maryland-bills-fan

I still see 7 holes in the roster including a rookie QB. If we trade up to the top 5 or 6, we are talking about both 1st and 2nd round picks and next year's 1st round. That will likely give the 3rd or 4th QB with a 50% bust rate. We would then (by the end of the 2018 draft) have one 2nd round and three 3rd round picks to fix the remaining 6 holes in the roster. Opps, we would probably have an injury or FA and it might be 8 holes in the roster. Say then it takes 2 more years to catch up. It is now 2021 and the team is "rebuilt" and competitive. (well, with the QB bust rate it is a 50% chance at best). Sorry, but is that a smart place to be? The why did they trade their top WR?

Let's look at the stats. McCoy had 287 attempts and Taylor had 84. So of those two, Taylor had 22% of the running plays. For yardage Taylor had 27% of the running yardage.....................Does that sound like a good recipe for you? No. Player Age Pos G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% YScm RRTD Fmb 25 LeSean McCoy* 29 RB 16 16 287 1138 6 48 4.0 71.1 17.9 77 59 448 7.6 2 39 3.7 28.0 76.6% 1586 8 3 5 Tyrod Taylor 28 QB 15 14 84 427 4 32 5.1 28.5 5.6 427 4 4

I don't know what they will do. It depends upon too many unknow outside of anybody's control or knowledge. I think each possibility (trade up a few, stay pat, trade down a few) are all about equally possible. Its a 1 in 3 chance, not an even chance.

Nope. The Pats are evil magic. They traded him off for a higher draft pick and have a replacement cast-off from another team who will step right in and be another Hogan / Edelman. Guy who were given up on by other teams and who are now starters for a top-notch team. Look at the Pat's drafts. Last year: DE, DE, OT, OT. ....... 2016 CB, OL, QB, NT...........2015 DT, S, DE/LB, DE..................2014 (DL , 2nd Round – Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, (OL (RB, (OT, o (G, (DE, (DB, WR,

They dumped an over the hill redundant offensive tackle and got a better draft pick. They could do a lot of things with that improvement. Trading further up in the 1st round is just one of them.

Oh yes he does. Who needs stinking offensive linemen. Star QB wetdream isn't bothered by blitzers because he throws to a 6th round WR for a 60 yard gain every time he touches the ball. The other teams running backs don't run past the backup linebackers on the field because they are scared of the star QB and have given up. Yep, all you need is a QB. .... He does everything and sells beer during TV commercial breaks. (sic)

That is just silly and being a troll. I am not if favor of trading way up past a few spots to get a QB but would not "avoid a QB" if it got us a very good QB. So just stop that line of attack.

What do you mean by "Conspiracy theories"? Have you mixed up your post with some political blog? The Pats are famous for trading away guys who have become sort of stars under their system. When they are a bit over the hill but still have a great reputation, the Pats sell them off at a premium and wind up with high draft picks for a soon-to-be-fading overpaid star. Last year's trades of the Bills is along the same line. It is called smart.

Probably not. A number of average QB's have won superbowls, but it is unlikely. If one of the top 4 (5?) doesn't drop to #12, we may be a year or two away from finding the guy. One thing I will challenge you with: Please show how the present roster (those other 21 guys on the field) is going to be able to be carried along by a God-like QB. We would be playing with backups from a 8-8 / 9-7 lucky team and free agents that were released from other teams. That is NOT going to go very far.

Heh? Remember that EJ guy they drafted in the first round? Wasn't he a long snapper or backup punter? ..... By the way, you want to trade EVERY pick? Who is going to play linebacker? (Oh, the new QB is going to go both ways. Didn't think of that. Sorry.)

what is the depth if a starter goes down? ZIP.

Okay, how do you know this? A common theme in reconnaissance and in camouflage is that people SEE what they EXPECT to see. I think you evaluated the trade of Glenn as proving that the Bill's plan was solely to move up and draft a QB. I think that is tunnel vision...... I think they wanted to dump an expensive salary-cap-and-declining-abilities player while he still had some value. Did they trade any other near starting players to lose salary and replace with later draft picks who would be maturing at the same, later date? Explain the trades of Goodwin, Darby, Watkins, Ragland, and Dareus, as well. (Have you noticed that the Patriots trade away good, older players a year early for high draft picks to restock the team?)........The Bills could do many things with having the higher pick. One would be to trade further up to get a top QB. Another would be to take a stud player at a different position. Another would be to trade down to get more first three round draft picks. Avoid tunnel vision. There might be a train coming the other way.

Question: Your team is in a passing down. How many offensive linemen have to miss a block before the QB is out for the year with a concussion or broken leg....................But who needs offensive linemen?

