maryland-bills-fan

Why in the world would you settle for the 8th to 15th running back in the draft? Those other guys got drafted ahead of them for some reason that at least 7 teams in the NFL think are important. (Opps, many posters here are too shiek to believe that somebody who gets the ball on about 40% of the offensive plays is really important) We need a RB that other teams are afraid of. Singletary does not do many things well and we could EASILY improve the team by drafting a top RB. Yes, he is a nice player and a Bill. I get that we are all homers and like our guys. We need somebody with the speed to get around the corner. We need somebody with natural pass catching ability. We need somebody who can be a weapon in the short passing game- especially deadly now that we have two very good and speedy wideouts to make the defense defend more downfield. We need somebody who has enough speed and WR ability to give the other team fits, when he lines up outside and gives us a 4th wideout look. ==================================================================================================================== McCaffrey $16,0 million a year 1,387 yards rushing 1,005 yards receiving 1st round pick 8 rank at RB 1 Diggs $14.4 million a year ------------------------------- 1,130 yards receiving Yeldon $01.5 million a year 63 yards rushing 124 yards receiving 2nd round pick 36 rank at RB 96 Singeltary $00.97 million a year 775 yards rushing 194 yards receiving 3rd round pick 4 rank at RB 31 You get what you pay for.

Yes. God does not come down from heaven and assign each player a specific draft value number. You are NOT going to be sitting at pick #142 and saying, well this player is a 85.39 and this other player is a 85.41, so OBVIOUSLY we have to take "BPA" and take the 85.41 guy. Too bad. We have 2 all-pros at the position already, so I hope he plays special teams. Look at all the mock drafts and their big boards. Look at what we know of each team's own big boards and how they have players rated differently and drafted differently. There is NOT a "BPA" at every draft pick. There is maybe 5-10 players whose range rating falls into the window of that draft pick. That should tell you that there is not an ABSOLUTE BPA at a spot. There may be players who are rated more highly at that position who don't fit your offensive or defensive scheme. Don't draft them. There might be 3-7 players who could fit your team. Do you draft the player who are not going to be useful to you or the players who will be useful to you

The Diggs brothers have a long argument about who Mom likes more. Don't draft him- we don't need players taking sides and throwing cleats at each other after a game. Just joking.

We have a RB who is #22 in rushing and #45 in receiving yards. Get a clue. We have one of the top WR groups in the league. We should be looking for high ceiling gems in the 4th and 5th round who might develop into a starter in a couple of years, when the contracts of the present group runs out. Our "RB1B" did not even dress for 10 games and never played in the playoff game. We need an upgrade for him and Singletary.

The Bills "drafted" a veteran WR in the first round, with picks #22 (worth 780 points), #155 (worth 28.2 points) #201 (worth 9.8 points) and got back #229 (-1 points). So the cost was 817 points which puts them between picks 21 and 20. Looking quickly at a few mock drafts, that is probably too late to have gotten Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs and a few picks too early for Higgins (#25?#33?) or Mims(#30). It looks about exactly right for Justin Jefferson. Let's get back together after the 2020-2021 season and see how Diggs worked out compared to Ruggs, Jefferson and Higgins. We should also acknowledge that Allen is still a work in progress and the Bills are better off having a veteran WR teach Allen things, rather than Allen teaching the rookie. https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/24/buffalo-bills-minnesota-vikings-stefon-diggs-nfl-draft-picks/ Note: the following chart includes the comp picks after rounds 3 and 4 https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp

Yea, why look at what he did.

I think the Bills are not looking for a backup but are looking for a RB#1A. Singletary has some limitations- not a natural pass catcher, not enough speed to get around the corner, break away or scare people if he lines up as a WR. There are 4-5 RB's in this draft who (I think) are better than him for sure, and we might get lucky and snag one of them at #54 or with a slight moveup. That would give us a stronger team. Other teams are aware of these guys and they may all be gone by our #54. Scheiss !! There are another 3-4 guys who are about as good as Singletary and also offer complimentary skills to him. If we are in that situation a whole bunch of other things can happen. We can take a different position and pick up a RB1B in the 3rd, we could trade down (I say for a higher pick in 2021) and pick the best of them up, there are a lot of options. I would like to get a very good, almost #2 WR type RB to help out our WR and Allen. Plan B would be to get the complimentary type guy. Bellycheck used 4-5 RB's and the evil genus mixed and matched them for each opponent. Evil genus.

