maryland-bills-fan

That math works BUT... The Bills are looking for impact players from the draft. The bottom of the first and the second round will give you (usually) good starting players that can be a foundation for your team, but are not (usually) impact players. Most of the time you have to go no lower than the teens fin the first round for these. Last year you saw two trade ups into the first round. For a QB, you pay thu the nose to move up to the top 10 or higher. Right now we are in a sweet spot, just below the QB zone and can get an impact player at #9.

Why get a tight end at #9? There have been a very few big difference makers at TE. Think of this. At best they get 10 passes a game in their direction. The rest of the time they are a blocker, which you get get a great blocker in the 4th round.

I sweat a lot too. Well that covers about everything that could happen. By the way, I don't have much better a clue either. That would be good. There are a number of small school good defensive linemen and good DL who played for weak, big-time schools and didn't get the credit. With our 4th and 5th round picks we can take some flyers on these, and even a couple of one-trick ponies could be a help.

remember that Seymour guy?

TE can be run by committee. On most plays they are incidental to the point of attack.

To me, he looks skinny. 2" taller, each arm 1" longer, different body frame type.

ferrell

Tight ends. That position can be run by committee with several players with different strong points. The defense can not respond to every substitution and when they do, they give away something when they play to the new TE's strenghts. Don't draft high for a guy who is not at a position where he can dominate and doesn't play most of the time. DT, linebacker OT are the top 3 picks.

Skinny guys get pushed around in the pros

The o line did not help our WR last year

I'm beginning to see LB Dewon White as the first pick for the Bills. We would have a killer defence- they guy is Ray Lewis reborn better. We can add a good DT later in the draft or work out a trade for a 1-3 year rental. BUT we would have a sick linebacker corp for the next decade. He is the biggest upside and biggest high ceiling immediate starter we could get with our #9 pick.

Lets go on what they did last year. They are after impact players. They also did not address DT in FA because of the fact that there are 3 high impact BPA DT's who might be a #9 and at least 3 more almost as good just below. The first pick will be a DT. with very high ceiling and high floor. The second pick will be in the bottom of the first round and will also be an impact player at DE, LB or TE depending upon who is still there. After that they will go for highest ceiling player regardless of floor and almost regardless of position. "BPA" comes in two main flavors: [1] a guy who will be at his ceiling in the first quarter of his rookie season and might be starting and [2] a guy who may not even start his first year but could be a standout impact player his second year. At this stage of the Bills rebuild, we want the second type with a goal of a 12-4 type season and not 9-7 seasons forever.

NO. The new wave is WR by committee with no #1 guy, but rather two #2+ guys and 2 slot guys.

We will not trade up. Notice that there are 3 top notch DT's and we haven't signed any FA DT to date? We pick at 9 and can get our impact player there without a trade up. I see the following: position top 9 pick others close behind ====================================================== DT Williams, Wilkins, Oliver Gary, Simmons LB White <=> Bush OT Taylor Dillard, Ford, Risern, Williams DE Boz, Allen, Sweat Ferrel, Burns QB Murray, Haskins Lock TE Iowa one of two CB/S maybe one? So I see 10 players within the top 9. It is pretty sure that 3 DE, 2 DT, and 2QB will go (or last to #9). That is 7 gone and leaves us with an impact DT, OL or LB. If the Bills brass has a "Mr Wonderful", who is taken prior to us, there are excellent other impact players available for our pick at #9, or (if there is a deal we can't refuse) for a trade down. "Trade downs" combined with some "trades up" with extra ammo, should give another 1st round impact player. We are in a good place without trading up.

Dan Marino has a black book on the NFL ref's.

Realistic. We should go for a few top studs (high ceiling, high floor, high draft position) and then just high ceiling guys for the rest of the draft. You didn't mention that the Bills will be scouring the waiver wires and practice squads very hard. Teams will try to hide very good developing players there and some of our deep backups will be replaced.

Somehow I gotta believe that tight ends from college are not always the way to get tight ends for the pros. In college, they can get along great and look great in highlight films by being just a little better than the linebackers that normally cover them. In the pros, every linebacker is like the guy they saw once a year and who shut them down. If they were that really good, the college would have them as a WR, QB or RB. I wonder if a "position change" project is a good way to get superior tight ends OR if a starting TE should be done by a committee of 2-3 guys. These might be substitued frequently and have different strong points. I wouldn't use a 1st or 2nd round pick on a TE.

Not to make myself a target, but there are different meanings of "BPA". One is "plug and play" - the guy who will be starting and playing good by the 3rd game of the season. It might be a guy who played in pro-type system, is older, and is already at their ceiling. A second is a guy with better physical skills who has to learn the different game and maybe put on age and size. You might not see his best for two or three years. At the top of the draft, you can have them both. Lower down in the draft I think the Bills are looking at drafting the highest ceiling guys and not strongly considering the floor. So in the 6th round, they might draft the 320 pound offensive guard who is a track star and weight lifter from Southwest Montana Bible College rather than the 220 pound plodding adequate 3 year starter from a big name school.

No. They are not wrong "all the time". They are wrong to a big degree about 20% of the time.

I think the best you can do is group players at a position in tiers. At DT I see a top 3, and then a group of 5. If we can get a top 3 DT by staying at #9, let us do that. There is always some uncertainty in how a player develops into a pro. There is always differences in how a player is "good" (example: anchor versus penetrate) and how he complements your other players and overall defense. Apples and oranges, slightly different techniques. We should try to move up our 2nd and/or 3rd round picks to get a difference maker.

Maybe it is just a way of increasing the selling price of our #9 pick. "Gee we really want to move up to #3 (or whatever) rather than trade down. Can you do something to change our mind?"

If you believe the "experts" the top 3 DT's are guys who might come every 2-4 years and go top 3 in the draft. IF that is true, lets get one of them.

I don't think that is the place to spend draft capital. Oliver, Lawence and Williams seem to be way above normal. If 3 DE (edge) and 2 QB go early, we should be able to get one of these without spending anything. Use a 3rd and 4th to move up again into the first and we have two studs.

What have they done with the offensive line? They have brought in veterans who have proven that they can play in the NFL and were close to being starters or ocasional starters. College linemen play a different game than the pros and with very limited contact practice permitted in the pros, it is hard to coach guys up. The guys they brought in have survived all the culling and are better right now than anybody they would have drafted in the second or third round. There are enough of them so that there will should not be any weak spots that the other team's defense can blow up. One weak player or one rookie making mistakes is enough to kill a drive or a QB. All those FA's were brought in as the alternative of drafting 3-4 linemen. I expect them to take one high ceiling/high floor o-lineman in the first 41 picks and at least one high-ceiling/low floor small school o-lineman in the 4th+ round. The top guy may not start this year at all and the other draftees will be on the practice squad along with an UFA. We may pick up another veteran from the waiver wire once the roster cut-downs start- that might even involve a lower round draft pick (5,67) for 2020. Whatever makes the starting line better.

From what they article says it looks like they want more than he is worth. Pass