I am amused by all the experts who know about the "can't miss" rookie QB, who can perform miracles without an offensive line, wide receivers or linebackers on defense. ..... Please remember that or offensive line was bailed out by Taylor's feet and that we have aging ,declining guards, that we lost our starting center and traded away a rotational starting tackle. Three new faces are needed there................ We have one starting linebacker and need two more. Somebody from the first two rounds would do..................... Our wide receivers scare nobody, but Mr. Miracle Quarterback is going to have those guys free down the sidelines for a 50yard gain and shaking loose from coverage over the middle and getting an average 15 yard YAC on every play. Don't think so. At least one pick in the first 3 rounds is needed............Oh, did you forget that we lost some people as FA who had "DB" as their position? Maybe one more pick in the 1st three rounds is needed here...........................................BUT lets ignore all that and trade the first two rounds from this year and next year's first for a 50:50 shot. Yea, right. With all these needs (six plus a QB = 7) I can not see going in the direction of trading away the draft picks necessary to field a competitive team in order to get a possible star to have wet dreams about. The games are won in the "trenches". A cute rookie QB with a broken leg is not good for anything. I say we should do the following. Stay at #12 in case the QB that the Bills could live with is available. If not, they trade down and get your Bart Starr, Jim Kelly or Dan Marion with a later pick. (with arm twisting, moving up 3-4 spots and losing next year's 2nd rounder would be okay) Here is what we could get with a trade-down from the #12 pick. down to gets us this overall pick ============================== #14............100th player (4th round) #16.............78th player (3rd round) #18............60th player (2nd round) #20............55th player #22.............48th player #24.............44th player #26.............40th player #28.............36th player #30.............32nd player #32...............30.5th player (1st round) . . From Walter Football, here is a list of the players in that 30-55 range that we get for "free" by trading down. (I don't agree that all these guys will be available this low, but it gives you the idea). 30. Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. Previously: 30 Avg. 23.8 per 30 31. Marcus Davenport, DE, Texas-San Antonio. Previously: 31 Avg. 31.8 per 10 32. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Previously: 32 Avg. 42.1 per 17 33. Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M. Previously: 33 Avg. 25.2 per 30 34. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia. Previously: 34 Avg. 32.4 per 30 35. Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech. Previously: 35 Avg. 34.6 per 10 36. James Daniels, C, Iowa. Previously: 36 Avg. 36 per 9 37. Terrell Edmunds, S, Virginia Tech. Previously: 37 Avg. 37 per 24 38. Justin Reid, S, Stanford. Previously: 38 Avg. 32.8 per 19 39. Will Hernandez, G, UTEP. Previously: 39 Avg. 38.9 per 20 40. Kolton Miller, OT, UCLA. Previously: 40 Avg. 37.4 per 10 41. Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. Previously: 41 Avg. 48.8 per 9 42. D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland. Previously: NR Avg. 0 per 0 43. Harold Landry, DE, Boston College. Previously: 43 Avg. 32.2 per 30 44. JC Jackson, CB, Maryland. Previously: 44 Avg. 32.4 per 11 45. Dorance Armstrong Jr., DE, Kansas. Previously: 45 Avg. 28.1 per 30 46. Isaiah Wynn, OT, Georgia. Previously: 46 Avg. 46 per 14 47. Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn. Previously: 47 Avg. 46.9 per 17 48. Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State. Previously: 48 Avg. 45.6 per 30 49. Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. Previously: 49 Avg. 29.6 per 30 50. Jordan Whitehead, S, Pittsburgh. Previously: 50 Avg. 46.1 per 30 51. R.J. McIntosh, DT, Miami. Previously: 51 Avg. 54.9 per 9 52. Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma. Previously: 52 Avg. 52 per 9 53. Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado. Previously: 53 Avg. 53 per 9 54. Ronald Jones II, RB, USC. Previously: 54 Avg. 54 per 9 55. Duke Ejiofor, DE, Wake Forest. http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftbigboard#ixzz5BhirZysC A good center, a good linebacker, a good WR or a good RB. You get an extra solid player, probably a starter, for your effort. If the best QB shots are gone at #12, build a strong team with those 7 picks and take a QB out of the top 15.

That is SIX completions in one half !!! Yep, getting into the play-offs for the first time in forever, means they failed. Yep. If they win the superbowl, then they failed because they got pick #32 the next year. Yep. Yep, we had two first round picks. With #12 we took a tight end. With #14 we took Kelly. Seems that to repeat this success we should trade down from #12 to #14 and pick up an early 4th round pick.

It is likely that the Bills ARE working on moving up to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd........11th pick. They would be amiss NOT to have worked out what it would take to get to each of those picks. One reason is that things might get weird and they would actually do it. Another reason is that they want to find out if there are any "bargains" out there. Another reason is to see what the costs actually are, so that they can predict what other teams might want to move up. Another reason is to set out a smokescreen so other teams can not figure out what they are going to do, or might completely be fooled on what they Bills are favoring. ........... But every sports writer with a keyboard is going to make 5-10 different predictions, based upon imaginary secret inside information, so they can later brag about being right.