"The evidence doesn't even begin to show that". Well, the yards receiving are usually considered pretty reliable and I don't think there is much need to challenge them. I'm reminded of a quote from an English politician in the 1800's. "My opponent has taken the argument to a plane where facts are not allowed to interfer with the free flow of ideas" " It's like arguing because a guy didn't drink much alcohol this week he's not an alcoholic...." geesh!! lets measure how much booze he drank over an entire season, why not "We don't know"... Well he had a whole season to make his case. I am smart enough to know that if I hit myself with a hammer in the head and it hurts... I don't have to do that more than 16 times to know it is not a good idea. Maybe you don't know, but don't include me in the "We don't know" If it "easily happens" that a guy often improves in the second year, why isnt everybody a starter after the second year? Does anybody think that this is the year for a lot of improvement during mini-camps and training camps?

Well, I don't know how you did that. Try this. [1] Pull up this on your search engine. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019 scroll down to the 3rd section which is labled RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked [2] There is a top row on the chart the 11th column heading is "yards" (total yards receiving for 2019). Go there and click on it to make it the parameter that the total chart is going to be sorted by. This sorting gives you the total yards that player got by catching passes in 2019. [3] Go down the list. Go WAY down the list. Near the bottom you find Singeltary. I guess I'm just simple. I don't care to get into pissing contest about somebody's pet 27 term parameter about figuring out who is what. IF the guy is 45th in the total number of yards he got as receiving passes, that gives me a clue and I'll ignore BS and nuanced tap dancing. RECEIVING: Minimum 25 passes, 50 players ranked Passes includes all passes to this receiver, complete and incomplete. Catch Rate is the percentage of passes completed to this receiver. Player Team DYAR Rk YAR Rk DVOA Rk VOA Passes Yards ▴ EYds TD Catch Rate FUM C.McCaffrey CAR 386 1 351 2 34.8% 4 30.4% 142 1,005 1,365 4 82% 0 A.Ekeler LAC 320 2 359 1 38.8% 3 45.1% 108 993 1,093 8 85% 2 J.White NE 142 5 179 3 14.8% 14 22.4% 95 645 647 5 76% 0 A.Kamara NO 83 13 44 22 1.6% 23 -5.7% 97 533 558 1 84% 1 L.Fournette JAX -17 42 -28 45 -17.0% 42 -19.1% 101 524 349 0 76% 1 D.Cook MIN 144 4 138 5 29.2% 5 27.5% 63 519 535 0 84% 1 M.Sanders PHI 121 7 134 6 20.0% 12 23.7% 63 509 504 3 79% 0 A.Jones GB 35 24 54 20 -5.1% 29 -0.5% 68 474 359 3 72% 1 L.Bell NYJ 3 39 