maryland-bills-fan

The Pat's have done this for years. The got the guy who might be the best QB ever in the NFL in the 5th round and have an evil genius for coach. They fill the roster with working stiffs from high in the draft and a bunch of veteran retreads. Bellycheap has the ability to see the following in veteran players. They may not be a "complete" player, but they do some things really well. He fits a number of these guys together and makes it work as a superior team. Evil genius. Then he also is smart enough to trade away some guys who look really really good playing in his system for draft picks. Garro at SF is an example. He picks up very solid linemen and linebackers. They play for years with lower salaries. The retread veterans play for lower salaries. He can afford the ocasional high prices guy for a year or two. I think Beane and company are doing something like that. They traded away the high priced guys (Darby, Watkins, Darious etc) and will replace them with 1-3rd round rookies and low cost veterans. He is beating the bushes for former upper draft pick guys and will sort thu them and find some cheap keepers who will play at a good level. I don't know what they will do. Does he see the next Tom Brady within the top 4 QB's and shoot for the moon in the draft? Or will he take a quite good QB (who maybe in other years would be a top 10 pick) and get him at #22 or in the second round?

The pasties will do their usual. They will use their first six picks to get solid players at OL, linebacker, defensive line and corner. They will take a late 2nd round, really good QB, who got lost in the glamor show and groom him for 2 years and then flip him for a first and third round pick. Brady will play for another 5 years and that QB will get some good showcasing, when Brady takes a few games off after the playoffs are in the bag. Having all those six, 1,2,3 round picks will make him look like the second coming. That is the plan. They have been doing this sort of things for years. It works.

No. I won't stand for tanking. I have had enough years of being a joke in the NFL. Marlin Briscoe is hanging his head in shame. God asks me for advice. I tell the stock market what their closing number will be. I say whether it will rain or snow or be clear. The oceans ask me if they should rise or fall. I can make the sun move backwards. No more losing seasons. Final.

Why we did the wrong thing!

Yes, that is the best you could do. But imagine what you could have done for those positions with those 2 first and 2 second round picks ! Somehow I feel that Beane and company are NOT going to spend anything more on wide receiver. There are a lot of seasoned veteran WR's looking for work. They have known NFL abilities and they might clobber together several one-trick ponies and shuffle these guys in and out of the lineup.

That is probably 5 players at other positions. Who is going to play linebacker, wider receiver and offensive line? Really? The Pats have picks 23 & 31,,,,,,,43 & 63,,,,,,,& 95. That is 760 & 600,,,,,,470 & 276,,,,,,,and 120 points. That is 226 points enought ot move up to 3rd. If the 25% premium cost (set by the Jets?) is in place, that is enough to get them the #4 pick.

Wouldn't it really suck if the Bills spent their 4 first picks for a QB, who then goes into concussion protocal from slipping coming out of the bathtub?

Lets imagine an alternate universe, where say Rosen and Darnold are going to be juniors this year. Might we be real happy to trade up to #8 or so and get somebody like Rudolf?

That would be silly.

two firsts and a second would be just fine.

I can't see the #2 pick going for our two firsts and the higher second round pick. That would be 1200 + 780 + 370= 2350 point for a 2600 point pick. 250 points UNDER. The jets used 1600 + 530 + 410 + next year's 2nd round= 2540 + {2019 2nd round} for a 2600 point pick. If they come in at #15 next year (placing as the 17th best record) and we use a 50% discount, the jets are spending 2750 for a 2600 point pick. That is 150 points over, rather than 250 points under. If the Giants are giving us a discount, it would be very nice. If the Giants just need our two firsts and two seconds, you can twist my arm. If the jets are setting a new standard, I think it will cost too much.

Well the difference is this. Trading up to #12 puts the top 4 QB's in play with another trade up. That is different than saying that it is proof that we are totally committed and ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO trade up to the top 2 or 3 spots. Some posters are slamming and yelling at anybody who does not totally accept that we HAVE to trade our entire draft and next year's draft as well to do this. A lot of noise over this.