Gee, isn't it funny that with all the professional teams drafting, they will have 4-6 QB's in the first 32, rather than 1. I guess those guys aren't as smart as the guys who made that list.

Uh,,,,, We had our dog fixed last year.

Guess what? People don't seem to be able to figure that the fish might trade up to that same spot to get ahead of us.

Gee, not really. Maybe there are a lot of QB one week. Maybe there are a lot of cheap, were-high-draft-pick veterans around this year. Maybe it is a great year for blind-side offensive tackles. Maybe most of the league is 7-9 to 9-7 this year, so good & bad teams are scrambled in draft sequence. Maybe the early drafters took QB's the last 3 years and don't want to draft them but there are a lot of good QB's this year? There is a lot of variation in the "bidders" year to year in the nfl draft.

What I do see is that most of the trades of draft picks come pretty close ( 10% or better) to that 40 year old Cowboy chart. It is supposed to be pegged to the odds of getting a starting NFL QB. I have seen a number of analysis this year that it is off. It undervalues the chance of doing that with lower round draft picks. (even lower half of the first and the 2nd, & 3rd round).. But who wants to draft a 3rd rounder for 7 years to get one franchse QB?

What I see is that the Bills made some trades to dump high salary, fair-to-good quality veteran players. These were guys who had high cap numbers, quite a bit of trade value and were players would be on the downside of their careers and expensive at the time in the future when the Bills rebuilding was coming to completion. Sell high / buy low. Somehow many of our posters just KNOW that the Bills were doing all this, only for the purpose of trading up for a QB. Okay, how do they know this? I didn't get that memo. I haven't seen any quotes from the Bills management saying that. Not to get into politics, but the mainstream press has been screaming that Trump used the Russians to steal the election- and over a year later there is nothing but the press repeating themselves and reporting on their old reports as proof. Likewise, the trade-up QB crowd are all talking within their own bubble and have made themselves foreign to other viewpoints. I think the Bills were dumping salary and trading off aging players while they still had trade value. They can be and are being replaced by (mostly) cheap free agents and the draft is being used to upgrade the overall team. Those trades generated 3 extra picks in the top three rounds- that is enough reason.

Ever attend a country auction? Two important rules: {1} Look the goods over and decide how much you are willing to pay for each item. This prevents you from doing something in the heat of the moment and overpaying. {2} Find out what the bidding step increments are and place you bid so that you can make your last bid your maximum bid. You don't want somebody else walking away with the goods at your price. Right now there are 4-6 QB's (?) who might be in play for the Bills to draft in the first round. In my former life, I was involved in buying a lot of expensive technical equipment. With a limited amount of upgrade money to spend, we would have to decide what area to upgrade, what the various equipment might help our product and what the cost of the equipment might be after haggling with the manufacturer of the equipment. Real apples and oranges comparisons. Ultimately we would set our max bid for each alternative and then start bargaining. You might do the same thing buying a used truck. The Bills probably have ltwo lists that look something like the following: Trade value "money"chart #12 1200 #22 780 #53 370 #56 340 #65 265 #96 116 2019 #1 1000? 2019 #2 700? QB max bid chart.................the entries in this chart are speculative. The order is the order of priority-who we want first is at the top. Rosen 2300 Darnold 2100 Allen 1900 Mayfield 1500 Jackson 1400 Rudolph 800 The "max QB bid chart" is NOT what anybody thinks that the QB is worth in an absolute sense. It is what it is worth to the Bills, and this balances the particular fit with the Bills (a running QB, or a California dude with small hands, or a guy with xyz warts) against the value of the other things the Bills could use that draft "money" for. Some of the entries could never be bought at the prices listed. We are not in the running for those guys. If someone wants a solid gold radiator, well lets not get into a bidding war with them. What we do in the draft is offer our max bid to the team on the clock for the guy who is highest on the list and still available. Sooner or later something is going to hit. It is possible that we get down to our #12 slot and take the best guy- -OR-- we might also be glancing at a third chart (maybe it is ILB max bid chart) and take our QB of the defense instead. One thing not to do, is to trade up ahead of time to (example) a #8 pick and wind up being stuck there. There are number of things that might go wrong. We might not have a valuable QB available there and have to "overpay" by burning that pick on somebody we could have gotten lower in the draft. We might also let some other team jump us to pick #7 and take "our guy" just ahead of us. Nothing like having a target on your back and having shown your poker hand. I would be interested to see what people's "QB max bid" table would look like.

No way that they are going to use next year's first to trade up to 6.

A couple of speedy linebackers to replace our present 3rd string guys is a good idea. But we can get them with our 4th and 5th round picks.