maryland-bills-fan

I think they look at the NFL as one company with different franchises. Burger King has many franchises but they control the product sold at all of them.

Remember Chris Berman. He's not doing the draft this year. https://www.seccountry.com/sec/2017-nfl-draft-chris-berman

Well I wasn't trying to screw things by omitting 1999- I just figured this century would be a good place to stop counting on my fingers. I think moving up to the pick 6 or 7 or 8 range should get us a guy who might be just as good as guys taken earlier. They we still have some draft picks this year to get a top linebacker and some offensive line help. No need to give up three 1st round and 2 second round picks.

It matters because it shows that there is a risk (about 50% is the generally accepted number) of a QB being a bust in the first round. You have to balance the risk of a bust, against the alternate plan of using that/those picks on positions where the bust rate is much lower. If you are using a lot (5?) high picks to move up in the draft, you are losing the benefit of those lost players and losing spreading the risks over more players. If there are 5 really good franchise QB's coming out this year, it makes more sense to me to use 2 of those 5 high picks to move up and draft the 4th or 5th QB taken. You get a different set of "warts" on your QB and who knows which one will be the best one in a couple of years?

Who is the middle linebacker? Last year's 3rd string? Don't expect anything truthful to be said by team officials this close to the draft.

There was a good post in Buffalo Rumblings that gave something like a 80% hit rate for #1, a 50% hit rate for 1st round and 30% hit rate for the 2nd / 3rd rounds. The cost per draft point roughly comes out to #1= 37.,,,,,,1st round= 20,,,,,2nd/3rd= 9. So it is 4X more expensive to use the #1, ,,,,2X as expensive to use the 1st round than using the 2nd/3rd round. That's nice but to use the 2nd/3rd round you have to draft and try to develop 6-7 guys. Some teams draft a QB during the late first day of the draft every year to try this out and spend a year or two on the guy to see what happens. The bad thing is they loose out on getting LB/OL/WR guys who have a much higher success rate.

So if that is true, you could argue that the sixth pick this year is like a first pick for some poor QB years? Our highest pick is #12, so if 6 non-QB's are taken before our pick, we get the same as some year's first QB by staying pat? (Frankly, I think the pundits are overranking the present crop of QB to get internet clicks and attention. The 4th QB might be available at #12. We won't know for 5 years if he was good enough if that happens. )

Who knows what this means at the top of the draft. You can understand what it means for reaching down, but what does it mean for reaching up?

You don't give out that sort of information about your employer's plans. It doesn't matter how innocent you think it is or how it is can't be traced to you. In most companies, even a hint that you have been talking in private with spies gets your butt canned in minutes.

So.....23 busts and 18 "yes's".

Hello, Mr. Billionaire stock speculator. I have a question. Which stocks do you think are going to surprise people and triple in value in the next mouth. Well there is xyf and wer90 and DCG. Right. Do you really think that anybody in the know would be honest about his reply? No, he would try to hide his real pick.

He was only about 5'7" and couldn't see over the offensive line.

I published these elsewhere on this forum. I don't disagree that 5 or 6 QBs is the predictions from a lot of people. But that is a lot of QB compared to what has happened in the past. ost years there are 2-3 first round picks total. This year's pundit prediction is 4-5 picks in the first round. Most years there are 1 to 2 picks in the top 10 (that is in the top 5 and the 6-10 slots). This year are supposed to be 5. Somehow that doesn't sound right.....Four years with 4,,,,, Seven years with 3,,,,, Five years with 2,,,,,,,,,,,Two years with 1. 6 QB in the first round just doesn't fit somehow. Especially since the college QB's might come our early or a year later (redshirt somehow) to avoid a year when they could get pushed out of the 1st round. Year................top 5............... 6-10................. 11 to 32 =========================================== 2018............... 3?..................... 2?..................... 1? 2017 ................1......................... 1..................... 1....................,,,,,,,,,,,,,3 2016 ................2.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2 2015 ................2.......................... 0.................. 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2 2014................ 1........................... 0.................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3 2013 ................1.......................... 0................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1 2012 ................2.......................... 1................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4 2011 ................1.......................... 2.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4 2010 .................1..........................0................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2 2009..................2......................... 0................... 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3 2008................. 1......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2 2007 .................1.......................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2 2006 .................1.......................... 1................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3 2005 .................1.......................... 0................. 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3 2004 .................2............................ 1.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4 2003 .................1.......................... 1................... 2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4 2002 ................2............................. 0 .................1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3 2001 ................1............................... 0.................. 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3 2000 .................1.......................... 0...................... 0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1

I showed the worst busts. You show guys drafted in the second round. Did they move up for them?

