maryland-bills-fan

First year: 64% chance. 2nd year 87% 3rd year 95.3%. . So on average, 1.5 tries is close enough for government work. Really do you have to be so insulting in you tone? Don't you think it is childish to quibble about whether to round up or not round up the numbers. Gessh !

I disagree. Look at the student T test. We have a small sample size, a murky test criteria (what is the deviation from the mean) and to talk about a 100% confidence level that there is a statistical difference between the means is just silly. I'm reminded of Mark Twain. " there are liars, there are damn liars and there are statistics". Ask questions about when the sample size is 2 to 10. Opps.

Whatever the Bills do, I am going to turn around, say its the best thing since sliced bread and defend it to the death. Definition of a homer. Been doing this for 50 years and haven't learned yet. No super bowl wins either. sigh..........

A blind man walked into a bar one night. One of the patrons at the bar saw him and helped him get to a barstool and get a drink. After a few minutes, the blind man leaned over to his new friend and said, "I just heard the world's best blonde joke. Would you like to hear it?" The other man said, "Friend, before you say another word, there's something you need to know." "What's that?" the blind man asked. "There are five people besides you in this bar. The bartender is blonde. The boucer is blonde. There are two women sitting at the end of the bar. One is an off-duty police officer, and the other is a Marine Corps gunnery sergeant, and they're both blond. I'm six-foot-four, two hundred and sixty pounds, and I've got a third degree black belt in karate, and I'm blonde. "So," the man concluded, "Are you sure you really want to tell that joke?" The blind man thought about it for a minute and said, "No, not if I'm going to have to explain it five times."

Remember that 20% bust rate for drafting a top 3 draft pick QB. You can sell the farm and STILL not get your saviour- and then you don't have the farm (missed players) either.

That's one thought. I think you didn't check on when they were picking. year what who round- overall 2013 OT Fisher pick 1- #1 2014 LB Ford pick 1- #23 2015 CB peters pick 1 #18 2016 DT Jones pick 2 #-37 2017 QB Mahone pick 1 #10 If you notice, the LB, CB and DT picks were all BELOW the bottom half of the 1st round. You don't get rare RB or QB or WR highly skill, possible HoF guys down that low.

Well, the "top 3" was chosen by a poster on a different board who did a pretty good original post that I stole the info from. [ https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs ] He went from the '83 draft on. Should it have been the top two picks, or the top five picks-? I don't know- if you think there is a sensible cut-off, then you can make a case for it. Note that 1->3 =7800 and the next 5 ( 4->8) = 8000 for what it is worth. So there is a break in the "price Do you think that there is ONE and ACCURATE evaluation that the pros use? I don't think so. The pros do know more and spend more time and energy than my couple of hours. We all got free evaluations and views from all the "experts", but at the end of the day, they are throwing darts just like I am. By the way, stealing from that post again, here is a list of failures from the groupings top 3 pick failures: " 7 out of the 33, or 21.2%, are "Red". Jamarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf and Rick Mirer" rest of 1st round failures: " 23 out of 45 - 51.1% - of the QBs taken in the 1st round outside the top were "Red" label. Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Tim Tebow, Josh Freeman, Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey, Cade McNown, Jim Druckenmiller, David Klingler, Dan McGwire, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Kelly Stouffer, Chuck Long, Todd Blackledge. " What? No slide rule?

"If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favourable reference to the devil in the House of Commons." Winston Churchill They might consider that they were screwing us rather than helping us.

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-2017-ranking-all-32-starting-running-backs-052817 is one source that lists Hyde as the 20th best starting RB. Barkley looks like a once-a-decade guy. If the Browns don't start off with Barkley, we should be happy because the Giants won't let him get past them and that means one less QB off the table.

I get greedy when I see the guys we could draft this year with 6 picks in the first three rounds........

Well if it was only another LB or WR on the roster, I would absolutely agree. You can get those from the non-drafted college graduates. But that is not the case. We are talking about 3-5 players drafted in the first 3 rounds, which are most often starting players.

