Chuck Wagon

Not to mention he wasn't pursued by any of the teams offering a starting job on Day 1 of FA and signed here for backup money after all the seats were full.

I think we have enough ammo, we just aren't going to put it all out there until we know who is on the board.

Unless you are equally sold on 2 guys, you can't with Cleveland there. I speculated in the other thread, but I think Cleveland is playing coy on Darnold, they really want the Giants to trade out so they know they can take their QB (I assume Darnold at 1) and get Chubb or Barkley, which ever guy they covet, at 4.

Just my hunch, but I think Gettleman really likes Darnold because he knows that's the guy #1 on Beane's board and the guy who'll fetch the whole package. I think the Giants would love nothing more than take a whole heap of draft picks and leave the Jets with the #3 choice at QB.

I think people on the Browns board are willing to believe anything that's not "we are taking Josh Allen #1". Since it's reckless speculation time anyway, here we go. 1) I think the Browns have a position player they REALLY like, either Chubb or Barkley 2) I think they are worried the Giants like the same player and will take them #2 3) They really want someone to trade into #2 that's going to take a QB so they know they are free and clear on getting their guy #4 then they turn their card in on their top QB at 1 4) The Bills aren't willing to put the whole package on the table until they know who is on the board and by the same token the Giants know they can get more when it's clear who is on the board. 5) I'm convinced the Giants - Darnold is smoke, I think it's pretty clear the Jets like Baker, the Browns like Darnold and they want to get the position player at 4 but the Giants are playing back on the Browns saying "you better take Darnold 1 if you want him, don't think we are locked into the position player, Darnold could go without a trade" Because of all that, I think everything's going to stay frozen up until the Browns are forced to make their pick, either they take the position player they really want at 1 and live with what happens at QB at 4 or they take the QB at 1 and see if their guy falls.

You missed the point. They grabbed the 1st that was available.

Schefter, Rapaport, LaCanfora, Jeremiah, Evan Silva, Peter King, etc: "I'm hearing a lot of buzz about Josh Allen in Cleveland" TSW: "No way, he's garbage, should go in the 4th round total smokescreen" Some random dude on a message board claiming to have an in from a scout who knows he's getting fired: "They are going to take Chubb #1 or Baker" TSW: "Yeah see, that makes total sense"

Can't agree more. People are going to cling to their narratives despite any evidence presented. Personally I think Rosen would be an amazing fit for our team, I think his personality meshes great with McDermott / Beane, a smart guy who learns from past mistakes and plays it pretty cool. He seems he really wants to beat Brady at everything and would relish going head to head twice a year. The way he's been talking about Brady recently makes me think he's go a pretty good idea he'll be in the AFC East.

I still tend to believe they are going with Allen at #1. I think they view Allen as having the highest ceiling and are supremely overconfident in their abilities to guide him to reach it. Nothing has changed, our ability to get one of the top 4 is solely dependent on the Giants and Broncos plans and Cleveland's willingness to give up one of the "blue chip" position players. There's a very real scenario we are completely locked out as it stands and very real scenarios where a guy we are very happy with falls to a minimal price in a trade up.

It's not worth getting into it, but look up why Kaepernick and other players decided to start kneeling over previously sitting for the anthem and tell me he's disrespecting the military.

Over the last 20 years, what's there been to defend?

I'm pretty sure it's been addressed several times, but the trade offer from Houston wasn't there. I believe what's been reported was Houston was fine with either Mahomes or Watson and didn't call to trade up until Mahomes was off the board. The deal with KC for Mahomes was put in place before the draft, contingent on Mahomes being on the board and there were strong rumblings the Saints would be taking Mahomes at 11. Houston had the year from hell, the hurricane, Watson showing potential then getting hurt, Watt getting hurt, Fuller missed a big chunk of the year, the talent on their team was in no way "4th overall pick" level and one would have thought at this point last year they were in a much more winnable division than KC. It's just not in any way realistic to play hindsight over which team. As for the original question, I happen to believe Mahomes would be right with Lamar Jackson in terms of prospects. I think Jackson is the guy that's really getting overshined with the other prospects, there's been years recently where he would shine as the top guy but he's an afterthought. Mahomes had/has mechanical issues that really scared teams.

The same people who think he's just waiting to become a franchise QB wouldn't know a thing about him if his name was Chad Smith.

Browns....

There's people here who wanted to draft Chad Kelly in round 3 last year, what do you expect?

The Bengals took 3 linebackers.

No. The belief is there's not much difference between 22 and 49. There's been quotes there's ~60-70 "starters" in the draft but ~20 "1st rounders".

But devils advocate says if you are the Giants or the Browns and you trade down from 1/2/4, you are going to be sitting on more than enough later picks to move up to get one of those "20" 1st rounders. You turn 1 "1st rounder" into 2 and have more picks beyond that.

I agree, but you are dealing with uncertainty. There are a couple pivot points in the draft. I think 8 is one, where it only takes 1 guy sneaking in and you are looking at one of the 3 "blue chip" position players or one of the 4 QBs, otherwise you are looking at the same tier as 12. 22 certainly feels right about another one, where it only takes 1 or 2 guys sneaking in and you feel very good about the pick, but if everything falls like it should you are basically taking the same level guy as pick ~45. Unless the Giants are going QB (and I'm convinced they are committed enough to Eli and intrigued enough by Webb they are willing to pass), I don't think they are going to pass up 5 or 6 day 1/2 picks regardless of how the tiers fall.

I speculated a couple of days ago that it may be better to move up from 22 into the low teens if it's possible at all. I don't think pick 12 vs ~7 is the problem, I think it's the other picks. It also gives some perspective on the Cordy Glenn trade, the Bills did great to move from 21 into the 2nd level of prospects by giving up a guy who seemingly had checked out when the ink was dry on his deal. At 12 you know you are getting one of Ward / Edmonds / Smith / Fitzpatrick / James, it drops off quick after that.

I'm waiting for the Browns to take Chubb #1 and Lamar Jackson #4. That's the "Browns" move.

Browns are going to Brown. Haslam hasn't changed despite the minds he brings in.

Rudolph is vastly overrated here. I wouldn't be surprised to see White or Lauletta go in front of him. This years Bryce Petty - Connor Cook - Davis Webb who supposedly has first round buzz then goes in round 3 or 4.

It may sound stupid, but one of my biggest reasons for wanting to trade up prior to the draft outside of the relief of knowing we got there, is this guy is going to come in viewed as the current and future face of the franchise immediately, I really don't want this moment:

My favorite part of Cowherd is Lebatard having inebriated celebrities pick the same games Cowherd picks as his locks. A couple of years ago Big Boi made the picks high as a kite weekly and beat Cowherd handily over 8 weeks or so.