YattaOkasan

I think of like GB a lot. Noone over 800 yards but still 4200 passing yards. If you we could get that production combined with the rushing yards of Cook (1k), Davis (400), Josh (400); its a top 10 offense. But a lot of this is easier said than done so I dont necessarily count on it.

Agree on best overall roster, but Im not sure about Rodgers even if healthy. Its been two seasons since weve seen great play from him. And at his age return to form doesnt seem too likely.

I don’t expect anything of those three. I only mention hamler cause we keep forgetting he’s on the team. That’s not a ringing endorsement about what I expect of him (could he figure it out sure but I don’t think the bills have much stock in it). As we said earlier, it’s a bunch of unknowns. Feels as if they have to get 4+ players above 600 yards to make this thing work cause Im inclined to agree if your sentiment is that there’s not a 1k receiver on the team. So then the question is the likelihood of achieving that. And even though it’s rare to achieve, I feel pretty good that Kincaid, shakir and Samuel can get there. Question is does cook or Coleman get there. If both do then would you agree this offense would be seriously cooking? I’m not sure any offense has ever had 5+ players with >600 receiving yards. So yeah those other 3 players don’t matter to me. We’re missing top end talent but we have depth (again not those three players that I don’t expect anything from). Can we use that depth to do something rare? I think the talent is there to sling it for 600 yards to 4 players. Question is if we can do it.

Beasley entering year 8 diggs entering year 6 Brown entering year 6 these players had a LOT of history and they still proved they had more to show. what is your data to say playing with Allen doesn’t give a bump? correct they didn’t make big investments for the most part. However Samuel very much was an investment. None of those players were considered world beaters when we signed them and we got good production out of them.

I think its fair to be concerned that what we lost (5th year option) wasnt worth the gain (move up from 200 to 141). Since we got Van Pran at 141 and I dont think he wouldve been available at 200 Im ok with it. Though arguement could be that get Van Pran with 144 and then the cost of staying at 32 is a 2025 4th round pick (again im good trading out of 1st round).

Appreciate the thought about why you didnt add. For the glass half empty, we are doing something new (not just for us but the league in some ways). There have been a handful of times when 4 players got 600+ receiving yards on the same team. Yet there was some strong thought we would do that (sorta by necessity, which not a great place to be). But I allow myself to be hopeful cause in 2020 we tied (shouldve been sole owners if not for a Taiwan Jones drop) of the number of unique players with a receiving TD. Counter to that is what was a Daboll offense. Im sorta surprised were not having the same conversations about the defense too where we seem to be shifting towards leaning on our pass rush rather than our coverage in years past.

Agree it comes down to likelihoods, but I would say we dont have a ton of data on how likely many of these things are. There would be points and counter points that are both unknown (how much squatting in the middle vs allens arm scaring them is a good example). To your last point about getting more WR production than projected I think there is pretty significant data to say that will happen. Beasley, Brown, Diggs all had career years and outproduced expectations after their move. If I could guess your counter point (and its one of those unknowns), they are coming in with low expectations so beating those doesnt necessarily mean we have a good offense (even though we expect to out perform those expectations). God Hamler flying so far under the radar. Don't know what to make of him, but if hes over injuries he brings supreme speed and playmaking ability. Your line about options drafted in the first two rounds reminded me of him and he wasnt even on your list.

It’s all an interesting discussion. On the topic of defenders squatting in the middle. I think it should be a concern. But also think we do have enough juice on the outside particularly with Allen’s arm to counter that. Shakir isn’t great on the outside but with Allen’s arm they got Sneeds first (only?) TD allowed of the season. The fun of this season is we haven’t really seen them in the past do the things they must to be successful this year. Part of that is personnel and scheme but it should def still raise concern.

Yeah I def don’t rule it out. Was wondering who you would cut and the answer is solomon. It’s not unreasonable but I think unlikely at least for the initial 53. Beane has had all his 5th rounders make the roster their first year (even Joseph and Fromm I believe). I could see toohill also getting the Ferguson treatment. I think he’s acquired enough seasons to be a vet. So maybe solomon gets the IR (happened to 5th round shorter among others) then toohill gets a little paycheck to grill in the parking lot

Thats fair. Would mention that 5th round is bit of an investment for a player that wont make the team (I'm seeing 75% of 5th rounders make the roster link). I would also think Toohill is easier to stash on the PS. Agree Toohill is high effort/non stop motor, but I am much more interested in keeping the rights to solomon than keeping toohill.

They arent mentioning him cause of smoot I think. Do you think they keep 6 DE? If not who do you cut from Groot, AJ, Von, Smoot, Solomon. Most people have Smoot over Toohill. Toohill got a good number of sacks last year (5) but it was in a similar efficiency (5 sacks on ~450 snaps) as Smoot in 2022 (year he sustained ankle injury). Smoot had more pressures so was more disruptive. If smoot can return to that form after being another year removed from the achilles I think he is the better player. Would also note that Washington shipped off like all their DE and didnt retain Toohill (or play him the final game of the season, indicating they wanted to look at other players unless I missed an injury). That doesnt inspire a lot of confidence in him as a player either.

Bills DEs feel very strong side/weak side right now. Strong side is Rousseau with smoot as back up and weak side is AJ/Von split with Javon also getting in but even less early downs. strong/weak side may not be to the TE so much as passing strength because you want taron with Rousseau ahead of him on the passing strength. I ain’t got the time but I wonder how much taron lined up on groot or Shaqs side on early downs. Obvious passing and run downs wouldn’t need this approach as much imo.