Here is what I think is going to happen in the draft and what they Bills might do. PICK 1 The Browns take Barkley. He is the best in the draft and will not keep. They get their QB later. PICK 2 The Giants take Darhold. They also need a QB and have a history of being lead by great QB's. The Bills can't outbid the Giants for the Giants pick PICK 3 The Colts will do one of three things. The first is to take Chubb as the best player and needed DE. The second is to take a trade up for the spot with somebody other than the Bills. The third is to trade spots with the Bills. It would take both our first round picks and our last 3rd round picks. This is the most likely trade we might make. If they take Chubb, then the rest of this posting continues. PICK 4 The Browns get their QB. either Allen or Rosen. PICK 5 The Broncos are owned by a former QB. But they just got Keenum. They will take a guard or LB and get a QB in the 2nd round. PICK 6 The Jets need a better QB and will take Rosen, Allen or Mayfield. Unless the Bills like the 3rd QB in the draft who is available here and do a trade up with an AFC foe. To move from #12 to #6 will also cost a second round pick (#21, 53rd overall) and some "change" of 30 points (swap 5th for 6th round pick). This would give the Bills the 3rd QB in the draft. It would give the Jets an extra draft pick. PICK 7, 8, 9, 10 Tampa Bay, Chicago Bears, San Fran, Oakland may not be drafting a QB. Any of them might do a trade down and let somebody else draft a QB ahead of the Bills. Maybe some people shouldn't go outside today because of meteors and lightning strikes. PICK 11 The Fish have a lot of needs. They just got rid of Suh & Timmons, so a DT and LB are needed. They need a tight end and cornerback. They just gave a 3 year $60 million contract to Tannenhill. They might take a QB just to thumb the nose at the Bills, or more likely they will go later round for a development guy. They might take a trade up from somebody who is enambered in one of th top 4 QB's and want to beat the Bills there. Maybe we could trade up with them (low 3rd or 4th) to swap places when were are blackmailed. PICK 12 The Bills may have traded up to PICK 3 or PICK 6 . The Bills might take the 4th or 5th QB in this spot, if they stay here and are okay with the player. The Bills might also trade down and pick any one of the 3-5 (what looks like) 2nd tier QB's in the second round and have two 1st round, two second round and two third round picks (6 total) to get a offensive line and linebackers and wide receivers. My handicapping: 30% trade up to PICK 3,,,,, 30% trade up to PICK 6 ,,,,15% trade up to PICK11,,,,,20% stay at PICK 12,,,,,,,5% trade down from PICK 12.

{plan A} The Bills have picks #12, #22, ,,,, #53, #56,,,, #65 & # 96 in the first 3 rounds. If they use #12 to draft a QB, then they have 5 good picks to get LB, WR, OL. {plan B} If they use #12, #22......#56,,,,,#65 to move up in a trade with the Giants, they draft a QB with #2 and have 3 good picks to get LB, WR and OL. {plan A} picks ........ #53 ..................#96. {plan B} picks #22, #53 #56 #65 #96 Which is going to give us a better team?

Do we know if McCarron himself didn't want a mulit-year contract? (2 years $10 to $16.5 million) It is also likely that he wanted a place where he would be the starter for the first year for sure in order to prove himself. Then he would be valuable bait to be traded somewhere either the 2nd year as a starter (with a new longer, better paid contract) OR be a free agent after two years and cash in big-time. ?? We don't know if the Bills or McCarron wanted his contract to end after the 2nd year.

