maryland-bills-fan

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/6/28/15880748/success-rates-of-drafted-quarterbacks A good read. Note the following table, where "success" means they started for multiple years: QB's drafted 1990-2016 pick success % 1-16 81% 17-32 65% 2nd round 48% 3rd round 25% 4th round 13% 5th round 6% 6th round 16% 7th round 6% What jumps out at me is that 1st round draft picks are not a sure thing (a two year starter, might have accomplished a 4-12 and 4-12 record on a terrible team with no support- but be counted as "a success") Lets compare the strange but useful draft value chart with QB success and how efficient and costly it is to draft a "success". For draft value I've chosen the middle of the top 16 & bottom 16 of the first round and then middle of the 2nd, 3rd,4th round pick "success" draft value 100x success/draft value ==================================================== 1-16 (#8) 81% 1403 5.77 17-32(#24) 65% 740 8.78 2nd rd 48% 420 11.4 3rd rd 25% 190 13.2 4th rd 13% 70 18.6 Yes you do have a much better shot at getting a success in the first round. But the 2nd round is not too shabby either. There is a limit as to how many QB's you can have on the roster and develop. There is a limit to how much playing time is available in practice and preseason. BUT, you could draft in the 3rd round, three years in a row and have about the same success as having spent a ~ #8 pick. The cost? 3x190= 570 points compared to 1403. Those surplus points could be used to get 3-4 good starters at other positions. " Moving up" in the draft is actually a lot more expensive than just a draft point swap. A hint from life: if you are begging to make a deal, the seller raises his price a lot and you pay more. Moving into the top 5 (where the top QB's are likely to go this year) is a LOT more expensive- average cost is 2260. Or the same as the "cost" of FIVE middle of the second round players. OUCH. A complete offensive line.

I was at the rockpile when Kemp was throwing the ball....................Let's see. Tom Brady was selected with pick #199, a compensatory pick, in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft.......................... There are 21 other people on the field other than a QB- you seem to forget.

That would be true if the rest of the team was very good and the only thing stopping us was a poor QB.

[1] We have a number of holes on the team and the QB will not matter if they other team runs the ball down our throats or stops the QB and RB in the backfield. We desperately need another DT and center. We badly need a linebacker, offensive lineman and wide receiver. It does not make sense to give up 4-5 picks in the first two rounds of this year and next to take a crapshoot at a QB. Wouldn't it be dumb to have all these needs as open wounds, while trying to break in a rookie QB? How many years from now (actually 2-4) would it be before we filled these holes and others that would open up in the meantime? Big uglies stay a while and are relatively cheap. [2] There are 4-5 shiny new toy QB's available. I don't want to trade up to get one of them. There are also 3-5 fair quality experienced FA or near FA QB's available this year. These guys have experience and a track record- any one of them may bloom if they are surrounded by a good situation. I would rather take one of them and give them 6 quality supporting cast people (this year and next), THAN have a hit-or-miss rookie and a weak supporting cast. [3] The large number of shiny rookie QB's and available former-first-round veterans also means that some rookie QB's who look second tier (this year) are going to be available in the 3rd round. We might be able to get some good guy this year, who in other years might be a fringe 1st round/early 2nd round guy. Seems like a deal to me. [4] Please don't use the patriots as a comparison. Brady is from another planet and Bellycheck somehow always finds near-all-pro's from the waiver wire. You can't learn anything by trying to match their magic.

Dude, Guess what? A QB can also leave after his initial contract. That is pretty likely if you give up 3-4 top 40 players to get him.

This year many teams want a rookie QB and we are way down at 21 & 22. There is no magic bullet in the NFL. A great QB with no lines and you lose. A great team with an okay QB and you can compete for a playoff spot. We have holes on our offensive line and front 7. That and a rookie QB is not a winning recipe. If the rookie QB doesn't make it, then you have 3 more years of at-best, a 8-8 record. Not worth the risk. ...... Also there are as many good QB with some NFL track record and rave pre-draft (their rookie draft) reviews. They will cost no or few-low draft picks and we can wait until next year. My view: Pick up a veteran QB to hold the fort and draft two big uglies for the lines (a defensive tackle and a center), a linebacker and a BPA with the first four picks. What would you choices be for these picks?

The linebackers were Stratton, Harry Jacobson and Patton. Corners Byrd and Edgerson. Safeties Saimes and I-forget. My future wife worked at Aetna Insurance downtown and Harry sold life insurance over the summer. All the secretaries was in awe of him. Still have a signed autograph of him and a 1940 banner with the standing buffalo.

the patriots 15 man defense is hard to beat

I saw referees acting as Patriot cheerleaders. I saw holding by the Pats. I saw Chung holding onto a WR shirt near the end of the game that wound up with a 3 and out. I didn't see pass interference that the refs did. I think the NFL WANTS their TV ratings for the SB and WANTS the pats in it, because of the resentment about the disrespecting the star spangeled banner. NOPE. not watching One penalty on the Pats?

TT and Alex Smith are about the same in regards to their availability. Both teams have some hope of getting a low draft choice for them (3- 5 ). Nobody will give that up for them because they will be available as UFA. Along with 3-5 other similar quality guys. Don't trade for Smith.

Actually there are a lot of lower round "all-speed- no route smart" players available in the lower rounds. You can pick them up as non-drafted free agents and stretch the field once in a while. Also, look for small college players including QB's.

It is not that bad. A few years ago I worked out the top dozen trades and it was pretty close.

Is he better than TT? If he is the same and a pocket passes, he would look more like where the coaches want to go.

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-3/Bills-All-Time-draft-memories-Billy-Shaw/cd624aaf-a283-4a0b-bf18-316b898c8119

Hey, he made a 1st down running and threw a pass and had it caught. what is your problem????

We had a lot of veterans make their absolute best last gasp attempt this year and they got into the playoffs. Bully for them, but they are on the downhill of their career or even retiring. The rebuild started last year. We were lucky last year. Next year we will be lucky to make the playoffs. Then the future looks better.

He got hit in the head a number of times and left the game. Is he okay? I know most think that he has ceiling out and is not the future for the Bills, but he was a good player, a good team player and never bad-mouthed our town. Let's show a little love for him !!

I'll let everyone in on a secret. It is called "big uglies". This draft, we go in big for defensive linemen and linebackers, and then offensive linemen. We take one QB in the first two rounds and then BPA after that. .... Repeat next year. .......The first thing in football is.... can you push the other fellow back and either keep him from getting around you- or get around him. If we can do this with our front 7 on defense and front 6 on offense, then everything else opens up. Get the cheap, essential guys early. They are cheap and last a long time. Then go after the smaller talent guys. It is not rocket science. You don't put a supercharger on a pinto.

You have to have enough repetitions to develop and evaluate a QB. We will have a new veteran starter (or TT) to get familiar with the team and there is not enough plays on the practice field or preseason games to work on two new QV's.

Now who would take that deal? Did anyone notice that we lost today's game because their defensive line overpowered our offensive line.

I agree up to a point. Out of the 4-8 veteran QB's that are available, there might be 2-3 who are pretty good. We know TT has reached his ceiling. Why not roll the dice on a young QB who might develop into a good player, while the rookie QB gets some pro experience?

Go suck an egg.

Big uglies. Big Uglies. BIG UGLIES. BIG UGLIES !!! Bumper sticker: My kid can beat the snot out of your middle school honor student.

My wife says that it is my day to wash the dishes..........

Football was not invented to be played in places where people can wear flip-flops 12 months a year.