Most years there are 2-3 first round picks total. This year's pundit prediction is 4-5 picks in the first round. Most years there are 1 to 2 picks in the top 10 (that is in the top 5 and the 6-10 slots). This year are supposed to be 5. Somehow that doesn't sound right. Year................top 5............... 6-10................. 11 to 32 =========================================== 2018............... 3?..................... 2?..................... 1? 2017 ................1......................... 1..................... 1 2016 ................2.......................... 0................... 0 2015 ................2.......................... 0.................. 0 2014................ 1........................... 0.................. 2 2013 ................1.......................... 0................... 0 2012 ................2.......................... 1................... 1 2011 ................1.......................... 2.................. 1 2010 .................1..........................0................. 1 2009..................2......................... 0................... 1 2008................. 1......................... 0.................. 1 2007 .................1.......................... 0.................. 1 2006 .................1.......................... 1................. 1 2005 .................1.......................... 0................. 2 2004 .................2............................ 1.................. 1 2003 .................1.......................... 1................... 2 2002 ................2............................. 0 .................1 2001 ................1............................... 0.................. 1 2000 .................1.......................... 0...................... 0

The misses are spread out in time. I just have trouble believing that tall those top 6 QB's this year are all franchise guys or even long time starters.

You are the one playing the troll. Do you want one of these guys?

No silly, I said fall to them. That could mean fall to #4.

Here is a list of QB's drafted recently in the first round . #1 Russel 2007 Oakland #1 Couch 1999 Browns #2 Mirer 1993 Seahawks #2 Leaf 1993 Chargers #3 Young 2006 Titans #3 Schuler 1998 Redskins #7 Ware 1990 Lions #16 Emanuel 1993 Bills #22 Quinn 2007 Browns #22 Manziel 2014 Browns #25 Tebow 2010 Broncos Remember that everyone was raving about those guys drafted in the first 3 rounds as "can't miss" guys. If we draft one of those "can't miss" guys and do miss... That is why I don't want to give up this whole draft for a QB.

The Bills just haven't spent draft picks on QB as they should. Many teams with a set QB, draft a 2nd or 3rd round guy, something like, every other year, and sift through these to find and develop the replacement QB. We haven't even done that. For this century: 2017 Peterman 5th round 2016 Jones 4th round 2013 Manual 1st round 2010 Brown 7th round 2007 Edwards 3rd round 2003 Losman 2nd round All we got from this is low grade starters from the 2nd and 3rd round. This year there are 4-6 good QB's and we should be able to get one. But the team has been gutted by the new coaching staff and most successful, early-first-round QB's have come into a pretty viable team. Not into a team without a realistic O-line and without other key pieces. I say don't pay the ransom for the top 4 draft spots and start rebuilding the rest of the team like mad.

He may be wanting to get another multi-year contract in place for 2018-2019. He may be worried about being injured this next year and then having to live off just the millions he already has been paid. If he does another 5 year contract, he will be getting money when he is 9 years into the league. Older baseball players do this type of move.

Working out Darnold might be for several reasons, all at the same time. One is that he might fall to them. Another is that they might trade up to the top 4 for him. Another is that if they "threaten" or make people they "might take him at 1-4", it might get them a better trade deal at a lower pick. It does make everybody else's plans more fuzzy, which will help us.

Hi Dean !

Opps second round Some people can't afford a conventional house. Is that a problem for you?

I think it is a guy who can both rush the QB from the outside AND disrupt the bubble passes to the outside AND can weave around the student-body-left type running plays.