is your best reason for hope and will likely continue to be a strength. I'm all over on the defense. Secondary is obviously great but is motivation a concern (starting McCourty over Jackson was sorta immature and Gilmore is already holding out). I think MLB will be a weakness, but the 5 that play the line look good. Patricia will help. Offensively its OL and TE and the rest of the skill positions dont concern me. Overall game script will be important, and if you fall behind more than a TD that could be trouble. Youre decently set up to compete with teams that are focused on the pass (both offensively and defensively), but you may have trouble with teams that are strong in rush (both offensively and defensively). Honestly wouldnt be totally shocked if you beat the Bills but lost to the Jets.

It was more the comment itself indicated some level of concern (otherwise let it be and comment on the topic) Yeah Cam is not gonna be the answer, and I am very happy yall didnt get Fields. I think you can be worried about your QB position with this being preliminary data to support those fears. If I see dawson knox dropping balls im gonna be worried. Star didnt show up and i was worried. You dont have to be too concerned, but it is early evidence that the concerns are real.