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Everything posted by Chuck Wagon
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This is just flat out wrong. People who solely make the decision on analytics act like Allen is just a big dude spraying fastballs all over the field that just happen to occasionally hit WRs. Wyoming was a bad football team who won a bowl game because of Allen. I certainly recognize there's a place for analytics, but people who solely look at the numbers are the same type who claim JT Barrett was a good QB because Jalin Marshall took 3 pop passes 65 yards each to the house. There's context in every number. The reality is no one knows for sure how the QBs would have performed if Allen spent the last 3 years at Oklahoma and Baker had spent them at Wyoming.
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There's a massive difference between the way guys like Silva (works for a smaller website, will never work for a team) and guys like Bucky Brooks / Jeremiah / Louis Riddick (have worked for teams) provide analysis. Silva lives in the "hot take" culture and needs to drive clicks, so he makes aggressive stances. It's done so places like here will say "look what this moron said about our team". The guys who have worked for the teams and have been in the draft rooms understand how hard this process actually is and it's a little foolish to take a wild stance on a player or organization because the reality is no one knows how it's going to turn out for sure. They also aren't going to trash teams because they want to keep the door open for a potential return. Silva is trying to make a living and knows he never needs to sit with a guy like Beane in a job interview. Gruden took a lot of heat because he was too nice to everyone because he knew he wanted to return to coaching. On the flip side Collinsworth took a lot of heat for a long time for being too critical. It soured relationships for him and he's had to pull way back in recent years because he was losing info he needed to get. Guys like Schefter and Rapaport are never going to trash a team because the relationship is important. The relationship means nothing to Silva, he's never going to break news, so he needs to be "hot takey" and aggressive to drive traffic.
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I know he didn't and I don't believe he would tell his staff to do that. I just find Clark and Mays to be VERY condescending in their takes. They act like Allen belongs no where near a NFL roster. Lombardi is the only one on staff who has ever been near a team and even he just rode his name and Belichick to his success. If you listen to him, he was pounding the table for every All Pro available at every draft pick from any organization he's been involved with but was just ignored.
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Even if someone can't get over the selection of Allen, we still got a guy in Edmunds who could very well prove to be well worth a 1st this year and the rookie salary structure has allowed teams who draft a bust QB to take another one much quicker than in years past.
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I take anything about the Bills on the Ringer with a MASSIVE grain of salt. The boss is a Pats fan boy who loves to make jokes about the Bills at every turn. Personally I think a QB who has enough athleticism to keep defenses honest on RPOs, a big body to keep plays alive and a big arm to rip off chunk plays is the modern NFL. The reality is with any QB prospect, but especially these QBs, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. One person can see Allen as being in the mold of Cam / Wentz / Big Ben / Luck. Another just sees Ryan Mallet or EJ.
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I'm not sure there's anyone who has been more consistently wrong through this whole thing than Allbright. Seems pretty clear he's just a shill who'll say anything teams want to try to climb the ladder. If this was Schefter or Rapaport, I'd actually believe it. I think Darnold was our #1. I thought the exact same thing when I saw the pick. Nah. Sims loves Allen too. Aikman loves Rosen because he's a UCLA guy. Guys who've actually played or scouted love Allen, the thought being even at his floor he's a passable NFL QB but at his ceiling he's one of the best in the league. As Kevin Durant would say, it's the "Blog Boys" who love Rosen.
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The likely reality is all of these guys are very good, but flawed prospects. I think you can make a case for mitigating any of the flaws making any of the 4 a clear #1. If Baker was 2 inches taller and had just slightly less "swagger" it could swing him. If Darnold turned the ball over just a little less and lived up to USC's playoff expectations. If Rosen had just slightly less "Rosen" in his personality and didn't have quite the concussion concerns. If Allen had matriculated to a bigger school and performed well. Any of those things swing any of the guys to a "clear #1". I've said through the whole process I would be ok with any of the four and the reality was the 4th guy being so close to the 1st was a good thing that was being spun to a negative. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if any of the 4 turned out the best and any of the 4 were a bust. After the barrage of "experts" from 3rd world websites raking us over the coals, I was pretty refreshed to hear Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks take on our draft. They said well run organizations end up with draft classes full of specific players that fit an overarching culture of an organization. We want big bodied workers with a blue collar approach. Our picks fit that theme. On the flip side they said you can look at classes of poorly run organizations and it's usually just players evaluated for those spots but who don't have much in common with each other.
