maryland-bills-fan

James Kenneth Dunaway Part of a defensive line that held opposing runners without a rushing touchdown for a pro football record seventeen consecutive games in the 1964 and 1965 AFL seasons.

Notice in that article that there are a lot of teams that you can make a good case for also looking to move up and get a QB. Remember that the teams that hold the highest picks are not in the business of doing the Buffalo Bills favors. They will sell to the highest bidder. In the article, they make the reasonable suggestion that there might be ten teams drafting ahead of us who could use a QB as much or more than we do. The "money" that you spend to move up is almost always draft picks. Let's use the NFL draft value chart so see how much MORE some other bidders have to spend by using their first round draft pick compared to our {1st #24}. What I am getting at is what EXTRA we would have to spend to just meet their opening bid- not the total cost. Regardless of the original plan, our success this year does not put us in a good place for moving up. Other bidder {1st # X} difference in points What extra change we would compared to {1st #22} have to spend just to match Jets.................. #6 820 {1st ~ #21} Fish...................#11 472 {2nd #11} Skins.................#13 370 {2nd #21} Ravens #16 220 {3rd #10} Do you really want to weaken the Bills compared to those other teams by this much extra? Realize that our later round picks makes this type of picture increasingly bad, as their value falls faster.

No, there is not "a reason" for their availability. You probably mean "a reason", to mean that they are all poor QB's. There are many other "reasons", why a veteran QB is available. [1] They may be coming from a poor team and are being gotten rid of to save the face of the owner/management team [2] They may be coming from a poor team and are looking to get the hell out of Dodge (Cousins anyone?) [3] They might not be a good skill fit for the coaching staff- sort of like a 3-4 linebacker in a 4-3 scheme (TT anyone?) [4] They might be blocked by a superior QB and want to start and get big bucks elsewhere (Garappolo?) By the way, have you ever noticed how really good teams can easily trade away a backup for a good return- and that guy just looks mediocre when he plays with a mediocre team? [5] They might be in a situation where the team somehow lucked into two top notch guys (Kemp/Lamonica?) [6] Some guys just take a while to "get it". It might be a mental or maturity thing. I do not know enough about the veterans available to peg any of them. I could see some of them working out okay for the Bills to give time for a lower draft pick to develop. It is easier to project an offensive lineman from college to pros than a QB. For QB's it is about a 30% hit rate. For, say, offensive linemen, it is a 83.2% hit rate.

Does anybody remember the "comeback"game with Reich playing QB? ........... Three things are needed for a QB to be successful. #1 He has to be good #2 He has to have a good supporting cast. #3 He has to have a coach & system that fits his abilities. Predicting if a college QB is good (for the pros) is partly some physical things that can be measured but is hard to evaluate because the quality of his teammates, coaches and opposition are uneven, hard to compare and difficult to project to the different pro level. For a veteran pro player (FA or trade) much of this uncertainty is eliminated- you can see how he did against a defensive backfield with all good players. From college play, he played in many games where there were no pro-quality CB/S to throw against. ........ If this was so easy, then why are about 2/3 of all first round QB's essentially busts or career backups? The supporting cast is really as important as the QB himself. One aspect that our posters seem to ignore is that many good QB's never make it because the system usually puts them on bad teams. There are two main ways to get into this situation. (1) 0-16 teams are bad, and they draft first. Superman as QB is not going to help much. (2) Teams can also make themselves "bad" by giving up too many draft picks for the "savior" QB. That starves the QB of a supporting cast. ....... In both these situations, you might have a good QB, but he looks bad and may regress. He winds up unable to get into his receiver progression because he us running for his life. When the 1st down running play gets blown up in the backfield, he has too many 2nd and 14 situations. If there is no deep threat, the play-action pass is not respected and also the safety and linebackers plug holes for running plays. He is playing from behind in the score and tries risky plays. ........ There are a lot of highly drafted QB's (looked great in college) who might be good as pro's but have been stuck in bad situations. #3 The coach and the system have to match the QB's abilities and the abilities of the team. (right now TT's skill set is not where those things are probably going with the Bills). I just can not see selling off 5 or so first and second round pick to take a crap shoot on a college QB and then sticking him on an inferior team.

heh? From where the Bills are drafting (and have been drafting for the last decade- the middle third of the first round), it would take basically take about 2.5 years of first and second round picks to get a shot at a top franchise QB. Something like 2 or 3 first round picks and 3 or 2 second round picks. That is 5 picks at positions where the "bust rate" is much lower- so maybe 4 sure starters are exchanged for a ? 50% chance at a superior QB. IMO that is too much to pay. 50% x 2 = (hope) 100% to get a very good QB, who is than playing WITHOUT 10 or so better supporting players? ??? How does that 1 QB give you a competitive roster? It give you a star QB that nobody will ever see, because he will spend his time flat on his back.

I saw we picked up Aaron Green from the Cowboys practice squad on Tuesday. https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/01/nfl-practice-squad-updates-1218 http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706718-aaron-jones-nfl-draft-2017-scouting-report-for-green-bay-packers-pick

That second 1st rounder is where you draft the all pro offensive guard who nails down the position for a decade. Or you might use the 8th pick to get somebody like Shane Conlan. Or draft a Darryl Talley 11th in the second round. ............... Notice that using high picks on the not-flashy positions gets you a winning team?

