maryland-bills-fan

Draft history of the Bills for the last 3 years. ================================================================================== 2017 Round 1 pick 27 ……….. Tre White. Bills trade down from 10 to 27 and get KC’s 2018 #1 pick. We get a starter as expected this high in the draft. The cupboard is bare- get a 1st round pick player, a #1 for next year’s QB and a 3rd round pick (used to move up) Round 2 pick 5 ………. Zay Jones TRADED UP. Used 3rd round pick to move up to take 4th best receiver in draft Round 2 pick 31 ……. Darold Dawkins. TRADED UP. Used 3rd round pick and both of 5th round picks to get “one of the last offensive linemen with obvious starting potential as a rookie” Round 3 NO PICKS SPENT THESE PICKS TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS Round 4 NO PICKS SPENT THIS PICK TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS Round 5, Pick 19 Matt Milano, LB, Boston College. They took a chance on a high upside guy. Picked at #163, whereas most expectations had him as a #229 Round 5, Pick 28 Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh Low, “need a guy pick”. No longer around. Round 6, Pick 11 Tanner Vallejo, LB, Boise State Low, “need a guy pick”. No longer around. 2018 Round 1 pick 7 Josh Allen. TRADED UP . Used two second round draft picks to move up from #12 to #7 Round 1 pick 16 Tremain Edwards TRADED UP. Used a 3rd round pick (got a 5th back) to move up from 22 to 16. Round 2 NO PICKS SPENT THESE PICKS TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS Round 3 (96) Harrison Philllips DT. BPA and also a need because of Kyle Williams retirement Round 4 (121) Taron Johnson CB nickel CB Often ranked as #163 so draft a round early Round 5 (154) Siran Neal CB backup nickel CB Played CB, S and LB in college Round 5 (166) Wyatt Teller G low round o-lineman. Traded away. Round 6 (187) RR McCloud WR 4th string WR and gadget play Round 7 (255) Austin Proehl WR gone 2019 Round 1 pick 9 Ed Oliver DT We could have used a DE here but went with BPA who could be special at DT. Round 2 pick 6 Cody Ford G TRADED UP. Used a 5th round pick (15) to move up from #40 to #38. Round 3 pick 10 Singletary RB To share touches with HOF Mike McCoy. 4th RB selected. Round 3 (96) Dawson Knox TE TRADED UP. Used both 4th round picks (112, 131) Round 4 NO PICKS SPENT THESE PICKS TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT TO GET SUPERIOR PLAYERS Round 5 (147) Vosean Josephy LB. Rated maybe 9th best LB, a 3-4 round guy. Drafted on potential, needs to grow. Injured 2019. “red shirt” ? Round 6 (181) Jaquan Johnson S 2nd string strong safety Round 7 (225) Darrly Johnson LB gone OPPS. This guy is the DE Daryl Johnson and he is still on the team as a good potential player. Round 7 (228) Sweeney TE 4th string TE ================================================================================= 2020 so far Round 1 Stefon Diggs WR TRADED UP Bills used their R1(#22), 2021 R4(?), R5 (155) and R6(207) picks . They got a number one receiver, which is a better WR then they could have gotten in the 2020 draft. Round 2 (#54) Round 3 (#86) Round 4 (#128) Round 5 (#155) 4 NO PICK SPENT PICK TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT Round 5 (#167) Round 6 (#188) Round 6 (#201) NO PICK SPENT PICK TO MOVE UP IN DRAFT Round 7 (#239) ===================================================================== Okay. In 2017, 2018 2019 Beane has the following record in the first three rounds. 2017: 2 of 3 picks were traded up 2018: 2 of 2 picks were traded up 2019: 2 of 4 picks were traded up 6 of 9 traded up= 66%. He is one for 3 this year and we haven’t even gotten to the draft yet. Notice that every year, he has traded up twice in the top of the draft? Notice that he talks about “touchdown makers” and “difference makers”. Notice that the defense has been filled up in free agency and the offensive line has been also had veterans added?

Posted this elsewhere. We have several, slightly different threads on running backs and what to do with our #54 pick.

