YattaOkasan

Thanks. I was referring to when Bills/Chiefs played earlier. Against the Texans Kelce had a big day cause Al Shaair could/would not stay with him. Conversely when we played KC, TB was leaving his coverage responsibilities at times to guard Kelce. TB's focus on Kelce is why Gray had a fair bit of impact (2 first down catches, 2 TDs on 5 targets). Will be interesting to see what happens this coming week.

I got 4 for 23 with 2 TDs and 2 more first downs from pro football reference (care to link yours). “Big Day” was maybe hyperbolic but he was important to them maintaining and finishing drives. Worthy seemed to be focus of their explosive plays.

I've been yelling at my TV the last few games. Turns out NFL doesnt care. Glad we were ahead of the trend and are ready. Certain everyone will PULL their weight https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-wont-instruct-officials-to-throw-flags-for-pulling-runners Agree. best way to avoid the KC devil magic is to blow it out of the water. Sorta what happened last game. Josh blew it up with that run; else we know it wouldve been a stupid final drive. TB >> Al Shaair. Al Shaair is fun but was leaving Kelce open all day. The diving TD by Mahomes is a great example. Kelce just shuffles behind Al Shaair and is wide open to catch a ball that wasnt zipped in there. If you look at the film from the first game TB was seemingly breaking coverage assignment to go cover Kelce. Think to some degree thats why Gray had such a big day.

Ruled as doubtful. If he plays he ain’t doing much and we probably can still play man.

If he doesn’t score on the 60 yarder and then we stuff him for next 14 carries for 0 yards we would hit 4.0 ypc that he said is so bad. I could totally live with that line. I still contend median is more valuable than average.

Love the talk of mindset. I agree bills are getting a considerable edge and it started from the beginning of the week. Biggest comparison was how Josh and Lamar answered questions about playing each other and being buddies. Lamar said he doesn’t hang out cause he’s trying to beat Josh which fine and totally reasonable. Josh gets a similar question and says he doesn’t play against Lamar but rather plays against the ravens defense. Ravens are great but Buffalo feels laser focused on the task.

or... maybe 4.0 yards per carry is not a winning strategy and those teams had to rely on their QBs cause they got behind in games. Bears as a case study. They rushed more than they passed on 1st and 10. They averaged 3.8 yards per rush. Then on 2nd and 4-6 they rushed 46% of the time and got 4.0 yards per carry. Then on on 3rd and 1-3 they rushed it 46% of the time and averaged and got 2.6 yards per carry. That resulted in just over a 50% success rate on 3rd down (14/26). Its not sustainable to go keep a drive going this way. The YPC is inflated by the 3rd and long carries that dont get the yardage. Youre essentially saying that 29 teams have a good rushing attack. If you think the league should run more then I think youre gonna have a long discussion with some analytics people. yards per rush versus yard per pass attempt is pretty decisively in favor of yards per pass attempt.

So you must think Chicago and Cowboys and their 4.0 ypc should run the ball all the time.

Thats fair. EPA sometimes needs explanation, but then again median might as well. maybe my hope for statistical understanding by the average fan is too high.

I wish we had more granularity to rushing numbers (3.3, 3.6, 4.0 yards etc) cause I think median would be a far more valuable metric than average that as you note is affected more by outliers which in this case are usually one sided.

watching his film breakdowns of Josh from 2018, 2019, and 2020 was awesome. Gave great insight as Josh bloomed into the terminator he is now.

Lol then everyone sucks at rush defense. 4.0 yards per carry would tie for 3rd best this year.

Hes had a bunch taken from him too cause defense let him down. 13 seconds, browns in 19, patriots last year, denver last year, hail murray, eagles last year.

It was a dumb way of me saying I want to see them drop back passing. I would be shocked if Cam is on the field the same time as Henry in this game. But would love to see Cam get some run cause we’re up multiple scores late in the game.

Shoot how much you looking to pull in from betting on this game.

Im basking in it. I am the Jack Nicholson GIF. The disrespect is gonna be on every screen at OBD. If run defense is truly a "mindset" as Daquan Jones has said, then displacement (which was lower than i expected in the Denver game) will be minimal and we have a good shot at stopping Henry. That and Josh had his most efficient season since 2020 (maybe better even) after the narrative all season was how we couldnt make up for the loss of Diggs and Gabe. Yeah sign me up for all the negative national media coverage. Lol that means KC are the russian gangsters?

hard time is interesting. we average 2.75 points per drive (this also doesnt count the INT at the goaline that otherwise would be 7 points if not for it bouncing off Coleman). 2.75 points per drive would still be 4th in the league (though lower than our 2.92 average). Maybe thats considered "tough" but i think Miami's ball control is what made that seem tougher than it was.

I think DL and Milano. 42 total snaps mean a total of 168 DL snaps. Sum of all DL players here is 158. So 10 plays of dime with odd mirror and another 8 plays with milano off the field. The 1 play taron was off seems to have gone to ingram.

"then we shall fight in the shade. Hey-ey-ey-ey"

I'm hoping Cam gets some run in a dime package with odd mirror cause we have a big lead and they have to be drop back passers (take a DL off in this scenario cause youre gonna rush 3 with a LB spy). But then again i was hoping for an Ankou call up and hes off the PS again so what do i konw. I do agree with your line of thought that we wont be relying on these back 7 players as much in this game as we did last time.

17 players had double digit sacks. What do you want out of a first round selection? There’s just not that many double digit sack guys that you can say 8 is pedestrian or that there are double digit sack guys clearly available at the end of the first round. The intuitive next question is who would you have taken? That’s why comparison to other players drafted at a similar spot matters.

dude essentially thinks that you shouldnt draft DEs in the first round with this logic. I (and many others) have a different approach to team development.

How many players do you think had double digit sacks? You seem to think thats the only way to justify a first round pick. Essentially you dont think 1st rounders should be spent on DEs then. Answer only 17 double digit sack guys this year.

so i think they will run man primarily in obvious passing situations to force lamar to play quicker. i think his "when blitzed" stats aint great (jackson krueger might have had it in his preview). the tell for this will be personnel i suspect. when hill goes in for Henry plan to play man. ravens WRs besides flowers are not great M2M separators (though Agholor is a bit of a vertical threat). If anything i worry about TEs (likely, andrews) and RB Hill getting open on safeties and LBs more than i worry about their WR in man coverage.

Last game they were running odd mirror for the rush and then an cover 2 man behind it. Pretty awesome scheme for obvious passing downs because the weakness of 2 man is noone accounts for the QB. with 3 guys selling out to get the QB off his spot you get better pressure than cage rushing with 4. its called odd mirror. they ran it this year against KC as well (among other games). They ran it last game as well. If we can get Henry slowed down and they need to pass (hill being on the field would be the tell to they are gonna pass) this is the rush i expect to see. I do recall that but him being on the field but injured doesnt scare me enough to not plan man coverage. if he was fully healthy i would have second thoughts.