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Reader

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Posts posted by Reader

  1. 3 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

     

    Be interesting to see if defenses are starting to key in on the short game sitting on routes where Brown and Beasley excel, which may have taken players out of the box allowing to Gore to get some nice runs up the middle.  

     

    Which is exactly the type of play where Allen was able to find Knox. Maybe as he continues to improve he will find those 2nd options faster.

  2. 41 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

     

    Lol, I love that almost all my comments are in direct response to the same few people commenting at me and who won’t let this go.  So responding back to others comments makes it a crusade?  Got it.  Heaven forbid someone engage back on a message board.

     

    Maybe if the same few people discussed Zay with other people instead of me it wouldn’t require me to respond nor would it seem like a crusade?  I mean Zay has LOTS of critics on this board, yet none of them are getting their exact same opinion challenged.

     

    Sorry, it’s not a crusade...y’all trying to make it that though.  

     

    To be fair, I think/hope there are some of us who are ready to disagree with anyone on the Zay sucks side, but I imagine a certain few are most vocal and direct their ire towards you. I still think Zay is like Josh Reed and is a useful asset to this team.

  3. 54 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

     

    Maybe you're right.  I just think that these guys who have been "The Man" ever since Pop Warner have a hard time when they flame out spectacularly.  What will make it worse for him is that he will know that he never really got a fair chance to succeed and that will be the thing that eats at him more than anything.  It's one thing to lose, it's another thing to be cheated.  I think it's a lot harder to let those ones go.

     

    I don't know, I mean with these athletes as soon as they have a narrative take place it is hard to shake it. Rosen was drafted and said he was going to make the 9 teams ahead of him regret it. Cocky, right? A year later Arizona fans on Reddit are talking about how much it sucks for Rosen and how during his time with Arizona Rosen embraced the community and was considered a good teammate.

     

    When he was traded to the Dolphins his response was, "Well, it's not like I am some child soldier in Darfur. I've had it pretty good. I agree with you, it sucks for him, but maybe if we can justify not liking him then we don't have to feel that way. 

  4. Hey TBD community. I was wondering if I could get your opinions/advice.

     

    Background, I work an online position and as such have the ability to live anywhere in the United States. My wife currently is stay at home with our 15 month old daughter. We both really like having her not work and we're thinking of moving from California (we're both native Californian's so we have a lot to learn about weather) possibly to the east coast. I was curious as to your thoughts as to where might be good places to look into.

     

    We're looking for somewhere that stays relatively cool by East Coast standards and prefer to be near water. We're homebodies and don't need to be in a major city either.

  5. 7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

     

    After hearing Gunner's reply about the evaluation process (which is along the lines of what I figured) you could determine that the results is a loose (generic if 

    you will) scoring of the players effectiveness.

    It seems to me IF the scoring is done that way having the result reflecting a specific number with a decimal place is a bit conflicting.

    To say it another way, if you are examining in generalities the score should be in generalities.

    I would think now, PFF would be better off scoring both Edmunds and Oliver as a B+ (or whatever the 78-80 score equates to).

     

    The decimal point score implies exactness which like Gunner said, is not the way the evaluation is done.

     

    PFF's ratings are weird. Fwiw, I think both of them are around a B+. I think for them 60-65 is average, 65-75 is good, 75-85 is great, and 85+ is elite. If average is a C, I'm not exactly sure about the breakdown, but B+ would be my guess.

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  6. 6 minutes ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

    The 90% chance would be based on a gaussian distribution which I doubt is valid. In fact I would expect due to the subjective nature of the analisis a well known players distribution would be significantly different from some unknown player entirely due to bias. Oldmanfan does a nice job of highlighting the enormity of pitfalls involved even with trained evaluators. 

     

    I appreciate the response and I think you are right. I guess for me it's trying to find that balance of PFF is laughable to PFF is gospel and I guess I err on the side of the latter in an attempt to balance how I feel most of the board leans towards the former.