I looked at footballousiders who did a ranking of 2019 RB's. Of the top 45, Singletary was #20 and Gore was #44. I would like our RB to be in the top 10.https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

Here is a running back rating list from FootBall Outsiders. “Running backs are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the performance on plays where this RB carried/caught the ball compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage” Let’s look at the top 10 RB’s and then how the Bills 2019 guys fit it. Name team drafted college TOP 10 E Elliot Dallas R1 4 Ohio State C McCaffrey Carolina R1 8 Stanford M.Ingram Baltimore R1 28 Alabama A. Jones Green Bay R5 182 Texas El-Paso K Drake Tampa R3 73 Alabama D Henry Ten R2 45 Alabama R. Mostert SF UFA Purdue D Cook Minn R2 41 Florida State N. Chubb Cleveland R2 35 Georgia C Carson Seattle R7 299 Ok. State …… Number 20 D Singletary Buffalo R3 74 Florida Atlantic Number 44 F Gore Buffalo R3 65 Miami OK. Six of the top ten were drafted in the first two rounds. If you want a difference maker that is your best bet to get a difference maker. I want the Bills to get to the SB, I do not want to watch a bargain basement team just fight for a playoff spot some years. The Bills have 19 teams ahead of them in the RB listing. Gore is next to the bottom and is gone in 2020. If we really want to win, we should be at least in the top ten. Yeldon is not that guy. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019

Heh? "Basically our options for moving up are as follows. Of course you have to find a partner to dance. #54 R2 pick and stay pat...................... Could get Dobbins. ..............Probably get EH or Akers " Well, we have to agree to disagree. JAG who can play RB or a superior player. A cost effective chevee or a corvette? I like what Beane has been doing. He has NOT been afraid to spend lower draft picks to move up and get a superior player. Superior players mean that you win more individual battles on the field and 5-6 of them means a win rather than a close loss.

I agree. Every good college player can get together a highlight video and look like superman. The defenders are smaller and slower and dumber than the average player that they will work against in the pros. It is hard for us non-experts to figure things out- the pro scouts have enough knowledge to know the level of opposition they faced and have better opinions. But, then there is the argument that if the newbie is too different, it will restrict the type of plays we can run and tip our hand on what play is coming. Also if the 1a goes down, then the entire offense has to be altered. I think there should be quite a bit of overlap in abilities.

I think that quick feet don't help that much if you are in very tight spaces and the defense is thick because they are only defending a couple of yards of territory. That is why you have a fullback bruiser or line a tight end up in the backfield or use your TE/LB sized QB.

There is a "Mock with Dobbins in second" and on the end of page 3 and start of page 4, I have copied some evaluations of the top running back candidates. Swidft Taylor and Dobbins should be gone by #54 . The top 3-5 look superior to the people after them. We should get a stud who can do more than be JAG and can scare other teams into scheming against the RB. The free agents that are available are JAG, while the top 5 RB's from the draft are an upgrade on Singletary. You don't win a SB, by filling the roster (and players who will even play significant number of plays), with a cost effective guy. You beat other teams by having much better players, not adequate 3rd stringers.

My opinion is that the mock drafts indicate that there are good running backs that the professional NFL teams will draft in the first, second and third round. I guess, somehow, we have a lot of armchair experts, whose job doesn't require them to make right decisions about their teams, who are so much smarter. I just wonder why they haven't been offered 6 figure salary jobs with NFL front offices yet. Of course. Every year, 8 punters are drafted before the first running back.

Part of a post in thread "for those who want a RB in the first few rounds": looking at RB in 10 mock drafts ......