They traded up because it put getting a top QB in play. That is a given. It doesn't mean that was the only plan or thing to do with the pick

Aha. I've just done a couple of post on similar topics (early April). Looks like this ground has already been plowed over.

Sorry, I just went down the list and did every other draft slot to keep the amount of work down and give an idea of what sort of return there would be. Now to forestall your next post, we could also have traded down to the ODD number picks as well.

"....You pointed out that one of the options was to trade up in order to trade down. ............." You seem to have difficulty with logic and English. I said that after trading up, (so the starting point that the options flow from is from the #12 pick), we had several options, one of which was to trade back down again. NOT that the option was to trade up in order to trade down. Please! stop.

Well in my neck of the woods people were happy to see the Bills actually get into the playoffs this year. I'm afraid that after a taste of success, 2-3 years of miserable football might be fatal. Remember there are number of big cities out west without teams.

Well I never said we were trading up in order to trade down. I did say that was one of the options with a higher pick. (By the way, you might have to admit that teams with higher picks DO sometimes trade down). And it is also true that you might be able to get someone to overpay for that higher pick. Now, could you please identify that NFL GM that your have in red above? What is his name? How does he know what Beane is going to do? Is he looking into his ear or wiretapping his office? I guess it is just what we used to call a Shxxhouse rumor and they are all over the place as clickbait. By the way, do you want to change the following statement? "Doesn't fly, man. Beane has made it extremely clear that he's a conservative guy, financially and in terms of trades. He's a guy who understands how important extra picks are. " It is nice to see you agree that Beane is a conservative guy. Would a conservative guy bet the farm on an unproven rookie in a position where there is a 50% fail rate? Hmmmm. Also, I'm glad to see you agree he understands how "important extra picks are." He might even think that you should spread your risks, rather then risk everything on one roll of the dice. Glad to see we agree on all this.

Naw I'm finished with school. Why is it so terrible to actually use grammar school addition to see if it makes sense to trade up into the top 4? So many of the early posters on this thread are acting like middle school teenage girls.

The top 3 slots are so expensive. (3000, 2600, 2200 are the costs for the 1st three picks). If you were drafting in the #7 spot, it would take you this entire draft (~2400 points) and some of next year's draft to get the 3000 points for the first overall pick. Ouch. You started out with a time that was 25th in the league and you probably lost a few starters due to age or free agency. Ouch. And then everybody added about 3-4 quality draft picks and you added none. It is a long way to catch up from there, even with a much better QB. By the way, rookie QB's playing with bad teams do NOT develop all their potential and remember that about 50% of them (regardless of how beautiful they look at the combine) don't work out. ....... With the loss of many players from the Bills I think we are in poorer shape right now than last year. We might be in that sort of boat.

I hear they would throw in a bushel basket of footballs as well.

Yes, it would cost this entire draft (with those extra 3 players in the first 3 rounds) and next year's 2nd round pick. The wide receivers would scare nobody. We have only one starting type linebacker and the offensive line is old and might completely implode. It would be ugly football for at least the next two years. I wonder if the city and if a NFL team in the city could stand that.

I think the expense of moving up to the top 3 spots is too high (basically this year's draft and some of next year's). There has to be some sense of balance between needing a QB and wrecking the incoming new, cheap rookie players for the this and part of next year. The Browns will likely go QB and DE/RB so the highest available spot is #5/#6 where it will likely cost both firsts and a second/lower level pick. If we can swing a deal there and if the right guy (not just the last of the 4 standing) is there, it looks like worth a shot. The unknowns are the Giants, Colts and Bronco's wanting a QB.

Somebody was saying that we HAD TO trade up from #12 to get a QB, otherwise we would just be sitting around with "filler" or "retread" QB's. Kelly was our second pick at #14 in that first round and turned out okay. It was also another "great draft year for quarterbacks".

I disagree. If he can not show sufficient accuracy playing in college, how is that going to improve against better cornerbacks and pass rushers and more complicated schemes? I would be scared of drafting him and having to depend upon him. 2nd round at best.