maryland-bills-fan

Yes, I am sure that all the wide receivers were banged up and operating at ~80%. Realize the following: If you pass the ball al the time, you wide recievers get a lot of hits and should be banged up by the end of the season. Might it be better to have our 310 pound offensive guards banging up their 180 pound defensive backs? Another reason to have a balanced offence.

I disagree. We never had a run game that scared anybody OR made them compromise their pass defense.

Amen. I have been saying that for 4 years.

Folks. Take a deep breath into a paper bag a few times.(and none of the funny smoke in there!). What impressed me is the number of times that Allen had to throw the ball away or try to squeze it into a small, difficult to catch window. The announcers were saying multiple times, and showed the replays, "Everybody is covered with sticky coverage". Guess what. The Chiefs are good and often had 3 WR blanketed. Against most teams, Allen is good enough to find the 1 of 3 that is sort of open and get a completion. Not against this very good team. We have to build the team not only to get into the playoffs, but also to beat KC. .. ... We do NOT have a weapon at running back. That hurts the passing game too much. It is pretty simple. We got into the playoffs and had a great season. The job now is to maintain that position AND rebuild the roster on the success so that it can also take on and beat the Chiefs This is a hell of a lot more fun than trying to stay out of the basement !!!

I wonder where the jet sweep has gone the last few games? I haven't though of whether it would have worked/not worked. I wonder.

Sorry, but I think you are ignoring something important. We are NOT and can NOT be balanced on offence without better running backs. We were playing a very good team with not major weaknesses on defence. We got into the red zone and suddenly we are trying to move the ball WITHOUT [1] stop&go and fly routes to spread the pass defense (there is a back line on the endzone), and [2] A fast player to hit holes quickly and force the defence to defined both edges of the field. Take them out of the tool kit and your options and success go way down. That is what happened.

The speed to hit the hole or outrun the defence to the corner are also involved in this. Not to be snarky, but did you see how often KC started their blocks and motion to one side (setting up blocks) and then ran to the other side, using slipped blocks to get a convoy ahead of the runner? You don't scare them with an inferior back. They have fewer ways to make mistakes.

Well we pick at #30 and #62. I would like to see some horse trading to get us two players in the 33 ->50 range, one of which would be a speedy running back.

OK. But what I see missing is that really fast RB or guy like #10, who is so fast that the defences have to worry about a big chunk from a missed tackle. More important is that all the pursuit angles and where the defence is positioned on the field become different with such a guy. .. ... .... Remember how the Bills used McKenzie to replicate Lamar Jackson in the prep to the Ravens game. We don't have that type of running threat and it changes a LOT of things.

He is attractive but does he have the speed to cleanly run away from LB and safeties?

So....... to get by the Chiefs,,,, how are you going to convince them NOT to double team our wide receivers OR to not do a straight, "ears pinned back" pass rush? The danger in playing a man-to-man pass defence is that the DB will be watching the WR and not see the ball coming and will not see the running back running downfield at all. The danger in an all out pass rush is that it leaves big gaps in the center of the line for the RB or QB. If the RB is fast and the LB's have been schemed away or are outrun, you have a big chunk of yardage. Can we bribe them to play into our hands on this?

Below is an oldy but goodie from just before the 2020 draft. I felt, and still do, that an all passing offense would not get us wins over the best teams- you lose too many threats that the offense could use and also weaken the passing game. Also, slow slightly slippery running backs are not going to get chunk yardage ever. I am very disappointed in this last loss to the Chiefs. Speed kills and we were embarrassed. Folks, wake up and smell the coffee. We have NO depth at running back. If Singletary goes down for the season or pulls a hammy for 4 games we are in a lot of hurt. Bean likes to have quality depth Bean's plan, which is the best, is to use the first few round of the draft to get a few outstanding, pro bowl quality players. NOT to get "okay" depth players Bean uses the FA to get the depth players. Lower rounds of the draft are used to move up in the first 3 rounds, or on "moon shots" on undervalued players. We now use a lot of rotation at several positions. Defensive line and TE are two examples. We might to do the same with RB I'll say point #1 again, we have NO depth at running back I have another post : How the Bills trade up in the 2020 draftwhich shows that the Bills could use their 3rd round and other picks to move up to various slots. Basically we could turn #54 into #54 R2 stay pat if somebody falls, or move up a bit as Bean has done the last two years #45 R2,R4,R5 #38 R2 R3 #33 R2 R3 R4 #31 R2 R3 2021 R2 In my view, there is no need to compromise in getting another, potentially even better, game breaking RB to work in rotation or with Singletary. There are (my opinion) 4 guys who would fit the bill and would probably be available. Shown below are the the top RB’s and where several mock drafts have them being picked. Swift Georgia 37 18 39 45 Dobbins Ohio Stat 39 28 37 32 Taylor Wisconsin 56 37 57 50 Edwards-Helain LSU 63 63 62 55 Moss Utah 91 86 139 Aikens Flordia 100 45 The first three guys are clearly the class of the position, but Edward-Helain is close behind. Moss and Aikens are good players, but a bit slower and are more power runners. I expect Swift and Dobbins to be drafted too high to have a chance at them. Taylor might drop to us or be available as a trade up at a reasonable price. Moss & Aikens might still be around with our 3rd round pick, but the expectation is that they could be adequate backups. Edward-Helain would be my target because he is the best pass catcher of the entire group and would give Allen another option on passing plays. Remember TT running wheel routes? Clyde Edwards-Helaire*, RB, LSU Height: 5-7. Weight: 207. Arm: 29. Hand: 9.63. Projected 40 Time: 4.50. Projected Round (2020): 2-3. 3/7/20: Edwards-Helaire was a dangerous runner and receiver for the Tigers in 2019, doing a lot of dirty work for their point machine offense. The junior averaged 6.6 yards per carry in 2019 for 1,414 yards with 16 touchdowns. He also had 55 receptions for 453 yards and a score. Edwards-Helaire is a tough runner with quickness, cutting ability, vision, and natural body lean. His natural receiving skills make him a potential three-down starter. (cf Walter football) the poll