https://walterfootball.com/scoutingreports.php DOBBINS “…There is no doubt Dobbins has the ability to be a NFL running back with a skill set to be in contention as a three-down starter early in his pro career. The first trait that generates a lot of talk about Dobbins is his acceleration, as he has a quick first step to hit the hole and a second gear to burst to the second level of the defense. In the open field, Dobbins can rip off yards in chunks and is a threat to turn ordinary carries into big gains. Aside from his quickness, Dobbins is a natural runner with instincts. He has excellent vision and anticipation to follow his line before bursting downhill after quickly anticipating where a hole is about to open. On top of his feel for running with the ball, Dobbins has a compact build that provides him with some power to run through tackles and pick up yards after contact. He has plus balance to maintain his feet after getting hit by defenders, and he uses his stature to run through would-be tacklers. Dobbins has some moves, quick feet, and elusiveness in the open field. His strength and build make him a quality short-yardage runner as well. One trait that really will get evaluators excited is Dobbins' ability as a receiver. He is very dangerous at running wheel routes, as he is fluid in space and has shown tremendous hands to make some difficult catches downfield. He makes some pretty hands catches with good technique not to use his body. Dobbins is a dangerous route-runner out of the backfield who provides mismatches in coverage against front-seven defenders. For the passing-driven NFL, Dobbins is an excellent fit to contribute to an aerial offense, and that leads to him having three-down-starter potential.” ====================================================== SWIFT The first trait that jumps out about Swift is his speed. He is a fast back with a quick first-step and a burst to the second level. He can pull away from defenders, making him a threat to take any carry or reception down the field for a huge gain. Swift does not have the speed of Chris Johnson, but he is a fast back who provides a speed mismatch out of the backfield. In the NFL, Swift will be a threat to break off long runs due to his rare quickness for a starting back. On top of being fast, Swift is a natural runner. He has excellent vision, body lean, and patience, plus runs behind his pads. Swift sets up blocks and uses his speed to dart through holes before they close. Defenders really struggle to get a hold of Swift, who has great feet that make him very elusive. He is sudden with his ability to cut and change direction as well. Swift has a devastating jab step with cuts back to the inside, and he routinely uses that skill to make tacklers grab air. His abrupt juke even works on defensive backs. With his change-of-direction skills and quick feet, Swift can create big runs on his own, even when blocking assignments are missed. Swift is a devastating runner who can overwhelm defenses. While Swift is not the biggest of backs, he does have strength to his build and is able to break tackles while picking up yards after contact. He is not overpowering by NFL standards, but he will be able to shed tacklers to pick up additional yards. Swift also finishes runs well, delivering some blows to defenders while falling forward. Swift is well suited for the passing-driven NFL due to his talent as a receiving back. He runs good routes out of the backfield and has soft hands. All college backs need to be coached up and groomed for blitz protection in the pros, and Swift will have that learning curve as well. However, he has the potential to be a contributing blitz protector in the NFL. ==================================== There is no doubt Taylor has the ability to make an impact as a running back in the NFL given his skill set to be a three-down starter. He possesses an excellent combination of size and speed that lets him run over tacklers or by them. Taylor has a strong build and is very difficult to get down, as he will power through tackles and bounce off defenders to continue to gain yards. He has superb contact balance and runs behind his pads with good knee bend. In short-yardage situations, Taylor is an asset who can create on his own with his power to push the pile. He keeps his legs going after contact with a powerful lower body that is tough to stop. An added element to his power is a wicked stiff-arm that makes it tough for defenders to grab him. Taylor can rip off yards in chunks in the open field, making him a threat to turn ordinary carries into big gains with his speed to get downfield. Taylor has a quick first-step and a second gear that allows him to run away from defenders. Taylor isn't Chris Johnson fast, but he has good speed for the position. With his cutting ability and quick feet, Taylor has some elusiveness in the open field as well. Aside from his size and speed, Taylor is a natural runner with very good instincts. He displays excellent vision, patience and anticipation to follow his offensive line before bursting downhill. When holes aren't open, Taylor is patient to let his line create a crease and uses his vision very well to make something out of nothing. Taylor anticipates where a hole is about to open, and that lets him get to the second level consistently. In the passing game, Taylor has pretty good hands for a power back. He can makes some difficult catches and is dangerous in space. In time, he should be an asset in pass protection, but like all college backs, he will need coaching and development for pass blocking in the NFL. Edwards-Helaire 5-7 209 pound 4.50 Edwards-Helaire was a dangerous runner and receiver for the Tigers in 2019, doing a lot of dirty work for their point machine offense. The junior averaged 6.6 yards per carry in 2019 for 1,414 yards with 16 touchdowns. He also had 55 receptions for 453 yards and a score. Edwards-Helaire is a tough runner with quickness, cutting ability, vision, and natural body lean. His natural receiving skills make him a potential three-down starter. 2-3 round Moss 5-9 210 Some sources believe Moss is a second- or third-round pick as they feel he is a tough runner with a good build. Others who are really high on him think he could have late first-round talent. H ====================================================

cited you as the source of this podcast in "mock with dobbins in the second" thanks

