LEBills

Nice no Hochuli. KC’s record with Blakeman is 6-5 I read in the reffing thread.

In these playoffs, yes. KC was +6 in turnover differential in the regular season (same as the Ravens). The Ravens were susceptible at fumbles (7 during the regular season). This week it will need to be an interception of Mahomes who had 11 this season. Washington was only +1 in differential and will throw picks and put it on the ground. The Eagles were +11 with only 6 picks, but much like the Ravens put the ball on the ground with 9 fumbles. The Bills were +24 this year with 16 pick and 16 fumble recoveries. It is not a fluke. KC will be toughest to force into a turnover but if we get past them there will be a punch out or two vs the NFC champ

They weren’t going to win anyway, but this makes it slightly easier for the Chiefs. Oh well.

Going into the Broncos game, a lot of the circumstances and trends pointed to a pretty easy Bills win. Going into this week with the Ravens, there is trends in the Ravens favor which makes this game very much a toss up. The Bills opened as a 1.5 favorite before it was quickly bet to a ravens -1.5 line. Only six times in Lamar Jackson’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 straight up in those games. Over the last decade, teams that win the regular season showdown are 42-24 in the playoffs. Teams that win the regular season meeting by 20+ points are 10-1. Favorites in night games have won 79% of the time this season. Lamar is 1-2 in playoff night games including a past loss to the Bills. Lamar Jackson led teams are 1-1 in sub zero temperature games. It is expected to be like 8 degrees Sunday. In home games against teams with a win percentage of 66% or better, the Bills average over 31.8 PPG. Ravens are the second most penalized team in the NFL (jets are #1 of course). Carl Cheffers averages over 10 penalty calls a game. Home teams have won nearly 73% of games he has reffed this season Brandon Stephens has surrendered more yards than any other CB this season. He also had 5 PIs called against him. Marlon Humphries had 4 PIs and Nate Wiggins had 3. Carl Cheffers called 32 PIs this year. The Ravens defense is #1 in ypc against both running backs and quarterbacks this season. KC and Detroit were 2nd and 3rd best vs RBs and Den was 2nd best vs rushing QBs. The Bills beat those other three teams. Baltimore has given up the fourth most receiving yards to RBs this year. Bills have allowed the most, but Henry is not know for his pass catching. Bills are +24 in turnovers (16 ints and 16 fumble recoveries). The Ravens are +6 with 17 total takeaways. Lamar has not thrown many ints, but the Ravens have lost 7 fumbles. Bills sack differential is +25, Ravens is +30. (To editorialize a bit: very winnable game. Play our game on offense but try to add some deep shots to Keon and Amari. Get one takeaway on defense and let the Ravens shoot themselves in the foot with penalties).

Sam Darnold is a poor man’s Andy Dalton. Can’t play in prime time, same number and hair color lol

The good news is that the teams with openings this year are crappy situations. Hopefully Brady has learned how important the organization from top down is important to his success as a HC. He was an OC in Carolina before he was here. He has seen what having no QB and a bad owner does to a HCs job security.

The crowd sounds like it’s in minnesota anyway lol

Patrick Surtain is considered the best CB in the league and he was on Cooper every time I noticed Coop

A lot will be made of Josh vs Lamar this week. But Cook outperforming Henry will be the key to a Bills win.

McD had his hat on all game, maybe there was a toupee underneath? We will never know

I think Vrabel is a good coach, but Kraft is an overrated, cheap owner and this isn’t the AFC South where the best QB in the division was Deshaun Watson Vrabels entire tenure. I’d be pretty surprised if they finished ahead of the Bills in the division for as long as Josh is playing, though certainly will be more resistance than recent Pats teams.

Best thing Steelers could do is trade Tomlin like the Saints did with Peyton. Tomlin is a good coach that can beat enough scrub teams to get a winning record, but once they make the playoffs the talent gap is too great. Reset, get a rookie QB and a young head coach and take your lumps in the regular season so hopefully you can start winning in the post season again.

