maryland-bills-fan

The defense was pretty good last year. They can probably get a decent DT at #40. Remember that if there are a lot of great defensive linemen out this year.... it might be a good idea to get a high level offensive tackle to neutralize them.

I'm still thinking, based upon what they did last year, that they will go for the highest ceiling player available. This may not jive with what most people think of as the BPA. I think "BPA" has a lot of "BPA who can make an immediate impact as a rookie"- that is not the same thing. A plug-&-play guy might be an instant starter but never make the pro-bowl multiple years. We might even see a linebacker or safety taken and the guy (hopefully) might be a star for a decade, while the plug& play guy has faded away.

I think they are going for a power running game and smart, older running backs know how to find an extra 3 yards on a running play and how to anticipate which big ugly is going to push the defense back 3 yards. This gives a lot of 2nd and 3 situations where Allen can do play action and make the passing game work well.

I don't mean that you can't get really good or even HOF players from the bottom of the draft- it is just that it is less likely. "Craps" (at least when I was younger) was played this way. People bet on PASS or NO PASS. Roll and bounce the dice. If it is a 7 or 11 (baby needs shoes), the PASS bets win, If it is snakeeyes (1 & 1) or boxcars (6 & 6) No PASS wins. Any other result and that die roll number becomes the POINT. Continue rolling. IF you roll the point before rolling a 7, PASS wins, IF you roll a 7 then the NO PASS wins. ........ You worry about what the POINT value is because it determines how likely you are to win or lose. 7= 17% chance of rolling. 2= 3% 3= 6% 4= 8% 5= 11% 6=14% 7= 17% and then 14%, 11%, 8%, 6% and 3%. If you are on PASS and the POINT is "2" you are almost SOL because each roll has a 17% chance of being a "7" but only a 3% chance of being a "2". The lower draft rounds have low numbers for the "POINT" and are less likely to succeed. Another way to look at it is to look up the "DRAFT VALUE CHARTS" and see how the value plummets for the later rounds.

Of course they will use all their draft picks. But you have to consider how many starters you can expect to get from the draft and undrafted college players. 4 a year is probably about right. You have 11 players on offense and 11 on defense. That is 22. 5 + years to stock those 22 positions- if nobody leaves or gets injured. I would be interested to see somebody work out for each team, how many of their players were drafted by that same team. I bet it is 25% or less.

I am expecting to be surprised by the draft. I definately don't think they will be drafting for need or to fill a starting position. I expect them to emphasize the ceiling of these players and not how well they fill an immediate need.

I think the Bills have picked up linemen who are young veterans with higher ceilings than they have been able to show. Several of them were blocked by better players at their positions or by being a bit of a scheme mis-fit for their offensive strategy. You are right, they are all big boys. This immediately suggests, at least to me, that the are looking at a power running game and a smash mouth type offensive line. They also have a big, young QB with a great arm. Sounds like they can pound the ball (with older, smart running backs who might not break away but can follow a big ugly for 6 yards every time) and then have Allen throw a play action long pass to the WR or TE. (Notice they have gottn several straight line speed guys) With that in mind, I have to think that G Jon Feliciano might fit in quite well and would give him a B grade.

Check out what the other teams have been doing in FA. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001021893/article/2019-nfl-free-agency-notable-freeagent-signings-for-each-team I don't know how exact this list is or how up to the minute. If I can count on my fingers okay, then I see the following number of FA's signings. (I am not counting re-signing of FA's with their original team, nor franchise tag players) FA signings.........number of teams with this number ============================================ 0.................5 including the Pats 1................14 2................6 3................3 4...............4 Bills list 7 players on the list which doesn't include OL Long and Feliciano. It is very likely that the Bills will have a new starting TE, OT, OG, C, OG this year. That is, if they don't also pick an OT in the first or second round...... Sounds different to me !!