Why not think of this draft as the top five 2018 QB's PLUS the top 6 available veterans who have already proven that they can take a snap under center AND win games in the NFL: Cousins, Manning, Bridgewater, Smith, Keenum and Bradford? Use one of those four top two round draft picks on a defensive tackle......AND use the other 3 for big uglies on the offensive line who put a hand in the dirt. Which is better? (NEW baby Toy & current ok o-line) or (NEW older Toy with much improved o-line) ? Might that be a viable plan, rather than a 21 year old kid who has a 2/3 chance of flaming out? I think that TT 's skill set is not really a good fit for the coaches and our players. (risking a throw far down field would let Shady run an extra 10 yards before meeting a safety). I wonder if one of those vet's film, shows our coaches just what they want.

Can I play craps with you sometime?

Something to keep in mind. If all the teams before us in the draft go crazy and draft 20 QB's before our pick....... don't jump off of a tall building but think of all the excellent non-QB's that we then have to chose from.

Are you sure about that? My impression is that the "plan" was to first improve the overall quality of the team by getting a lot of draft picks in the top 3 rounds. So we traded away some veteran and good quality Bills to pick up younger players who would mature and reach their peak together. I don't recall that the trading back was mean to supply ammunition for a swoop up for a QB. Did I miss something that you can quote?

If it was a sure thing, yes. BUT only about a third of 1st round QB's ever work out (e.g. make it to the playoffs one time).

This example would work for me. https://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2014/4/17/5623840/nfl-draft-saints-ricky-williams-mike-ditka-trade

Well how much use are the Iggles going to get out of Wentz this postseason? They did "win the lottery" by the fact that he looks like a real good player from his performance this year. But there are several ways to lose when you put a lot of valuable eggs in one basket. ACL being one. An EJM being another. They gave up 3 top 100 picks in 2016, a 1st rounder in 2017 and a 2nd rounder in 2018- 5 potentially good players. Overall they did win that one. You draft QB's. You draft RB's and CB's and many other positions. Your are welcome.

?? A lot of people thought that Maneul was not a good choice at the time.

No, I am thinking that we should stay away from trying to move up for a QB. We might draft one when we think is of real cost-effective value falls to us in the late 1st or the 2nd/3rd round. Right now there will be a bunch of experienced FA QB's looking for work, and one might just fit well here. TT doesn't seem to be a fit here and the head coach (remember his starting Peterson) doesn't seem to think so as well.

I'm not sure about that. I though the roster bonus was paid IF he makes the roster. Wikpedia says:

http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2015/04/success_for_quarterbacks_picke.html So, saying it another way, you have to draft THREE (high?) 1st rounders to get somebody who will get into the playoffs.............and only 13% of the first rounders will be in the top half of the league in passing. Realize that those successful QB's were mostly picked in the top 5 slots. We are not drafting in the one->5 slot because we are not that bad. So we would have to repeatedly bundle up something like two first rounders and a second to get a shot at a top 5 draft pick slot. Therefore you are not just talking about spending three 1st round picks. Maybe something like five 1st round and five 2nd round picks to get to pick three times in the top 5. Is it worth 8 to 10 starters for that? That is nearly an entire offense or defense. It is one hell of an offensive line and linebacker crew...... ??

We have TT under contract for one more year. His cost is somewhere around $18 million. There are many FA QB's available in 2018. Most Bills fans think the TT days are over and we will be moving on in some fashion. What could we get in a trade for TT? My guess is a 3rd round pick in 2019.

A simple "Holy ****!!" was sufficient.

You didn't hear about how the Niagara Gorge was going to get block by ice and overflow next fall? https://www.niagarafallslive.com/niagara_gorge_discovery_center.htm

So, we play the entire AFC EAST ...................the entire NFC NORTH .................................the #1, #2 & #4 teams in the AFC SOUTH .................................the #2 team in the AFC NORTH We play the "average" of a conference for 12 of our games. We play the #2 team in 4 of our games. (moot is that Aaron Rogers will be back for GB next year) Not a big favor, in my opinion, because I think we overachieved this year.

Date TBA Chicago Bears New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA Detroit Lions New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA Jacksonville Jaguars New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA Miami Dolphins New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA New England Patriots New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA New York Jets New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA Tennessee Titans New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA Los Angeles Chargers New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at Green Bay Packers Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at Houston Texans NRG Stadium, Houston, TX Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at Indianapolis Colts Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at Miami Dolphins Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at Minnesota Vikings U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at New England Patriots Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at New York Jets MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ Time TBA TV TBA Date TBA at Baltimore Ravens M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD Time TBA TV TBA http://www.fbschedules.com/nfl-18/2018-buffalo-bills-football-schedule.php

There are a slew of QB's available in free agency, but the really worthwhile ones will be retained or have some warts. One plan would be to keep TT on a 2 year contract but make him available for the right price. If we could get two 2nd round picks about the middle of the round, we could trade him and pick up a replacement veteran for the short time. The we would draft a 2nd round or lower 1st round prospect this year and take our crap shoot there. First round QB picks are not a sure thing. ..."http://www.espn.com/nfldraft/columnist?id=1540370. There are 2 "good things" about this approach. First, we get something good back for TT, because somebody might overpay for the shiny toy that got the Bills into the playoffs or even deep into the playoffs. If we are stuck with him for two years, well he is our veteran stopgap. Second, we hold on to those 3 extra top 64 picks that people might want to spend on moving up to the top 5 or 10 spots to get a QB. I would rather draft a top OT and two superior OG's with those picks. Hell, I might look like a good QB behind a great offensive line.

There are a bunch of okay fill-in QB's available this coming year. I think the plan should be to pick up a stop-gap player to fill in for a year and go with a 2nd round pick for a QB-in-training. We need another year of rebuilding before looking at a SB type run. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21832292/2018-nfl-quarterback-dominoes-players-change-teams-offseason-why