Here is a post from April of this year. Remember that usually, the draft has 3 tiers of good players. 1->15= all pro types,,,, 16->50= people who you can expect to start and 50->250 a good chance to be a backup or inferior starter. this is a generalization but is about right. (An indication of this is to see how much that the "more expert than you and I" people agree on the people who are in each group.). You get what you pay for, most of the time. Moss and Singletary are where you get backups or are taking crapshoots. Please think about this: for many position players, you have a limited amount of film and such. For running backs and WR, they are out where you can see them in college and not much is missed.

OK. This is an "I told you so". I was the one who started multiple threads the last two drafts saying that we had to get a running back that would scare people and who had speed that could break off big chunks of yardage. I got mocked as an idiot because "running backs are a dime a dozen and you could pick them up from anywhere." So the Bills went with a one dimensional offense and the other team knew that they could ignore the run and just play the pass. Against most teams this worked pretty well to get wins. Today it got exploded.

"............Zimmer's amazing results included a 4.85 40-Yard Dash, a 33.5-inch Vertical Jump, a 7.01 3-Cone Drill and a 9-foot-9 Broad Jump. To top it all off, he also recorded a beastly 44 reps on the Bench Press. It's difficult to quantify exactly how impressive these numbers are, but a tool called Relative Athletic Score (RAS) might be a good start.................." OK, those posters saying he is Just a Guy are full of it. Averge Joe defensive linemen do not have those stats. Looking at Walter foot ball for the top 4 DT, we have 40 times of 5.22, 4.90, 5.20, 5.60 defensive ends 5.16 5.10 5.04 4.80 interior linebackers: 4.52, 4.54 4.79 4.63 . My point is that he is very fast for a defensive lineman and almost as fast as ILB who are 60 pounds lighter. With him and Oliver in the center, we have two penetrating defensive tackles and that is something other teams do NOT see. The defense has the advantage of moving after the o linemen get set and can be in and through the gaps and into the backfield before the o linemen can square up to them. Remember the Ravens game? The Ravens have big, slow piledriving blocking o-linemen who are good for smash mouth running game. Our interior d-line was penetrating and getting into their backfield, which closed the running lanes AND got after the QB. Do you remember the play series where the Ravens were penalized for false starts, on 2 or 3 successive plays? The reason was that they knew that they had to get the best possible jump on the hike to stop our DT. Compare Zimmer's 4.85 second speed with the top 6 offensive guards in the 2020 draft. 4.85 for Wirfs. This guy was drafted #13 overall in the draft 5.08 5.30 5.20 5.30 5.11sec. Note that there is usually only one OG drafted in the first round each year. 2019 #14,,,,2018 #6,,,,,2017 0.....2016 #28,,,,,,,2015 #28. Only 2 others drafted near this high in that time. Maybe we are on to something as an alternative to the BiG NT guy like Stare who ties up 2 o-lineman with his size and bull rush.

There. You left stuff out and I fixed it for you.

I disagree. Singletary or Moss play on every offensive snap. They pass block to protect the ball in the QB's hands, run the ball with the ball in their hands, or try to get free to catch the ball. Every play. .. .. .. Moss was drafted at #86- worth 160 draft value chart points. Singletary @ # 74 , 220 points. Add the two together and you get 380 points, so we have "invested" the equivalent of player #52 in the draft- #20 in the second round. For a player who is involved in every offensive snap. Note that the NFL does not allow us to play with 12 to use both of them at the same time. Not good enough. The draft is made up of three tiers. The first 16 players value shrinks from 3000 to 1000 points. (3X) That is stud territory. The top ~ 50 the value shrinks from 1000 to 400 points. (2.5X ) That is the place to get an NFL starter. Beyond that you are throwing darts and have very little chance of getting a GOOD starter.... ... So average the top 16 at 1400 points, average the top 50 at 720 points. We drafted 2 guys who averaged 200 points. We need to get a guy in the top 50, in the area of 720 points to have him have an effect on games. Most of the time, you get what you pay for. I like the guy who takes on two blockers. But two smaller penetrating DT can also work.

I do not think you could get anything for Moss and Singletary. They are backups anywhere else. Other teams would be better off cycling some UFA's through their system to find the same or better.