Correct he did. I got the over. Rousseau had 8 in 2022 and was looking better last year before he fractured his foot so my floor is 8 for him. Epenesa has been consistent 6+ and looked great before injury. Combined with more snaps i have 8 as a floor for him. Then like most peeps the question is what does Von have left. I think he gets some form back to hit the first of his incentives (4 sacks) which will be a push. All this assumes health for 3 players that have missed games because of injuries the last 3 seasons. Everyone gets banged up a bit but DL health has been rough at the most critical times (maybe front 7 considering LB last year).

It costs 3 million just to try something else. If you’re upset about something focus on the contract. We sorta committed ourselves to him being the kicker when they offered the extension. I don’t remember a ton of people being super grumpy at it either. At this point I don’t know that there’s a lot to be done. Know who to replace him if he’s super terrible it otherwise gotta roll the dice with him.

We have so much good young OL depth. I could easily see a trade for Clapp or another vet if the youngins are ready to go

No talk of contract on this QoD yet. Dude costs 3 mil + to cut this year. And that’s not considering his replacement. I think they sorta have to roll with him but if he sucks cut him mid season. Would like to see browning be punter and kickoff as browning was holder the day Bass went 5/5 iirc. If browning is also kickoff (he did this in college at SDSU where he broke punt gods punt records and coverage is something punters have to do), then bass can just focus on placekicking and get back to form.

Top 5 in % pressures responsible to O line. 78% iirc from locked on pod last week. I think blitzes are a pretty good reason for both of those.

Yeah great point. I think it’s probably functional strength that I’m getting at. He doesn’t seem to be as much of a people mover. And could be grading on a curve against Torrence who is very much a people mover. Thanks for the context and let me know your thoughts on functional strength. It’s probably worth some film breakdown but who has time for that.

Seems straight forward agreed. Samuel is line to get a lot of targets if he doesnt get injured and rest of the UFA class doesnt move the needle much.

Joe Marino has hammered the point that the move on from Morse to McGovern was a choice. Not something they had to do necessarily. The interview was part of that logic, so i agree hes gonna feel good at center. Interested to see what they do at guard cause McGovern and Morse are both smaller and that was maybe the only weakness running the ball. If Edwards or Collins can help move DL with McGovern as part of combo blocks were gonna be so deadly in the run game. Cook, Ray, Josh, Samuel, any other gadget player. I think the idea is to force teams to put 7 in the box against us.

As @Doc Brown mentioned we have plenty more numbers than you indicate. I would also say having Elam and Bishop as your back up in case of injury or if the new Mike Edmunds (only starter that hasnt been a starter with us before). The original question was about what would you spend the cap on. You would try to get an impact player at CB or Safety is what youre saying or do you just want another body (again I agree with Doc we have those bodies and they are familiar with the system)

I think Bernard already played at a pro bowl level. More picks, recoveries, sacks, tackles, and better coverage rating than JOK (JOK beats him in FF 1v0, TFL 20v10, PBU 6v5). Similar story with Demario Davis, more recoveries, tackles, picks, PBUs, and better coverage grade (rating of 80 is really incredible) with Demario having more FF (1v0 again), TFL (12v10) and same sacks (6.5). Bernard also covers further down field than either player. Don't get me started on Bobby Wagner who only had more tackles and TFL (11v10) that were better. Would argue he played similar to Patrick Queen too. Basically I'm saying you story line should be does Bernard take the leap to ALL-PRO LB cause he pretty clearly has the stats to be in the PB but not the name recognition.

Im very inclined to agree with this. I also see a plan at many spots, but we wont know if its working out until a bit of the season is played. I think more likely we dont do anything now and then make a trade during the season to shore up one of the weak spots for a playoff run (trade for sutton if broncos are struggling this year for example, josh uche if the patriots starting making big mistakes with new leadership)

Bernard - Extend as hell never be cheaper. Really stepped up and settled the defense with Milano out. 4 years 36.5 million to make him just inside the top 10. For the others I took stabs here but there are better cap folks on this site Josh Allen - extend to make the cap hit better. give him whatever he wants (4 years 230 mil if pressed) cause hes worth it Cook - let it play out cause paying RBs is not a great idea (will admit he can be the exception for a few reasons) Spencer Brown - Extend NOW for 3 years 48 million with 24ish guaranteed cause thats the market for RT (this a not top 10 contract) Groot - Extend to lower the 5th year option number. 3 years 42 mil (tick above 5th year option). Contract is about 20th and money wouldnt really kick in until von is off hte books Knox - play out. if you think hes got more in tank extend for 2 years 18 mil Shakir - play out. they are starting to show an ability at finding late round receiver talent (Davis, Hodgins) I could see brown and groot not accepting these contracts and wanting to bet on themselves. Would also say the team has shown us the off the field stuff matters a lot to them so its very difficult to do this without knowing how they are dealing with injuries or changes to their role

Still worried a bit about boundary WR. I understand the plan but there is a high enough chance that Coleman needs a season to get it sorted; Claypool is what hes shown the last two years; Hollins is super efficient with his opportunities that I think we could use an outside WR. We are pretty well stocked at all positions (pretty surprising considering our cap position heading into the offseason) but at the premium positions of Edge (my primary focus cause the plan doesnt feel as good) and WR they are missing elite top end talent so I think adding more makes sense.