maryland-bills-fan

I always get cynical when somebody says that there will be 2 or 3 times the number of players at a position THIS YEAR compared to other years. I wonder if that is a herd mentality or experts quoting experts to build up a false narrative that everyone agrees on. You might think that players would jockey the year they made themselves available in order to get in the $$$ first round. If there are 15 -20 wide receivers getting drafted in the first two rounds AND we are looking for depth, realize that there are going to be 25-30 or so veteran WR getting dumped into the waiver wire or younger players stashed on practice squads. There will be film on the waived veterans and we can get a known quality. A "project" guy can be taken off the waiver wire and stashed on the depth chart on the roster. There are two more positions available there this year. There is more than one way to play the game. Remember the 3 draft picks we got by trading marginal OL depth.

Here is an interesting article explaining the basic running back routes. http://www.spreadoffense.com/ssp/rb_spread_threat TT was deadly with the "wheel" and the "hole". That would give Allen a safety net on blitzes. The "rice" (I never heard it called that) with a drag by a WR, would be deadly with a good pass catching and speedier RB. A speedy RB who could flex out as a WR would also give the defense fits and could lead to big mismatches. There is also this thing called "a screen pass", which is illegal for the Bills. There is a whole world that we have been missing on offense. Our receiving stats for last year: https://www.footballdb.com/stats/teamstat.html?group=O&cat=T catches yards yard per game Brown 72 1060 70.7 Beasley 67 778 51.9 Knox 28 338 25.9 Yeldon 13 124 20.7 Sweeney 8 114 19 McKenzie 27 254 16.9 Singletary 29 194 16.2 Gore 13 100 6.2 (D Williams 12 166 41.5 ) The backup running back and each of two tight ends have a better yards/game than our present RB. Remember that in receiving in 2019 for RB's he is ranked #44. Sorry for any misspellings.

Maybe a pass catching running back?

Have 3 starters and backups already. 5 Bills picks on WR?

I think the difference is that we can get a scary guy rather than just a plug-and-play JAG. We could also jazz up the circle route by the RB and (gasp !!) use the "screen pass", whatever that is. I think it is the best way to improve the offense.

Well, I would say that a high draft pick who is off the roster and almost out of the league in 2 years would be a bust. I had the opinion that WR was the most risky position- I've seen that said a lot and didn't challenge it. I was wrong. There are a couple of articles that look by position and round to see who has made starter for half their career, and on the basis of those, I'll take back my view that WR is the most risky. Looking at https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round "I did not distinguish superstars from regular starters. The determination of a starter comes from whether the player started at least half of their career." There is a very high bust rate for RBs. The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th. The first round success rate is 58% and the second round is almost as good at 49%. The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate. A couple of other articles give about the same results. Not=starters are QB, RB, WR DL and the other.s

Frankly, I am more worried about running back. Our backup, didn't play or suit up in 10 of the games. One ACL and our entire season is down the drain.

....And I want a pony and a bicycle and a Wilt Chamberlin jersey and a Playboy bunny for Christmas. He is out of reach. Maybe we can see him twice a year when we play the fish..... Sigh.... But E-H would be an upgrade and give us the second good RB.

You are ignoring that WR has the highest bust rate of all positions.

...and here is the Buffalo Bills starting line up. At offensive line, 5 players, originally drafted as centers.....

Well, the highest I saw Singletary ranked at RB was #8 and most mock drafts had him as a 4th round guy and the Bills took him early in the 3rd. It was a little reach but has turned out okay. We could get a RB in the second round who is better, has more speed and is a better pass receiver to help Allen with escape hot passes and taking advantage of deepzones used against Brown and Diggs. I disagree. He drafts athletic, high ceiling core players early and looks for home run shots in the lower rounds. He fills a lot of needs with cheaper veteran FA;s and is then in the position in the draft to take a BPA at a position of need or some guy who is BPA by far because he dropped 10-15 slots.

I disagree with part of what you said. .." I think it is better and the Bills are doing the following. Look for high ceiling athletes rather than backups in the middle and late rounds. You can fill the back up players with veterans who have a track record and the fits right in. The Patriots have been doing good with fielding a collection of one-trick ponies who are very good with that one trick and Bellycheck knows how to use them.

...Or you might stay away from a crapshoot and get good professional players who have proven that they can do it. You know, people like Diggs, Brown, and Beasly. Naw, the Bills would never do something like that.

Notice that our second running back did not play or dress for 10 games last year.

That is true. It is a glamor position. Everyone wants to be smart and pick one of those because everyone else is. A RB1A, who is an upgrade on Singletary will get 10-20 running touches a game. (60-70 offensive plays 45% rushing = ~ 30 rushing). Singletary had 14 catches all season in about 10 games. We can expect even more passes to the RB with a new guy. There is no way that rookie WR4 is going to have that much improvement in the offense and help to Allen.

I agree we need more good offensive weapons. I agree we need to give Allen more receivers. Singletary is about #45 in receiving in 2019. It wasn't a strong suit in college and it was noted in draft publications. Of the top 5 running backs, three are good receivers. Swift, E-H and Dobbins (I'm pretty sure he is the third). This is a weapon that we haven't been using. Remember T.Thomas sneaking out of the backfield and taking a short pass and routinely getting a big chunk? 10-15 yards is the sweet one for Allen right now and several of these top RB's would be a mismatch with LB's in that area. It would also give fits the the defensive backfields. They have to cover the slot, they would like to double cover both wide outs and now they have to worry about a fast RB coming out of the backfield or being the hot read. I think this would really help the offense much more than a development OT or a rookie WR.