Deciding what is a successful QB and aligning that with their drafted position is a mushy piece of work. I've tried that myself but found a better one here: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/12/17108340/nfl-scouts-are-generally-correct-on-draft-qbs He compares the first three picks with the rest of the first round and with the 2nd and 3rd round. GOLD is what you want. TOP 3 PICKS 64% GOLD 15% GREEN 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!! that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower} 1st round 33% GOLD 16% GREEN 51% RED..........................................{about half are BUSTS) 2nd and 3rd round 22% GOLD 13% GREEN 65% RED ============================ working from the OP data you can estimate/guesttimate the following ============================= How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 / %chance) top 3 ..............1.56 picks rest of 1st ......3.03 picks 2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks ========================================== and what is the draft-value cost for each GOLD success? pick..............# of tries................median DTV ............................"expected cost" = {# picks} X {DTV cost} top 3............. 1.56 picks............... 2600.................................... 4,056 rest of 1st..... 3.03 picks................ 875 ....................................2,651 2n3 & 3rd ......4.54 picks............... 265..................................... 1,203 It is expensive to go up to a top 3 pick- unless you are already there. AND even that is not a sure thing.

Steve Billieve Steve Billieve wrote <q> "You never know what will happen. Top 3 overall QBs have a much higher success rate than those late in the first or after. We've set the board to draft a QB high, which I guess is why this is a thread at all. Do we change the game plan now? </q> I don't know what the game plan was, although a lot of people think they do know. A good manager will have an up-front plan, but should be able to take advantage of changes in the situation. A military axiom is " No plan survives contact with the enemy". What IS the gameplan? Version #1 (most obvious): The Bills were planning on tanking in 2017, so they would draft high and get a franchsie QB in the 2018 draft. They screwed up and got pick #21 and have been trying to claw their way back to the top of the draft. They traded away good players (Watkins) to get more draft picks. They desperately traded away their (often) starting left offensive tackle to get a #12 so they might trade up to a top 3 (5?) pick. Alternate Version #2. The Bills worked in the off season to clear high salary cap, fairly good players in order to stockpile picks to rebuild the team. This includes a shot at a superior QB as well. They have been wheeling and dealing and the last guy out was the LOF to bump up one of the draft picks to #12. They will draft a QB with that draft and will get a good one. The rest of the draft (5 more picks in the first three rounds) will be used to restock the offensive line (center!), linebackers and wide receivers. They got McCarron as a two year stopgap, to give time for that rookie QB to develop. They don't have to draft an immediate NFL ready guy who will start in game 1. I think Alternate Version #2 is what they are going with. By, the way, if we go with plan Version #1, I will HATE seeing the 5 players we could have drafted beating the Bills in games for the next 7 years.

I wish predicting the best NFL QB was an exact science- but then it wouldn't be as much fun. Most people think that Darnold is the best prospect, but I can see somebody liking Rosen more. Here is a nice article from last week which gives a good description of each QB and their strengths and weaknesses. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/03/07/2018-nfl-draft-ranking-the-top-10-quarterbacks/?utm_term=.fad976ddda3c Nobody really knows how these will translate into the professional ranks. The skill and speed is another planet from even the best colleges. In college, the rookie QB only saw one or a few pro-calibre players every game and could avoid them. It is a different planet, when the weakest NFL DB is better that the best DB, that he was trying to beat in college. It is not an exact science. By the way, Rosen would be available at #12 if that Washington Compost article is right. They have them listed in the order Darrold,,,Mayfield,,,,Allen,,,,, Jackson,,,,,Rosen,,,,, Rudolph,,,,Falk,,,,,White,,,,,etc. The 5th QB should be there at our #12. It worked in college for a while until teams learned how to defend against it. You don't see it in college anymore. It was never run in the pro's. Defenders are too fast to the sideline in the pro's because they have the cream of the college players.

Gee, you can't understand that in a good QB year, you can still get the best QB your team has even seen at pick #14 or a Dan Marino near the bottom of the 1st round. ....... You can't understand that the Bills selected a tight end before a QB in that same draft?

I am thinking that all the shrill demands to move up to the top 3 are panic driven. We could just stay at #12 and see what comes to us. Moving to #2 would cost us at least: #12 and #22 in the first round , #21 in the second round (56 overall) #1 in the third round (65th overall) leaving us with #2 in the first round, overall #56 in the second round, and #96 overall in the third round. That is not very much to rebuild the offensive line, the wide receivers and the linebackers. If we stay at #12 we would have 5 picks in the first three rounds: overall #22, #53, #56, #54 & #96. That is enough to rebuild these positions. Realize that 5-6 high draft pick veteran QB;s have been picked up by other teams this year, so a few teams are probably not going to picking QB's before us. Even in the first round, QB's are still a crap-shoot. I think that it is a wiser strategy to be sure of restocking the weak positions and also taking a slightly less good shot at a QB.