Yep. No one has to spy on the RB to cover a possible running lane,. They can catch him and not give up a chunk play. Fewer defensive eyes looking into the backfield means better pass defense. Etienne might be available with our first round pick or (after some draft position swapping to get two picks in the top 50) even with a 2nd round pick. He is 210 pounds, which isn't tiny. He could be a better pass catcher and pass blocker. I don't know if that is because they didn't waste using him that way and that he could be taught up, or if it just isn't him.

You do know that the other team plays in the same weather. We do have several advantages when there is a lot of wind or weather. [1] Allen has the best arm in the game and his fast throws mean that the ball is in the air a shorter amount of time an the wind has less effect on it. [2] Wide receivers know where they are going and when they are going to make their break. Defensive backs have to respond immedialely and have more trouble shifting their weight to change direction. So they fall down or give a bigger cushion. Note that running backs do not have this advantage as they have to quickly respond to defensive players- so there is more a wash there.

What we need in a single running back are the following: [1] He has to have the speed to get to the outside. Right now we are using WR screens and jet sweeps to get around the corner. That limits us. We would have an entire additional layer to the play book with somebody like Taylor. [2] He has to be able to pass block. We can not go the route of a little guy, regardless of his speed, and pass catching ability. Also, going with a wham type former DE (like the Ravens) reduces the options of plays as well. [3] He has to have the speed to be dangerous for quick hitters between the tackles or to slip out of the backfield al la T.Thomas to get a short dump off pass and take it far. This year, I don't see any single back for all this coming up in the draft. I'm afraid we are stuck with looking for a scat back type and/or a fullback type in the later rounds. More likely is that we get a low cost veteran who is very good in one of these catagories and okay in the rest.

I think that you are ignoring some well known facts about the nfl draft. I think that there are basically 4 tiers in the draft. [1] The first 15 or so players. Very clearly superior players that are expected to start right away and may be all pro within 2-3 years [2] The 16-50 players, who are likey to be starters by the end of their first year. [3] The 51 to 230+ rest of the draft, who might make a roster and have a decreasing chance of being a starter or rotational player [4] UFA who may be practice squad player or bottom of the roster backups Yes there are exceptions all the time. The above types are just limited by the physical and mental profile of the American population. We have drafted running backs with the 74th pick (Singletary) and 86 (Moss). They are in group 3 and are nice backup players. Sometimes you may get lucky, most of the time you get what you expect. Remember that TThomas was drafted #40 [2] but without his knee injury he would have been taken earlier than the 7th RB selected.

Baltimore has played a weak schedule recently. That will tell. Our offense will come out with some new wrinkles and tricky plans to unsettle them and cause hesitation. They have not had to respond to such this year.

Here is a very simple and very real problem. If a pass rusher beats his man, the that pass rusher has to try to tackle Jackson. Jackson is much quicker and much faster than that pass rusher. He usually dodges him and can dart around him and run in the direction the pass rusher came from. Now the pass rusher is out of the picture, Jackson is running into the gap that the rusher came from AND the beaten offensive lineman is often ahead of him to give him some protection. ... .... Yes, all this is simple and obvious but it is how Jackson turns a lunging pass rusher into a run into a gap in the defence. ... ... .... It might be better to put pressure on, make Jackson take his eyes away from downfield, make Jackson reposition and reset, and protect the gap.

Jackson is something that you can not completely control. We have to score a lot of points and try to force him to beat us with his passing. Often he is off mark. They now also have a very good and fast to-the-corner running back Dobbins. . We could have drafted him instead of Epenesa- the Ravens drafted him on the very next pick. ((((2020 Walter football take on him: J.K. Dobbins*, RB, Ohio State Height: 5-9. Weight: 210. Arm: 29.75. Hand: 9.5. Projected 40 Time: 4.50. Projected Round (2020): 2-3. 4/21/20: Dobbins averaged 6.7 yards per carry in 2019 for 2,003 yards with 21 touchdowns. He had 23 receptions for 247 yards and two touchdowns as well. Dobbins fumbled against Florida Atlantic, Penn State and Michigan. He was a tough runner for Ohio State, showing starting ability for the NFL with size, strength, the ability to run through contact, and quickness to rip off chunk runs. 8/17/19: Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry in 2018 for 1,053 yards with 10 touchdowns. He also made 26 receptions for 263 yards. Mike Weber was supposed to be the next star running back at Ohio State in 2017, but an injury slowed him down to start the season. The Buckeyes turned to Dobbins and never looked back, as the freshman dominated the competition. Dobbins averaged 7.2 yards per carry for 1,403 yards with seven touchdowns on the year. He also had 22 receptions for 135 yards and a touchdown. Dobbins has a fast first-step and is dangerous to break off long runs on any carry. This will require good setting of the edge and players aware of reverse type plays. Our outside game is limited to jet sweeps. Moss ran a 4.65, Singletary a 4.66 versus his 4.50. They have this extra weapon and will use it. I'm looking at Nagee Harris of the Tide for the 2021 draft. 4.53, 6-2 230 and a good protection blocker.