YattaOkasan

Edge is my biggest concern. WR after that. CB and Safety could also be considerations. For the most part though I feel pretty good and wanna see what they have

I really like Davis but wouldnt call him explosive (not athletically; RAS of 4.64). I think his vision and grit (agree with tenacity) is what gets me excited (great compliment to Cook). Hands are an interesting question. I would be very surprised if he had less drops than Cook in college (think it was 1 or 2 for cook at UGA). Cook really had an outlier bad year last year (year 1 drops were not a problem). Hoping he regresses back to the mean in a good way. They are different players so I dont think its wise to comment on if either could replicate what one has done. It would be pretty easy for lots of people to say an athletically limited RB would not be able to take advantage of the space that cook did. But again they compliment each other; i trust davis to get that hard 3rd down or TD because he wont be denied (basically his life story).

Great point and also would note that he didnt have a red zone pick for a long time (granted it popped up this past year). Dude has been so good.

I have generally really appreciated Brasky's reporting. Agree Shakir is not diminutive so he erred here, but his reporting is usually very good so I will give a pass....

You think WR5/6 is getting 600 yards? Yeah he’s not as valuable as a 600 yard receiver but those are WR3/4 numbers. And you really don’t think Mack Hollins would get vet minimum pay to be on the bottom of a 53 man roster? OJ Howard is the relevant example right? but even he made a 53 man roster after we cut him. And I think Howard had less of track record than Hollins.

You think Hollins will come back to the PS? I think the dude will get paid to play somewhere else. Hes worthy of a roster spot in the NFL for ST alone. Don't think he makes his way back to PS if he is cut. 3.6k snaps over 6 years is nothing to thumb your nose at.

Can someone to point me to the terrible passing stats when Brady took over. I see 139 completions on 229 attempts for 244 yards per game. This is 10 yards per game down from with Dorsey and 6% lower completion percentage, but i sorta don't see it. As noted Josh ran more so he more than made up for that with his legs. Would also like the reference for worse rushing efficiency under Brady. Dude sure seemed to help us win a lot with worse efficiency in all phases. Unless it was hte much maligned defense. Edit: I see the rushing numbers now which went from 4.59 YPC to 4.43 YPC. Im pretty meh on that as well. Suspect success % bears out some of raw stats here. Would also note that Brady faced NYJ, Eagle, Chiefs 2x, Cowboys, Chargers Patriots, Fins, Steelers, (6 play off teams and the Jets defense) is significantly tougher competition than NYJ, LV, Wash, Fins, Jags, Giants, Patriots, Bucs, Bengals, Broncos (2 play off teams and the Jets defense). So slightly less efficient numbers are perfectly acceptable from that perspective

I remember us using a different dime package a few years ago against mahomes. Rather than taking an LB off for a DB and only having one; we took a DL off and left Milano, Edmunds, Taron on the field. I would like to see more of this as LB seems to be a strength of the defense. It would probably be a edge that comes off if were not getting good heat with them anyway.

at 0:23 seconds he gains great separation even though hes slowing down. Thats a TD if the throw leads him at all. This is madness to say routine separation and I shouldve never engaged with some one that doesnt have good faith discussion. This is for the play that starts at exactly 0:10 seconds on the all routes film not the next play that starts at 0:15. Wow you really wanted to discuss the 0:15 play. That run is ordinary to you? Burden is on you to prove it. How many times did LSU give up a play like that if their defensive scheme was so bad that they gave up such an ordinary TD.

I provided further exact time stamps to look at to try to assess them with you. I mentioned i hadnt had a chance to look at that video even though I intended too. I likely dont have the time to get stills of every play that I listed. Did you look at the specific time stamps of 7:11, 0:14, 18:56 to show you examples of when he was getting out of the ordinary separation? I was trying to understand why you thought those plays that are out of the ordinary separation imo are considered routine to you. Again i would note that you need to not just look at separation when the ball gets to the receiver and need to look at separation at the time of ball release. Did you look for all -22 as i suggested? broadcast view really limits what you can see (7:11 and 18:56 have all 22 angles). Seems like you dont want to engage as I seemingly put more work into your exercise than you did and then you didnt want to reengage (3 line response when i gave examples and wanted to go one by one after already giving you a good bit of my time). If you wanna be miserable about Keon as a prospect because you didnt look fully enough; then go be you. I tried to engage in good faith. My bad and shouldve realized based on your past behavior on the board (really just wanted to watch that video).

You’re gonna need to show me safeties and off coverage players getting turned around that much for me to believe that is just routine. I was pretty surprised how much trouble he created in that regard. You need to pause when the throw is being made more too. Look at 7:11 and tell me that’s not very open and then where does the ball land (comically in the wrong spot). That is not good coverage by S. Same thing at 0:14 (there is all 22 of this play if you really need to see how open he is). 18:56 he’s being held gets few yards of separation that he has to give up cause the ball was thrown to the inside for some reason (wrong shoulder). Also think you gotta stop watching broadcast angle only cause it seems to be limiting how you evaluate. Additionally what you call ordinary catches are him creating separation at the catch point. He hasn’t learned all the nuances of route running but making space to make a play on the ball translates from bball and he’s very good at it. So you say push off (lol penalty was on the defender) or routine when he just made it look easy cause he has good ability to get separation at the catch point. If I get time, I can do stills but I came away from your exercise feeling better than I did going into it. I saw many out of the ordinary plays.

Agree with much of what you wrote, but would note that Bernard had to beat out Tremaine Edmunds and Bishop has to be out Rapp (or Edwards). I think Bishop has a much easier task than Bernard did.