32 25 -13.2% 39 -6.5% 78 461 315 1 85% 1 T.Cohen CHI -36 45 -51 46 -20.1% 43 -22.7% 104 456 337 3 76% 1 S.Barkley NYG -37 46 -25 44 -22.8% 45 -19.9% 73 438 218 2 71% 1 E.Elliott DAL 99 10 87 12 12.6% 16 9.3% 71 420 474 2 76% 0 D.Freeman ATL 51 19 55 18 -0.9% 25 0.1% 70 410 388 4 84% 1 Du.Johnson HOU 125 6 114 7 24.6% 9 21.5% 62 410 481 3 71% 0 C.Thompson WAS 34 25 20 31 -2.1% 26 -7.0% 58 378 280 0 72% 1 Da.Johnson ARI 114 8 111 8 29.2% 6 28.0% 47 370 426 4 77% 1 K.Drake 2TM 23 29 -25 43 -7.9% 33 -20.1% 68 345 331 0 74% 0 J.Richard OAK 39 21 54 19 2.7% 22 8.6% 43 323 252 0 84% 1 N.Hines IND -24 43 -1 38 -21.5% 44 -14.2% 58 320 174 0 76% 1 R.Jones TB 47 20 58 17 9.2% 17 14.5% 40 309 242 0 78% 1 J.Samuels PIT 17 33 23 30 -8.9% 35 -7.2% 57 305 288 1 82% 1 M.Gordon LAC 19 31 15 34 -7.3% 32 -8.8% 55 296 246 1 76% 1 D.Washington OAK 74 15 76 15 21.1% 11 22.3% 41 292 303 0 88% 0 J.Mixon CIN 86 12 80 13 19.3% 13 17.2% 45 287 363 3 78% 0 D.Ogunbowale TB 31 26 16 32 -2.9% 27 -8.3% 46 286 267 0 76% 1 K.Hunt CLE 71 16 80 14 14.2% 15 18.1% 44 285 325 1 84% 0 R.Burkhead NE 37 23 27 28 4.0% 21 -0.8% 38 279 227 0 71% 1 N.Chubb CLE -4 41 10 35 -15.3% 41 -10.0% 49 278 174 0 73% 1 C.Carson SEA 57 18 39 23 8.9% 18 1.6% 47 266 295 2 79% 1 R.Freeman DEN 10 36 15 33 -10.1% 36 -8.3% 50 256 208 1 86% 0 J.Williams GB 103 9 103 10 27.4% 8 27.5% 45 253 391 5 87% 0 J.Conner PIT 75 14 93 11 21.2% 10 29.8% 38 251 308 3 89% 0 M.Ingram BAL 145 3 153 4 74.6% 1 79.1% 29 247 418 5 90% 0 K.Juszczyk SF 98 11 108 9 47.6% 2 53.5% 24 239 317 1 83% 0 L.Murray NO 19 32 24 29 -5.6% 31 -3.4% 43 235 202 1 79% 0 G.Bernard CIN -55 49 -58 49 -38.5% 48 -40.0% 43 234 46 0 70% 2 J.D.McKissic DET 12 35 -2 39 -8.2% 34 -14.6% 42 233 176 1 81% 0 Dam.Williams KC 24 28 34 24 -3.7% 28 0.7% 37 213 216 2 81% 0 T.Gurley LAR 0 40 -20 42 -13.8% 40 -21.0% 49 207 197 2 63% 0 P.Laird MIA 39 22 51 21 8.6% 19 15.4% 30 204 205 0 77% 0 B.Scott PHI 67 17 62 16 29.0% 7 25.9% 26 204 250 0 92% 1 P.Lindsay DEN -69 50 -57 48 -39.7% 49 -35.0% 48 196 48 0 73% 0 D.Singletary BUF -47 48 -53 47 -35.2% 47 -37.7% 41 194 61 2 71% 0 D.Montgomery CHI 15 34 8 36 -5.5% 30 -9.3% 35 185 164 1 71% 0 L.McCoy KC -34 44 -15 41 -32.2% 46 -22.0% 35 181 63 1 82% 1 T.Coleman SF 23 30 28 27 0.0% 24 2.7% 30 180 168 1 70% 0 J.Jacobs OAK 28 27 31 26 4.6% 20 6.6% 27 166 166 0 74% 0 D.Lewis TEN 3 38 -8 40 -11.9% 38 -19.0% 32 164 115 1 78% 0 C.J.Ham MIN 6 37 2 37 -10.1% 37 -12.5% 26 149 134 1 65% 0 T.Johnson DET -45 47 -60 50 -40.2% 50 -48.8% 31 109 29 0 77% 1 I would worry. Rookies often get away with things. The next year their weaknesses are on film to see. My opinion is that Singletary is about at his ceiling and the league will catch up with him.

