maryland-bills-fan

........ are you saying that 4-5 good players and the 5th best QB is better than the 3rd best QB?

One person's opinion. Click bait, more clicks, more money in his pocket.

Let's say the following happens. The team with the first pick is pretty sure going to take a QB. Dumb-fool Team A gives away all of the first 3 rounds picks to move up to the #2 pick to get a QB Dumb-fool Team B gives away all of the first 3 rounds picks AND next year's #1 to move up to the #4 pick to get a QB Dumb-fool Team C gives away all of the first 3 rounds picks and next year's 1st and 2nd round to move up to the #5 pick to get a QB Many of the posters on this site panic and demand that the Bills HAVE TO trade all 6 early picks and some from next year to be able to slide into the #3 slot. All of these teams will have one great player, who is a shell-shocked rookie QB who get sacked 6 times a game. The teams that collected all these drat picks will be fighting it out in the playoffs for the next 7 years. where do you want to be?

I think we need a ILB and a OLB with speed. The big DT will suck up two blockers and they can get after receivers and RB from sideline to sideline.....Next we need a high quality center and another guard.,,,,,,, after that I would be torn between a speed WR (it is a poor year for them and there might not be good enough one for a 3rd round pick- but we need one bad) and a defensive back. (like money, you can never have enough of them)

Thanks. fixed.

OK. I'm betting that the Bills will not move up very far, or may only move up 3-4 slots to take a QB. (They may see some real value in some guy who is passed over in the top 5 and want to trade up a little for him to prevent somebody else from doing the same). But let's say they stand pat and don't trade at all. This draft is pretty deep in quality players (thin at WR?), so they could get starters from the 6 picks in the first three rounds. I see they brought in an expensive very big DT, who will be use to soak up two blockers and that does set a tone. (vote for 5) You might also indicate what your order of priority would be- assuming equal quality is available for each position and pick.

With all due respect, Cleveland has been such a disfunctional mess that they could have had JC Himself playing QB and still would be a bottom feeder.

Yep. By the way, do you know that 31 teams FAILED to win the super bowl last year?

That is a straw man argument. Those guys were not very good and didn't bring success. That is not an effective or cost effective method. If you fail, it is not cost effective, it is money flushed down the toilet. Remember there are a LOT of high 1st round busts- about 20%. Somehow you have the magic knowledge that your guy won't.

Brown, Brown,, Levi Brown, baddest man in the whole darn town,,,,

You heard it hear FIRST !!! The Bills have offered their entire draft to the Patriots for Tom Brady !! (If it ever happens, I'll be the world's smartest person). Coming next OJ Simpson signs an NFL contract!! ........Yes it is interesting to speculate. No, it doesn't mean any of these in-the-know longshots have anything to back them up. My horse-betting uncle used to talk about a type of sharpie, who would go around before any race and offer free "tips" on different horses to win. Go around to a hundred people and offer every horse in the field as the winner based upon inside information. After the race, he would stand by the payout window and try to cage a reward from the people who won and had heard his "tip". Hmmmm. Now about O.J.......,.

Did anybody notice that we made the playoffs last year with Taylor? I see McCarron as an upgrade from him. I see the free agents that we have brought in as an upgrade. I see 6 picks in the first 3 rounds as an upgrade. Isn't the objective to have a better team? Or is it to complain about the sins of the past?

20% of top three picks for QB are busts. Throw that into you equation. We could lose all those players AND get a dud for a QB.

Did we ever have 2 firsts and 2 seconds and 2 third round picks? NOPE.

Sorry folks, you should have asked me first. God speaks directly into my ear. The Jests just screwed themselves for the next 4 years. They will have a possible good QB on a team that is a depleted roster. He will running for his life, throwing to inferior receivers, playing catch-up and be unable to develop as a NFL QB. All that wasted potential. The Jest pick at #6 because their present team is bad. It will not get to average with losing 3 second round picks. They just wasted $15 million on TWO "should-have-been-good" quarterbacks and now they will be grooming another of the same sort. They would have picked before us before at #6 anyway.

The draft is where we will restock linebackers.

that is why we have so many draft picks. offensive linemen are pretty reliable to draft. they don't wind up that much different from where they are projected.

