maryland-bills-fan

I am looking at one of the top 3 or, at worst, one of the top 5-6 to be a 1a/1b running back. One of the top 3 would likely be the 1a by the middle of the season. It might be hard to decide who the starter was based upon the number of plays.

Interesting. He is like 6th on my list and there are several mocks with him going to the Bills in the 3rd round. He is not much bigger than some of the others but gets praised for being a powerful runner- more like a fullback. What don't you like about hm?

Beane says they need more "touchdown makers". Are we going to get a starting WR at #54? Nope. Can't get TD's sitting on the bench. DE? I couldn't find any DE who scored a TD last year. Of the top 50 tacklers, 3 LB and 1 S scored TD.s No DE's. ......Let's put our thinking caps on. We have our starting WR on the team already and they touch the ball a lot....Hmmmmmm. Tight ends get passed to sometimes but we have a decent bunch of them, there is no superman in the draft, and they seldom score except as an almost gadget play in the red zone...... Hmmm Allen is already on the team as the QB..........WAIT I got it !! We are going to draft a CENTER because he handles the ball the most !! A quick 4.55 guy and the QB handback to the center will be our bread and butter play. !!...... or maybe a top notch RB? https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=DEFENSE&sortOrder=0&page=1

How many can you play at one time? The o-lineman at #54 would be about the 11th OT or 8th interior lineman.

Glad to hear from someone who saw him a lot. Of the top 5, he is the most likely to be available at #54 or even (on maybe a quarter of the mocks) 5-10 picks below #54.

...and I think that Beane has figured out that there are 3 sure fire "difference makers" at RB this year and 2 maybe 3 that are in a very good second tier. I think he went about the FA pickups, getting some veteran quality at the positions that were weak and is planning on having a shot at one of those studs at #54 or by trading up from there (like he has done most of the time on the first 3 picks). [[He already traded up in the first round ( in effect) to get a top 20 receiver- I wonder how many WR's drafted in the first round will be better than that in 2020-21. He shows (to me) that the draft is where you mover up for stars and even gamble with lower picks for stars ]].... .... ... If the 3 studs are gone, maybe one of the next 2 or 3 might still be a lot better than the draftniks think or they can take BPA like LB Queen or Baun. We could than take a JAG RB in the third and hope for the best..

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/sacks-per-game https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2868989-nfl-power-rankings-final-2019-20-regular-season-review-and-standings Let's not get too much in love with sack totals. Sacks are exciting plays. A play with QB pressure and tight defense that winds up with a safe incomplete pass are not. Some teams really tee off on a poor team when they are way ahead and don't have to worry about a 20 yard running play with the clock running. Here is a partial list of 2019 sack totals and a power ranking of teams at the end of the year. team sack per game ranking at end of year (8 teams only) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ pitt 3.4 carolina 3.3 san fran 3.2 2 new orlean 3.2 3 LA 3.1 Buffalo 3.0 Minni 2.9 8 Tampa 2.9 Jack 2.9 Wash 2.9 KC 2.8 4 Pats 2.8 GB 2.6 5 Philli 2.6 Tenn 2.6 Indi 2.6 ………… Baltimore 2.2 1 Seattle 2.2 7

No. I would have to look at most of the games for each player to feel that I had a chance of getting it right. Not just the highlight reel, but the time they had a bad game or a game where they were just okay and made mistakes or were lazy. .. What I do at best is look at 5-10 mock drafts and see who is +- 8/-5 picks or so from the Bills draft picks to see who might be in play. I feel this gives some sense of "BPA" around that area. If the Bills have a need at a position, then look at those guys in more detail themselves and at lists of player ranking at that posiiton. I hope to see a higher ranked player fall to the Bills pick. ... ... I think that in his earlier years at the Bills, had a lot of freedom to pick any position he wanted, because there were not valuable people blocking any position. So he looked for players who could be real difference makers and maybe not immediate contributors and spent low round draft picks to move up for them. Now he has to consider who is already on the roster and where the roster needs upgrading. We are NOT going QB in round 2 this year.

You forget TT and Davis. You ignore that we are one hit away from having a low round draft pick or a FA who everyone else didn't want being the ball carrier. RB 1a and 1b will each carry the ball about 20-40% of the time. Let's just ignore that.

Bruce Smith at #54 !!! Why buy a fairlane when you can get a corvette?

You are missing the fact that good teams now use two running backs and do not have two. We can upgrade our RB in this draft. Beane is smarter than me or you. Notice that he has brought in veterans at EDGE, OT, and CB but not an old worn out RB He has in the last three drafts, traded up to get quality at QB, MLB, OT and TE. All the stars line up. He is going to find a way to get a top 5 RB, and my only wonder is which one he thinks is the best.

Come on now. Which is a better player, the 1-3th running back or the 12th defensive end? Do you really think that Bruce Smith is going to be there at #54?. IF we draft a DE, he may not even see the field unless it is mop up time in games that are out of reach. The 1a or 1b running back will get about 12 carries a game. Geesh !!!! Talk about drafting for need!! DE is not even a need. It is a speculative pick on a guy who is a 1 in shot at even being on the roster in two years. DO NOT STOCKPILE AVERAGE QUALITY BACKUPS.

