maryland-bills-fan

Because we can get an upgrade on Singletary and have two good backs to share the workload. There are about 130 scrimmage plays in a game, so 65 per team and about 30 runs per team. That is a lot of touches- you want the best out of those. We do not have a backup RB and have a chance at a good run this year. If Singletary is hurt or injured, your plan has those 30 runs a game being handled by the 160th best player in the draft. No thank you. This year, because of all the feeling of so many good QB, OT, and DE, we can get a top notch stud as RB even with our 2nd round pick & maybe a trade up. ... Remember TT was backed up by K.Davis, who would have been a starter on a lot of teams back then.

"....The Bills finished 12th in the League last year with 44 sacks. For reference, the top squad was Pittsburgh with 54..." That is only a difference of 10 sacks over 16 + games. Sorry, but I wonder if the extra sack might be balanced out by the opposing offense getting 10 extra big chunk plays by running inside the tackle when the DE took a wide loop, or slipping a TE into that vacated part of the field. or a QB scramble or a QB leaving the pocket & breaking down the pass defense structure to find somebody open. Maybe we could compare Buffalo and Pittsburg passing defense in 2019. Bills 3123 yards,,, Steelers 3113 yards. Essentially the same. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm A DE can not both strongly rush the passer AND control his gap and area of the field.

Who knows how he will turn out. He did have one play where he used his jets and made a hell of a run. Can he learn the game and instincts so "late" in life?

Yes. Getting guys who have the physical tools AND work ethic to improve gives a chance of developing a high calibre player out of a low round draft pick. I like the approach. Much better than just looking for a plug-and-play backup who are already at their limit.

I was comparing him to a blocking fullback or a TE lined up in the backfield. I don't remember him pancaking a DE.

Well, Do you really think that there are 10 defensive ends and offensive tackles out there this year? I can not see taking the 10th best defensive end and seeing him buried on the practice squad or being a backup to a 3 or4 man rotation at DE. A RB can play right away and a top one might become the starter or, at least, take a third of the running play snaps. There are about 130 plays a game- maybe 50 offensive scrimage plays a game, maybe 20 to 25 running plays... so you might expect this guy might get 7 or 8 carries a game. He will be the only one carrying the ball on those plays. A back up DE might get 3-4 plays a game and he is only one of 11 defenders. Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick?

Yep. Draft superior players in the first , second and sometimes 3rd round,,, then go after guys who have the potential to also become superior players- rather than draft guys who will be adequate backups.

Remember that this may be our year and we need a second very good back, not a fill in. I think there are 5 worthy backs who could push Singletary for a start. Taylor,,,....Swift....Dobbins,,,...,,Edwards-Helaire and Aken. I think we could get one of them at #54, Beane probably has his list of what he wants, and maybe one that he doesn't want. He might move up from our 2nd round pick to get his guy. Remember that we had TThomas and Kennith Davis in the Jim Kelly days. He was a good player in his own rights. "...Considered a potential first-round draft pick in the 1986 NFL Draft by Mel Kiper and Gil Brandt,[1] Davis decided to join the NFL one year early after his suspension from TCU. However, he was denied as he had already played one game that year; under the "Red Grange Rule", players a...... .....With the Bills, Davis proved to be a superb complement to star running back Thurman Thomas, and a great asset to the team overall. In 1990, he rushed for 302 yards on just 64 carries (a 4.7 yards per carry average), caught 9 passes for 78 yards, and scored 5 touchdowns, assisting his team to Super Bowl XXV, where they lost to the New York Giants. In the game, Davis rushed for 4 yards and caught 2 passes for 23 yards. The following season, he rushed for 624 yards, caught 20 passes for 118 yards, returned 4 kickoffs for 73 yards, and assisted Buffalo to their second consecutive Super Bowl appearance.......In 1992, Davis had the best season of his career. He rushed for 613 yards, caught 15 passes for 80 yards, returned 14 kickoffs for 251 yards, and scored a career-high 6 touchdowns. But he is best remembered for his superb performance in the post season. In Buffalo's wild card game against the Houston Oilers, Thomas was knocked out of the game early with a hip injury, and Houston built up a 28–3 first half lead. Then, they increased it to 35–3 early in the third quarter when backup quarterback Frank Reich's pass was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. But in what became known as The Comeback, Buffalo stormed back and won the game 41–38 in overtime; the rally from the 32-point deficit[8] was the largest comeback in NFL history. Davis was instrumental in the Bills victory, rushing for 68 yards, catching 2 passes for 25 yards, and scoring the first touchdown of the game for Buffalo.....https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Davis_(American_football) There is a place for another superior RB on Buffalo's roster. I bet he will get more touches of the football than a the rookie 12th DE or 10th WR , which is what else we might draft at #54 (note to younger Bills fans. Sorry to bring up all this old history, but you might not know the Bills were in the super bowl a couple of times)

Basically we could turn #54 into #54 R2 stay pat #45 R2, R4, R5 #38 R2 R3 #33 R2 R3 R4 #31 R2 R3 2021 R2 Taylor might be top 20. Dobbins and Aken are more likely

He seems to have good "measurables" and showed some skills. The lines usually require a few years of experience to develop a good player. Maybe an exception is a one-trick pony who just pass rushes. The Bills have brought in good veterans to rotate and start. This will give Johnson a chance to learn and develop. We probably will not see enough of him in real live play against starting quality opposition, except some in preseason. Don't know. We also have Vosean Joseph out of Florida, who is in a similar situation. Looks like a superior athlete but in college looked a little lost playing LB. 5th round pick, but might develop into something special.