I came across this post on another thread. Notice the bullet item I have colored/bolded below. We will not see this worked out before the draft because they won't let us (and the world) see their "value" board and it ain't going happen until the draft is actually running. AmishRifle Posted 6 hours ago Beane Presser Takeaways (please feel free to add more as I know I missed some) --Wished Tyrod well and said he'll be rooting for him except when he's playing Buffalo --Thanked all of his Scouts and Staff for their preparation on Free Agency --Admitted that the salary cap will not support any further large Free Agent signings, you may see small depth signings. "Nothing to make the ticker" --Believes in building strong, attacking Defensive Line and protecting Offensive Line (Explaining the DT and DE signings). Aligns with McDermott on this. --Eric Wood remains in same status. Has become a back burner issue with Free Agency and Draft prep. --Emphatically stated that he hasn't completed his prep of potential draftees. His sole focus now is draft preparation. --Skirted the trade up questions with the statement above on not being able to reach a decision yet as the draft preparation is not complete. --Alluded to the notion that they could in fact stay at 12 and get a very good player. --Talked openly of his philosophy of not chasing players, about setting value as in floor and ceiling, and not going outside of that value. --Sees McCarron as having an opportunity to compete for starting position. Called several coaches, including Marvin Lewis, before making his decision. --Stated that they are using a very methodical approach to decision making. --Stated that he's never comfortable with a roster (Answer to "are you comfortable with your wide receivers" question) --Happy to get Richie Incognito restructured. Coming off Pro Bowl year. Important to do. Not much detail on the restructure. Again, feel free to add for those that couldn't listen.

I worked in a technical industry and we often had to work out strategies in situations that were somewhat similar. A lot of posters are working from the following plan: figure out who you want and then pay as much as you can to get him from whoever you can. Regardless of the price or what other damage it does. Or they fixate on making a trade with a certain team and try to figure out what they would take. Have you ever been to a country auction? The first rule is to decide what you max bid is for an item, BEFORE the bidding starts. Rule 2 is get your lower bid in at the right time, so that you can make a bid at your max. (NOT 10% more!) I think they should do the following. Step One. set up the following chart. Players listed in order of priority. (For lower rounds a player might be listed several times, early if we can get him cheap, later if we have to pay a good price. For very top notch players that we really need the player is list at max price first and we expect not to get him cheaper) PLAYER...............position.............................What he is worth to us ====================================================== Player A...................QB..........................#12, #22, #53, #56 2019 #1 Player B...................QB...........................#12, #22, #53 #56 Player C...................QB..............................#12, #22, #53 Player D....................DE.............................#12, #58 .................... Player E..................xx................................#12 .................. Step Two If you know you can work out a trade at a draft spot that makes it SURE that your guy will be there, you can make the trade up a little bit ahead of time. (Example: the #1 pick, or the first X number of teams are surely locked into their guy- and you traded for the next spot). If there are going to be some backup players who you wouldn't also mind drafting in that spot- well you can be happy about this because there is less risk. If the situation doesn't allow this, then go to step three. You would be a fool to sell the farm because you just know that Fred Smith is going to be available at pick 6, overpay for the slot to make sure and have no player equally valuable to you as plan B,,, and then find that Fred Smith was taken at pick 4. Step Three You might discuss with other teams, to some level of detail, what you are interested in and what might they take for a trade. If you are in competition with a possible trade partner, well that is going to be a guarded conversation. IF your guy IS ON THE BOARD WHEN A TEAM IS "ON THE CLOCK" YOU CALL UP AND MADE YOUR BID FROM Step 1. You don't have to start with the max bid listed in the chart, but that is the MAX you will pay. If they tell you to go pound sand, then it's sorry, see you later. Step Four As the top guys come off your list (if they do) you cross off Player A and start trying to trade up for Player B and offer up what you have listed in Step 1, to the next team on the clock. It is a simple procedure, but a GM can not say ahead of time, exactly what he is going to do.

No way. If we trade up to the top 3 before draft day, anybody who wants the same guy can trade up to the top 2 and beat us there. Also, you would have to way overpay. The teams holding the pick will see their best offers when they are on the clock and somebody is really desperate. If you overpay by half, they will take it ahead of time and you are still not sure of getting your guy. Have you ever played poker? Something people are IGNORING is that, maybe,,, just maybe.... the teams you are thinking of moving up with and trading with, may want that same player themselves? (are we that much smarter than them?). OR, they might like where they are sitting and want to use the pick themselves to get a player that they want. Maybe they want the best RB that has appeared in the past several years. Maybe they like a really really good defensive end? Maybe they want one of the QB's- maybe not the same one as us. If so- then no trade. Maybe for our entire draft and our 1st round picks for the rest of the decade. If those teams want to trade down.

Notice that the Jets and Broncos have higher draft picks to trade and can also use next years #1 picks.

I don't think we can get Darnold away from the Browns, Giants, Broncos or Jets. I would rather see if one of the top 5 QB's lands to us at #12, and if not, then take a second tier guy in the second round and restock the team with quality players. Maybe even swap #12 for a second this year and a 1st for 2019.

EJ should take up bass fishing with a fly rod and big bass bugs. Be careful with his money and enjoy life.

Uh, I know I drink a lot and am happy to remember why I came into a room, but I don't recall writing that first statement. Anyway, reality is just an illusion.

I think that only the first 3 rounds are significant in the draft. After that, I don't think there is too much difference between UFA and a guy from the middle of the 7th round.