We can live if a CB goes down. We are dead if Singletary goes down. Beane filled most holes in the roster in FA because he felt he could get his second running back in the draft at #54. One of the top 5 should be there or one of the top 3 with a modest trade up. There is nothing wrong with getting a better player than Singletary. That thought seems to be what really upset some people on this site. .... .... But then, I could by a Ford Pinto for $5 and that would be a REAL good deal.

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/11/14/18094875/new-orleans-saints-screen-pass-nfl-offenses-cowboys-ezekiel-elliott I can find that 10% of the Bills passes were towards the RB, but can't find how many screen passes were thrown. I don't remember many. 't

I like all that. I think the bigger improvement is that we have Brown and Diggs, and both of them are guys that the other team would like to double cover or at least have a safety over the top. (and you can do route combinations that would force a double cover). That puts the slot guy against a linebacker, which is a mismatch in our favor, so the other defense has to drop a linebacker and put in another defensive back. What works on first down against 5DB, 2LB and 4 DL- the running game.

We are NOT looking for a backup for Singletary. We are looking to get ourselves into where todays NFL football is with respect to running backs AND for a team that should be planning a long run in the playoffs. You need a RB 1a and RB 1b. ... ... At #54 we can get that guy and likely he will be better than Singletary. (Yes, Virginia, there are running backs better than Singletary).

DRAFT PICK # PICKED POINTS CASE1 CASE 2 CASE 3 CASE 4 ROUND 2 54 360 YES YES YES YES ROUND 3 86 160 YES YES x YES ROUND 4 118 58 x YES YES x ROUND 5 150 31 x x YES x #2 2021 #54? 180 x x x YES =========================================================================== We get: #38 #33 #45 #31 Move up= 16 21 9 23

Why not get a stud game changer rather than sloppy seconds... or tenths?

What I mean is that if you fish in the 10 guys who "were not important enough for their team to franchise them" pond or even offer them a good contract... you can get a good solid just another guy, who will do an okay job. Or maybe a real good (3x) okay job. What we can and should get is somebody who will be a couple of levels above that and scare the other defensive coordinators. There are 3 guys who could be that and another 2-3 who have a good chance to be that guy. Remember that the RB gets the ball on about half or a quarter of the offensive plays. Why not make that something else then plain vanilla? Also rookie contracts are cheap.

What about the 4 games when Singleton was out with a hammie. Do we get a mulligan on those games? Do your remember Davis getting us into the SuperBowl with the comeback against Houston? The 10th defensive end in the draft is going to be a game changer? Why didn't the other 53 picks grab that guy?

No, you look at the draft and who you might get, fill the other holes with FA, and then get a real game changer cheap in the draft. go kick a cactus.

Here is a concept that I am being to be able to articulate. Beane is using the cap money to get good playoers to fill the needs of the team in free agency. He is good at seeing quality, often buried in other teams depth sand grabbing the right guys. BelliCheck was good at that. Beane is was well. ONCE he fills as many holes as possible with FA, then he goes to the draft and gets the players he didn't get in FA and will move up to get them. HE ALSO DOES IT THE OTHER WAY AROUND. He sees where we are going to draft, goes over who will likely be at our pick or that we can get with a trade up, and then goes shopping in FA for the guys to improve the other positions that need upgrading. The nice thing about this second method (and they try out both approaches to see which works best), is that you can concentrate on getting real game changers in the draft AND get them with rookie contracts. THAT is where we are right now. Gee, no long-in-the tooth runningback? Oh, we are going to show everyone how smart we are and get a 3rd round quality RB in the 6th round. (BS)

When you pay cheap, you get cheap. Even if it is a good deal and investment, 3 times and average player gives you just a better average player. We need to get a guy at Rnning Back who other teams have to scheme against. That makes all the WR look better if it keeps the LB shallow and the safeties keeping an eye on the line of scrimage. How would you like to be playing CB, when the WR, instead of making a break, plows into you and drives you into the ground when it is a run.? The 10th edge rusher in draft is not going to take playing time from the guys already on the roster. There are NOT a dozen Bruce Smiths in the draft this year. Take that to the bank.

As I find more about the RB's, I'm finding this knock on Akers. Although he is a good physical specimen and got good production the fact that he played on a college team without a great QB and with a poor offensive line both hurts and helps the estimate of how he would do in the pro's. Taking those views as two extremes: [1] imagine how much better he would have done with a real OL? [2] he doesn't know how to run behind a real offensive line and maybe he can't learn. .... He may not have learned how to use good offensive linemen to set up their blocks to break loose and use patience to let plays develop before making his move. Can he still learn this? He may not take care of the ball well and has never had to learn to pass block- on a poorer team they didn't waste him doing that. .... He might come with some risks. Remember EJ who on paper was a great QB for his college, but was a step slow in processing information in the pros. Could be great. Could be a flop/

With all due resptect lets play out what is very likely to happen......"Tiny" Singletary is out for4 games like he was last year, the load has to be carried by a 5th rounder? There are about 130 scrimmage plays in a game. Say 65 offensive. Say 33 run and 33 pass. So for 33 plays you want to have a "value" pick from Dollar General Store carrying the ball for the Bills? A third string cornerack or a fourth string DE on the bench is not going to help us then.