2 seeds are 7-1 (lol cowboys) against 7 seeds all time McDermott is 8-0 coming off a bye (not technically a bye but as close to one as you get) Sean McDermott is 13-4 vs rookie QBs including 2-0 in the playoffs Only 12 rookie QBs all time have won at least 1 playoff game. Ever. and you really have to go back to 2009 to find one (Mark Sanchez) who pulled an upset.( John Wolford gets credited with a playoff win but left the game after 6 passes and Jared Goff led the Rams over the Seahawks. Russ Wilson also beat Washington in the game that RG3 tore up his knee.) The Broncos only beat 1 team that ended the year with a winning record (TB week 3, not counting the Chiefs scrubs). The Broncos were 4-5 on the road. They have scored 21.4 PPG and given up 21.3 PPG on the road. The Bills are 8-0 at home and average 34.3 PPG and allow 17.6 PPG at home The Broncos blitz the 4th highest rate in the NFL (and Vance Joseph defenses are 2-0 against Josh). But this year against the blitz, Josh has 16 TD passes and only one interception, as well as a 123.2 passer rating. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense is ranked 20th in DVOA against zone defenses. Obviously you have to play the game, and that egg shaped ball bounces weird sometimes, but we should feel pretty good going into Sunday.

Sad for Josh who deserves the MVP But if he indeed doesn’t get it, only Mahomes and his contract with the devil has won both MVP and the Super Bowl in the same year since 1999 so I’m a bit relieved there.

If I was Beane and McDermott I would stop giving Dunne access. But he seems to still have ties to players and the org, so I guess they are trying to control the narrative rather than letting him spew whatever deranged words will generate headlines.

Carolina had both Baker and Darnold on their roster at the same time lol Being a good QB is a combination of talent and being in a good organization

yes, especially with no Dawkins

I’d pay him similar to what Saquon got this off season. Cook is very efficient with his touches averaging 5 ypc for his career. He is also just good enough as a receiver to keep the offense multidimensional when he is on the field. He is a bit like Aaron Jones who has been a good back his entire career and has been effective in his year 29 season. Paying him a 4 year contract I think would be good. Additionally, if we are going to make a Super Bowl run this year, it will be on the backs of Josh and Cook - our two best offensive skill players As for the tweet, Dalvins trying to tweet it into existence. Doubt the Bills have approached Cook at all in season about an extension.

Honestly I’m excited to watch all the young guys play, feels kinda like preseason. Javon Soloman though is #1 for me. Haven’t been able to focus on his limited snaps over the past weeks. Against a bad Pats OL I think he could have great day.

One of the happiest days of my life. Here is an excellent long form video by Secret Base which is a great sports YouTube channel. It dives into how the Ravens and Bengals got to that moment, the long shot odds of the 4th and 12 play happening and at about 13 minutes in the aftermath that ensued for the Bills, fans, and charities.

Quintin Morris doesn’t get many touchdowns but all of them are bangers including this one this year

Yea a bengals, ravens, chiefs gauntlet would be hard to overcome. Though the Bengals are still long shots to get that 7 seed, especially now that the Broncos will likely get some Chiefs backups in week 18.

Our top receiver is Shakir who averages 57 yards per game Cooper is 4th on the team at 34 yards per game We have 10 players who average over 12 yards receiving per game The offense spreads the ball around a ton. As long as Cooper makes splash plays like he did vs KC it was a great investment. As for upcoming years, I agree I would not pay a ton of money for him but would welcome him back at like a Samuel level contract.

I’ve seen enough bumped Josh Allen elbows this year that I will be very happy if we know the two seed is set for us on Wednesday and we can rest any starters we want against the scrub jets and pats. One seed would be the best but getting two weeks off and the two seed sounds good too.

All epic teams, Josh should be MVP, hopefully we will be the first of this list to win a Super Bowl