Well, I agree that there is not very much new under the sun. I guess that Rembrandt didn't do anything new or special because people used brushes and colors before he did. My post was not that any of these good things were brand new, but rather that the combination of things and the overall plan is what is new. Sorry to disagree. I think that picking up 2 interior linemen, a tackle, a tight end, a wide receiver and a cornerback in TWO DAYS, all of who fit the "end of rookie contract backup with a higher ceiling" is a new thing. (Could you show me another team who picked up 6 such players in two days?). This, combined with the deliberate stashing of cap money to fund it, does look to look like a deliberate plan. There were alternatives. Many people were expecting the Bills to go after a few big splash, highest dollar players, rather then emphasizing under-the-radar guys who were broken in in the NFL and have possible upside.............. As to your suggestion that we should not bother with getting 2 studs in the draft, but rather should get 4 or 5- that is a great idea, but it is hard to do.

Notice this about most of these players. They are young veterans, who have made the grade in making a NFL roster, have a good bit of game experience, and were close to growing into a starting position. Let the other teams do the development work to shift thu all the rookies. We can sift thu all these young players and grab ones that look like they have a lot of upside. Combine that with some good older players, who can fill holes for a year or two and we have a roster. Those older players are on short term contracts and will be replaced by our own draft picks or next year's low cost, young veterans.

I think that the first two rounds will be used to get who they think might make a HOF player. Regardless of whether they are already "set" at that position.

Buffalo dumped a lot of players and built up a lot of cap money. Now they are pulling in a lot of free agents like crazy. I think this is the story- its obvious once it is stated but I haven't seen it explicitly presented........ [1] There are tons of college players in the draft but it is a crapshoot in most cases (outside of the first 16 or so picks) to see if those skills and measurables will work out in the NFL. (a) It is uncertain how they will play in the future, when faced with a constant level of higher level competition. What happens when everybody is as fast as you and as strong as you? Some are unable to develop further, so that they can compete with the faster, more physical game. (b) It is uncertain how the young men will change when faced with dazzling success (getting drafted) and more money then they have ever seen. Drugs? Women? Fast times? Ego and drama queens? Some of these people crash and burn. [2] In most positions, it takes time to develop into a pro player. (a) In some positions, the player is on his own island and much of the game they need to bring is already there. Kickers and punters, of course. Wide receivers may have a more complicated route tree to learn, but they are running by themselves, and can be put into the game just to run certain plays. They do learn to make adjustments, but they have been adjusting to their QB since high school. Edge rushers rush the QB first (which is 70% ? of their assignement) and then react to a run play. (b) In other positions, such as offensive line, there are a lot of nuances that take 2-4 years in the pro's to learn. (For example, see the decisions made by Morse in https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/3/12/18261187/all-22-buffalo-bills-free-agent-center-mitch-morse-2019-nfl-free-agency ) [3] Most of the players on the team are NOT drafted in the first round, as nearly sure fire-bets, but come from the 2nd to the 5th round. (53 players on the team and twoe first&second round draft picks a year). What is the best way to sort thu all the uncertainties in the young players and find the "keepers"? [4] What I think the Bills are doing right now are two related things. (a) They are using the other teams development players, players who have been shifted thu the risks above, as a developement minor league. Regardless of where the player was drafted, if he got thu his rookie contract and is still in the NFL, he is a hell of a lot better bet to contribute than a late 1st or 2nd round pick. The training and rookie mistakes are over. He has proven that he can play with the big dogs and keep his head on straight. The Bills can be careful and not just take anybody. The are looking for a guy who is starting calibre and is almost ready to become a starter. The idea profile is somebody who was blocked from being a starter by having better veterans higher up on the depth chart, but is just about ready to break in as a starter themselves....... It takes a good bit of smarts and investigation to identify these players and, looking at the profiles of the FA they have brought in, it looks like they have done a good job........... (b) The second thing that they are doing is also filling some holes with some good veterans who have a year or two left in the tank. They get short 1-3 year contracts, front loaded, and will give good performance until they can be replaced by future draft picks. [5] What does this mean for the 2019 draft? I think the strategy is to use the top of the draft to get two really stud players each year. (Allen and Edmunds). Not exactly Best Player Available, but rather player with a ceiling to be a HOF type player. Those guys are the ones that win superbowls for you. This may involve trading up the 2nd round pick to get the guy with the super-high ceiling. The rest of the draft can be used for BPA, since the combination of young, but seasoned ready-to-be-starters and some old good gap fillers fills out the rest of the roster. They will have no problem, ignoring "positions of need" and might even highly draft players where we think they are already set. DT, OT?