In another, now dormant thread, RockpileSurvivor suggested the video found at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/locked-on-bills-daily-podcast-on-the-buffalo-bills/id1145479962 as a good listen on the top running backs. Its a bit long, I listened and took notes and think it is valuable for our discussion. Summary: Dobbins 5-9 209 pounds no combine He can catch the ball well and has a complete skill set. Is efficient and has good vision. Takes one cut and is going upfield. Explosive long ball skills this year, last year had a running QB. Should be a 1A running back in the NFL. Good reaction to different defensive coverages and makes the right decisions almost by magic. “almost precognition”. Not real evasive in the open field. Swift 5-8 212 pounds 4.48 Good explosion. Back to back 1000yard seasons. Catches the ball well. 513 carries in college (low milage). Had nagging injuries. Good football character was interviewed by Bills in combine. Good process guy. Writers though him a 1st round pick. Good pass catcher and can step right in in blocking schemes- pro ready there. Minor issue- not great 1:1 In open field. IS patient in setting up blockers, but had good blockers in college & knows how to use them. Taylor 5-10 226 pounds 2.39 Lead Big 10 for 3 seasons. Caught 16 passes last year. Checks every box: speed, size, explosiveness. Elite production. Could be a top 5 pick 10 years ago. Good blocker, has burst around the corner, can make something out of nothing, good “processs” guy. Offers something different from Singletary. Minor concern: hands drops and fumbles Edwards-Heilier 5-7 207 pounds 4.60 Similar to Singletary. Good vision, wide base, good shiftiness. Less break-away. Best pass route runner. A good pick at #54, will not get to #84. Aken 5-10 217pounds 4.47 Very talented, 30 catches. Good for long running plays. Poster child for better pro than college player. Played with a bad o-line, no good QB and funky run scheme. Questions about experience in playing with good offensive line- had to improvise too much, right hole hard to identify because of that. Pass blocking needs coaching up. ====================================================================Later rounds day 3 Zack Moss slower and bigger. Vision and contact balance. “Will take 2 yard gain to 7 yards but not 7 yard gain to 30 yards”. Not a long ball guy James Robinson Illinois State compact powerful runner, little nuances not a pass catcher

Ok, sorry for the eye chart but I can't figure out how to put a nice easy to read excel table into a post. I've put the draft position of RB's into groups of 8 picks (octaves) to make thing simplier (right!). I looked at ten 3-round mock drafts and top 100 player lists. This gives an idea about how those sorts of people view the RB and the draft. Yes they are wrong most of the time but they probably know more than me, although some are obviously idiots. I think Beane has a plan for getting our 2nd running back on the basis of our second round pick. Swift looks out of reach for us, Dobbins may fall to us and Taylor might be available with a trade up. If some team starts a run on running backs, all bets are off. Swift end of 1st Taylor early 2nd Dobbins 2nd half of 2nd round EH top of 3rd round Akers bottom of 3rd round Moss middle of 3rd round Basically our options for moving up are as follows. Of course you have to find a partner to dance. #54 R2 pick and stay pat...................... Could get Dobbins. ..............Probably get EH or Akers #45 R2, R4, R5 picks. Move up to middle 2nd quarter of 2nd round. .........Dobbins and a shot at Taylor #38 R2, R3 picks. Move up to first quarter of 2nd round .......Dobbins for sure, ,,Taylor possible, shot at Swift? #33 R2, R3, R4 picks. Move up to the top of the 2nd round ......good shot at Taylor,..... some chance at Swift #31 R2, R3, next years R2 Bottom of first round.

Gee, the Bills haven't made contact with either of these guys,,,,,, but some people still are suggesting we are going to pick them up as FA. https://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2020/03/free-agency-2020-10-players-buffalo-bills-should-consider-signing.html

[1] Beane takes advantage of what will be in the draft around our pick. [2] Beane uses the draft to get difference maker players, and get them cheaply on rookie contracts. [3] what he did this year was use FA to improve the offensive and defensive lines, and NOT the running back position, where we don't have a second running back. [4] because one of the top 5 RB will be drafted using our 2nd round pick and whatever else is necessary to get a TD difference maker and break away threat to help Allen. That RB will be the BPA at our pick (or move up). [5] If there is a run on the RB's that is beyond our reach, we lose and will get JAG using the 3rd round pick and use BPA at #54. LB or CB.

Dobbins, Taylor or Swift will probably not make it to #54, Edeards Helair might and Akers will never last until #86. You might check out some mock drafts.

Well, guess what. You don't see it too often because teams are putting in plodders for running backs and adjusting their schemes for that. What you DON'T see is that a break-away home-run runner is schemed against. Defenses are run different. Linebackers protect areas against runs. Defensive linemen have to control their gaps rather than pin their ears back and pass rush. Safeties have to keep peeking into the backfield and into gaps in the line of scrimmage to check for the RB. This results in other parts of the offense running better. You don't see all of the effect of the game-changing RB by the number of long TD's.

Probably not. We pick up too many veteran free agents to win in the comp pick game.