Gee, we rushed for 2054 yards (#8) and team #18 rushed for 1703 yards. We beat out NE by 22 yards a game. Teams are pretty closely bunched for running yards. Running yards when you are pbablaying conseratively are easy to come by. in edit... Oh I forgot to add that our QB Allen had more than half the yards from scrimmage of Singeltary. (and Allen never passed the ball to himself) Singletary 969 yards Gore 699 yards Allen 510 yards McKenszie 303 yards So our friggin quarterback and jet-sweep guy had about as many yards as Singletary. GET A friggin clue !!!!!!. cf: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2019.htm {{edit: sorry to be so strident, it is the Scotch and isolation speaking}}

Right. If this is such a wonderful draft for wide receivers that we can get a starter to push Beasley or Brown to the bench,,, well than, lets get the high quality backup in the 3rd or 4th round !

Gee. Singletary was #45 in RB receiving last year. So, 32 teams had a better pass reciever than the Bills. 22 teams had TWO running backs that were better pass receiver than Singletary. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/rb/2019 #47 Singletary Buffalo 41 passes for 194 yards #32 L,Murray Saints 43 passes for 235 yards #16 K.Hunt Browns 44 passes for 285 yards #8 Da. Johnson Arizona 47 passes for 370 yards I would like the Bills to be at lease in the top half to top quarter of the league. If you think we should pass the ball more, putting an additional receiving threat on the field for every play seems like a good idea. We are giving about 150 yards away AND adding a threat at RB pass catching will mean few double coverages on the top 2 wide receivers, and make them more effective.

We should have one of the best WR trios in the league. Even if this draftee could put one of them on the bench, why not improve some part of the team that needs improvement? Geesh, if the guy could put Diggs on the bench, then every other teams should be stupid in not taking him OR we should get some other team to give us a 1st round pick in exchange for our #54 pick.

I really don't like all these trendy "RULES" that people invent, repeat to one-another and then worship. Of course you want to get the "BPA", but reality is "the BPA within reason". If you are already stacked at a position, and there is a "BPA" sitting there, he is not your pick because he adds nothing to the team in the next 2-3 years. (and is then close to FA). IF the player is that superior, then you answer the phone because somebody else will be calling and asking for you to trade for your slot. That, automatically, solves the problem. If it doesn't, well than reality has shown you the truth. What the Bills have done the past 3 years is TWICE each year, traded up to get a player they wanted. They didn't like or want the "BPA" available with their pick and bundled their pick and some lower picks to move up and get a NEED player to build and improve the roster. That has worked out well, (it is not "BPA"). Sorry to get people upset, but when you decide to move up in the draft to get a player, that is a NEED move. {{note added in edit. It is BOTH a NEED and a BPA pick. Why not get both at the same time? Every choice in life and business is a compromise between two extremes.}} Give the Bills organization credit for some brains in how they approach the draft. They INTEGRATE picking up veteran FA's and which veteran FA's they get WITH the expected players in the draft. This year the used their 1st and a couple of late middle picks to get a #1 wide receiver who has a close to ZERO bust rate and fill that NEED. Right now we have one starting level RB on the roster and he has limitations. (Sorry Homers). He is on the small side, shifty and good between the tackles. He doe NOT have the speed to turn the corner, he is NOT a natural pass catcher, he scares nobody if he lines up wide as a WR and he is no good as hot read or the plays that made TT such a great. He is the 2019 #22 in rushing and 2019 #45 in receiving among running backs. The Bills have planned ahead and at #54, or with a modest trade up, might be in a position of getting one of the top 5 RB's. They are an immediate upgrade and will play this year and may even start this year. That seems to be the plan.

Unless you need a better RB and need a second running back. About 45% of the offensive plays are running plays, and the running back should also have at least 6 touches as a pass target.