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To be honest, I have no clue. I would like to think no the tape and interviews say everything, but these guys are human and different factors come into play. It's really difficult to say how much each piece of information has on the process. I think Lamar is an interesting case study. I would like to believe his decision to hire his mom as an agent had no impact on this draft standing, but I think the more likely reality is teams saw it as questionable decision making on his part and a guy who very likely could have gone in the teens had he played the process right fell to the last pick of the first round. I will say, from what's been reported about the Browns pick of Baker over Darnold, most in the organization had Darnold as the clear #1 when the season ended and something flipped in the pre-draft process. IMO if Rosen / Darnold / Allen / Baker / Jackson had all entered the 2017 draft, Baker would have been the 8th QB picked. The Browns passed on all those guys this year and last year plus Wentz. It's bad enough we'll always be looking at Allen vs Rosen / Mahomes / Watson.
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I get it. The Browns made a classic Browns pick and took Baker over Darnold, who they admitted they had #1 for most of the year (like most everyone) then flipped to Baker because of some made up word. Now they have to sell Baker over Wentz / Watson / Darnold to a fanbase that already doesn't trust them. Talking about Rosen and Allen is just unprofessional IMO. I could never imagine Beane or anyone in his FO basically saying "Rosen is a brat and Jackson can't hit a barn".
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Possibilities to add more weapons...
Chuck Wagon replied to elltrain22's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Beane just said yesterday he knows they need to add more skill talent and will be exploring areas to do that. -
Did Beane know Chargers wanted Edmunds at 17?
Chuck Wagon replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I read about these teams doing so many mock simulations then having something happen they never could have predicted. Seems like they should wise up and have a drunk person make the draft picks for the Raiders and Browns in the simulations. -
Interesting quote from MMQB, possibly in reference to Bills
Chuck Wagon replied to Logic's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think the Giants wanted to trade down and still get Barkley and the Browns wanted to trade down and still get Ward. There just wasn't any way to put it all together. I think Darnold was our #1 and we tried to get him, but since it couldn't happen we were happy to not give up nearly as much and roll the dice on Allen. -
Browns media / FO putting the spin cycle hard on Baker vs Darnold. MCK had a headline that “half the teams in the league had Baker #1”. Turns out she talked to 12 teams, supposedly 4 told her they had Baker #1 and she had a hunch 2 others did too. This is exactly the thing I can’t stand about the Browns org. If any organization should be quiet and humble it’s the Browns. Yet they get a hint of success and they thump their chest and take credit for inventing football.
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Cam Newton scouting report compares to Josh Allen
Chuck Wagon replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Really? Rookie Cam had Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, and Williams / Stewart. That's ALL. I don't think Shady / Clay / Benjamin is THAT far off what Cam was working with. -
Cam Newton scouting report compares to Josh Allen
Chuck Wagon replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
IMO if Allen had cleaned up the accuracy just a little bit and played (and performed well) at a "football factory" school, he'd be the clear #1 pick this year. -
Start Allen from Day 1/ QB competition
Chuck Wagon replied to BuffaloBud420's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Media people with an actual playing / scouting background love the Allen pick. Nerds behind a computer who think every game is played in a climate controlled dome love Rosen. Oh well. -
I've come around on Allen because he fits the culture of the team perfectly. I just don't think Rosen would have been happy here, I worry he could have potentially walked away early or end up with a messy tag/FA situation down the line. I also think people are underselling the things Allen can do well. Ultimately I just wanted one of the big 4 QBs. To accomplish that while also getting a strong 1st in Edmunds and not touching the 2019 picks was my dream scenario.
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Outside of White, I think the defense truly was an example of the "sum is better than the parts". There's just not all that much individual talent that jumps off the page at you, but when they all play together it's a strong bunch. On offense, god forbid if Shady got hurt we would have no prayer. The biggest thing, I think we have buy in on "the process" across the roster. Guys give it their all and believe in what's happening. That goes a long way towards overcoming talent deficiencies. But this team has lost a ton of individual talent since McBeane arrived, the problem was that talent played like individuals.