What I think is missing from your view are the following. [1] there is a BIG difference between a JAG "backup" running back and having a 1a and 1b running back. Teams are going the 1a and 1b route. Remember TT and Davis in the superbowl years. Without Davis, we miss at least one superbowl..... [2] You arr NOT going to get a stud CB or DE two thirds the way down the second round. 61% of the time you are getting a development JAG guy who is not going to see the field as a DE and will be an emergency DB replacement on a team like the Bills. It is not making your team better this year. It is depth and cost savings in the future. [3] This year we have a shot at really upgrading RB with the top 3-4 guys or improving greatly over JAG with the top 5 or 6. The 3rd round will only bring a minor improvement over the leftovers from the FA or waiver wire. [4] Beane has shown that he WILL trade up to get a high quality player. Allen, Ford, Knox, Edmunds, Dawkins, Melano are examples of aggressive moves to get a difference maker rather than an adequate JAG. It has been successful. For example, I like Edmunds even though we gave up a 3rd round pick to move up from 22 to 16. There were good players available at #22, but he went for the difference maker player. Expect more of the same, as they are trying to be a top team rather than striving to just stay in the top half of the league. Beane wants as many DIFFERENCE MAKERS, STUDS, or TOUCHDOWN SCORERS as possible. Outclass the oppositiion at as many key positions as possible.

Well, I see the chance to get a game-changing running back in the second round and Beane has not picked up any JAG veteran running backs. That last thing should tell us something. It seems that defensive ends are either found high in the draft- 1st round, or are hidden somewhere and everywhere else. The chart below suggests we would be as successful looking in the 4th round and UFA as in the second round. This year they are predicting run on DE's, with 11 or so supposed to go before our #54 pick. The list below shows that there is no year with more than two top DE's selected. 1., Calais Campbell Jacksonville ………2nd round 2018 # 50 2. Myles Garrett, Cleveland……………1st round 2017 # 01 3. Cameron Jordan, New Orleans 1st round 2011 # 24 4. Joey Bosa, Los Angeles Chargers 1st round 2017 # 03 5., Danielle Hunter Minnesota 3rd round 2015 # 88 6. Demarcus Lawrence, Dallas 2nd round 2014 # 34 7. Frank Clark, Kansas City 2nd round 2015 # 63 8. Trey Flowers, Detroit 4th round 2015 # 101 9. Melvin Ingram, Chargers 1st round 2012 # 18 10. Dee Ford, San Francisco 1st round 2014 # 23 11. Michael Bennett, New England UFA 2009 12. Olivier Vernon, Cleveland 3rd round 2012 # 72 13., Mario Addison Carolina(BUFFALO) UFA 2011 14. Yannick Ngakoue, Jacksonville 3rd round 2016 # 69 15. Jerry Hughes, Buffalo 1st round 2010 #31 So. We don’t have a 1st round draft pick. We are unlikely to get a #16 pick in the first round (avg of 1st round DE) anytime soon. There are 6 first rounders, only 3 second rounders, 3 third rounders a forth rounder and two UFA. There are NINE from the first and second rounds and NINE from the third round and below. We don’t need to waste that second round pick on a DE prospect. https://athlonsports.com/nfl/nfl-defensive-linemen-rankings

A RB, these days, should be platooned. CEH is probably a step up from Singletary. We get the second needed RB and he is a bit better to other guy AND does all the same things.

Gee, do you think there will be another Crowley type player as a FA or trade next year? Do you think that maybe 3 or 4 really great potential young defensive ends might wind up on somebody's practice squad- somebody they are trying to hide? Maybe a guy who has already been through the original screening and culling that rookies get, and has a year or two of time on pro training. Have you looked at who might be available in the 2021 draft ? This is not the last chance we have to pump young DE's into the pipeline. Is it possible that one of the Bills depth chart people might develop. Has God put out a notice that as of 3-29-2020 not a single additional NFL DE is going to be allowed to breathe? https://nfltraderumors.co/2021-nfl-free-agent-list/

With only one quality running back why in the hell would they wait until the 4th round? The R1b will get at least 10-15 touches a game. We might be able to get one of the top 3 RB's who (within 2-3 years) could be a top 8 RB in the league. You rather a development prospect at DE, who 53 other teams decided not to draft. JHC !!

Hope hope, hope, move up somehow and take one of the top three or 5 running backs. Upgrade from the already good Singletary, get two good RB to spell each other, get another threat to run the ball and to catch a screen or circle and take it to the house. Another easy option for Allen. Imagine Allen moving out of the pocket with a Dobbins available for a sort pass or an Allen run.