I see some of our posters saying that there are 15 WR worthy of a 1st or high second round pick. I agree that about 10 will be taken before our #54 pick. And no, I don't think that you can get somebody there who will start in Buffalo in 2020 or 2021. It is a luxury pick compare to RB, CB and DE. Yes we can upgrade at punter. Our backup QB only saw limited action and they will bring in competition for the 3rd string guy. Nobody has two starting QB's in the nfl. The 4,5,6 wide receivers DO play a lot and this year Diggs will be pushing last year's #3 to the bench. They are just fine for a #4 and for backups. Running back is the position that is done by committee in the NFL on most teams. We have ONE RB, who is not a weapon in the passing game, who has limited speed, and is not big enough to knock over people near the goal line.

Some stats on Singletary as a pass receiver from https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/stats?season=2019&week=100&category=RECEIVING&opp=0&sort=2&qualified=1&sortOrder=0&page=5 He is the 208th leading receiver in the NFL in 2019.. He had 6.7 yards per catch and averaged 16.2 yards per game. He was targeted 41 times and caught 29 passes for 194 yards His longest play was 49 yards .... ... (If you take out this one play, then he averaged 5.2 yards /completion or 3.6 yards per pass attempted to him.) His YAC was 193 and total yards was 194. That suggests that he didn't get a lot of passes far down the field and a lot of them were caught behind the LOS. I don't remember him serving as a hot read for the QB and my impression was that most of his passes were out on the flat as a type of running play. I don't remember him lining up as a WR to go out on a downfield pattern. I didn't watch most of the games, so I would welcome comments.

Did they ever do a screen pass last year? Singletary is not a natural at catching the short pass. He is not a big danger to get a big chunk if he catches the ball 3 yards past the LOS and takes off. He scares NOBODY if he flexes out as an additional wide receiver. He does not have elite speed to beat linebackers around the corner. Fans may not agree with this, because the Bills did not run too many of these plays. We lost offensive production because of this. He is good as a shifty smart between the tackles, but is not big enough to push people aside or backwards near the goal line. He had TWO Touchdowns last year. (Bean is quoted as saying that he wants "touchdown makers") We need to fill in those holes and there are 5 RB's in the draft who are good quality and can do that. There are also a good second tier who can compliment.

Are you going to get that at #54?? Remember that he might be the 16th or 26th WR taken. At that pick, he is going to be EITHER a try hard guy from a minor conference who put up wower numbers but never played against top notch DB's. or a physical freak, who needs a couple years of coaching up and fingers crossed that he doesn't have an emotional or learning problem or a guy who was seriously injured and who is questionable if he will recover. Anyway he will be starting late in a season without a lot of training time. Yes, lighting hits every once in a while. But are you expecting this guy to push for a #1 or #2 spot in 2021. That doesn't make sense. Closet Miami fan. That is called reaching. ======================================================================================= NEW POST below I see a lot of posters trashing all our backup receivers. our #4, #5 and #6 are just a pile of dog doo-doo. Somehow we got into the playoffs with these guys starting. How did that happen?

https://www.buffalobills.com/photos/photos-buffalo-bills-uniforms-through-the-years#b6b11c37-6d93-45a4-bb98-db88449eb21c Hands down

