maryland-bills-fan

Here is that same data plotted up a different way. There is a saying from Mark Twain. "There are lies, damned lies and statistics". This chart is about WHAT PERCENTAGE of players drafted at a position became starters. IT DOES NOT SHOW HOW MANY, players were drafted at that position in each round. I don't have that data but I'll just use the % success rate and make some observations on that. So, if 3 tight ends were drafted in the first round, 2 became starters and 1 didn't. (67% success) If 9 were drafted in the 4th and 9 in the 5th rounds, then one third of them became starters. That is, SIX starters. OR.. to get 2 starters, you would expect to use 6 draft picks in the 4th & 5th. Now let us use some business sense and see how we get the biggest bang for our draft value buck. Cost for a starting TE in the first round? (I'll give you a break and ignore picks 1 to 10, just using the average cost / pick from 11 to 32). 1st round. Spend an average 632 points x 3 and get 2 starters: 632 x 3 /2= 948 points 4th round. Spend an average 71 points x 3 tries and get 1 starter: 71 x 3 /1= 213 points 5th round. Spend an average of 34 points x 3 tries and get 1 starter: 34 x 3 /1 = 102 points. So it is five to ten times more expensive to draft a TE in the first rather than the lower rounds.

He is a singer as well. https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcsaoffblock&p=justin+tucker+singing#id=1&vid=c245e0bcf9677d947bb51bb7aad68337&action=click

Can he score so many points that our inability to get off the field on 3rd down on defense disappears? Can he block the DE/EDGE guy that the OT misses and then go out for a 30 yard pass? Sorry, it is not nonsense. No reason to continue this discussion, I think we both agree.

Please notice that it is a passing league and running backs are now picked in later rounds.

It was more than that. He is fast and a disrupter, but was used as a nose tackle in college. Houston was 8-5 and Oliver played the "0" technique lined up on the center. So he got blocked immediatley and double teamed a lot. He got little help. No DT or DE from Houston is listed in the top 30 (walter football) and the ILB Emoke Egbole, who played behind him, came in at #22. (round 5-7?).

I posted this above. Look at this last college year. He did not play against top notch linebackers and only two games against guys who have some chance of making the NFL. They lost to Wisconsin, by the way. college OLB #17 Andre Van Ginkel Wisconsin round 5-7 #18 R. Connelly Wisconsin round 5-7 college ILB #7 Blake Cashman, Minnesota round 3-5 #11 T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin round 3-5

He might be, BUT, we are not real strong in the 3 technique tackle he might be playing along side. If we had a real disrupting guy like Oliver there, I think you are right. For the life of me, I don't see how we can draft them both at #9.

With Jim Kelly, T.Thomas and Lofton/Reed/Tasker, there were not that many balls left over for the TE.

Realistically Oliver or White. 2nd round an offensive tackle or DT depending upon what happened in the first round.

You failed to notice that Hockenson's performance was all against linebackers who will probably not make a NFL roster. Film showing wonderful things needs to consider that it shows the performance against relatively slower linebackers who don't react as quickly as the best linebackers. When you watch film, you don't see the absolute speeds but the relative speeds of those players.

Yes. I'm an old guy. If you put me in a football uniform and had me run pass patterns against an even older slower guy, I might look pretty good. Be aware of what most nfl rookies say. They can't believe the speed of the pro game. Part of that is speed and part of that is that the players are all smart and instictive.

Have you ever considered that: #1 the Iowa tight ends got more catches and more targets then ALL their wide receivers. #2 they mostly were playing against college linebackers who ever will play in the NFL. Look at their schedule last year: and look at when they played against. Here are the best linebackers they played. How will they do when the LB's are smarter and a half second faster in the 40? Using Walter Football college OLB #17 Andre Van Ginkel Wisconsin round 5-7 #18 R. Connelly Wisconsin round 5-7 college ILB #7 Blake Cashman, Minnesota round 3-5 #11 T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin round 3-5 By the way, the success rates of drafted LB making the nlf by round is approximately round success % 3 34% 4 16% 5 4% 6 5% 7 2% Might you suspect that a team who throws more to the TE than all the WR is runnng a gimmic offense? Does that translate to the pros?

Gee, you forgot to consider whether these were pretty damn good offensive teams BEFORE they got this TE, or did the TE make them an offensive juggernaught. A high draft pick TE, is a luxury AFTER you get the rest right. High grade OT before spending a high 1st pick on a TE.

