YattaOkasan

1 FL in 8 fumbles is sorta not random. If its 50/50 for a recovery (I think odds are worse, but having trouble finding data) then i get a p factor 0.04. Thats statistically significant (despite a small data set of 8). So his fumble loss rate is not necessarily random. Thats amazing. First glance i threw up because of the song. But the histogrm was great.

I got 1 fumble loss in his career (I believe 2019 steelers game with watt getting him good, iirc). Looking up fumble loss rate.

It is high now. But it seems good prior to this year right? I got 1.6% prior to this year. More context seems that 1.6% is not good. with this year it would be worse. Digging into fumbles lost. Not sure I agree fumbles on the field are random. Is there a histogram that shows this?

I guess. But I think football is a situational game and as such a fumble on the boundary seems very different situationally than one even 5 yards away.

I guess but I dont really consider them fumbles. There is no risk. Theres some good stats about how often youre expected to recover a fumble and its low. Being near the boundary seems like it would greatly increase the chance of recover (one reason why I was ok with Allens flip to Knox in Houston). I wonder if/how thats accounted for in that stat.

Agree but in the Miami game the fumble outbounds on the sideline on that play doesnt present much risk to me. Also there was a face mask penalty on that play, not sure how much it mattered to the fumble. EDIT: all his fumbles are out of bounds. is this a concern. hes caring the ball in the correct hand. It doesnt seem to be much risk to me at all.

Sorry was being a bit snarky. I agree.

so not weak?

Some mention of his pro bowls. Will also just leave a line in here that he has been a captain for 3 consecutive years. Dudes franchise no matter how many silly threads posters on here start.

K I disagree that First half is killer instinct time, but understand the logic. He was really good last year. He was good yesterday. I dont think not going for it during those two times CONTRIBUTED to the loss to Pitt. Our offense wasn't looking too good (see the countless posts on Josh allen regression 2021) so I don't have a qualm with those decisions. Again first half and only mid field for both of those. Do you think we should have gone for it from 4 and 5+ but inside the 10? I have more of a bone to pick with those (especially the one in the 4th quarter) than the two 4th and 1s in the first half.

4th and 1 I give Allen the ball on a sneak. He has a crazy good success rate on those plays. But yes let Josh be Josh.

Hmm... he had a couple of 4th and shorts in the FIRST half that he didnt go for. I think thats a slightly different conversation than 4th quarter game on the line. Additionally he did go for it 4th and 1 in the 3rd quarter up 10-6. That was the Sutton play that gave the ball in mid field, and Pitt turned that short field into a TD. I dont know how win probabilities change but I assume first half aggression is less meaningful than second half. Do you still think his lack of aggression in the first half of that game contributed to the loss when compared to his willingness to do so in the second half?

Yes McD didnt do well in the AFCCG but yesterday he went for it on 4th and 1 up 21-0. If anything AFCCG was the aberration.

Was howard gonna be able to land in bounds with that ball? I really didnt think he had a chance at being in bounds which is why he didnt catch it really. Overall, Josh has played worse than he did on average last year; however, theres not enough sample size here to call it a regression. I count 5 games with similar rating to his two this year. Some those were even... back to back. I agree that teams are playing with super light boxes and we need to punish them for that (particularly in the second half of closer games, thinking of the Pitt game). I got a lot of faith they will get things turned around.

Allen wasn't very good against Indy? What were you watching? I thought he was the only reason we were in the game let alone won it. Our defense got run over when we had a 2 score lead in the 4th.

Disappointing losses and not meeting expectations was the routine of the drought and didnt cause us to hyperventilate. We should do what we always used to do. Drink heavily.

You’re right you can dress 47 but why not put 8 active if the 8th is free particularly if you got 9 on the 53. But yes 47 is the limit. Thanks I was wrong. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29820641/inside-new-nfl-roster-rules-2020-expanded-rosters-practice-squad-injured-reserve%3fplatform=amp

46 if you only have 7. I think teams were getting into trouble by not having enough OL for games. 3 injuries is a lot but not impossible so the league decided to incentivize keeping an 8th iirc

Think that was after Beyoncé brought the house down.

I see. I worry about bush more in coverage than I do in the run fits. I am not convinced he’s 100% yet as ACLs can be tricky. Cover 1 had a Steelers reporter as a guest and he didn’t think he was all the way back yet. Thanks for explaining your thinking

Why are they impossible to run on? If anything I think they have been run on late in the season. Heck we held the ball for 7 minutes to the end the game last year. patriots game at home was miserable weather too iirc.

I love the idea of them playing dime. Please take more front 7 players off the field. I thought it was a race to the QB was how they were gonna play with their front 7. Ain’t gonna be that if you have 7 DBs. And who is coming off the field for what should be a pretty weak DB. Heard they like Norwood so maybe they run dime with him. ACLs have been tricky for some players (see Phillips) so maybe bush doesn’t have his explosiveness back yet and he comes off? I think he’s active at Buffalo rumblings.

Pegula jet?

I dont want Moss or Singletary having anything to do with blocking Watt. I want Williams for that. I'm a little confused on your big gainer line. Josh has always pushed the ball down the field with high air yards per attempt and air yards per completion (these did come down last year). So they have shown that hitting the big 20+ play is part of the game plan.

He did pretty well against us in 2019 but that was without D Will. 0.5 Sacks, 1 Pass deflection, 4 tackles, forced fumble and 2 QB Hits