YattaOkasan

I struggle with the Pitt game. We ended the game in the red zone after holding the ball for 7+ min. Thats at least 3 more points that we decided not to score and is likely 7. With that in mind against one of the best defenses last year, I think the offense did its job in that game too.

Running quick passes can be easier said than done sometimes. You need a really high efficiency to score. Feel like a broken record, but while we had trouble with TE last year it has not been an Achilles heel for McD. In 2018 and 2019 we were one of the best against TE with regards to fantasy and in 2017 we were middle of the pack. Agree with your thoughts in the second half of the post. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/fantasy-points-against-TE.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/fantasy-points-against-TE.htm https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/fantasy-points-against-TE.htm

Houston too

Sure I don’t think it’s wrong to say that. I question if it’s that big of an effect though. That’s what I thought you meant with the 11-0 comment. Seems like we both agree they werent strong 11-0 and Ben is better at the start. I just don’t think he’s that much better to make much of a difference.

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year. They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time.

But it isnt meaningless. At the end of the season it predicted 12 of 14 playoff teams. That was better than DVOA (same as weighted DVOA though). the weight of its meaning is debatable but to say it has no meaning is wrong.

Thanks for the response. Another good discussion with you. Above I mentioned context and I think point diff offers a good starting point for the discussion of what you expect from a team. The DVOA discussion you responded to is a good metric but is also has some challenges (many of the same you highlighted with point diff). Tenn is 28th in defensive DVOA should they have made the playoffs. KC is bottom half in defensive as well should they have made the super bowl. Seattle has a weighted DVOA of 5th and that didnt help that at all in the postseason (losing to #8 LAR). Heck Cleveland presents challenges to using DVOA as well as weighted DVOA has them at 18 and they beat Pitt (10th). All of these items need some context around them, but I disagree that point differential means almost nothing (means about as much as DVOA from above analysis). Below is the link to how point diff is used by pro football reference and 538. Is it only DVOA that you think is better. I think you previously mentioned many better metrics (which makes sense if you think point diff is essentially meaningless). https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/indexf6a9.html?p=337

? we played the dolphins early last year but it was more of us beating FitzMagic (White interception and Hyde return were 2019); the other dolphins game was the last game of the season and that didnt come down to the wire. I am in general disagreement about McD getting less aggressive with a lead. We had this discussion a lot last year with the 3rd quarter woes. But it was less coaching as we continued to call pass plays at the same rate. Just some bad luck in execution that we turned around later in the season.

For sure. Your comment caused my mind to contrast their lack of talent at the position versus our overwhelming depth. For both teams there seems to be pretty consistent performance from all players on the depth chart; just with us were talking about an all pro that starts and they are talking about just a guy that starts.

Put it on Sanders' and Mckenzie's board too. We can also spin the dial through division of labor in the slot. All 3 could have a good day if we wanna keep legs fresh.

Im not a point differential stan but i do think it adds value. I thought the steelers were a paper tiger and point differential was indicative there. Cleveland was worse in Point differential than us and left the playoffs earlier (is that what youre saying)? doesnt that support point differential at predicting playoff success? For Miami, there were some other metrics like FG, TO, and Defensive TDs that indicated a regression to me. Overall though I i think point differential has done better than most. What were the many more important metrics for predicting future success?

Needs to be taken in context. The Steelers were the other team being discussed in the point differential discussion last year. And as @Mango mentioned they finished weak and were knocked out of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion. The context to me is why point differential so close. For us our D was injured and we got healthy the second half which resulted in us dominating teams. For the Steelers it was a concern as they took a couple more injuries and their schedule got harder.

Tomlin removed him as captain so hes at least raising the ante.

Do we know the vaccination status in the CB room? I sorta assume Tre is. Maybe that’s why they feel so comfortable with so few? Would make sense given that we know we have at least two DL that are not vaccinated.

Bates and Doyle inactive means you can only dress 46 so get two more. I’m certain at least one DL (there are 11!) will be inactive.

I got Doyle, Obada/Basham, Butler, Dodson, Breida/Moss. I think Kumerow and Smith offer too much ST value. Hamlin is a good guess though.

Are we talking about watt not being named a captain? He seems more up in the air than I thought at the start of the weekend.

So I don’t need to watch now that the season has been spoiled

Only last year were we weak against tight ends. We have been good other years. Run defense has been a problem but I don’t think they have the horses on OL.

I think youre calling Gronk last year a star? He played well in that game but I'm not sure he was a star for the year. Also looking prior to the last 7 years there was a dearth of TE talent in Super Bowl. I agree a star TE can be a tactical advantage but with limited resources how do you prioritize getting one. Are they more important than a number 3 receiver? a number 2?

Hes essentially being double teamed so yes i think it can happen. On the cody and ike discussions i think its gonna be a rotation right away. ford might start but i think ike will get reps in the games.

Word I agree. Thanks.

Sure but if were gonna contextualize the losses I think the wins should be as well. Rams had 4 TOs! in that game. Cardinals gave up a huge defensive TD that was I think at least a 10 point swing. Oakland you took off his win total but is almost certainly a loss if he stays in the game. Also very hard to get too excited by his <175 yards passing in wins against chargers and Pats. I also see some fortunate ST plays like a blocked punt against chargers and missed game tying FG on the final drive of the Cardinals game. Basically wins and losses are a team stat. I thought you were on board with that.

Early in the 4th quarter last year of week 2 I realized we were playing Fitzmagic. When Josh out dueled him I knew it was gonna be a special year. So Fitz was pretty good last year (granted all the caveats about our defense).

Cause of the dead cap Butler is not a great person for the vested veteran re-sign game. You have to pay him his guaranteed salary and then re-sign him with a new deal. Doesn't make much sense.