The OP cautioned that it might take 2-5 years before the TE understands the pro game and develops the instinctive smarts to be good at blocking edge rushers, blitzing (or not blitzing) linebackers, finding the soft spots in zones and analyzing what defense is actually being played (versus 'shown'), so they can find the seam and not screw their QB. Are you willing to wait 3 or more years for this? College offenses are usually spread offenses and the defenses are built to stop them. The TE has a whole new learning curve. Might it be better to use more mature players here? Yes you can. Draft a good guy in a later round and get him trained. Also, substitue TE's who have different performance envelopes and run plays that use their best abilities. You get a mismatch because the LB/safeties have to be generalists because they have to defend against run/short pass/ bump for long pass on every play. IF you get a great DE/DT/LB who is better.

As to trading back. I heard that the thought process is: we have 5 guys ranking about even when our pick comes up. Somebody 5 picks below us wants to move up to our spot. One of those 5 guys will be there if we trade down. So we trade down. We still get the same guy we might have drafted at #9 but get the equivelent of player #68 which is the fourth pick in the 3rd round. We might be able to package that 3rd pick and our 2nd round pick to get #25 in the first round. That works for me.

There seems to be a bit of quality in the 3, 4 , 5rounds in offensive linemen and tight ends. Get impact players, DT LB in the early rounds and get high ceiling O-lne/TE in the later rounds. Let those o-linemen sit for a year or two and learn how to play the pro game and then ease them into the o-line. Teamwork and experience is what makes a o line.

It would be a best player available. People gotta realize how hard it is to play linebacker. They have to be able to shed blocks from 230 o-linemen. They have to be able to run down and tackle speedy running backs and also not get juked by jiggerbug types. They have to take big fullbacks to the ground. They have to stay with receiving running backs and tight ends all over the field. They have to be able to defend slot receivers in the short zones. Most important, they have to figure out what the play is, where the ball is going and sniff out deception on plays. They are the primary ones that play-calling is trying to neutralize. Remember that the offense can substitute and put in players who are strong in one area (think, big FB, good pass catching RB, fast outside runner, shifty block follower) BUT the LB is pretty much going to be the same guy. Always 2 or 3 on the field. Many defensive players have to do fewer things. An 'EDGE" player just rushes the passer and even most ignores the "setting of the edge" to turn a running play inside. You CAN get an incomplete DE to do only that and can draft one in the later round.(Jaylon Fergenson)

Oliver and then White. No tight end- that can be done by committee. No EDGE player, you can draft a player in the 3rd to do the one trick pony job on a passing down. (Most people can figure out that 3rd and 8 or 11 is going to see a pass rush).

You get it !!! Put the young QB together with guys who know where they are supposed to be. We DON'T want Allen and the rookie, TE, RB, WR both to be wondering....."guess, they changed the defense, is he going to go to the right spot, or isn't he attune yet to what is going on?" Some for the offensive line working together.

That would be okay but I would just as soon have one of the players who might more be a very top guy

We did good to stay away from this.

Both of you. In the words of the immortal Archy Bunker "STIFLE".

I just know that they are going to keep us suffering. "We have a trade to announce !! The Bills have traded down from #9 to #11 to the Cincinni Bengels. They exchange the 9th and 11th picks and the Bills pick up the Bengals 4th round pick" okay, I wait to go the the bathroom and see who they take at #11 "Alert , we have just heard that the Buffalo Bills and the Washington Redskins have exchanged first round draft picks. In compensation, the Bills will be receiving Washington's 3rd round draft pick!" Okay, time for a piss break and another beer. Two slices of pizza later.... "We have another Buffalo Bills trade !! They have traded Washingtons Draft pick with the #24th pick that The Raiders received from the Bears. Buffalo gets the Raider's 3rd round draft pick" Okay at this point I am pissed as hell and let my wife put on her hospital drama show. For an hour. Tuning back later... There is no further mention of the Buffalo Bills for at least the next 90 minutes. Almost, no mention. Every couple of minutes the announcers say things like "Boy this is a wild night" and "Who would have expected the Bills to pull off the deal they did !!?" and "Well, it is no going to be an entirely new era in Buffalo" and other &%^$&& Scheiss like that without ever mentioning what happened. My internet goes down and the wife and the dog go to the upstairs bedroom and hide. Yep, you heard it hear first.

That is two top D-linemen with medical issues.

Tthere is another thread about the bills draft a LB at 9. White is the next Ray Lewis.