I see your point, but I do not see Beane yet picking up the backup RB, or new starter and FA is sort-of over. I see three to five very good RB's and we should be able to get a top 3 guy at #54. These guys should be top 10 players at RB within 3 years or so. It just looks like the best way to improve the team the most with that pick. We will revisit at the end of next month to see how our guesses worked out. Another thought... the BPA at #54 may just well be a RB and we need a top quality 2nd running back. Walter football 3-24-20 (just for example but a typical draft guess list) has the following number of positions drafted before our #54 WR 9 OT 8 DE 7 IOL QB 5 CB S 4 and LB DT & RB 3. So if we go Edge, then we are getting the 8th best guy,,,, if we go WR we are getting the 10th best guy ... if we go RB we are getting the 4th best guy. Walter football has Swift going at #14 (Tampa).....Taylor going #18 (Miami) ...... Dobbins going #37(Detriot) .....and Akers going just behind us at #55 (Baltimore). I think we upgrade by going with the 3rd best player at a position rather than the 10th or 8th best player. Well, we will see.

There are a number of players who can play edge at a high level. We only have only one RB who can play at a high level and the depth there immediately goes down several notches. We can almost always get good veterans to play defensive end and with a heavy rotation, we can match up skills and fresh legs with the distance/down requirement. If it is 3rd and 25 we can put in a smaller DE to rush, and 3rd and goal at the 2, would be a bigger guy. ... Teams use running plays between 33% to 55% of the time, as well as being a pass receiver. He handles the ball the most, just behind the center and QB. We can't ignore that.

I disagree with your approach. Beane's approach to the top of the draft has NOT been to go for value in the draft that will give you adequate backups. He traded up in the first two rounds the last two years to try to get studs. Allen & Edwards, and Oliver & Ford. This year he already got Diggs with the first pick. The depth chart has Patrick DiMarco Taiwan Jones* Devin Singletary Christian Wade T.J. Yeldon at running back. We need another starting level guy to share the position. Another stud player to come in. QB, RB, Kicker, punter are positions that don't come in "twos". LG can swing to RG. FS can play SS. CB1 and CB3 can switch. If Singletary goes down, we can't replace him with a TE.

I like a guy who can catch the ball and make our WR even more effective. But looking at Aiken and how he seems to be undervalued by many draftniks,,,,maybe we can get him at 54 without any tradeups and then add picks to our 3rd round pick to get some guy we really want. It doesn't hurt that he has a bit more size. I guess I should look up more stuf to compare Aiken, EH and Dobbins. Changing my minds. (both of them)

Swift 5-8 212 4.48 Taylor 5-10 226 4.39 Edward-H 5-7 209 4.50 Moss 5-9 233 4.65 Dobbins 5-9 210 4.50 Akers 5-10 213 4.47 I could go for Akers, why do most sites consider him a round 2-3 type pick and others a 1 or a 1.2 pick? His highlights look like he has vision and useful speed. It looks like we could get him with our #54 pick and then use 4th+ picks to move up our 3rd round pick.

I guess there are two ways to approach it. If you have two backs that are similar there are some good things. One good thing is that you can change players during a game and not tip your hand. Another good thing is that if the starter goes down, you don't have to redo you playbook. ... ... A bad thing is that you may lack the big bruiser for goal line plays and short yardage. ... .... Also remember you can get big bruiser guys from FA or even use a tight end in the backfield.

Thomas was not a great pass blocker. He WAS great at chipping and then sneaking behind the defensive line and taking a short pass, beating the linebacker and getting a big chunk. With the 3 good wide receivers and some pass catching from the TE, there will be plenty of room for such plays.

Good point. Hope one of the top 3 drops to us.

Sorry if people got misled by the title- I was just stating the position of what I would like. If anyone thinks that I have special, insider information, well send me a hundred bucks for some stock tips. [mod edit: title has been modified at OP's request]

I think there is a difference in how Beane does things from what you might be saying. "Young quality depth" might mean a good player, who might develop into a starter but will likely be a replacement for a couple of games if the starter goes down with an injury. .... I think Beane's method is to look for possible pro-bowlers with every draft pick, even though they may flame out. ..... So if the choice was 60% success as a career backup, 10% chance as a starter and 2% chance at all pro ....VERSUS 30% backup, 10% starter, 5% as all pro..... (or something like that) then he would take the latter. ... Reasoning is that if you can add 2 all-pros rather than 15 backups, you go for the all-pro players who can get you into the playoffs. You can get tested and known quality backups from the FA wire.

I don't think there is a clear gut, gotta-have player there.

Looking good. Better than a top 15 draft pick.

Dobbins is running around 50 to 60 in many draft predictions and is a clear top 3 RB. I think we trade up a few and take him OR we take the BPA at 54 and trade up from the 3rd to get Edwards-Helaire. He looks a lot like TT.

who dat? What we lack is another running back. We have no depth there and are an injury away from playing somebody who couldn't play last year, some other team's discard or a street free agent. If you look at a number of mock drafts, we should be able to get at least the second RB selection. Especially with a modest trade up. (I got a post on this elsewhere on this). I'm looking for a Thomas type guy. It is the only position where there is not a clear and good backup. We can pick up the bruising FB type guy anywhere for cheap.