I was the guy walking in with a 6 pack of Simon Pure in each hand. Do you remember that they actually let you openly bring in a couple of 6 packs to the game?

John Elway QB Stanford 1round 1(1st pick) Indianapolis Todd Blackledge QB Penn State 1round 7(7th pick) Kansas City Jim Kelly QB Miami 1round 14(14th pick) Buffalo Tony Eason QB Illinois 1round 15(15th pick) New England Ken O'Brien QB UC Davis 1round 24(24pick) NY Jets Dan Marino QB Pittsburgh 1round 27(27pick) Miami ....and with their second pick of the First Round, the Buffalo Bills select.... SEL # TEAM PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL 1 Baltimore Colts John Elway QB Stanford 2 Los Angeles Rams Eric Dickerson RB Southern Methodist 3 Seattle Seahawks Curt Warner RB Penn State 4 Denver Broncos Chris Hinton G Northwestern 5 San Diego Chargers Billy Ray Smith Jr. LB Arkansas 6 Chicago Bears Jim Covert T Pittsburgh 7 Kansas City Chiefs Todd Blackledge QB Penn State 8 Philadelphia Eagles Michael Haddix RB Mississippi State 9 Houston Oilers Bruce Matthews OG USC 10 New York Giants Terry Kinard DB Clemson 11 Green Bay Packers Tim Lewis DB Pittsburgh 12 Buffalo Bills Tony Hunter TE Notre Dame 13 Detroit Lions James Jones RB Florida 14 Buffalo Bills Jim Kelly QB Miami (Fla.) 15 New England Patriots Tony Eason QB Illinois 16 Atlanta Falcons Mike Pitts DT Alabama 17 St. Louis Cardinals Leonard Smith DB McNeese State 18 Chicago Bears Willie Gault WR Tennessee 19 Minnesota Vikings Joey Browner DB USC 20 San Diego Chargers Gary Anderson RB Arkansas 21 Pittsburgh Steelers Gabe Rivera NT Texas Tech 22 San Diego Chargers Gill Byrd DB San Jose State 23 Dallas Cowboys Jim Jeffcoat DE Arizona State 24 New York Jets Ken O'Brien QB California-Davis 25 Cincinnati Bengals Dave Rimington C Nebraska 26 Los Angeles Raiders Don Mosebar C USC 27 Miami Dolphins Dan Marino QB Pittsburgh 28 Washington Redskins Darrell Green DB Texas A&M - Kingsville

20% of the QB's drafted in the top 3 spots are busts. Jamarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Heath Shuler, Ryan Leaf and Rick Mirer were all drafted in those spots. Bourbon is your friend.

They will sign a FA QB who doesn't require any draft pick and they will draft a decent QB in the second round. With all the shiny toys available in the draft and with the number of veteran FA's, there will be good quality available cheaply. We have to rebuild the lines and linebackers- there are holes now and some players will age out in the next 2-3 years. We need to get a firm base before playing shoot-the-moon for Jim Kelly the Second.

Superman at QB is not worth beans if the o-line can not keep him on his feet, and if the defense can't stop the other team. Your logic is that the teams are otherwise matched- then a better QB is important. Sorry, an ok QB with a strong supporting cast will beat a good QB with a weak supporting cast ever time.

Well, the nature of the nfl changes every 5 years or so. But wasn't Kelly a QB? Hasn't the forward pass been around a while? The college QB's are not perfect fits for the NFL of the day, but are pretty close. You have to include a number of years in order for the sample size to be big enough to be meaningful. That goes for a study like the one I wrote about as well as the seat of the pants BS or opinions that people float out there. Kelly