maryland-bills-fan

No. I am not willing to trade up to the top 3 slots to get one. Slots 4-7 is a maybe (I don't know if the top ones are so good that it would be worth it). 8+ for one of the top 4 I would do.

The draft-value-chart is an old Dallas Cowboy chart that is supposed to tell the chances of getting a starting QB from picks in the draft. Recent analysis of it shows it shows costs to be higher than practice but it is okay to use as an approximation. Recently, the Jets made a trade up from #6 to #3. They seem to have overpaid, but I am going to take the assumption that they have reset the market for moving up high in the draft for this year. They overspent by 25%. Their 1st pick, their two second round picks and next year's probably 2nd round pick (picks a year ahead are discounted by 50%) shows as: 1600+ 530+ 410+ 215(?)= 2750 points for a 2200 point spot..... 100x 2750/2200= 125%. In the workup below, the price of a draft spot is calculated as 1.25x the draft value chart value. The Bills have the following to spend for a trade up this year. Pick.............. value..........running sum 12 ...............1200 ..................1200 23 ................760 ...................1960 53............... 370.................... 2330 56................ 340................... 2670 65 ...............265 ...................2935 96 ...............116 ...................3051 117............. 60 .....................3111 2019 picks?? finish in 16th place ?? Discount at 50%? 1st rounder......................500 points 2nd rounder....................220 points ==================================================================== Here is a list of the pick, the 125% price and which picks the Bills would likely give up for that pick team.....................pick..........price................... picks given up ================================================================ Browns.................. 1 ............3750................... whole draft + 2019 1st round Cowboys ...............2........... 3250....................... whole draft + 2019 2nd round Jets..................... 3................ ????........................ yea, right. 1st round 2nd round 3rd round 4th round Browns................. 4............ 2250...................... 12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Denver.................. 5............. 2125 ......................12, 22,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Colts (jets)........... 6.............. 2000....................... 12, 22 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117 Bucks.................... 7............. 1875 .......................12, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Bears...................... 8 ............1750....................... 12 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 53 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 96 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117 49ers...................... 9........... 1690........................ 12 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,53 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117 Raiders.................. 10.......... 1625......................... 12 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 56 ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 117 fish 11 ======================================================================================= Okay I consider that pick 1 and 2 are out of reach. (Sorry for all you Mike Dika fans). We can not give up the entire draft and one of the two top picks from next year as well. We only squeeked into the playoffs and we traded a good number of starters recently. A depleted roster for the next 3 years and God for QB is not going to cut it. The Jets are not going to trade with us, since they moved up for a QB. At that point in the draft there will be one or two of the top 4 QB's left and we are looking at trading up with the Browns, Broncos or Colts. (Yes we can afford those trades and give up two firsts and a second round pick. That would still leave us with a 2nd round pick for this year and nothing lost from 2019. ) The Browns have a LOT of picks this year and may not be interested in trading down because there I some special player, like a DE or RB that they want to pick. Even if we overpay beyond the extra 25% listed. The you add that that the Broncos and Colts both have aging starting QB's and might take a QB themselves. All three of them might get a better trade offer from another team and then all 4 top QB's are off the board. So what happens lies outside of our control. The Browns and Jets will take QB's. The Browns have plenty of draft picks and will probably take a RB at #4 rather than trade with us. If the Giants take a QB we are probably shut out of the top 4 QB's as the 4th QB would have to get by the Colts and Broncos. (They can easily trade with one another). If they don't do that, then we could target the Bucs or Bears to beat out the Fish for Mr. #4 QB and also not pay through the nose. And if all are gone, well, then we have to decide on a MLB at #12 or trading down and taking a QB at #22 or in the second round for this year.

It is not an automatic thing that somebody will trade with us this year.

7th round picks are little better than undrafted free agents.

"If they weren't trading up, they'd have traded Glenn not for a move up but for another draft pick. " I think that is not the only explanation for trading away Glenn. Yes, they could have traded him for just a lower round draft pick. But trading up for upgrading that 1st round pick was a better option for a variety of reasons, and not just solely the one you gave. It does not LOCK the Bills only into trading further up for a QB. Other very good reasons: (1) they might get the QB they want or a very good QB with the #12 pick. Every year the "experts" are saying that so-and-so is a lock for a top 5 pick, and then the guy falls out of the top half of the 1st round. Maybe the guy they want is not one of the sainted top 4 that everyone is wetting their pants about. (2) there might be a non-QB that they have their eye on at #12 and want to get him, if they can't trade up for the top QB(s) in the top 5(?). (3) holding the #12 pick means that an elite, special player is available. There is a good chance that another team really has the hots for that guy and will want to trade up to your #12 to get him. Let's say that guy or someone else at #12 is not real important to the Bills- they can get the same type of player later. Okay, what you do is make that another team, pay through the nose for the pick and you get more for their trade up than the market value. You don't have the chance to take advantage of this situation if you just took the lower round pick for Glenn. Example: we got a bump up of 420 draft points for trading Glenn (equivalent to the 16th pick in the 2nd round) Maybe we trade down again from #12 and get the first and second round picks from the team in the 17th spot. We pick up 1350 points for a spot that was worth 1200 points. It is like gaining another 3rd round pick. That is a good thing. Most people think that McCarron is a better option than Peterman. If we don't go QB in the first round, then I expect they will go QB in the 2nd or 3rd round which would be an upgrade from Peterman.

