Chuck Wagon

We are getting a QB.

You are assume McBeane would be willing to pick at 1 then take the next 100 picks off. I think if they do make the move to 1 they'll want to plug in as many pieces on offense as possible to build an infrastructure to allow a QB to succeed. I agree with you, I'd rather have the premium pick, but I think it would be a deal breaker for Cleveland and I don't know our guys wouldn't value the depth of picks.

Congrats! Mine is due in mid May, no early arrivals!

If Allen - Darnold - Mayfield go 1-2-3, Barkley goes 4, Chubb goes 5 and Indy trades Rosen to the Cardinals / Dolphins / Chargers just to spite the Pats.

They take Allen anyway, the Giants take Darnold, the Jets take Baker and we are left hoping the Broncos don't take Rosen, who we may not even want. In my mind the 2019 1st is the difference between Darnold and over drafting Rudolph. It's a necessary concession.

You don't move a $1 bill for a whole bunch of nickles and dimes.

I don't think there's any way they can get to 1 without giving up the 2019 1st. They can certainly throw picks at it to equal value, but looking at how Cleveland stands I don't think there's any way they move without that premium asset. We hold cards in terms to value, but they own the pick, if the Giants Darnold interest is legit, we are paying their price.

When people will pay up for Darnold and you own pick #4, it's bad just bad business to take Allen #1.

12 / 22 / 2019 1st is the cleanest deal and is basically an equal value for 1.

I don't think the Browns necessary need or even want all those lower picks and I don't think Beane wants our draft to be over after pick 1. I think we'll pony up the 2019 1st and keep our later picks.

Thats my point. We trade up to 1, the Giants can stop dreaming about Darnold and move back to 4 to get Barkley, who they know will be on the board, the Browns don't risk losing their guy to the Jets. Basically the Browns and Bills tell the Giants "this deal is happening, it's up to you if you want to pick up some of the value out of it". I contend Darnold is the only guy we are willing the sell the farm to get. If the Browns are split or even don't want him, it's bad business not to sell him.

Even if they are split between Darnold and Allen, it makes too much sense to sell the guy someone really wants at 1 vs selling the last guy left at 4.

I think the hold up on our deal with the Giants is both liking Darnold. If we deal above them that forces their hand.

Could make some sense where there's been Allen to the Giants buzz. Giants trying to bluff the Browns "see we might take your guy", don't trade Darnold.

If the Browns say "we can live with Allen or Darnold" it makes all the sense in the world to sell Darnold at apex value, especially holding pick 4 where one can reasonably assume Allen is still there. The Browns tell the Giants "we are trading Darnold, so he's out of play for you, why not play ball and pick up some value to still get Barkley and we jump the Jets".

12 going to the Giants. 12 & 22, 2 1sts for Beckham.

I think they'd love to flip Gordon when he holds value and Coleman hasn't shown near enough to be considered part of the long term answer. After dealing with Beckham, Gordon may look like a minor inconvenience to the Giants.

Gordon (or Coleman) could be part of the deal, both us and the Giants could certainly use help at WR. They've been the team most consistently linked to Beckham, he's obviously tight with Landry and they employ his college position coach. I don't think Gordon or Coleman has any impact on what Dorsey & co are going to do with the team.

Time to get really funky: Bills get 1 Browns get 2 / Odell / Bills 19 1st Giants get 4 / 12 / 22 Giants get their 2 1sts price for Odell and Barkley at 4 instead of 2. Brown get the same player at 2 they want at 1 and Odell & 2019 1st. We get Darnold, the #1 guy on our board.

I think Darnold is the only guy we give up the whole enchilada to get. If the Browns have moved to Allen, it's a win-win-win.

That would imply we go to 2....or the rumored Browns / Bills / Giants 3 way dance where we go to 1.

There's been several insinuations that Denver and Indy are both VERY interested in moving down. I don't think we go to 5 or 6 without knowing we can go higher, or unless we know who is there. I know the Giants have always been the rumored team. What if Denver is willing to go to 12 and Cleveland is willing to go 1 to 5 knowing they'll get one of the QBs and Chubb or Barkley and we go get Darnold?

If the Colts want to trade down, why aren't we getting #6 right now? We can then sell the Giants they are getting one of Barkley / Nelson / Chubb at #6 as part of a deal to #2. They knew moving to 6 would open up another deal back and the Jets gave them a sweet heart deal.

I didn't intend a direct comparison by any means, just the sense the negative narrative buzz around his personality needed to be addressed by a PR rep and a glowing ESPN profile.

I totally believe Rosen sliding though. The ESPN piece really seemed like an agent / pr person saying "you are starting to turn into the "Manziel" of this draft, we need to get out there and flip the narratives."