Had been meaning to look at this so thanks for adding here. Heres my quick list of beyond ordinary plays with a bit of why. I also don't highlight a few plays that were big chunk plays that were created by his physicality. Kids still learning the game as has been noted but I see him turn DBs around quite a bit already (wish we had all routes and not just broadcast views for most of these games). I did know that a lot of his work was in the screen game and am maybe a bit less excited for what he offers based on the video. However, I am more excited for him as a vertical threat after the video. Not sure FSU utilized him in a way to best showcase his talents. 0:08 separation at release (poor throw) 0:16 Run after catch 3:04 separation at release (poor throw) 4:38 run after catch 5:40 created separation at stem (drop) 6:02 separation 6:15 heads up uncover 7:04 turned safety around (poor throw) 7:40 game winner contested 9:20 one handed contested 10:53 separation 12:30 run after catch 12:40 cooks zone coverage 13:15 cooks zone coverage 13:45 contested catch 14:50 yards after catch 15:17 one handed contested TD 18:10 And the foul TD 18:42 separation at release (wrong shoulder throw) 21:08 separation and run after catch

750 was me eyeballing how much the average was for Round 1 and Round 2 and then multiplying by 2 (figured the total numbers, not per game was easier to work with). It is optimistic but I think the number of available targets justifies the expectation. First WR in Round 2 went to the panthers which has a very anemic offense. 8th WR overall went to the crowded Broncos WR room (7th in targets). The point of this exercise was to look a bit more broadly to get a better understanding of what to expect. You highlight two precise examples when others should also be considered (7th WR off the board, last WR of Round 1 had 900+ yards, 2nd WR of Round 2 had 750+ yards). I think adding in these 3 pretty relevant data points indicate its not "extremely optimistic." All 3 of those players went to good passing offenses and got 90+ targets. Do you think Coleman's opportunity is closer to Mims & Mingo or closer to Rice, Reed, Addison?

Coleman I think be close to the 1st round average and so should comfortably be over the 2nd round average (I think he has 750 yards plus). I think Bishop starts pretty quickly if not out of the gate. I think he beats this projection as he gets a few sacks from playing close to the line so much. I don't think McD has held back 7 rookies out if he thinks they can play (Benford, White, Edmunds, Taron). Milano and Levi are the only rookies I can think he "held" back and both were super sleepers (Elam is the only other rookie starter, but that was more of an injury need iirc). Carter is tough to beat 0.2 splash per game but probably can beat 0.1 (average without 2023) cause he seems to have a knack for swatting passes (did this metric include TFL @appoo?) Davis will fall short of 500 yards so I think will be below this metric, but would exceed the TD metric if you calculated. I don't think hell get touches that set up for a lot of yards. Also I think Ty Johnson will start as the primary back up to cook so Davis may suffer from only have situational use early.

4th in the league in sacks! You may not like what we have done but please couch your takes in reality. And if you say “but that wasn’t from the edge” you’re just arguing against yourself cause that shows we don’t need edge. I would like more confidence in the room too but wow this was a silly take.

Even 265 is pretty big nowadays for edge. Average weight for that position is coming down

Meh I think it’s foolish too pursue. Practice rules make it hard for him to do both long snapper and backup center. Same reason back up QBs don’t hold much now. LS, P, K just go to another field and rep it a million times. I get the desire but this ain’t madden.

No. Big concerns at the top (as mentioned above), but better at the bottom yes. No clue how that translates to production cause Diggs was part of the reason why the bottom had opportunity.

I have it as Coleman > Davis (currently) Samuel << Diggs Hollins > Sherfield (not sure why you say equal when Hollins has produced as receiver) Shakir > Harty (that replacement happened last year) stacking the box may not work with a good screen game that Shakir, Coleman, and Samuel have all demonstrated and ability towards. I also think teams have enough respect for Allen and his yolo style that they will not stack the box too much.

I share your concern about the top end of our WR room, but thought WAS had a good WR corp last year with McLaurin, Samuel, Dotson (their QB play was so bad) and he was WR2 there. He was there most successful WR and had the best catch %.

Why would take taron Johnson off the field on obvious passing downs?

Considering he didn’t get more than 6 targets in any game having a few 100 yard games is pretty good. Would also note he had a big clutch factor with big time TDs. If DCs wanna throw more coverage his way then yes they will do well against him while losing against other WRs. I think it’s gonna be hard to game plan against us cause we have pretty good man separators in Kincaid Samuel shakir that can all also work against zone. I think 800 yards on 50% more targets. So slightly less efficient but still very efficient. Do you think it’ll be less than that? Expanding on this I think 2020 was Josh’s best year and while we had the emergence of diggs we also spread the ball around a lot. I think we tied the record for number of players with a receiving TD. I’m very excited if that can be replicated Would add that Coleman in the screen game, which Brady called twice as often as Dorsey, is gonna be a big piece. Dude can block and get up field quick.

Known but good info. Where is the SoS in the article?

Great exercise, and is tricky. Some of these things are tough cause they are intertwined or may not the responsibility of the current GM. For example is the Marcel Dareus dead cap a negative on Beane when it was Whaley that signed him (this is less of a problem for Beane cause of the sample size but could be an issue for other GMs that youre comparing Beane too). Pro Bowls are a bit tricky cause they are so perception based. Starts also gets weird cause a GM in a rebuild will get a boost by starting late draft picks that arent really good. I do really like the idea of % non-rookies that see the end of their contract (if signed by current GM). Rather than starts per draft pick you could also do rookies that see end of contract (though you may need to normalize by round somehow). I think team success is pretty good metric. Ultimately, the job is a resource allocation position and you are on the right path in thinking about resources (draft and FA), but the metrics are a bit tricky. I really like this discussion youve started.