We don't need divas. We need young high-ceiling guys.

nope. too expensive. better to get two high ceiling offensive linemen now, who will contribute 3 years from now.

I would like to see the following, which would be a good way to evaluate the evaluators. My assumption is that teams may have special needs, but that mainly best player available is going to be at lest twice as important and will win out. Thye should be smart enought to know if say DE are good or really need this year and adjust accordingly. [1] Make a list of draft-experts order of players selected.. [2] make a list of players selected in what order. [3] Compare the two. [4] score how successful they were and grade them on various methods. For example: #1 correct draft slot = 5 points,,,,,,,,, +/- 1 gives 4 points, ,,,,,,+/- 3 gives 2 points..............etc. You can try different statistic smoothing function= #n boxcar, triangular, linear etc. to grade how much a "miss' is counted. (background in statistical process control- sorry, but I'm retired now). Maybe I'll try some analysis and write up after the next draft. TRUE how many times do we see a 3rd round pick being the start 3 years down the road. ? If I had more time, I would figure out what round the all pro teams were drafted.

I think the Bills have about $76 million in cap space right now. (correct if I'm wrong- older article looked up). [1] Our first need is offensive line. That will allow the passing game and the running game to work and eat up the clock and save the defense. If the offensive line is very good, we can get by with a good QB and a couple of better than average WR's and RB. [2] Paying thu the nose for a top RB or WR is too many bucks in one basket. You pay that only when you are near to top and can mortgage the future. [3] The top FA offensive linemen go for about $10-12 million apiece- four of them would be about $50 of that $76 million- and that is not a good deal. [4] You can get very good, cheap offensive linemen by drafting several in the first few rounds every year and find the ones that turn out to be good. [5] We have some good young core players on cost effective rookie contracts. They can be tied up now for 5 years more by giving a cost-effective new extended contract- that will soak up some of the extra cap space and set a foundation. what to do? My take: Resign some of the very good young players to long term contracts. A good investment in keeping them around and it will save money compared to bidding for them as a FA or having to more quickly draft a replacement or tred water by getting some older stopgap veteran. Get two good FA offensive linemen. (maybe three). Don't spend top dollar for the top 1 or 2 at a position, but get the 2-5 type guys. This will solidify the line. Draft 2 offensive linemen in the first 4 rounds. Keep doing it until the o-line is in the top 5. Other than that- go for the best player available in the first 4 rounds and after that go for the highest potential player. Do not draft a RB or WR until the later rounds. They need an o-line to shine. Fix that first. Think about trading down the first round pick to get a lower 1st and a second round pick. That is where you can get o-linemen.

Trading for a good but over-the-hill WR is not going to help the team to the SB. We need future draft picks and cap space. What we should do is cycle through other teams practice squads and give tryouts to guys they are trying to hide there. This is sort of like getting mulligans on four 3rd round draft picks.

I was just teasing you.

Yep. You called it. But I didn't notice the Vikings substituting that much in the second half.

Trade down twice.

Hold my beer !!!

Not this time. Remember Maybin? ( By the way, that dude is a great person. He is teaching in an inner city school with a mission). We can't put all the eggs in one basket. Trade the #1 -> #4 pick for a first and second this year plus a first next year. That gives 3 shots and half of an offensive line.

Yes, several empty beers on the table. At a bar. In Maryland. Give me a break.

...and replace him with?

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/report-raiders-have-offers-want-two-first-round-picks-for-khalil-mack-trade-conversation/ They want two first round picks for a guy who is 27. 27 is the peak year for DL and after that they decline. http://socalledfantasyexperts.com/aging-curve-nfl-defensive-players-dl-lb-db If it takes 3 years until the Bills get enough quality players to be looking at deep in the playoffs, he would be 30 or 31. We would also LOSE 2 high draft picks- lets say we would lose two bookend offensive tackles. NOPE !! The team to get him at that cost will be a team near the cusp of the SB, who are peaking and need a boost to get to the top. And a team that are planning on a crash and burn for 2-5 years after that. NOPE