Is trading up to the top 5 spots the only way to get a QB? Remember that "filler" or "retread QB" that we drafted with the 14th pick ? His name was Jim Kelly. I'm not trying to be insulting but this "we have to trade up" cult seems to be blind and deaf to anything that differs from the party line. (I don't know how the image below got stuck in the post. Please ignore it.)

If the Bills don't get their QB of the future this draft, well then there is next year and the year after. We have two 1st, two 2nd and two third round picks this year. Maybe we can load up picks for another try next year. Trade down from #12 to get a first and second round pick this year. Trade that second round pick and one of the other 2nd round picks for two 2019 first round picks. That would give us three 1st round picks next year. We should be able to get any guy we wanted OR do a similar deal to get 3 in 2020. This year we would have:........... two 1st round picks...........one second round pick and.........two third round picks. Not saying we could find partners for such a deal, but it would give us a good draft this year and a lot of ammo for next year.

Chill out. No need to insult people.

"The hole is bottomless? ". McCarron won two college national championships and has played most of 4 games in the NFL. He has a 93.6 QB rating. that is not a bottomless hole.

You can not expect scrubs from other teams to beat the best players. I think that the house cleaning (Darby, Watkins etc) was done to start over with a different core of young players. You have to get those players in place before a QB will make a difference.

There are so many "exceptions to the rule". People winning without a "franchise QB". People getting NFL starters in the third round. etc.

All the top 5 have warts. Are they worth two 1st round, two seconds and a third round pick. Don't think so.

As I've said before, I think the Bills wanted to dump big contracts and aging players ASAP and would take what they got for them. They have a 3 year? 5 year? plan for getting to be a top team and these guys will not be helping them at that point.. Hence Watkins and Darby and Glenn are gone. What they got for Glen was an improvement in 1st round draft position. What for? For whatever is best for the team. It is not written in stone that the only thing is for moving up for a top QB. Maybe they might be able to move up a few notches for one of the top QB. Maybe they stand pat and can also get a top QB at that spot. Maybe there is a position player (MLB?) to take there. Maybe they trade down and pick up another 1st day draft slot. I don't know how they rank the top 4-5 QB's, so I would just be guessing. I think that there is a chance they stay pat and take BPA or even move down to get another pick. I don't see how they HAVE TO be committed to moving up to the top five picks. It is not written in stone. One thing that IS TRUE is that the trades and weaknesses in several positions means there are a lot of holes to fill and that might be what they fix.

The cost would be both firsts, a second and a third. 2600 -1200= 1400 trade our #12 first round 1400- 780= 620 trade our #22 first round 620- 370= 250 trade our #53 second round 250- 265- done trade our top of 3rd round that leaves us with no first round pick (other than the QB) and one second and one third. That sounds good but doesn't fill the holes that are in the roster.

McShay? What the dickens does he know. Ask Bergman.

Yes. The "trade up to pick #2 crowd" is saying that we can buy superman, ignore trading many good veteran players, have little in the way of draft for the next 2 years...... and, baby, we are superbowl bound. NOT.

BUT . Every draft is different. There are so many posters saying that we could NEVER (that is an absolute statement) get a good QB unless we trade up to the top 5 or top 10 or top half of the first round or first round......etc. Pretty recent history proves that statement is ignorant. The "expert"s are often full of it.

Yes, I'm on spring break and am sick from eating too many Tide Pods.

Take the comment with a grain of salt as sarcasm.

I guess I'm done, since I don't have your approval. By the way, Garo was a second round draft pick. He was picked AFTER Bortles #3 Manziel #22 Bridgewater #32 ----------------------- Carr #36 Garoppolo #62 ------------------------ none in the 3rd round. What do you say about all those NFL experts who chose Manziel and Bridgewater over Garoppolo? Hmmmm, the QB draft had a 33% success rate for the first round and a 100% success rate for the second round.

...and all the other players are all equal on every team, so only the QB matters.

Sorry, that is a deep as I will explain it to you.

James Richard Garoppolo (born November 2, 1991) is an American football quarterback for the San Francisco 49ers of the National Football League (NFL). He played college football at Eastern Illinois and was drafted in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft by the New England Patriots, with whom he won two Super Bowls as the backup to Tom Brady. As a senior in 2013, Garoppolo broke Tony Romo's school records for career passing touchdowns, career passing yards, and passing touchdowns in a season.[1][2][3] That season, he also won the Walter Payton Award as the best offensive player in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS).[4] Garoppolo saw light duty behind Brady in his seasons in New England. In October 2017, Garoppolo was traded by the Patriots to the 49ers. He won his first five starts with his new team as quarterback, which, including his two victorious starts for New England, earned him a 7–0 record as a starter, a feat last accomplished by Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Garoppolo signed a lucrative, record-breaking five-year contract with the 49ers in February 2018

No, my plan is to have a decent QB fall to us at #12. If not we draft somebody in the 2nd round or the #22 pick, and try again next year with a better roster in place. We wind up with a decent QB and a strong team and win the division as Brady gets injured and retires. Does that work for you?

Yes, I agree and have another thread which is along the same lines. We have a lot of holes and that is what the draft picks should be used to fix, unless a very good QB falls into our laps. Spending everything to move up for a 50% shot at Mr. Wonderful is foolish. Mr. Wonderful might be a bust just on his own, and since he would be playing with a "B" team supporting cast and defense, he would be wasted.