Let me explain. I don't see player "rankngs" within a position and especially between positions as an absolute system. There is a range for each player and the ranges overlap. There is not a "this guy is a 86.2 , whereas this other guy is a 87.4" real system going on. How do you compare the "12th" ? tight end to the 15th ? OLB? . How do you compare a WR who is a good route runner who gets seperation with a guy who is slower but can catch contested balls?. I think in reality, they may rank the players with a single number but actually think in terms of a spread. For example, in the following diagram a "x" - means= okay to draft here and a "----" probably not and a "====" means undervalued by now. , -----------A---------------B----------E--------C-------------D--------- player1 ---------------------------------xxxxxxXxxxxxx==================== player2 -----------------xxxxxxXxxxxxxxx============================ player3-----------------------------------------xxxxxxXxxxxxx================ player4 --------xxxxXxxxxx====================================== Based on this, you would take player 4 at draft pick position A, at B player2 would the choice (player1 being gone) and at C player 1 or player 3 would be your choice (player 2 and player4 being gone) of a pick. If your turn was at D you could take any one of them Now there is also the problem of what your needs are. If your draft pick is at B and player4 is a 3-4 defensive end AND you play a 4-3, the guy is probably useless to you. Do you draft him ("best value") and hope to retrain him and change his body to play OLB or 4-3 DE? No, you might trade down to a team at B and pick up a draft pick and HOPE that nobody drafting at C moves up to take him before pick B comes up. If there is no trade partner, then you pass on player4 and go for player B. (you could call that "need") There is also another matter of need. If you are at C and players 1,2,3 are available. Player2 is a center and you have a good veteran center with a big contract. I say don’t draft the center. …. If player1 is a wide receiver and you have 3 good wide receivers and you realize that the rookie is not going to get ahead of them for 3 years (and has a 50:50 chance of never starting), there is not a lot of value for your team there. Certainly a known veteran for backup can also sit on the bench. .. Lets say that player3 is a running back, who is as good or better than your starter and can do some things that the present starter hasn’t done will. You have no proven backup except a guy who did not even dress for 10 games. I say draft FOR NEED and take player3 rather than player 2. The purpose of the draft is to get players to win football games, not to “win”a variety show. Now what I have seen Beane et.al. do over the past 3 years is to move up in the draft. The Bills are sitting at “D” and players 2 and 4 are at positions that we can greatly upgrade. He takes some lower round picks and moves up to get a serious upgrade at a position. It might be that the draft is going on and is at position E AND player4 hasn’t been picked yet. Okay, that is another reason for a trade up I and you grab the player that you though had dropped so far that you really improved the team a lot. Maybe you didn't really need him right now, but the value is too much to pass up. (Ford?) As to which WR I would take at #54- the answer is none. Nobody who should be in the first round is going to get to #54. We are set for now at WR and if this is such a special year, well then we can get a gem in the 3rd round.

Heh? There are exceptions but I would guess 14%. A good WR class but #54 in the round. There is more information that would be nice. How many players picked at each position for example. He also has a near ZERO bust factor. Rookies are young men, who often get weird as they grow or have been coached on how to act to scouts in college. If this is such a great WR year, we certainly can wait until the 3rd and 4th round to get a backup, development player for the future.

Here are two charts from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#2064cbbe7495 The first chart shows (for all positions) the percent of players, by round that started 80% of their games "...... I looked at all players drafted in the 2010 draft, and gauged what percentage of games over those five years (a max of 80 games) have players started. The sample size here of 210 players produced these results:" Percentage of Total Games Started (Since 2010...80 games max) Groups Median Overall 15.0% ----------- 1st 67.5% 2nd 33.8% 3rd 36.3% 4th 6.3% 5th 4.4% 6th 1.9% 7th 0.0% So, for all positions (QB, RB and WR are the most risky picks) there is a from the first round there is 67% chance you will get a starter, Second round is 34% , overall is 15% for all 7 rounds, etc. =-====================================================================================== The Bills have a good roster and, my opinion, is that he is using the draft to try to get all-pro level players and uses FA to get solid players and backup players. (at lower draft rounds he takes moon shots at great athletes and hopes for development). If you are going to beat other very good teams in the playoffs, you need to have the best players. He is looking for all pro players. Here is their analysis of getting 1st and 2nd team all pros Round Freq. Percent Cuml. 1 83 48.5 48.5 2 24 14.0 62.6 3 15 8.8 71.4 4 12 7.0 78.4 5 9 5.3 83.6 6 6 3.5 87.1 7 2 1.2 88.3 Undrafted 18 10.5 98.8 Supplemental 2 1.2 100.0 Total 171 100 Once you are out of the first round the percent goes way down. ...... The the comment that half of them are busts is more than true. Overall the draft gives a 15% chance of getting a starter. ..... .....

Silly.