Smart GM's and coaches put their team in a position to win. Putting the Bills draft situation into where the "BPA" is at a position of need (RB-1A or RB-1B) is smart. Also, I think the Bills are always going after the superior athlete with their draft picks, rather than a try-real-hard and got-everything-he-can-get out of his abilities guy. The former can have a high ceiling with proper coaching up. The latter will often be swamped by the higher level of competition in the pros and is already at their peak. This aspect does not show up in the Big Boards of the mock drafts. (Knox was abot the 29th TE and caught all of 39 passes in his entire college career)

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/5/1/17305318/draft-pick-team-philosophy-colts-ravens-bears-titans Colts draft for need and revamp offensive line to smash mouth. Ravens pick multiple tight ends because their system needs them. Bears go win now and replace MLB, fill in for departed #2 wide receiver and guard https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2011/3/11/2044579/top-draft-philosophies-in-the-nfl-today-part-1-the-belichick https://www.giants.com/news/what-is-the-giants-draft-strategy-in-2020 Well, I see the Bills working hard with FA and planning for the draft, so that when they draft, the "BPA" or close to it, is also at a position of need and also gets a superior athlete. By the way, if the Giants have such a great plan,,, why are they always drafting so high? http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d82857c66/article/bill-walshs-nfl-draft-philosophies-six-lessons-from-the-master High ceiling, shown they can do it http://www.creamcitycentral.com/sports/packers-new-draft-philosophy/ But earlier, the Packers were heavy into getting a lot of picks and building only through the draft. It should be noted that they started with a good well balanced team and had a top QB for decades. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-draft-new-packers-gm-blended-philosophies-of-ted-thompson-howie-roseman/ I like what I think Beane is doing and there seems to be a lot of variations.

What the Bills have done the last 3 years is to set themselves to improve the roster the most. I think the sequence goes something like this: 1. Examine the roster and see where we need improvement. Where you want to be is having superior core players, no glaring weaknesses and some cheap develop players filling up some of the extra roster spots. 2. Look at the upcoming draft and rank the players by their quality. "Big Board" 3. Look at what the other teams are likely to draft when. This gives you a modified Big Board which has who will be available at the Bills picks. They also have to consider some attributes of the players by how they might fit into the Bill's locker room character and offense/defense system. T A "process guy" gets ranked different than a diva. A zone blocker gets rated different than a power blocker. 4. Get this idea who and what might be available in the draft and take another look at your roster and it's needs. Go into free agency and improve the positions, that you may not improve in the draft. 5. You now are in a good place to go into the draft. You can move draft the "BPA" at a position of need. You might want to jump ahead 5-10 slots to get this guy, if you think somebody else is going to pick him ahead of you. (the Bills have done this twice in the early rounds in EACH the last 3 drafts). Sometimes you might be able to move back a couple of spots and still get your guy- but that is risky. 6. The Bills have used the draft to get superior core players. Often a player is characterized as having a value, floor and ceiling. I think the Bills have used the drafted players with a greater emphasis on a high ceiling than value (plug & play early value) or high floor". They also seem to want superior athletes, who will have more upside. A real good, try-hard guy, who is making every last bit of his abilities to rank high is NOT taken over a guy who is a better athlete but raw and underdeveloped. Shooting for all-pro potential. Get them cheap on a rookie contract. You will need superior players to beat good teams in the playoffs. https://www.si.com/nfl/cowboys/news/cowboys-mock-draft-best-available-player-doesnt-work-nfl-jerry-jeudy

That doesn't work. Those two were bit players for one or two games.

This stuff is complicated. We are all just stumbling along

Not how things happen. People panic and "it is a wonderful draft for WR and we don't want to get left out. Draft SOMEBODY"!!! Well, when you run a poll or an election, you can influence the results by splitting the vote. In political elections, 2, 3 or 4 "third party candidates" can suck votes out of a candidate and throw the election to the guy from the other side. I think the Bills might have several good RB candidates to chose from at #54 or a mild trade up from there. To me, that means they can selected the best "flavor" for their needs (they know better than me).

sloppy 7ths or 9ths or 11ths? No thank you.

Sorry, but you biased the results by waiting until you got a certain result and then stopped. The WR won by 6% when you stopped. RB's actually won, 31 % to 28%. There were 3 RB options and only one WR option.

I took his 2019 stats from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019 If he was injured, well that is part of his ability to help the team. The Bills were 4-4 in their last 8 games. I like to look at a whole season's production to avoid cherry picking. I think he is a good gutty player, but we can upgrade with our 2020 2nd round pick. Especially this year when there are a lot of OT, WR and DE going at the top of the draft (with a big gap in quality coming before our turn in the 2nd round). and a 4-5 excellent RB;s who might drop to us. Notice that Beane wants "touchdown makers" and we don't really have a second RB for the RB by two guys method. Some of the draft guys are also excellent receivers, which would open up a new window for the offense.