  7. 10 minutes ago, RememberTheRockpile said:

    Your point is statistically wrong. The point of margin of error is because the mean is NOT definitive. If I tell you I have a basket of 50 apples that is definitive. If I tell you I have a basked of 50 apples +/- 5 apples I am telling you that the number of apples is between 45 and 55 which is not definitive. By presenting just one number without a margin of error they are implying the number is definitive. Oh they can claim it isn't "definitive" but without also providing the margin of error the number they provide is essentially useless.

     

    For example this week PFF rated:

    Ed Oliver 80.3 
    Tremaine Edmunds 78.2

     

    If the error margin is +/- 2 points then both players would be statistically tied. One player cannot be said to rate higher than the other because the margin of error overlaps. The margin of error is an admission that the numbers are NOT definitive but the true value lies someplace in between with some level of confidence. 

     

    For the sake of argument from a mathematical perspective. Saying there is an error of +/- 2 doesn't invalidate a difference between Oliver and Edmunds. If we pretend to ignore standard deviations beyond the first then the only way they are even would be if Oliver averages a -1 and Edmunds a +1. (Of course Oliver -2 and Edmunds 0 also works/all the other possibilities) It has been a while since I took statistics so I'm a little rusty, but I think that would mean there is about a 90% chance Oliver played better and while the ratings are still fallible, it is significant.

    24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

     

    Each game is analysed by a lead analyst and then quality control checked before initial grades are applied and then re-watched and re-graded again when the all22 is available is my understanding.

     

    Individuals are not judged on who they were up against or on how critical a play is in the game. They are some of the reasons I say, repeatedly, it is imperfect as a basis for any definitive determinations. You have to use it appropriately. It is a tool in the toolbox when properly applied. 

     

    I have been a critic of plenty of its individual outcomes over the years. Its grading system led to far too much credit being given to Tyrod Taylor for example and last season Tre White ranked relatively average because it is hard to get the elite coverage grades when nobody throws your way any more. That is where nuance and the need for an experienced eye come into play in my mind. But it doesn't invalidate everything PFF do.

     

    Yeah, PFF was way too complimentary of Tyrod and didn't say a word when he bombed in Cleveland proving us right and them wrong. That being said, and I think you and I are in agreement here. It is useful to see their grades for players that we're not watching. People can say the oline had a good game, but did they? I wasn't watching them, I was watching Allen and I have no idea how well Spain picked up a stunt play after play.

  8. Does anyone else get the ratings for the Bills players for free? I'm not sure why, I am not a paid member but if I click on roster, the player and then 2019 I am able to see what their grades are after the first game. I can't see any specifics, but the overall grade comes up. Note names are not in order and I've lumped offense and defense separately. Some interesting tidbits. Since I don't pay for PFF I don't know the breakdown of players grade. PFF claimed Allen did well last year only because of his running grade, I wonder if he did better as a passer yesterday. Two, before you all get the pitchworks, remember PFF is just a metric and they are wrong a lot. Remember, when they championed Tyrod for three years before he had a performance with the Browns that would have made EJ blush? If Josh and the offense settles down, they'll prove them wrong sooner than later. Keep in mind, we did win, but we're going to need more than 17 points to beat most teams.

     

    Elite:

    Sweeny!!!

     

    Great:

    Brown

     

    Oliver

    Edmunds

    Murphy

     

    Good:

    Morse

    Zay

     

    Star

    Shaq

    Lorax

    Horrible Harry

    Poyer

    White

     

    Average:

    Dawkins

    Feliciano

     

    Milano

    Hyde

    T. Johnson

     

    Poor:

    Allen

    Singletary

    Gore

    Beasley

    Nsekhe (Almost Average)

    Ford

    Spain

     

    D. Johnson

    Phillips

    Neal

    Wallace

     

    Bad:

    Knox (Technically slightly above bad, but at least 5 points below all other offensive players)

     

    Hughes???

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